Buffalo Bills Season's End: The Off-Seasons Starts Now

[kirby11]

Toney was like a foot offsides. It wasn’t even close.

Offensive offsides has been a point of emphasis for the refs this year. I think it’s been called 11+ times this season.

That Mahomes, Reid (etc) are all making such a big stink about how they should have been warned or the refs should have just let it go speaks to how damn spoiled they are, always getting calls going their way.

If they want to see bad officiating truly impact the outcome of a game, they should watch the Bills/Eagles game.

On top of Toney lining up offside, Jawaan Taylor was yet again not on the line of scrimmage. He's gotten to line up way back of where he should for pretty much the entire season. I think they called him a bunch for it after week 1 because it was so egregious and was the only game on during the opening of the season, but they've pretty much let it go otherwise.

 

[Ace]

On top of Toney lining up offside, Jawaan Taylor was yet again not on the line of scrimmage. He's gotten to line up way back of where he should for pretty much the entire season. I think they called him a bunch for it after week 1 because it was so egregious and was the only game on during the opening of the season, but they've pretty much let it go otherwise.

They let it go most of week 1 too. It became the topic of conversation all game that they were letting him line up so illegally for so long. They threw a late flag that helped cost them the game. Which means these idiots have now cost themselves TWICE on not being able to line up on the last drive

 

[Zman5778]

On top of Toney lining up offside, Jawaan Taylor was yet again not on the line of scrimmage. He's gotten to line up way back of where he should for pretty much the entire season. I think they called him a bunch for it after week 1 because it was so egregious and was the only game on during the opening of the season, but they've pretty much let it go otherwise.

Taylor was closer to being on the LOS than Toney was to being onside. At least there's a case to be made that MAYBE Taylor's helmet is lined up with the very last bit of the center's ass.......which is technically onsides. If the camera isn't EXACTLY down the LOS, you can claim that maybe Taylor is onside.

Toney's closer to being on the defensive side of the ball than the offensive side of the ball.

 

[Jim Bob]

 

[SundherDome]

On top of Toney lining up offside, Jawaan Taylor was yet again not on the line of scrimmage. He's gotten to line up way back of where he should for pretty much the entire season. I think they called him a bunch for it after week 1 because it was so egregious and was the only game on during the opening of the season, but they've pretty much let it go otherwise.

Both tackles were illegal.

For clarity, the NFL rule book states that at least seven offensive players must be up on the line of scrimmage. This typically includes all five offensive linemen and then two skill-position players. For the linemen, they must have a body part breaking the imaginary line drawn sideline-to-sideline starting at the center’s belt. Usually, this is the helmet’s crown.

 

[Zman5778]

Both tackles were illegal.

LT looks good to me. I know the rule says "belt of the center", but the application is usually the end of the center's ass. LT's helmet looks lined up to the center's butt to me.

RT is a shade behind that.

 

[Dingo44]

 

[Taro Tsujimoto]

 

[SundherDome]

LT looks good to me. I know the rule says "belt of the center", but the application is usually the end of the center's ass. LT's helmet looks lined up to the center's butt to me.

RT is a shade behind that.

Then they should update the rule. If your gunna have a rule, there shouldn't be a ton of gray in it.

This is literally insane lol

 

[sabresfan129103]

NFL seems to want to be more like WWE by the day, or at least that is how some people want it to be. Either you follow the rules or you don't.

Not calling that offsides is akin to when the ref in wrestling is distracted and someone comes in the ring hits a guy with a chair and gets the pinfall.

 

[oldgoalie]

Who do the Chiefs play next?
God help them.

 

[Zman5778]

Who do the Chiefs play next?
God help them.

Patriots.

I'd root for the meteor.......but it's going to be satisfying AF to see the Pats get absolutely demolished.

 

[misterchainsaw]

Patriots.

I'd root for the meteor.......but it's going to be satisfying AF to see the Pats get absolutely demolished.

I kinda hope the refs hit them with everything in the book and it's close again. Another KC loss definitely puts them in play at 10-7 if Denver finishes strong.

