Buffalo Bills Season's End: The Off-Seasons Starts Now

[Taro Tsujimoto]

 

[stealth1]

Five games equates to roughly a third of the season. That's not inflating ****.

When Miami put up 70 against the Broncos, that's inflating. When Oakland (eff that Vegas nonsense) put up 63 against the Chargers, that's inflating.

There's a difference.

(Quick disclaimer: if I swear, it's not to attack you or anyone else here. I just work in manufacturing where companies pay by GPA... and they don't pay much.)

That means 2/3 of the season their offense was just average. When you watch them compared to the other top offenses in the league, the Bills offense has more drives that do nothing. You watch Baltimore, Detroit, and San Francisco, their offense moves down the field with ease multiple times a game.

 

[Der Jaeger]

I will be shocked if Michigan wins. Alabama has so many athletes that I think Michigan will need to be nearly perfect to win. And they already are making potentially game changing mistakes (punt muff, personal foul).

 

[Waterfowlist]

That means 2/3 of the season their offense was just average. When you watch them compared to the other top offenses in the league, the Bills offense has more drives that do nothing. You watch Baltimore, Detroit, and San Francisco, their offense moves down the field with ease multiple times a game.

Only in your head is this reality. Buffalo is 5th in points per drive in the NFL.

There is literally nothing to say in response to this absurdity. The bills have a top 5 offense in pretty much any way you can evaluate it. They’ve been remarkably consistent with about 350 yards of offense per game. They have 1 game with less than 295 yards offense. The Baltimore team you speak of has 2 such games. 49ers have one of those games.

This is the NFL. Even the best offenses get shut down some weeks.

 

[Waterfowlist]

To further illustrate the point:

Buffalo scores a TD on 28.4% of their drives
Baltimore scores a TD on 26.3% of their drives

Buffalo averages 32 yards per drive
Baltimore averages 39 yards per drive

Miami and 49ers are both a touch better than the bills in all those categories, but it is very minor.

The bills have a great offense and a great defense.

 

[buffa dud]

That means 2/3 of the season their offense was just average. When you watch them compared to the other top offenses in the league, the Bills offense has more drives that do nothing. You watch Baltimore, Detroit, and San Francisco, their offense moves down the field with ease multiple times a game.

Are you watching the highlights? Because the Bills have the fourth most first downs in the entire league. They have the best third down conversion rate, and the fourth best fourth down conversion rate. The Bills have the sixth most drives that end in points, and the sixth most offensive touch downs scored. They have the second best red zone conversion rate. By all appreciable metrics, they're a top five offense. And in a season in which the offensive coordinator was fired for holding the team's offense back.

 

[buffa dud]

Only in your head is this reality. Buffalo is 5th in points per drive in the NFL.

There is literally nothing to say in response to this absurdity. The bills have a top 5 offense in pretty much any way you can evaluate it. They’ve been remarkably consistent with about 350 yards of offense per game. They have 1 game with less than 295 yards offense. The Baltimore team you speak of has 2 such games. 49ers have one of those games.

This is the NFL. Even the best offenses get shut down some weeks.

Especially when they're playing against great defenses. And as much love as both Mahomes and Burrow get, the defensive coordinators of the Chiefs and Bengals are some of the best in the business. Same as McDermott. Same as Belichick. Same as Tomlin. Same as Saleh.

 

[buffa dud]

Wonder how many times McDaniel's needs to get bit before he learns.

 

[stealth1]

This video is good example of the issues with the offense. The analytics and stats say they are good but watching this video show the issues they have.

 

[Mike McDermott]

I will be shocked if Michigan wins. Alabama has so many athletes that I think Michigan will need to be nearly perfect to win. And they already are making potentially game changing mistakes (punt muff, personal foul).

 

[Der Jaeger]

I’m very surprised. Alabama has a way more athletic team, on a roll after beating Georgia, and Milroe was playing so well.

I had no rooting interest, but really surprised Alabama lost.

 

[misterchainsaw]

Michigan would have won by two scores if not for the distinct difference in special teams. But they pulled it out.

 

[Mike McDermott]

I’m very surprised. Alabama has a way more athletic team, on a roll after beating Georgia, and Milroe was playing so well.

I had no rooting interest, but really surprised Alabama lost.

I knew it was going to be a tough, hard fought game going in. I wouldn’t have been surprised either way. I was nervous the way it started and how the 2nd half was going until late but man did they turn it on when they had to.

