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Buffalo Bills Season's End: The Off-Seasons Starts Now

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Djp said:
the track record of first round wr is not all that good. You have just as much chance outside the first roun



the track record of first round wr is not all that good. You have just as much chance outside the first roun
Click to expand...
I think youre big time understating the bust rate outside the first round. Just take a read through guys taken outside the first two rounds the last five drafts. You’ll see lots of names you’ve never even heard of. The bust rate is off the charts.
 
With all the talk of whether WR hit rate in the first round is good versus other positions, I decided to do a bit of a statistical deep dive into the position's recent draft history. I'm using the 2018-2022 drafts, because I wanted five drafts and didn't want to use the most recent (too early). This is for the purposes of finding a legit offensive starting WR. So guys that stick around but in ST or other capacities are devalued. I'm grouping the players into these categories:
-Home run (is or projects as a top 5ish WR in the league)
-WR1 (profiles as a WR1 but not a top of the league player)
-Starter (can contribute on an offense but not a bonafide WR1)
-Bust (anyone that doesn't produce at a legitimate WR level)

For each class I'll list the last names after the stats. You're free to squabble with some characterizations, but I'll do the best I can. I'll be dividing into 1st round, Day 2, and Day 3.

2022
First Round
-Home Run: 0/6
-WR1: 3/6 (Wilson, London, Olave)
-Starter: 3/6 (Williams, Dotson, Burks)
-Bust: 0/6

Day Two
-Home Run: 0/11
-WR1: 1/11 (Watson)
-Starter: 4/11 (Robinson, Pickens, Piece, Moore) [some of these are quite debatable]
-Bust: 6/11 (Metchie, Thorton, Jones, Tolbert, Bell, Gray)

Day Three
-Home Run: 0/11
-WR1: 0/11
-Starter: 2/11 (Doubs, Shakir)
-Bust: 9/11 (everyone else)

2021
First Round
-Home Run: 1/5 (Chase)
-WR1: 2/5 (Waddle, Smith)
-Starter: 1/5 (Bateman)
-Bust: 1/5 (Toney)

Day Two
-Home Run: 0/10
-WR1: 0/10
-Starter: 5/10 (Moore, Moore, Tutu, Palmer, Collins)
-Bust: 5/10 (Eskrdige, Marshall, Schwartz, Rodgers, Brown)

Day Three
-Home Run: 1/19 (ARSB)
-WR1: 0/19
-Starter: 0/19
-Bust: 0/19 (everyone else)

2020
First Round
-Home Run: 2/6 (Lamb, Jefferson)
-WR1: 1/6 (Aiyuk)
-Starter: 3/6 (Ruggs, Raegor, Jeudy) [I know Ruggs is a bust because of off he field, but on the field he was a middling starter
-Bust: 0/6

Day Two
-Home Run: 0/10
-WR1: 2/10 (Higgins, Pittman)
-Starter: 2/10 (Claypool, Jefferson,
-Bust: 6/10 (Shenault, Hamler, Bowden, Edwards, Duverany, Mims)

Day Three
-Home Run: 0/20
-WR1: 0/20
-Starter: 4/20 (Davis, DPJ, Osborn, Mooner)
-Bust: 16/20 (everyone else)

2019
First Round
-Home Run: 0/2
-WR1: 1/2 (Brown)
-Starter: 0/2
-Bust: 1/2 (Harry)

Day Two
-Home Run: 1/11 (AJ Brown)
-WR1: 3/11 (Deebo, McLaurin, Metcalf)
-Starter: 3/11 (Johnson, Campbell, Hardman)
-Bust: 4/11 (Whiteside, Isabella, Boykin, Hurd, )

Day Three
-Home Run: 0/16
-WR1: 0/16
-Starter: 2/16 (Renfrow, Slatron)
-Bust: 14/16 (everyone else)

2018
First Round
-Home Run: 0/2
-WR1: 2/2 (Ridley, Moore)
-Starter: 0/2
-Bust: 0/2

Day Two
-Home Run: 0/8
-WR1: 1/8 (Kirk)
-Starter: 3/8 (Sutton, Chark, Gallup)
-Bust: 4/8 (Washington, Miller, Petis, Smith)

Day Three
-Home Run: 0/23
-WR1: 0/23
-Starter: 3/23 (Berrior, Gage, MVS)
-Bust: 20/23 (everyone else)


SO WHAT DOES THIS ALL ADD UP TO?
Here's the likelihood of each outcome by round:

First Round
-Home Run: 3/21 (24%)
-First Round: 9/21 (43%)
-Starter: 7/21 (33%)
-Bust: 2/21 (10%)

Day Two
-Home Run: 1/50 (2%)
-First Round: 7/50 (14%)
-Starter: 17/50 (34%)
-Bust: 25/50 (50%)

