Buffalo Bills Season's End: The Off-Seasons Starts Now

[Willgamesh]

No way. Floyd is about to get a top of market deal. If the Bills do re-sign him (or franchise him for that matter), that's the marquee move, they're doing nothing else. He has as many sacks as Nick Bossa.

Gotta keep Flo. Whatever it takes.

 

[Husko]

Gotta keep Flo. Whatever it takes.

Are you willing to give a 32 year old Floyd a contract resembling what we gave Von?

 

[Dubi Doo]

No way. Floyd is about to get a top of market deal. If the Bills do re-sign him (or franchise him for that matter), that's the marquee move, they're doing nothing else. He has as many sacks as Nick Bossa.

Type of deal that gives a team that extra boost to make a run in the playoffs. A++++ signing, and I fear you're right. He's going to get paid this offseason.

 

[zenthusiast]

The dream is to find the next Floyd

 

[Der Jaeger]

No way. Floyd is about to get a top of market deal. If the Bills do re-sign him (or franchise him for that matter), that's the marquee move, they're doing nothing else. He has as many sacks as Nick Bossa.

Are you willing to give a 32 year old Floyd a contract resembling what we gave Von?

You responded to your own post.

I don't think Floyd's going to get a top of the market deal as a 32 year old pass rusher.

 

[Zman5778]

Type of deal that gives a team that extra boost to make a run in the playoffs. A++++ signing, and I fear you're right. He's going to get paid this offseason.

I think he's going to get a raise, sure. But I don't think he's going to get "paid". Maybe a Za'Darius Smith-type 11-12M for one year.

I do wonder though if he's willing to take a little less to stay here. Maybe 8-9M for a year (as opposed to the 7M he got this year).

 

[Husko]

You responded to your own post.

I don't think Floyd's going to get a top of the market deal as a 32 year old pass rusher.

Looking for comps:

-Von Miller: Entering age 33 season, coming off 9.5 sacks and 19 TFL in 764 snaps - 120 million over 6 years (45 guaranteed)
-Shaq Barrett: Entering age 30 season, coming off 10 sacks and 9 TFL in 676 snaps - 68 million over 4 years (36 guaranteed)
-Emmanuel Ogbah: Entering age 29 season, coming off 9 sacks and 9 TFL in 755 snaps - 65 million over 4 years (32 guaranteed)
-Randy Gregory: Entering age 30 season, coming off 6 sacks and 4 TFL in 437 snaps - 70 million over 5 years (28 guaranteed)
-Demarcus Lawrence: Entering age 31 season, coming off 3 sacks and 5 TFL in 272 snaps- 40 million over 3 years (30 guaranteed)
-Cam Jordan: Entering age 34 season, coming off 8.5 sacks and 13 TFL in 790 snaps - 27 million over 2 years (fully guaranteed)
-Zadarius Smith: Entering age 31 season, coming off 10 sacks and 15 TFL in 771 snaps - 12 million over 1 year (fully guaranteed)
-Matt Judon: Entering age 31 season, coming off 15.5 sacks and 14 TFL in 860 snaps - 23 million over 2 years (14 guaranteed)

Floyd will be entering his age 32 season, is currently at 10.5 sacks and 8 TFL in 491 snaps, on pace for 13 sacks and 10 TFL in 596 snaps.

His production relative to his snaps crushes most of the players above. He's getting multiple years at over 10 million per. I've loved what he's brought to the team, but whether a team that needs a reset on its defensive spending should make an investment like that, I'm not so sure.