 

[Der Jaeger]

Michigan would have won by two scores if not for the distinct difference in special teams. But they pulled it out.

And if Alabama’s center could snap, they might have had some different drive outcomes. Alabama dominated the second half until Michigan’s last drive and OT.

I knew it was going to be a tough, hard fought game going in. I wouldn’t have been surprised either way. I was nervous the way it started and how the 2nd half was going until late but man did they turn it on when they had to.

I thought Alabama was going to grind out the second half. But they had the low snaps drive, and just couldn’t finish.

 

[Sabresfansince1980]

Happy for the result. Tired of SEC all the damn time.

 

[Husko]

Especially when they're playing against great defenses. And as much love as both Mahomes and Burrow get, the defensive coordinators of the Chiefs and Bengals are some of the best in the business. Same as McDermott. Same as Belichick. Same as Tomlin. Same as Saleh.

Maybe he is. But if the Bills had the sort of playoff defensive outcomes the Bengals and Chiefs have had the last few years, Allen would have a ring by now.

 

[Willgamesh]

Maybe he is. But if the Bills had the sort of playoff defensive outcomes the Bengals and Chiefs have had the last few years, Allen would have a ring by now.

McDermott wasn't the DC then. And imagine our D now with Tre and Milano.

 

[misterchainsaw]

And if Alabama’s center could snap, they might have had some different drive outcomes. Alabama dominated the second half until Michigan’s last drive and OT.

I thought Alabama was going to grind out the second half. But they had the low snaps drive, and just couldn’t finish.

Dominated is a little strong. They kicked one long FG and scored one TD, while Michigan missed a shorter FG. They were better than Michigan for much of the 2nd half, but not really by much. And then Michigan scored when they had to and Alabama lacked the downfield game to do anything before OT

 

[Der Jaeger]

Dominated is a little strong. They kicked one long FG and scored one TD, while Michigan missed a shorter FG. They were better than Michigan for much of the 2nd half, but not really by much. And then Michigan scored when they had to and Alabama lacked the downfield game to do anything before OT

Before Michigan’s touchdown drive, they had 17 second half offensive snaps and got 44 yards. They missed a field goal from field possession an Alabama fumble got them.

In that time, Alabama had a touchdown drive and a field goal drive. If Alabama doesn’t fumble and have the center snap short circuited drive, they put that game away. Michigan had nothing going in the second half until the final drive and Alabama had gotten into their power run game.

 

[misterchainsaw]

Before Michigan’s touchdown drive, they had 17 second half offensive snaps and got 44 yards. They missed a field goal from field possession an Alabama fumble got them.

In that time, Alabama had a touchdown drive and a field goal drive. If Alabama doesn’t fumble and have the center snap short circuited drive, they put that game away. Michigan had nothing going in the second half until the final drive and Alabama had gotten into their power run game.

So the FG drive was Alabama's 5th drive. Over both teams' first 4 drives of the half, Alabama outgained them 94-44. I'm sorry, that's not domination. The drive after the "center aborted snap" they went run for 3, run for 3, incomplete, punt. They punted twice, scored the TD, and turned it over once. And they did fumble. That's part of the game, just like the special teams that allowed Alabama to even have a 2nd half lead. Michigan's offense certainly stalled for a bit in the 2nd half, but Alabama was in no way overwhelming on offense. And MIchigan's offense also didn't go backwards or turn the ball over, which made Alabama's offense have to drive the length of the field to score - which they managed to do 1 time all evening (even that's being generous, because their 2nd half TD drive started near midfield after they gained 20 yards solely on difference of punt yardage after an exchange of punts).

If you want to include each teams 5th drive, Alabama outgained Michigan 129-119 over an even amount of 2nd half drives. Again, not "dominance" in any sense of the word. If Alabama's power run game was so significant, they should have been able to keep it going in overtime and probably even use it to get into FG range at the end of the game, and yet, Michigan's defense stopped them in both instances. Again.

 

[Djp]

To further illustrate the point:

Buffalo scores a TD on 28.4% of their drives
Baltimore scores a TD on 26.3% of their drives

Buffalo averages 32 yards per drive
Baltimore averages 39 yards per drive

Miami and 49ers are both a touch better than the bills in all those categories, but it is very minor.

The bills have a great offense and a great defense.

I think difference can be attributed to things like running up the score in decided games.

 

[Husko]

Gosh I wish there was anyway we could get Odunze or Nablers on our team. Just not in the cards, though. We'd have to trade our 2024 + 2025 firsts, and probably more too.

