Buffalo Bills Season's End: The Off-Seasons Starts Now

[Husko]

Bills thoughts:

Joe Brady is the new OC. There's no interim. He's moved away from a vertical game to getting Allen to play possession ball. Allen is still superman but only when he needs to be. Run and throw short for possession and YAC. That is the way.

I don't have a PFF subscription, but I'd love to see where the offensive linemen grade out at after the past few weeks. I think Brown is playing well, and aside from when KC threw everything at Allen, he's been able to operate from the pocket. The run blocking has been elite. That said, I'd still look to draft offensive line. Don't let the group get away from you, in terms of replacement personnel.

The defense is going to be killer next season with Milano returning. White coming back strong would only be icing on the cake. If Beane can shore up DT and safety, and then add a pass rusher, it's a league-best type of unit again.

I wonder if McDermott and Beane had a plan to hold Fournette until the end. Keep him fresh until the playoffs and let him loose.

Bills won't need to spend a 1st on receiver with the way Brady is play calling. Davis has been invisible and they're still churning.

I'd still add a DC if I were McDermott. Get him back to the head coach position. I'd also add an assistant HC. Like an associate HC. Someone who can assist with situational football and decisions.

Final thought: this season feels a little like what the 2020 Buccaneers went through.
- Opening loss to the Saints.
- Continued to 6-2 with 4 blowout wins
- Got blown out by the Saints, and lost tight games to the Rams and KC at home, with a 7-5 record going into the bye week.
- Ran the table at the end of the season to finish 11-5
- Played 3 straight road games in the playoffs, going 3-0, winning in Washington, New Orleans, and Green Bay.

There's a battle tested version of the Bucs that survived and won it all with a lot of problems on the roster and during the season. Not to draw too many comparisons, but the Bills feel like the Bucs that season.

I don't think it's that complicated with Fournette. I think he's just the 4th best RB on the team. Especially with how good Johnson looks and how much they trust Lat in his role, I really don't see a place for Fournette absent an injury.

 

[Dubi Doo]

Great! First move: keep Hackett for next season.

Who is a bigger tire fire at this point? The Jets or Sabres?

 

[Dubi Doo]

21 day practice window opened for Jones per Buscaglia. Nice!

 

[SwordsgoneWild]

Great! First move: keep Hackett for next season.

Who is a bigger tire fire at this point? The Jets or Sabres?

Sabres. At least the Jets have the excuse of their #1 QB being hurt and a devastated Oline. The Sabres are just a middling mess.

 

[SwordsgoneWild]

21 day practice window opened for Jones per Buscaglia. Nice!

I hope he can come back for the Miami game. It would be nice for him to get a game in before any potential playoff contest. . Even better to do it against a injury riddled line like the Dolphins have. Best news I've heard yet. He would be a massive addition.

 

[Jim Bob]

 

[Der Jaeger]

I don't think it's that complicated with Fournette. I think he's just the 4th best RB on the team. Especially with how good Johnson looks and how much they trust Lat in his role, I really don't see a place for Fournette absent an injury.

In 2020, the Bucs only ran him 97 times in the regular season. He was inactive for 3 games and didn't play at all in one game. His rushing attempts by game were: 5, 12, 7, 11, 15, 1, 8, 7, 3, 14, 9, and 5. He had 103 yards in the 12 attempt game but never broke 52 yards after that.

In the playoffs, Tampa ran him 19 times against the Commanders for 93 yards and a TD, 17 times against the Saints for 63 yards (caught a TD pass), 12 times against the Packers for 55 yards and a TD, and 16 times against the Chiefs for 89 yards and a TD in the Super Bowl.

Fournette almost had more rushing yards in the playoffs than in the regular season. He had 4 TDs in the playoffs and 6 in the regular season.

I can't imagine Beane and McDermott don't have that data from their analytics team. If I had it, I'd hold him until the playoffs and then unleash him as a fresh battering ram against worn out defenses, especially in bad weather.

 

[buffa dud]

Bills thoughts:

Joe Brady is the new OC. There's no interim. He's moved away from a vertical game to getting Allen to play possession ball. Allen is still superman but only when he needs to be. Run and throw short for possession and YAC. That is the way.

I don't have a PFF subscription, but I'd love to see where the offensive linemen grade out at after the past few weeks. I think Brown is playing well, and aside from when KC threw everything at Allen, he's been able to operate from the pocket. The run blocking has been elite. That said, I'd still look to draft offensive line. Don't let the group get away from you, in terms of replacement personnel.

The defense is going to be killer next season with Milano returning. White coming back strong would only be icing on the cake. If Beane can shore up DT and safety, and then add a pass rusher, it's a league-best type of unit again.