 

[Der Jaeger]

Looking for comps:

-Von Miller: Entering age 33 season, coming off 9.5 sacks and 19 TFL in 764 snaps - 120 million over 6 years (45 guaranteed)
-Shaq Barrett: Entering age 30 season, coming off 10 sacks and 9 TFL in 676 snaps - 68 million over 4 years (36 guaranteed)
-Emmanuel Ogbah: Entering age 29 season, coming off 9 sacks and 9 TFL in 755 snaps - 65 million over 4 years (32 guaranteed)
-Randy Gregory: Entering age 30 season, coming off 6 sacks and 4 TFL in 437 snaps - 70 million over 5 years (28 guaranteed)
-Demarcus Lawrence: Entering age 31 season, coming off 3 sacks and 5 TFL in 272 snaps- 40 million over 3 years (30 guaranteed)
-Cam Jordan: Entering age 34 season, coming off 8.5 sacks and 13 TFL in 790 snaps - 27 million over 2 years (fully guaranteed)
-Zadarius Smith: Entering age 31 season, coming off 10 sacks and 15 TFL in 771 snaps - 12 million over 1 year (fully guaranteed)
-Matt Judon: Entering age 31 season, coming off 15.5 sacks and 14 TFL in 860 snaps - 23 million over 2 years (14 guaranteed)

Floyd will be entering his age 32 season, is currently at 10.5 sacks and 8 TFL in 491 snaps, on pace for 13 sacks and 10 TFL in 596 snaps.

His production relative to his snaps crushes most of the players above. He's getting multiple years at over 10 million per. I've loved what he's brought to the team, but whether a team that needs a reset on its defensive spending should make an investment like that, I'm not so sure.

I’m not able to do the research right now, but what’s the backside production? That’ll impact what teams offer.

 

[Willgamesh]

Are you willing to give a 32 year old Floyd a contract resembling what we gave Von?

Yes because he has more production then Von when we signed him and has played 60less games in his career.

 

[Dirty Dog]

Why did Leonard Floyd get so little this past off-season after a 9 sack year when he was a year younger?

 

[Willgamesh]

Why did Leonard Floyd get so little this past off-season after a 9 sack year when he was a year younger?

people thought he was a product of the rams Dline.

 

[Waterfowlist]

Floyd is one dimensional. I think he will make about the same as he is making now, about 7-12 million. The bills just did some cap jujitsu to make it less than 3 for this year.

Great signing, but his production is a bit of smoke and mirrors.

 

[buffa dud]

Seriously Jerry? You're blaming the weather? It wasn't even bad.. I like how he is all but saying that the team needs to play at home under a roof to hang with people.

He's probably not wrong, but to me that indicates a lack of mental strength and focus. These guys are going to need to be prepared for adverse conditions, and if they aren't there's another team that will be. Professional athletes need to be militant in that regard.

 

[K8fool]

Dear buffalo bills win for the working class of our abused city. Help your sabres kids if you arent corrupted. Blows against this lame house of cards empire w every win. Do it just for yourselves. I'm sure im played as well but 5s a charm . It's an amazing challenge at least . When it's too tough for them its just right for us. That should be the new pledge in elementary. In Marvs words we trust

 

[Jim Bob]

It's too bad that Stef is miserable in Buffalo...

 

[Jim Bob]

Agreed, with the caveot that I'd like to get ahead of the looming offensive line issue. I took a LT in the 1st and a center in the 3rd of the mock from PFF I posted above, specifically because I'd like to avoid Allen running for his life once Dawkins and Morse are gone.

I think Beane is going to be able to re-structure enough players to make cap room, and get some team friendly deals from returning veterans.

I think Beane can re-sign Floyd for a reasonable amount, and get Lawson and Phillips to return. I also think Jones would return on a 1 year team friendly deal.

I'm not sure what he's going to do at safety. I like the idea about Lewis posted by @Husko. I also like the idea of converting a corner.

If you add someone like Rice to that receiver group, and get Sherfield to sign a team friendly deal (or someone like him), I think it'll suffice. Most of Allen's passes are going to Diggs and Kincaid anyway.

I think they have way too many needs for 2024 outside of the OL to take luxury picks in the first three rounds that in an ideal world never see the field in 2024.

I think the 2025 draft is the one where the OL bubbles up to the top of the needs list. Definitely use a day 3 pick on an OL, like usual. But, Dawkins is not going anywhere anytime soon, most likely.