Day Three
-Home Run: 1/79 (1%)
-First Round: 0/79 (0%)
-Starter: 11/79 (14%)
-Bust: 67/79 (85%)
 
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Husko said:
With all the talk of whether WR hit rate in the first round is good versus other positions, I decided to do a bit of a statistical deep dive into the position's recent draft history. I'm using the 2018-2022 drafts, because I wanted five drafts and didn't want to use the most recent (too early). This is for the purposes of finding a legit offensive starting WR. So guys that stick around but in ST or other capacities are devalued. I'm grouping the players into these categories:
-Home run (is or projects as a top 5ish WR in the league)
-WR1 (profiles as a WR1 but not a top of the league player)
-Starter (can contribute on an offense but not a bonafide WR1)
-Bust (anyone that doesn't produce at a legitimate WR level)

For each class I'll list the last names after the stats. You're free to squabble with some characterizations, but I'll do the best I can. I'll be dividing into 1st round, Day 2, and Day 3.

2022
First Round
-Home Run: 0/6
-WR1: 3/6 (Wilson, London, Olave)
-Starter: 3/6 (Williams, Dotson, Burks)
-Bust: 0/6

Day Two
-Home Run: 0/11
-WR1: 1/11 (Watson)
-Starter: 4/11 (Robinson, Pickens, Piece, Moore) [some of these are quite debatable]
-Bust: 6/11 (Metchie, Thorton, Jones, Tolbert, Bell, Gray)

Day Three
-Home Run: 0/11
-WR1: 0/11
-Starter: 2/11 (Doubs, Shakir)
-Bust: 9/11 (everyone else)

2021
First Round
-Home Run: 1/5 (Chase)
-WR1: 2/5 (Waddle, Smith)
-Starter: 1/5 (Bateman)
-Bust: 1/5 (Toney)

Day Two
-Home Run: 0/10
-WR1: 0/10
-Starter: 5/10 (Moore, Moore, Tutu, Palmer, Collins)
-Bust: 5/10 (Eskrdige, Marshall, Schwartz, Rodgers, Brown)

Day Three
-Home Run: 1/19 (ARSB)
-WR1: 0/19
-Starter: 0/19
-Bust: 0/19 (everyone else)

2020
First Round
-Home Run: 2/6 (Lamb, Jefferson)
-WR1: 1/6 (Aiyuk)
-Starter: 3/6 (Ruggs, Raegor, Jeudy) [I know Ruggs is a bust because of off he field, but on the field he was a middling starter
-Bust: 0/6

Day Two
-Home Run: 0/10
-WR1: 2/10 (Higgins, Pittman)
-Starter: 2/10 (Claypool, Jefferson,
-Bust: 6/10 (Shenault, Hamler, Bowden, Edwards, Duverany, Mims)

Day Three
-Home Run: 0/20
-WR1: 0/20
-Starter: 4/20 (Davis, DPJ, Osborn, Mooner)
-Bust: 16/20 (everyone else)

2019
First Round
-Home Run: 0/2
-WR1: 1/2 (Brown)
-Starter: 0/2
-Bust: 1/2 (Harry)

Day Two
-Home Run: 1/11 (AJ Brown)
-WR1: 3/11 (Deebo, McLaurin, Metcalf) (note that most of these were drafted very high second)
-Starter: 3/11 (Johnson, Campbell, Hardman)
-Bust: 4/11 (Whiteside, Isabella, Boykin, Hurd, )

Day Three
-Home Run: 0/16
-WR1: 0/16
-Starter: 2/16 (Renfrow, Slatron)
-Bust: 14/16 (everyone else)

2018
First Round
-Home Run: 0/2
-WR1: 2/2 (Ridley, Moore)
-Starter: 0/2
-Bust: 0/2

Day Two
-Home Run: 0/8
-WR1: 1/8 (Kirk)
-Starter: 3/8 (Sutton, Chark, Gallup)
-Bust: 4/8 (Washington, Miller, Petis, Smith)

Day Three
-Home Run: 0/23
-WR1: 0/23
-Starter: 3/23 (Berrior, Gage, MVS)
-Bust: 20/23 (everyone else)


SO WHAT DOES THIS ALL ADD UP TO?
Here's the likelihood of each outcome by round:

First Round
-Home Run: 3/21 (24%)
-WR1: 9/21 (43%)
-Starter: 7/21 (33%)
-Bust: 2/21 (10%)

Day Two
-Home Run: 1/50 (2%)
-WR1: 7/50 (14%)
-Starter: 17/50 (34%)
-Bust: 25/50 (50%)

Day Three
-Home Run: 1/79 (1%)
-WR1: 0/79 (0%)
-Starter: 11/79 (14%)
-Bust: 67/79 (85%)
Click to expand...
My analysis of what all of this means:

