Buffalo Bills Season's End: The Off-Seasons Starts Now

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1 big issue for next year is according to Spotrac, we are $40 mil over next years projected salary cap. There is only so much that can be restructured. There will be cuts and most likely Morse, T Johnson, Neal, harty, Gilliam and Hines will be gone. Next year may be a retool year.

We can clear $47M with 5 easy moves (Harty & Hines might even take pay cuts to stay)

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White is probably the most controversial move just because of how well liked he is in the locker room and in the community, but I don't see how we can keep him around at that cap hit for another two years.



They could use a developmental center...


*Checks Bio

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Yeah, I know someone that would like him (then again, I thought the same thing about Creed Humphry :laugh:)
 

I'm done with Gabe. He's a good blocker, but so annoyingly inconsistent with his hands.

Also, how annoying is it that one of two Cook's drops is one that would've been an easy TD that would've gone a long way toward winning the game.
 
I'm done with Gabe. He's a good blocker, but so annoyingly inconsistent with his hands.

Also, how annoying is it that one of two Cook's drops is one that would've been an easy TD that would've gone a long way toward winning the game.
Gabe is best as WR3 or WR4 and not as the 2nd most targeted WR on the roster.

And while I really like Shakir, I feel he is best as WR3.

That is why I think I will enter the offseason wanting a 1st round WR that can be WR2 in 2024 and have the upside to be WR1 when the Diggs era comes to an end.
 
If I'm being entirely honest, I don't want to see those two (Davis and Knox) get more than 4-6 targets a game, because any more than that and I feel like you risk drives. Davis and Knox are essentially a coin flip. They have 94 targets this year and 55 receptions. When you only get 2-4 drives per quarter, you can't have coin flips. You get three shots to move the ball 9/10 yards, and some of those plays are going to be rushes that go absolutely nowhere. Other plays are goin to be penalties. There are going to be sacks, throwaways, etc. You need more of Diggs, Kincaid, Cook (even though he dropped the one pass against the Eagles he still has an 84 catch%) and Shakir.
 
Von Miller has potentially played his last down in the NFL, warrant issued for his arrest.

WFAA article: Accused of Felony Domestic Abuse of Pregnant Girlfriend
Unless he chooses to retire, I doubt a DV arrest ends his career. It's barely been a chink for other high profile players. More likely a suspension.

I do wonder if the Bills end up trying to use this to void the contract.

Gabe is best as WR3 or WR4 and not as the 2nd most targeted WR on the roster.

And while I really like Shakir, I feel he is best as WR3.

That is why I think I will enter the offseason wanting a 1st round WR that can be WR2 in 2024 and have the upside to be WR1 when the Diggs era comes to an end.
Yeah, if we're taking a first round WR, it needs to be an eye towards a future #1
 
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Unless he chooses to retire, I doubt a DV arrest ends his career. It's barely been a chink for other high profile players. More likely a suspension.

I do wonder if the Bills end up trying to use this to void the contract.

I wanted to say that Beane would never do something like that, but I just remembered Araiza and Hines.
 
JFC.

Can they just get rid of him if that violates the conduct policy?

I'm with everyone else here. I was living in the Corey Perry thread the last 3 days where you can terminate the contract and there's not much in the way of dead cap stuff at all. .

If there is conduct here that justfies nuking the contract my assumption because it's the NFL was that there would still be dead cap. IF that is NOT the case, then I would try my hardest to get the contract off the books. That would be HUGE!
 
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Gabe is best as WR3 or WR4 and not as the 2nd most targeted WR on the roster.

And while I really like Shakir, I feel he is best as WR3.

That is why I think I will enter the offseason wanting a 1st round WR that can be WR2 in 2024 and have the upside to be WR1 when the Diggs era comes to an end.
And given the talent among the top 4 WRs of this class......I want Beane to be AGGRESSIVE in going to get one.
I'm in agreement that the Bills need to get a better receiver than Gabe Davis. They just don't need to use a 1st round pick on that player. I did this report for Buffalo Rumblings about a decade ago, so the numbers aren't current, but the idea is the same. I'll re-do the research for the last 10 years if I get time.

