Buffalo Bills Season's End: The Off-Seasons Starts Now

[ValJamesDuex]

Just like me dekeing out all the kids on Christmas with the statue of liberty

 

[Husko]

usatoday mock has 8 receivers at the bottom of the first through the top of the 2nd. I'm not too familiar with the NC man they have to the Bill's, anyone here a acc guy ?

Quarterbacks crowd the top of this new 2-round NFL mock draft

How many quarterbacks go in the first round of this new mock draft?

draftwire.usatoday.com

Lot of weird components of this mock, a few to note:
-I don't think Bo Nix goes top 50, much less top half of the first round (there's many QBs that should go before him)
-Fashanu is considered a generational LT prospect, he's in contention with MHJ for first non-QB taken. Not falling to 9.
-Odunze falling to 16 would shock me. He's going to challenge Nablers for WR2 and should go 5-10 range.
-That WR pick doesn't super excite me, but I don't know the player super well. Mims a few picks later would excite me a lot more

​

 

[Der Jaeger]

My analysis of what all of this means:

Contrary to some opinion, where you draft receivers really matters.
-Use a first round pick and you've got an over 50% chance at WR1 or better and a 90% chance of at least a startable player.
-Day 2 you've got a decent chance at a starter or better (nearly 50%), but if you need a bonafide WR1 or home run, you're really sledding up hill (15% chance).
-Day three you're pretty much throwing darts. ARSB aside, you've got a 15% chance at a starter and virtually zero chance at anything more. 85% chance of a bust.
-Want a superstar WR1? Almost absolutely needs to come in the first

Wha does it mean for the Bills? If you're hoping they'll eventually find a Diggs replacement by taking day 2 and day 3 shots, it's unlikely. They can probably get a Davis replacement on day 2, or on day 3 if they take enough shots. But if you're concerned about a longterm WR1 guy to someday supplant Diggs, look to the first and the first only.

Good analysis. I don’t do any analysis of a position until draft year +3 years so I haven’t looked at most of the year you did.

Here’s the question: why are we looking for a Diggs replacement?

Shouldn’t Beane be looking for a Dawkins or Miller replacement in the 1st round?

My argument about not taking a receiver in the first round has never been about replacing Diggs. Why spend that pick now when Diggs is still a legit #1 receiver.

Use a 2nd on Brendan Rice to replace Davis and call it a day.

Replace Diggs when he needs replacement.

 

[Husko]

Good analysis. I don’t do any analysis of a position until draft year +3 years so I haven’t looked at most of the year you did.

Here’s the question: why are we looking for a Diggs replacement?

Shouldn’t Beane be looking for a Dawkins or Miller replacement in the 1st round?

My argument about not taking a receiver in the first round has never been about replacing Diggs. Why spend that pick now when Diggs is still a legit #1 receiver.

Use a 2nd on Brendan Rice to replace Davis and call it a day.

Replace Diggs when he needs replacement.

I think both of those positions should be in play in the first, depending on where the highest potential talent sits.

FWIW, Dawkins is a year younger than Diggs and plays the position that tends to age more gracefully.

 

[Der Jaeger]

I think both of those positions should be in play in the first, depending on where the highest potential talent sits.

FWIW, Dawkins is a year younger than Diggs and plays the position that tends to age more gracefully.

Diggs is signed and Dawkins is a free agent after next season. I’d rather grab the OT and get the cost controlled seasons rather than overpay for an aging player.

When the Bills have the ability to move on from Diggs’ contract, they should do that too. But that won’t be soon.

 

[Djp]

Lot of weird components of this mock, a few to note:
-I don't think Bo Nix goes top 50, much less top half of the first round (there's many QBs that should go before him)
-Fashanu is considered a generational LT prospect, he's in contention with MHJ for first non-QB taken. Not falling to 9.
-Odunze falling to 16 would shock me. He's going to challenge Nablers for WR2 and should go 5-10 range.
-That WR pick doesn't super excite me, but I don't know the player super well. Mims a few picks later would excite me a lot more

​

Why Nix not in top 50?

as for your “ analysis”. I think it’s flawed. I prefer to look at your top 4 WR by team and assess them that way by draft

there is bias analysis there where you are judging player X not being able to break through a team vs re rivers doing well because of team need/ open spots/ system.

drafting depends greatly in what this team does. If the win the Super Bowl expect many vets to be sent off and they look at next 1-2 as a change over/ youth movement .

 

[Der Jaeger]

If I were Beane going forward, I’d draft X receivers. With Diggs and Kincaid, the team needs outside receivers who can pull coverage with them.

Justin Shorter fits that idea. So does the guy I’m advocating for, Brendan Rice.