I like Cam Lewis as a depth S. But, I do not like the idea of Lewis as one of your two starting safeties.

And I do not want anything to do with Phillips or Settle. Phillips has way too many dumb penalties and has not made enough of an impact given all the snaps he's gotten this year. And Settle has been meh his whole time as a Bill.

 

[26CornerBlitz]

Floyd is one dimensional. I think he will make about the same as he is making now, about 7-12 million. The bills just did some cap jujitsu to make it less than 3 for this year.

Great signing, but his production is a bit of smoke and mirrors.

Couldn't disagree any more! He's been an excellent pass rusher who's also good against the run.

 

[Der Jaeger]

Looking for comps:

-Von Miller: Entering age 33 season, coming off 9.5 sacks and 19 TFL in 764 snaps - 120 million over 6 years (45 guaranteed)
-Shaq Barrett: Entering age 30 season, coming off 10 sacks and 9 TFL in 676 snaps - 68 million over 4 years (36 guaranteed)
-Emmanuel Ogbah: Entering age 29 season, coming off 9 sacks and 9 TFL in 755 snaps - 65 million over 4 years (32 guaranteed)
-Randy Gregory: Entering age 30 season, coming off 6 sacks and 4 TFL in 437 snaps - 70 million over 5 years (28 guaranteed)
-Demarcus Lawrence: Entering age 31 season, coming off 3 sacks and 5 TFL in 272 snaps- 40 million over 3 years (30 guaranteed)
-Cam Jordan: Entering age 34 season, coming off 8.5 sacks and 13 TFL in 790 snaps - 27 million over 2 years (fully guaranteed)
-Zadarius Smith: Entering age 31 season, coming off 10 sacks and 15 TFL in 771 snaps - 12 million over 1 year (fully guaranteed)
-Matt Judon: Entering age 31 season, coming off 15.5 sacks and 14 TFL in 860 snaps - 23 million over 2 years (14 guaranteed)

Floyd will be entering his age 32 season, is currently at 10.5 sacks and 8 TFL in 491 snaps, on pace for 13 sacks and 10 TFL in 596 snaps.

His production relative to his snaps crushes most of the players above. He's getting multiple years at over 10 million per. I've loved what he's brought to the team, but whether a team that needs a reset on its defensive spending should make an investment like that, I'm not so sure.

Miller: 8 sacks the following season, which was cut short by injury
Barrett: 7.5 sacks over 2 seasons
Ogbah: 6.5 sacks over 2 seasons, with one season cut short
Gregory: 5 sacks in 2 seasons
Lawrence: 10 sacks in 2 seasons
Jordan: 2 sacks this season
Smith: 3.5 sacks this season
Judon: 4 sacks this season

If I were an NFL GM, there's no way I put that type of money into this type of production. Maybe GMs get smart, and Floyd doesn't get much. Then he returns to a team friendly deal. But there's no way Beane should sign him for market value.

 

[Der Jaeger]

I think they have way too many needs for 2024 outside of the OL to take luxury picks in the first three rounds that in an ideal world never see the field in 2024.

I think the 2025 draft is the one where the OL bubbles up to the top of the needs list. Definitely use a day 3 pick on an OL, like usual. But, Dawkins is not going anywhere anytime soon, most likely.

I like Cam Lewis as a depth S. But, I do not like the idea of Lewis as one of your two starting safeties.

And I do not want anything to do with Phillips or Settle. Phillips has way too many dumb penalties and has not made enough of an impact given all the snaps he's gotten this year. And Settle has been meh his whole time as a Bill.