Buffalo Rumblings: 10 Years of 1st Round Receivers

Diggs himself is not a first rounder. Shakir's scouting report looks a lot like Diggs coming out of Maryland, so I wouldn't discount him from the #2 receiver talk.

In the past decade, the number of receivers drafted in the 1st round who were actively their team's #1 receiver on a Super Bowl winner is 2: Mike Evans and Demaryius Thomas. Kupp, Hill, Jeffreys, etc. were not 1st rounders. Teams are winning Super Bowls without the Calvin Johnson's of the world.

The data suggests that Buffalo can get a good receiver in the 2nd or 3rd round. Troy Franklin, Brendan Rice, Tory Horton, etc. If the Bills have a blue-chip OT or pass rusher available, that should be the pick. Or if a unique player like Cooper DeJean is available, he should be under heavy consideration. Unless they somehow work their way into drafting Harrison, I'm passing on a receiver.

Taking a receiver in the 1st round comes across as a fan's take to solving a problem and not what the organization should do. Especially when the information shows that receivers are there outside of the top 16, bust rate is high inside the top 16, and that teams win Super Bowls regularly without high first round receivers.

I don't think having a better #2 over Gabe Davis changes much in the game against the Eagles. I don't think it changes much for the season. Had Brady been calling games since week 5, that changes things. I don't see this season or last season changing much if the team had Tee Higgins, as an example, instead of Gabe Davis.

After getting a franchise QB, the two most important things that a team can do are protect that QB and find rushers to go get the opposing QB. The Bills already have Diggs and Kincaid, with Shakir proving his worth and Knox returning at some point. Allocate resources for receivers. It just shouldn't be the 1st round pick.
 
I'm in agreement that the Bills need to get a better receiver than Gabe Davis. They just don't need to use a 1st round pick on that player. I did this report for Buffalo Rumblings about a decade ago, so the numbers aren't current, but the idea is the same. I'll re-do the research for the last 10 years if I get time.

Buffalo Rumblings: 10 Years of 1st Round Receivers

Diggs himself is not a first rounder. Shakir's scouting report looks a lot like Diggs coming out of Maryland, so I wouldn't discount him from the #2 receiver talk.

In the past decade, the number of receivers drafted in the 1st round who were actively their team's #1 receiver on a Super Bowl winner is 2: Mike Evans and Demaryius Thomas. Kupp, Hill, Jeffreys, etc. were not 1st rounders. Teams are winning Super Bowls without the Calvin Johnson's of the world.

The data suggests that Buffalo can get a good receiver in the 2nd or 3rd round. Troy Franklin, Brendan Rice, Tory Horton, etc. If the Bills have a blue-chip OT or pass rusher available, that should be the pick. Or if a unique player like Cooper DeJean is available, he should be under heavy consideration. Unless they somehow work their way into drafting Harrison, I'm passing on a receiver.

Taking a receiver in the 1st round comes across as a fan's take to solving a problem and not what the organization should do. Especially when the information shows that receivers are there outside of the top 16, bust rate is high inside the top 16, and that teams win Super Bowls regularly without high first round receivers.

I don't think having a better #2 over Gabe Davis changes much in the game against the Eagles. I don't think it changes much for the season. Had Brady been calling games since week 5, that changes things. I don't see this season or last season changing much if the team had Tee Higgins, as an example, instead of Gabe Davis.

After getting a franchise QB, the two most important things that a team can do are protect that QB and find rushers to go get the opposing QB. The Bills already have Diggs and Kincaid, with Shakir proving his worth and Knox returning at some point. Allocate resources for receivers. It just shouldn't be the 1st round pick.
Just to point out Hill was a first round talent and would have been a very high pick if not for the really bad DV stuff. So if we include him, and then also include super bowl losers:
-AJ Brown, Smith, Chase, Evans, Hill, Hill again, Aiyuk, Cooks

That's 8 first round WRs + Hill on the last 10 super bowl finalists. 9 if you want to count pick 2.1 in Higgins.

I might run the numbers later, but while WRs used to have a higher bust rate, my gut tells me over the last 5-10 years it's become one of the safest first round positions to draft. It's much more volatile later in the draft, though.
 