 

[Selanne00008]

Zappe and Pats D can absolutely take down the Chiefs. Maybe 3 out of 10 games. Let it just be one of those 3.. Who saw the jets beating houston?

Bills Cowboys is going to be a great watch. i wish Diggs could play against his brother. Although, it helps the Bills he's not healthy..

 

[Selanne00008]

-----------------------------Record ----- AFC Record -------- Schedule:
1st wild card: Browns ---- - 8-5 --------- 6-3 ------------- Bears, Texans, Jets, Bengals
2nd wild card: Stealers ---- 7-6 --------- 5-4 ------------ Colts, Bengals, Seahawks, Ravens
3rd wild card: Colts -------- 7-6 --------- 5-4 ------------- Stealers, Falcons, Raiders, Texans
-------------------------
-----------------------------Record ----- AFC Record -------- Schedule:
4th: In the Hunt: Texans----- 7-6 --------4-4 ------------- Titans, Browns, Titans, Colts
5th In the Hunt: Broncos----7-6 --------4-5 --------------Lions, Patriots, Chargers, Raiders
6th In the Hunt: Bengals-----7-6 --------3-6 -------------Vikings, Stealers, Chiefs, Browns
7th In the Hunt: Bills ---------7-6 ------- 4-5 -------------Cowboys, Chargers, Patriots, Dolphins

Note: Chiefs and jags are both 8-5 leading their divisions. Chiefs are 6-2 in the conference. Jags are 6-4.

I thought the above might help clear it up for me but not yet. There's plenty of head to head games in there which can be good or bad. I think in general it's good as there are guaranteed L's.


Couple of things I'm thinking:
We want the Stealers to beat the Colts. Why? I think the Stealers lose 2, if not the other 3 games on their schedule with Bengals, Seahawks and Ravens. End up 9-8 or even 8-9.

Concerned the Colts and Browns have it too easy and will end up 10-7 and claim 2 of the 3 spots. leaving only 1 for all4 teams in the hunt.

I guess the bills are on the bottom because of head to head losses and not conference record? I thought we might be ahead of the Bengals based on AFC record, even though we lost to them.

It looks tough, but, anyone can beat anyone!

 

[Jim Bob]

 

[misterchainsaw]

-----------------------------Record ----- AFC Record -------- Schedule:
1st wild card: Browns ---- - 8-5 --------- 6-3 ------------- Bears, Texans, Jets, Bengals
2nd wild card: Stealers ---- 7-6 --------- 5-4 ------------ Colts, Bengals, Seahawks, Ravens
3rd wild card: Colts -------- 7-6 --------- 5-4 ------------- Stealers, Falcons, Raiders, Texans
-------------------------
-----------------------------Record ----- AFC Record -------- Schedule:
4th: In the Hunt: Texans----- 7-6 --------4-4 ------------- Titans, Browns, Titans, Colts
5th In the Hunt: Broncos----7-6 --------4-5 --------------Lions, Patriots, Chargers, Raiders
6th In the Hunt: Bengals-----7-6 --------3-6 -------------Vikings, Stealers, Chiefs, Browns
7th In the Hunt: Bills ---------7-6 ------- 4-5 -------------Cowboys, Chargers, Patriots, Dolphins

Note: Chiefs and jags are both 8-5 leading their divisions. Chiefs are 6-2 in the conference. Jags are 6-4.

I thought the above might help clear it up for me but not yet. There's plenty of head to head games in there which can be good or bad. I think in general it's good as there are guaranteed L's.


Couple of things I'm thinking:
We want the Stealers to beat the Colts. Why? I think the Stealers lose 2, if not the other 3 games on their schedule with Bengals, Seahawks and Ravens. End up 9-8 or even 8-9.

Concerned the Colts and Browns have it too easy and will end up 10-7 and claim 2 of the 3 spots. leaving only 1 for all4 teams in the hunt.

I guess the bills are on the bottom because of head to head losses and not conference record? I thought we might be ahead of the Bengals based on AFC record, even though we lost to them.

It looks tough, but, anyone can beat anyone!