I wonder if McDermott and Beane had a plan to hold Fournette until the end. Keep him fresh until the playoffs and let him loose.

Bills won't need to spend a 1st on receiver with the way Brady is play calling. Davis has been invisible and they're still churning.

I'd still add a DC if I were McDermott. Get him back to the head coach position. I'd also add an assistant HC. Like an associate HC. Someone who can assist with situational football and decisions.

Final thought: this season feels a little like what the 2020 Buccaneers went through.
- Opening loss to the Saints.
- Continued to 6-2 with 4 blowout wins
- Got blown out by the Saints, and lost tight games to the Rams and KC at home, with a 7-5 record going into the bye week.
- Ran the table at the end of the season to finish 11-5
- Played 3 straight road games in the playoffs, going 3-0, winning in Washington, New Orleans, and Green Bay.

There's a battle tested version of the Bucs that survived and won it all with a lot of problems on the roster and during the season. Not to draw too many comparisons, but the Bills feel like the Bucs that season.

Two points that cannot be stressed enough.

 

[Jim Bob]

Bills thoughts:

Joe Brady is the new OC. There's no interim. He's moved away from a vertical game to getting Allen to play possession ball. Allen is still superman but only when he needs to be. Run and throw short for possession and YAC. That is the way.

I don't have a PFF subscription, but I'd love to see where the offensive linemen grade out at after the past few weeks. I think Brown is playing well, and aside from when KC threw everything at Allen, he's been able to operate from the pocket. The run blocking has been elite. That said, I'd still look to draft offensive line. Don't let the group get away from you, in terms of replacement personnel.

The defense is going to be killer next season with Milano returning. White coming back strong would only be icing on the cake. If Beane can shore up DT and safety, and then add a pass rusher, it's a league-best type of unit again.

I wonder if McDermott and Beane had a plan to hold Fournette until the end. Keep him fresh until the playoffs and let him loose.

Bills won't need to spend a 1st on receiver with the way Brady is play calling. Davis has been invisible and they're still churning.

I'd still add a DC if I were McDermott. Get him back to the head coach position. I'd also add an assistant HC. Like an associate HC. Someone who can assist with situational football and decisions.

Final thought: this season feels a little like what the 2020 Buccaneers went through.
- Opening loss to the Saints.
- Continued to 6-2 with 4 blowout wins
- Got blown out by the Saints, and lost tight games to the Rams and KC at home, with a 7-5 record going into the bye week.
- Ran the table at the end of the season to finish 11-5
- Played 3 straight road games in the playoffs, going 3-0, winning in Washington, New Orleans, and Green Bay.

There's a battle tested version of the Bucs that survived and won it all with a lot of problems on the roster and during the season. Not to draw too many comparisons, but the Bills feel like the Bucs that season.

Diggs has seen his numbers regress big time since Brady took over, as well.

With Dorsey this season: (avg/g) 10.2 targets 7.4 recs 72.5% catch% 86.8 yds 0.7 TDs
With Brady this season: (avg/g) 8.75 targets 4.5 recs 51.4% catch% 43.25 yds 0.25 TDs

I feel like a meaningful investment in WR in the draft is a huge need with Davis likely gone and Diggs potentially falling off a cliff within a year or two.

 

[SwordsgoneWild]

Had to post this over on the Football board . This is crazy . What on earth did they do?

 

[Jim Bob]

 

[Der Jaeger]

Working some more playoff prediction machine stuff.

If the games go without upsets, and the Bills go 2-0 headed into week 18, that game is for the division and a playoff spot, with the Bills needing to win to get into the playoffs.

I had Miami winning against Dallas and losing to Baltimore.

If that holds, the Bills would host Miami in the 1st round of the playoffs.

 

[Jim Bob]

Had to post this over on the Football board . This is crazy . What on earth did they do?

They were both healthy scratches for the Steelers game on Saturday. Either something happened before the game or they did not react well to being scratched.

 

[buffa dud]

Working some more playoff prediction machine stuff.

If the games go without upsets, and the Bills go 2-0 headed into week 18, that game is for the division and a playoff spot, with the Bills needing to win to get into the playoffs.

I had Miami winning against Dallas and losing to Baltimore.

If that holds, the Bills would host Miami in the 1st round of the playoffs.

Same. I don't buy into the Dallas hype when they're away from home, but Baltimore... they're still playing for the number one seed, and the game's going to be at home. With their D, that should be enough (to take one from Miami.)

 

[Dirty Dog]

Didn’t McKenzie party before a game one night in buffalo and was benched because of it? Or is that a total figment of my imagination.

 

[Der Jaeger]

Diggs has seen his numbers regress big time since Brady took over, as well.