I don't think they've got that many needs. Starting lineup with no re-signings or rookies:

WR: Shakir, Harty
WR: Diggs, Shorter
LT: Dawkins, Van Demark
LG: McGovern, Bates
C: Morse
RG: Torrence, Anderson
RT: Brown
TE: Knox, Davidson
TE: Kincaid
QB: Allen
RB: Cook, Hines, Gilliam

LE: Rousseau
DT: Oliver
NT:
RE: Miller, Jonathan
LB: Bernard, Spector
LB: Milano, Williams
NB: Johnson, Neal
CB: Douglas, Elam
CB: Benford, White
SS: Poyer, Hamlin
FS:

If the Bills re-structure basically everyone with the option to do so on Spotrac, they'll have around $20M in cap space, with around $10M for veterans. The above list has 19 offensive players and 16 defensive players. They'll need 9 defenders and 6 offensive players to fill our the rosters. 10 of them are likely to be rookies, leaving about $10M for 5 players.

They key spots needed are S and DT, with some attention needed at DE and WR. They'll likely use the veteran money to go after those positions.

So I see nothing wrong with investing in the future with offensive line. The Bills OL has been healthy all year and we're seeing the results. Morse and Dawkins will 33 and 31 when time comes to re-sign or replace. I've got no interest in re-signing either at that age. I've got no interest in plugging in rookies. I've got no interest in playing for high dollar players as replacements.

 

[Jim Bob]

I don't think they've got that many needs. Starting lineup with no re-signings or rookies:

WR: Shakir, Harty
WR: Diggs, Shorter
LT: Dawkins, Van Demark
LG: McGovern, Bates
C: Morse
RG: Torrence, Anderson
RT: Brown
TE: Knox, Davidson
TE: Kincaid
QB: Allen
RB: Cook, Hines, Gilliam

LE: Rousseau
DT: Oliver
NT:
RE: Miller, Jonathan
LB: Bernard, Spector
LB: Milano, Williams
NB: Johnson, Neal
CB: Douglas, Elam
CB: Benford, White
SS: Poyer, Hamlin
FS:

If the Bills re-structure basically everyone with the option to do so on Spotrac, they'll have around $20M in cap space, with around $10M for veterans. The above list has 19 offensive players and 16 defensive players. They'll need 9 defenders and 6 offensive players to fill our the rosters. 10 of them are likely to be rookies, leaving about $10M for 5 players.

They key spots needed are S and DT, with some attention needed at DE and WR. They'll likely use the veteran money to go after those positions.

So I see nothing wrong with investing in the future with offensive line. The Bills OL has been healthy all year and we're seeing the results. Morse and Dawkins will 33 and 31 when time comes to re-sign or replace. I've got no interest in re-signing either at that age. I've got no interest in plugging in rookies. I've got no interest in playing for high dollar players as replacements.

They have 9 OL signed for next year. I don't see the value in spending multiple day 1 & 2 picks on developmental guys on the OL when there are not a lot of open roster spots and they have needs for guys that will get meaningful snaps at S, DT, DE, and WR. And with so little cap space to add FAs, it is going to he a huge challenge to add starter level talent in FA this summer.

 

[GrierIsGod123]

Working some more playoff prediction machine stuff.

If the games go without upsets, and the Bills go 2-0 headed into week 18, that game is for the division and a playoff spot, with the Bills needing to win to get into the playoffs.

I had Miami winning against Dallas and losing to Baltimore.

If that holds, the Bills would host Miami in the 1st round of the playoffs.

I'll be honest ... that last game against Miami is a bit scary. I wish it didn't have to come down to that to get in. They've gotta be looking for revenge from when we knocked them out of the playoffs in Week 17 several years back. Also after that ass whooping from earlier in the year. That game is going to mean a ton to them and will NOT come easy. Plus their defense has been playing much better since we last met. We'd never hear the end of it from Dolphins fans if they knock us out.

On the other side, Allen just seems to own them and is in their heads a bit. If anything the pressure is on them a bit. I'm thinking Joe Brady could scheme up some nice plays against them and plus Allen should be scrambling for chunk plays which he tends to do when playing Miami. We need all hands on deck for that game, which hopefully means Daquan is gearing up for that one.

There's just something telling me that we're due for a loss to them in a meaningful game.