So multiple team tiebreakers are re-evaluated every time a spot is decided. Additionally, only one team per division can be involved in a tiebreaker (so all divisional tiebreakers get evaluated first)

So here's how this breaks down:

For #6: Inside divisions: Steelers top Browns on H2H, Colts beat Texans on H2H. Final tiebreaker is between Steelers/Colts/Broncos/Bills. After the conference record "round", only the Steelers and Colts are left. Steelers beat Colts on common opponents.

For #7: Inside divisions: Colts beat Texans on h2h. Final tiebreaker is between Bengals/Colts/Broncos/Bills. Colts win on conference record.

For #8: Final tiebreaker is between Bengals/Texans/Broncos/Bills, Texans win on conference record

For #9: Final tiebreaker is between Bengals/Broncos/Bills. Bills are eliminated because they were swept by the other two, then the Broncos beat the Bengals on conference record

For #10: Final tiebreaker is between Bengals/Bills, Bengals win tiebreaker on H2H

There's not really any way past the Bengals in a tiebreaker for us unfortunately since they also beat the Colts and our head to head tiebreakers aren't great either against teams in the mix (strength of victory/common opponents). There are ways past teams like the Broncos using the Colts as a buffer to a H2H loss if conference results fall right, however.

 

[Der Jaeger]

-----------------------------Record ----- AFC Record -------- Schedule:
1st wild card: Browns ---- - 8-5 --------- 6-3 ------------- Bears, Texans, Jets, Bengals
2nd wild card: Stealers ---- 7-6 --------- 5-4 ------------ Colts, Bengals, Seahawks, Ravens
3rd wild card: Colts -------- 7-6 --------- 5-4 ------------- Stealers, Falcons, Raiders, Texans
-------------------------
-----------------------------Record ----- AFC Record -------- Schedule:
4th: In the Hunt: Texans----- 7-6 --------4-4 ------------- Titans, Browns, Titans, Colts
5th In the Hunt: Broncos----7-6 --------4-5 --------------Lions, Patriots, Chargers, Raiders
6th In the Hunt: Bengals-----7-6 --------3-6 -------------Vikings, Stealers, Chiefs, Browns
7th In the Hunt: Bills ---------7-6 ------- 4-5 -------------Cowboys, Chargers, Patriots, Dolphins

Note: Chiefs and jags are both 8-5 leading their divisions. Chiefs are 6-2 in the conference. Jags are 6-4.

I thought the above might help clear it up for me but not yet. There's plenty of head to head games in there which can be good or bad. I think in general it's good as there are guaranteed L's.


Couple of things I'm thinking:
We want the Stealers to beat the Colts. Why? I think the Stealers lose 2, if not the other 3 games on their schedule with Bengals, Seahawks and Ravens. End up 9-8 or even 8-9.

Concerned the Colts and Browns have it too easy and will end up 10-7 and claim 2 of the 3 spots. leaving only 1 for all4 teams in the hunt.

I guess the bills are on the bottom because of head to head losses and not conference record? I thought we might be ahead of the Bengals based on AFC record, even though we lost to them.

It looks tough, but, anyone can beat anyone!

So multiple team tiebreakers are re-evaluated every time a spot is decided. Additionally, only one team per division can be involved in a tiebreaker (so all divisional tiebreakers get evaluated first)

So here's how this breaks down:

For #6: Inside divisions: Steelers top Browns on H2H, Colts beat Texans on H2H. Final tiebreaker is between Steelers/Colts/Broncos/Bills. After the conference record "round", only the Steelers and Colts are left. Steelers beat Colts on common opponents.

For #7: Inside divisions: Colts beat Texans on h2h. Final tiebreaker is between Bengals/Colts/Broncos/Bills. Colts win on conference record.

For #8: Final tiebreaker is between Bengals/Texans/Broncos/Bills, Texans win on conference record

For #9: Final tiebreaker is between Bengals/Broncos/Bills. Bills are eliminated because they were swept by the other two, then the Broncos beat the Bengals on conference record

For #10: Final tiebreaker is between Bengals/Bills, Bengals win tiebreaker on H2H

There's not really any way past the Bengals in a tiebreaker for us unfortunately since they also beat the Colts and our head to head tiebreakers aren't great either against teams in the mix (strength of victory/common opponents). There are ways past teams like the Broncos using the Colts as a buffer to a H2H loss if conference results fall right, however.