Re: Miller/Allegations

I will say this is beyond 'investigating', this is 'warrant issued', so the police/DA have seen something that they felt was enough to press charges. So this is a little beyond he said/she said

That being said, there isn't much to say other than 'let the process play itself out'

I'm glad the woman didn't have to go to the hospital. That means the worse case scenario is the woman was hurt, but not to the point her or the baby were in any life threatening situation.

I hope justice is served and the truth comes out either way. But....until either charges are dropped or a plea deal/verdict is reached, there will never be much to say. I'm fine with sitting Von until the charges are cleared up either way.
 
I might run the numbers later, but while WRs used to have a higher bust rate, my gut tells me over the last 5-10 years it's become one of the safest first round positions to draft. It's much more volatile later in the draft, though.
My gut says more or less the same thing. As an addendum -- my gut also tells me that it's harder to find WR1s later in the draft than it used to be. The speedy slot/WR3 types are now the easier ones to find later.
 
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2022
First round: London, Wilson, Olave, Williams, Dotson, Burks
Day 2: Watson, Robinson, MEtchie, Thorton, Pickens, Piece, Sky, Velus, Tolbert, Bell, Gray

2021
First round: Chase, Waddle, Smith, Toney, Bateman
Day 2: Elijah Moore, Rondale Moore, Eskridge, Tutu, Terrace Marshall, Josh Palmer, Dyami Brown, Amari Rodgers, Nico Collins, Anthony Schwartz

2020
First round: Ruggs, Jeudy, Lamb, Raegor, Jefferson, Aiyuk
Day 2: Higgins, Pittman, Shenault, Hamler, Claypool, Jefferson, Mims, Bowden, Bryan Edwards, Duvernay

Sure, there are some first round busts in there. But my gosh, day 2 is little more than a blind dart throw. If you want a WR1, the higher you pick the better your chance of success. Not saying we need to force the issue and take a WR1 next draft, but if we're thinking about Diggs long term replacement, and one of those top 4 falls to us, it probably represents our best chance in awhile to snag one.
 
Re: Miller/Allegations

I will say this is beyond 'investigating', this is 'warrant issued', so the police/DA have seen something that they felt was enough to press charges. So this is a little beyond he said/she said

That being said, there isn't much to say other than 'let the process play itself out'

I'm glad the woman didn't have to go to the hospital. That means the worse case scenario is the woman was hurt, but not to the point her or the baby were in any life threatening situation.

I hope justice is served and the truth comes out either way. But....until either charges are dropped or a plea deal/verdict is reached, there will never be much to say. I'm fine with sitting Von until the charges are cleared up either way.
Three comments:
As I've typed before, I am not a lawyer, but I play one on HFboards...
1. Texas law may require a certain level of charge be brought in any domestic violence case where certain objective thresholds of evidence are seen by law enforcement.
2. Texas law may require a certain level of charge be brought in any domestic violence case where the complainant wishes to press charges, regardless of evidence seen by law enforcement.
3. Bills aren't going to have direct information. Nothing from them should be interpreted as mealy-mouthed. Since they lack no more right to any information than you and I do, they will need to get their info from NFL Security, the "down-low" branch of the NFL, typically ex-LEOs, who traditionally work with LEO in NFL franchise cities to keep things covered up and/or head them off before there are NFL-shield-tarnishing issues, when possible.

I, like you/many, am neither exonerating Von Miller nor condemning the victims.
 
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Three comments:
As I've typed before, I am not a lawyer, but I play one on HFboards...
1. Texas law may require a certain level of charge be brought in any domestic violence case where certain objective thresholds of evidence are seen by law enforcement.
2. Texas law may require a certain level of charge be brought in any domestic violence case where the complainant wishes to press charges, regardless of evidence seen by law enforcement.
3. Bills aren't going to have direct information. Nothing from them should be interpreted as mealy-mouthed. Since they lack no more right to any information than you and I do, they will need to get their info from NFL Security, the "down-low" branch of the NFL, typically ex-LEOs, who traditionally work with LEO in NFL franchise cities to keep things covered up and/or head them off before there are NFL-shield-tarnishing issues, when possible.

I, like you/many, am neither exonerating Von Miller nor condemning the victims.
Yeah, I’ll just add on: a civilian saying a crime was committed against me will usually be enough for probably cause to arrest, much to the chagrin of my clients
 
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