This would work if Brady commits to 12 personnel long term, since Knox and Kincaid need more space in the middle to operate.

 

[Husko]

Why Nix not in top 50?

as for your “ analysis”. I think it’s flawed. I prefer to look at your top 4 WR by team and assess them that way by draft

there is bias analysis there where you are judging player X not being able to break through a team vs re rivers doing well because of team need/ open spots/ system.

drafting depends greatly in what this team does. If the win the Super Bowl expect many vets to be sent off and they look at next 1-2 as a change over/ youth movement .

Is the analysis flawed or do you just not like the results? The hit rate at WR is significantly higher in the first than in the rest of the draft. Sorry that doesn’t confirm to your priors that it’s easy to find a receiver later in the draft.

Nix isnt a top 50 player because he’s not one of the five best QB prospects in the draft. He’s a fifth year super senior that has always struggled with the mental aspects of the game and doesn’t play in a sophisticated offense. Day 2 pick.

 

[Dirty Dog]

Why Nix not in top 50?

as for your “ analysis”. I think it’s flawed. I prefer to look at your top 4 WR by team and assess them that way by draft

there is bias analysis there where you are judging player X not being able to break through a team vs re rivers doing well because of team need/ open spots/ system.

drafting depends greatly in what this team does. If the win the Super Bowl expect many vets to be sent off and they look at next 1-2 as a change over/ youth movement .

Well then every player evaluation ever is flawed as any player’s success is dependent on team and situation.

But by looking at every WR for years, you can put away that bias.

 

[ValJamesDuex]

Not bad really for Dec 31

 

[Taro Tsujimoto]

 

[Dubi Doo]

If Jones can get back to 100% in time for the playoffs, that would be MASSIVE. He was on fire to start the year. Honestly, the stars are aligning for this team to make a run. Beane trading for Douglas may be the move that moves the needle for them.

You could make an argument that Jones was a top-3 player on this defense prior to his injury. Oliver + Jones in the middle has me giddy.

Also, Hyde is active as well. Rapp is pretty blah, though I do like the energy he brings even if he does cross the line at times. Him and Dodson helped set the tone of that Dallas game. I trust Hyde way more covering deep, though.

 

[buffa dud]

I hope Jones can be close to what he was, and that Phillips can make a comeback. I'd really like to see what Jones, Joseph, Phillips and Oliver can do up front.

 

[buffa dud]

What's the word on Xavier Legette and/or Adonai Mitchell? It looks like they have some of the best hands in the draft, and are projected to go in the mid-second I believe.

 

[26CornerBlitz]

McDermott says DaQuan Jones will be activated for Sunday's game with Germain Ifedi released. Also expects Hyde to be active.

 

[yahhockey]

I would guess Jones is on a pitch count however it's great that he can be slowly worked into the rotation.

Unsurprising news but Waddle is officially out.

 

[26CornerBlitz]

 

[misterchainsaw]

No Lawrence for Jacksonville.

I know it's against Carolina, but they've been at least competitive in a lot of games. Jacksonville having to go with their backup could make that a very interesting game.

 

[yahhockey]

Bears fans must be pulling their hair out, lol. It's not worth the discussion of what-ifs however there is a realistic scenario where Carolina wins their final two games and the Bears no longer possess the top draft pick. (Carolina traded their 2024 first round pick to Chicago so they could draft Bryce Young)

 

[Taro Tsujimoto]

 

[ValJamesDuex]

Veteran experience for p/s down the stretch or they really want to run it in Miami and beyond ?

 

[Husko]

Veteran experience for p/s down the stretch or they really want to run it in Miami and beyond ?

The just released Ifedi to make room for Jones, so I imagine they’re looking for a vet OT for the PS in case one of our starters goes down.

 

[Zman5778]

Bears fans must be pulling their hair out, lol. It's not worth the discussion of what-ifs however there is a realistic scenario where Carolina wins their final two games and the Bears no longer possess the top draft pick. (Carolina traded their 2024 first round pick to Chicago so they could draft Bryce Young)

That's not necessarily the worst thing for Chicago though. Imagine Fields throwing to Harrison Jr, Moore and Kmet. If Chicago's O-line could hold up.....that could be very, very dangerous.

 

[ValJamesDuex]

The just released Ifedi to make room for Jones, so I imagine they’re looking for a vet OT for the PS in case one of our starters goes down.

likely means Ifedi is not interested in the practice squad and or is signing elsewhere then ?

 

[Husko]

likely means Ifedi is not interested in the practice squad and or is signing elsewhere then ?

I think either is possible, or perhaps even they just want to see what's out there.