Bills will need to go 4-0 to get around tiebreakers. Or a lot of lower teams to beat the teams currently at 7-6.

 

[Jim Bob]

 

[misterchainsaw]

Bills will need to go 4-0 to get around tiebreakers. Or a lot of lower teams to beat the teams currently at 7-6.

If the Colts beat the Falcons and we lose to Dallas but both end up 10-7, we'd have the same conference record as Indianapolis but we would beat them on common opponents. Not only does that mean we'd win a head to head tiebreaker with Indy, we'd also win a 3 way tiebreaker with us, Indy, and X, where X is a team with a worse conference record that did not beat both us and Indianapolis. A 3 team tiebreaker where X is a team with the same conference record (and not wins over both us and IND) would go to strength of victory.

Long story short is if the first part above comes through we'd win all tiebreakers against Indy and would also get past Denver at 10-7 (as strength of schedule stands now) if both Indy and Denver are 10-7.

Pittsburgh/Cleveland/Cincinnati/Jacksonville will finish above us in all tiebreaker scenarios at 10-7
Denver/Indy/Texans depends (see above - and Indy can trap the Texans below them)

Baltimore, if they manage to lose their last 4 games, would plummet to the bottom of the tiebreakers - we could win a SoV tiebreaker against them even if we beat Dallas and lose to someone else (not the Chargers). They could also trap Cincy/Cleveland beneath them if the divisional tiebreakers work out right - this is a long shot though. But Baltimores schedule IS very difficult coming in.

Here's a scenario where the Bills get out of an 6 team 10-7 logjam in 1st (with Pittsburgh also winning the AFC North at 10-7). Baltimore traps Cincy and Cleveland behind them in divisional tiebreakers, and the Colts trap the Texans behind them. The tiebreaker that gets evaluated first is Bills/Baltimore/Indy - Baltimore drops out on conference record and the Bills beat Indy on common opponents.

 

[Selanne00008]

Bills will need to go 4-0 to get around tiebreakers. Or a lot of lower teams to beat the teams currently at 7-6.

Unfortunately. I think what you're saying is right. i think I would go a step further and predict that 10-7 doesn't get us in. It can happen. but as soon as we drop a game here, I am way less than hopeful.

 

[HaNotsri]

Unfortunately. I think what you're saying is right. i think I would go a step further and predict that 10-7 doesn't get us in. It can happen. but as soon as we drop a game here, I am way less than hopeful.

Playoffs started yesterday for the Bills. They need a long run.

 

[Der Jaeger]

Unfortunately. I think what you're saying is right. i think I would go a step further and predict that 10-7 doesn't get us in. It can happen. but as soon as we drop a game here, I am way less than hopeful.

Playoffs started yesterday for the Bills. They need a long run.

I just did 3 playoff simulators on 3 different sites. I picked the favorites in most cases and didn't go for any upsets.

When the Bills went 4-0, they got in as the 7th seed. If they lost, they didn't get in.

Bills will need to run the table unless there are upsets.

 

[Mike McDermott]

GR made the rare valid point a few minutes ago. Mahomes was totally in tilt after the call on Toney screaming after each play at the refs. If he had stayed calm he probably could have actually moved the ball on their remaining downs instead of throwing incompletions.

 

[misterchainsaw]

I just did 3 playoff simulators on 3 different sites. I picked the favorites in most cases and didn't go for any upsets.

When the Bills went 4-0, they got in as the 7th seed. If they lost, they didn't get in.

Bills will need to run the table unless there are upsets.

But if there were absolutely no upsets the rest of the way that in itself would be an upset. It's not like we're talking about games where the underdogs are severely outclassed. Just like the odds of rolling a 1-4 on a 6 sided die 15 times in a row is actually very low, the odds of there being NO upsets the rest of the way is also very low.

Playoffstatus has the Bills at 55% chance to get in at 10-7 (they decide the odds of each game by each teams current record - importantly not by coin flip.) I see no reason to question that percentage. If anything it's a little low if Stroud misses a week or two with his concussion.