 

[missingmika]

I don't think they've got that many needs. Starting lineup with no re-signings or rookies:

WR: Shakir, Harty
WR: Diggs, Shorter
LT: Dawkins, Van Demark
LG: McGovern, Bates
C: Morse
RG: Torrence, Anderson
RT: Brown
TE: Knox, Davidson
TE: Kincaid
QB: Allen
RB: Cook, Hines, Gilliam

LE: Rousseau
DT: Oliver
NT:
RE: Miller, Jonathan
LB: Bernard, Spector
LB: Milano, Williams
NB: Johnson, Neal
CB: Douglas, Elam
CB: Benford, White
SS: Poyer, Hamlin
FS:

If the Bills re-structure basically everyone with the option to do so on Spotrac, they'll have around $20M in cap space, with around $10M for veterans. The above list has 19 offensive players and 16 defensive players. They'll need 9 defenders and 6 offensive players to fill our the rosters. 10 of them are likely to be rookies, leaving about $10M for 5 players.

They key spots needed are S and DT, with some attention needed at DE and WR. They'll likely use the veteran money to go after those positions.

So I see nothing wrong with investing in the future with offensive line. The Bills OL has been healthy all year and we're seeing the results. Morse and Dawkins will 33 and 31 when time comes to re-sign or replace. I've got no interest in re-signing either at that age. I've got no interest in plugging in rookies. I've got no interest in playing for high dollar players as replacements.

Morris is an ERFA, I can’t see him not back. That’s one more spot at a low dollar amount.

 

[Der Jaeger]

They have 9 OL signed for next year. I don't see the value in spending multiple day 1 & 2 picks on developmental guys on the OL when there are not a lot of open roster spots and they have needs for guys that will get meaningful snaps at S, DT, DE, and WR. And with so little cap space to add FAs, it is going to he a huge challenge to add starter level talent in FA this summer.

The only serviceable backup is Bates, so the total numbers are moot.

When you look at the longer term success that teams like the Eagles have, they get day 1 and day 2 developmental picks and groom them.

S and DT are easy to find on the free agent market at lower prices. And WR isn't an immediate need with the way Brady is calling plays and how invisiable Davis is. They could probably just re-sign Sherfield to Davis' spot and be fine.

I'll be honest ... that last game against Miami is a bit scary. I wish it didn't have to come down to that to get in. They've gotta be looking for revenge from when we knocked them out of the playoffs in Week 17 several years back. Also after that ass whooping from earlier in the year. That game is going to mean a ton to them and will NOT come easy. Plus their defense has been playing much better since we last met. We'd never hear the end of it from Dolphins fans if they knock us out.

On the other side, Allen just seems to own them and is in their heads a bit. If anything the pressure is on them a bit. I'm thinking Joe Brady could scheme up some nice plays against them and plus Allen should be scrambling for chunk plays which he tends to do when playing Miami. We need all hands on deck for that game, which hopefully means Daquan is gearing up for that one.

There's just something telling me that we're due for a loss to them in a meaningful game.

Miami has played 3 opponents who are considered elite or top teams this season: Buffalo, KC, and Philadephia. They are 0-3 in those games. And they've got games against Dallas and Baltimore coming up.

And Buffalo will be playing for their playoffs. Miami will already be in. I think the motivation on Miami's side won't be as great.

 

[Jim Bob]

The only serviceable backup is Bates, so the total numbers are moot.

I have a feeling the Bills hold both Anderson and Van Demark in higher esteem than you do.

 

[kirby11]

Question for the fantasy football players here: what are y'all doing for defense this week?

I have CIN, but I'm debating picking up WAS or IND. I feel like the Steelers offer a safe floor, but not a massive ceiling--they're just gonna punt a lot and put up 13ish points. My concern there is if Browning struggles, turns the ball over more than he has the last few games, and Pittsburgh's defense gives their offense enough short fields to put up more points.

Washington's defense has been pretty bad all season, but they should be alright going up against Siemian if Wilson is out. I think Indy would be fairly safe, also, but Heinicke's not as terrible as Ridder. If GB's defense wasn't so atrocious, I'd snag them since they're playing CAR, but Joe Barry has been a disaster.