With Dorsey this season: (avg/g) 10.2 targets 7.4 recs 72.5% catch% 86.8 yds 0.7 TDs
With Brady this season: (avg/g) 8.75 targets 4.5 recs 51.4% catch% 43.25 yds 0.25 TDs

I feel like a meaningful investment in WR in the draft is a huge need with Davis likely gone and Diggs potentially falling off a cliff within a year or two.

I don't disagree but I don't think Beane needs to invest a first rounder. Receivers in the 2nd and 3rd rounds end up being big contributors. It's early, and PFF's board is off (they have Coleman as the 44th prospect, Egbuka at 37), but here's who's available between prospect 33 and 100:

Ladd McConkey
Adonai Mitchell
Jermaine Burton
Xavier Legette
Xavier Worthy
Ja'Lynn Polk
Brendan Rice
Ricky Pearsall
Jalen McMillan
Johnny Wilson
Roman Wilson
JM. Sturdivant
Tory Horton
Jamari Thrash
Malachi Corley

That list will adjust but there's a ton of talent there. Kincaid is going to explode next season. Shakir is showing that he's capable.

I don't see the need to throw a 1st at a position. Diggs will have 2-3 more good years, and Brady can start to scheme him into slot routes. Add in a 2-3 pick receiver this season and maybe next, and the position will be fine.

I'm more concerned about the type of receiver Beane adds. He needs a vertical threat who can catch. That's why I'm so high on Rice. I'd spend a 2nd on him. I think he's a 1st round talent who will get underdrafted due to the depth of the position. He'll be a better pro than collegian.

 

[Jim Bob]

When the Cook + Dawkins shirt hits the store...

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[Der Jaeger]

PFF mock, put the Bills at pick 32.

 

[Jim Bob]

I don't disagree but I don't think Beane needs to invest a first rounder. Receivers in the 2nd and 3rd rounds end up being big contributors. It's early, and PFF's board is off (they have Coleman as the 44th prospect, Egbuka at 37), but here's who's available between prospect 33 and 100:

Ladd McConkey
Adonai Mitchell
Jermaine Burton
Xavier Legette
Xavier Worthy
Ja'Lynn Polk
Brendan Rice
Ricky Pearsall
Jalen McMillan
Johnny Wilson
Roman Wilson
JM. Sturdivant
Tory Horton
Jamari Thrash
Malachi Corley

That list will adjust but there's a ton of talent there. Kincaid is going to explode next season. Shakir is showing that he's capable.

I don't see the need to throw a 1st at a position. Diggs will have 2-3 more good years, and Brady can start to scheme him into slot routes. Add in a 2-3 pick receiver this season and maybe next, and the position will be fine.

I'm more concerned about the type of receiver Beane adds. He needs a vertical threat who can catch. That's why I'm so high on Rice. I'd spend a 2nd on him. I think he's a 1st round talent who will get underdrafted due to the depth of the position. He'll be a better pro than collegian.

I don't care when they take the guy, as long as they get a guy.

DE, S, and WR are all likely to be huge needs going into the draft.

Here is who they have signed for next year at those positions:

WR: Diggs, Harty, Shakir, Shorter
S: Poyer & Hamlin
DE: Miller, Rousseau, Jonathan

 

[Husko]

I’d like to see them bring Lewis back on a multi year deal for cheap. His game is really growing on me and he might be the best S on the roster right now, including Poyer and Hyde.

 

[Der Jaeger]

I don't care when they take the guy, as long as they get a guy.

DE, S, and WR are all likely to be huge needs going into the draft.

Here is who they have signed for next year at those positions:

WR: Diggs, Harty, Shakir, Shorter
S: Poyer & Hamlin
DE: Miller, Rousseau, Jonathan

Agreed, with the caveot that I'd like to get ahead of the looming offensive line issue. I took a LT in the 1st and a center in the 3rd of the mock from PFF I posted above, specifically because I'd like to avoid Allen running for his life once Dawkins and Morse are gone.

I think Beane is going to be able to re-structure enough players to make cap room, and get some team friendly deals from returning veterans.

I think Beane can re-sign Floyd for a reasonable amount, and get Lawson and Phillips to return. I also think Jones would return on a 1 year team friendly deal.

I'm not sure what he's going to do at safety. I like the idea about Lewis posted by @Husko. I also like the idea of converting a corner.

If you add someone like Rice to that receiver group, and get Sherfield to sign a team friendly deal (or someone like him), I think it'll suffice. Most of Allen's passes are going to Diggs and Kincaid anyway.

 

[SwordsgoneWild]

Seriously Jerry? You're blaming the weather? It wasn't even bad.. I like how he is all but saying that the team needs to play at home under a roof to hang with people.