 

[Dubi Doo]

To further illustrate the point:

Buffalo scores a TD on 28.4% of their drives
Baltimore scores a TD on 26.3% of their drives

Buffalo averages 32 yards per drive
Baltimore averages 39 yards per drive

Miami and 49ers are both a touch better than the bills in all those categories, but it is very minor.

The bills have a great offense and a great defense.

Are you watching the highlights? Because the Bills have the fourth most first downs in the entire league. They have the best third down conversion rate, and the fourth best fourth down conversion rate. The Bills have the sixth most drives that end in points, and the sixth most offensive touch downs scored. They have the second best red zone conversion rate. By all appreciable metrics, they're a top five offense. And in a season in which the offensive coordinator was fired for holding the team's offense back.

You don't fire your OC midseason if everything is running smoothly. The offense is very good, but one of its flaws is that it's inconsistent. They peak higher than any team in the league (imo), and that's what keeps me hopeful for the playoffs.

That being said, they've been off the past few weeks. The offense got a nice boost after the firing of Dorsey. Now, the film is out on Brady, so it'll be interesting to see if he can adapt because the past few weeks have been rough.

On the plus side, the offense can catch fire at any moment, and beat any team in the league. The other thing I'm optimistic about is the defense. Douglas has given this defense the game breaking ability it's lacked over the past few seasons. Bernard is making the splash plays we all wished Edmunds would've made. We're not down to our depth players at safety. Ed Oliver is playing like a man possessed. Jones is getting back into his groove. Floyd has been a beast. They're relatively healthy. They have the potential to be the best defense we've had entering the playoffs in a while.

There's still a lot to be excited about, but the offense needs to be better if we want to make a run. And, not for nothing, BB is still a master defensive coordinator. I think Allen dragging his nuts all over the Pats the past few seasons has fogged our vision of what BB typically does to QBs.

This season is still incredibly reminiscent of 2021. TB game was the turning point that year. OT loss that had some of the worst reffing I've ever seen. The Philly game is our 2023 version of that game. People probably forget the offense had some dud games before going into the playoffs in 21'. Let's hope the offense can find their grove, because if they do, then this team can go on a run, but I do believe their consistency is one of their flaws, and Allen's next step will be becoming more consistent. If he does that, then he'll be a HoF QB with a SB ring or two.

 

[missingmika]

You don't fire your OC midseason if everything is running smoothly. The offense is very good, but one of its flaws is that it's inconsistent. They peak higher than any team in the league (imo), and that's what keeps me hopeful for the playoffs.

That being said, they've been off the past few weeks. The offense got a nice boost after the firing of Dorsey. Now, the film is out on Brady, so it'll be interesting to see if he can adapt because the past few weeks have been rough.

On the plus side, the offense can catch fire at any moment, and beat any team in the league. The other thing I'm optimistic about is the defense. Douglas has given this defense the game breaking ability it's lacked over the past few seasons. Bernard is making the splash plays we all wished Edmunds would've made. We're not down to our depth players at safety. Ed Oliver is playing like a man possessed. Jones is getting back into his groove. Floyd has been a beast. They're relatively healthy. They have the potential to be the best defense we've had entering the playoffs in a while.

There's still a lot to be excited about, but the offense needs to be better if we want to make a run. And, not for nothing, BB is still a master defensive coordinator. I think Allen dragging his nuts all over the Pats the past few seasons has fogged our vision of what BB typically does to QBs.

This season is still incredibly reminiscent of 2021. TB game was the turning point that year. OT loss that had some of the worst reffing I've ever seen. The Philly game is our 2023 version of that game. People probably forget the offense had some dud games before going into the playoffs in 21'. Let's hope the offense can find their grove, because if they do, then this team can go on a run, but I do believe their consistency is one of their flaws, and Allen's next step will be becoming more consistent. If he does that, then he'll be a HoF QB with a SB ring or two.

They’ve been fine the past couple of weeks.

@Philly - 34 points - that’s great
@KC - 20 points - top 10 DVOA defense. The most KC has given up at home is 21 (Lions and Eagles)
Dallas - 31 - that’s great
@LAC - 24 points - short week, travel - Ravens and Dallas only got 20 @LAC
NE - 27 total points (20 points from O) - not a terrible day

If the Bills O can put up 24-27 points a game in the playoffs, I’d expect them to win those games.

 

[Jim Bob]