Contrary to some opinion, where you draft receivers really matters.
-Use a first round pick and you've got an over 50% chance at WR1 or better and a 90% chance of at least a startable player.
-Day 2 you've got a decent chance at a starter or better (nearly 50%), but if you need a bonafide WR1 or home run, you're really sledding up hill (15% chance).
-Day three you're pretty much throwing darts. ARSB aside, you've got a 15% chance at a starter and virtually zero chance at anything more. 85% chance of a bust.
-Want a superstar WR1? Almost absolutely needs to come in the first

Wha does it mean for the Bills? If you're hoping they'll eventually find a Diggs replacement by taking day 2 and day 3 shots, it's unlikely. They can probably get a Davis replacement on day 2, or on day 3 if they take enough shots. But if you're concerned about a longterm WR1 guy to someday supplant Diggs, look to the first and the first only.
 
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Just to add to Husko's point, there are essentially three premium positions in the league - QB, WR and EDGE. If you draft a player at any one of these positions in the first round, you also afford yourself one more year of cost-controlled performance due to the fifth year option. That's a ten to twenty million dollar perk assuming the pick hits.
 
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buffa dud said:
Just to add to Husko's point, there are essentially three premium positions in the league - QB, WR and EDGE. If you draft a player at any one of these positions in the first round, you also afford yourself one more year of cost-controlled performance due to the fifth year option. That's a ten to twenty million dollar perk assuming the pick hits.
Click to expand...
I’d add OT to your list too. A good backup OT costs as much as a starter at a lot of other positions. But yes, I agree with the point.
 
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buffa dud said:
Just to add to Husko's point, there are essentially three premium positions in the league - QB, WR and EDGE. If you draft a player at any one of these positions in the first round, you also afford yourself one more year of cost-controlled performance due to the fifth year option. That's a ten to twenty million dollar perk assuming the pick hits.
Click to expand...
I'd say tackle is a premium position, too.

Edit: just saw @Husko already posted about this. Disregard my post
 
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Dubi Doo said:
I'd like to avoid Cleveland if possible.
Click to expand...
There is a scenario where Miami wins out, Ravens lose out, Browns win out, we beat NE and lose to MIA, get the requisite help, and end up the 7 seed, and the WC is Buffalo @ Cleveland.

Which when spelled out, isn't really that farfetched, other than Baltimore losing to Pittsburgh in week 18. Though given the history of that rivalry, anything could happen and would still be realistic provided it's a low scoring 1 score game...
 
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Uberpecker said:
So Jets Cleveland.
Do we have a dog in this fight?
Click to expand...
Cleveland losing out gives us a chance to move into the 5 seed (and a date with the AFC South winner) should Miami win tomorrow. We'd have to win both weeks.

Also worsens the Jets draft position if you care about that.
 
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misterchainsaw said:
Honestly if not the 2 seed I don't care where we end up (as long as we're in)

And that's the other thing - if Cincy beats KC we're going to want to root for Cleveland to beat Cincy anyway for a fallback in case we lose to Miami.
Click to expand...
yeah not long ago we were all worried as heck to just get in. I don't care who the opponent is, if we aren't rolling it won't matter who we play, and if we are rolling, it won't matter who we play. Just gonna take the ride.
 
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Al Michaels with a football/baseball crossover, lol




If only they began the season the way they are ending it...
 
Jets defense has just given up. They know the offense is atrocious and they're not going to bother trying anymore.
 
ValJamesDuex said:
usatoday mock has 8 receivers at the bottom of the first through the top of the 2nd. I'm not too familiar with the NC man they have to the Bill's, anyone here a acc guy ?
draftwire.usatoday.com

Quarterbacks crowd the top of this new 2-round NFL mock draft

How many quarterbacks go in the first round of this new mock draft?
draftwire.usatoday.com draftwire.usatoday.com
Click to expand...

Eeeep. I'm not a huge fan of Walker. VERY much reminds me of Gabe Davis, minus the blocking ability. Yes, he's faster and can make contested sideline catches. But boy he's kinda a Gabe clone. MAYBE he's worth a chance in the 2nd.....but I don't see a pick worthy of a 1st

HOWEVER, this mock has Keon Coleman slipping to the 2nd round and I just can't see it. In any way. He's going to be a 1st round pick and more than likely gone by the time we pick.

Assuming Coleman is actually gone by the time we pick....the way this mock goes, I'd take Kinchen or Mims in the first then gleefully take Worthy in the 2nd (I also see Worthy slipping into the bottom of the 1st).
 
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NotABadPeriod said:
Jets defense has just given up. They know the offense is atrocious and they're not going to bother trying anymore.
Click to expand...

Yeah. This defense has packed it up for the winter. Cleveland Identified a mismatch early and just throttled the shit out of it. I expect a'better' defensive effort from NYJ the next half, but this one is over.
 
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