 

[Husko]

Agreed, with the caveot that I'd like to get ahead of the looming offensive line issue. I took a LT in the 1st and a center in the 3rd of the mock from PFF I posted above, specifically because I'd like to avoid Allen running for his life once Dawkins and Morse are gone.

I think Beane is going to be able to re-structure enough players to make cap room, and get some team friendly deals from returning veterans.

I think Beane can re-sign Floyd for a reasonable amount, and get Lawson and Phillips to return. I also think Jones would return on a 1 year team friendly deal.

I'm not sure what he's going to do at safety. I like the idea about Lewis posted by @Husko. I also like the idea of converting a corner.

If you add someone like Rice to that receiver group, and get Sherfield to sign a team friendly deal (or someone like him), I think it'll suffice. Most of Allen's passes are going to Diggs and Kincaid anyway.

If they do convert a corner, I imagine it's White in an attempt to get ahead of his athleticism dropping off. Maybe paired with a contract restructure commiserate with his new role and uncertainty.

They could also sign and convert someone. Poyer and Hyde were both hybrid players, not full time safeties, before signing with the Bills.

 

[K8fool]

I have my issues w TBD and SS but good content is good content as we are all hands on deck these days. I was wondering about Mr Milano so ill post this excellent post from there.

billsfan89​

Posted 30 minutes ago

1 hour ago, Buffalo03 said:
I still don't know why Milano can't be ready if we get in the playoffs. How long does it take for a fractured leg to heal? He did it in week 5, it's week 16. It's 11 weeks since the injury and another 3 added on in the next 3 games, I would think he could be somewhat ready by playoff time if we get there

Banged Up Bills did a pretty good breakdown of the injury (see link below) the return to play from this injury is usually 8 months which is 1.5 months longer than the entire season (training camp/pre-season through the Super Bowl included) so the timetable is going to put Milano having a full return in May which should allow him to work out fully for two plus months before training camp and won't impact him for next season hopefully. Banged Up Bills, however, did note that there were a few examples of players who returned from a similar injury post-surgery after about 3ish months. But those seem to be the exception to the rule and not the rule. And from what McD has thus far said I would think Milano is likely out even if the Bills are playing in mid to late January. But if he hasn't been officially ruled out I guess anything is possible.

Examining Buffalo Bills Matt Milano's Right Knee Injury - Banged Up Bills

"The first case is Kansas City Chiefs S Daniel Sorensen who suffered a left tibial plateau fracture with lateral meniscus tear in the preseason in 2018. He underwent surgery in mid-August and was able to miss the first nine games of the season on injured reserve before returning to play in Week 10 to play in seven regular-season games and two playoff games.

The other instance is a case report from PFATS, the Professional Football Athletic Trainers Society. This was done by Andrew DePietropaolo PT, DPT who is an Assistant AT for the Green Bay Packers. He highlighted a case where the player suffered a similar injury to what Matt Milano suffered and they were able to return to practice in 10 weeks and played half a game later that week. It’s also worth highlighting that this case involved an MCL internal bracing to address ligament laxity from the initial injury.

This player was OL Josh Myers who returned to play at 10.5 weeks and played in a full playoff game at 12 weeks. Different duties with offensive line vs linebacker, but still some positive news."

43 minutes ago, MiracleAtRich1393 said:

Yep, just like last year vs. Cincy in the divisional round

I loved the addition of Ford in the offseason as I thought Ford could be a backup "run stuffer" once they realized Ford stunk they signed Joseph and that's back filled for Jones run stuffing ability really well. Joseph isn't the same pass rusher disruptor as Jones but at least the Bills were able to stop the gaping holes up the middle of the defense that existed when Jones was out and Joseph wasn't there.

 

[Husko]

Agreed, with the caveot that I'd like to get ahead of the looming offensive line issue. I took a LT in the 1st and a center in the 3rd of the mock from PFF I posted above, specifically because I'd like to avoid Allen running for his life once Dawkins and Morse are gone.

I think Beane is going to be able to re-structure enough players to make cap room, and get some team friendly deals from returning veterans.

I think Beane can re-sign Floyd for a reasonable amount, and get Lawson and Phillips to return. I also think Jones would return on a 1 year team friendly deal.

I'm not sure what he's going to do at safety. I like the idea about Lewis posted by @Husko. I also like the idea of converting a corner.

If you add someone like Rice to that receiver group, and get Sherfield to sign a team friendly deal (or someone like him), I think it'll suffice. Most of Allen's passes are going to Diggs and Kincaid anyway.

No way. Floyd is about to get a top of market deal. If the Bills do re-sign him (or franchise him for that matter), that's the marquee move, they're doing nothing else. He has as many sacks as Nick Bossa.