Some prospects you were shocked were passed by specific teams at the draft?

[Crazy Cizikas]

Still shocked the Habs took Carey Price over Brule, lol.

I’m still shocked they took Kostitsyn. The guy I wanted was Zach Parise, but I thought they’d take a big NAmerican forward.

I was shocked that the Isles took Robert Nilsson over Parise.

 

[LemonSauceD]

Don’t think there’s nothing that can beat Juolevi over Tkachuk.

For more recent, I would say Canucks drafting Klimovich (who was some random B leaguer in f***ing Belarus with like 0.70ppg but fooled Benning with his u18 performance) over Stankoven.

Chicago passing on Demidov is also brutal.

 

[57special]

These are all MN based...sorry.

EDM not taking Wallstedt
PHI not taking Buium when he fell to them at 12.
No one taking Heidt till 64th pick.
MN not taking Calum Ritchie or Edstrom, and taking Stramel instead.

 

[Bjornar Moxnes]

These are all MN based...sorry.

EDM not taking Wallstedt
PHI not taking Buium when he fell to them at 12.
No one taking Heidt till 64th pick.
MN not taking Calum Ritchie or Edstrom, and taking Stramel instead.

Thought Leafs would pick Edstrom as well, but they went for Cowan.

 

[Crow]

Hawks drafting Levshunov was likely. Weird of people to say it’s shocking now. It wasn’t even surprising. Guessing that’s just recency bias and hindsight talking.

 

[Devilmademedoit]

I'm still in shock we got Matthew Tkachuk at 6th in 2016.

A bunch of us on the CFHF board were at a draft party and I don't recall anyone saying "what if we got Tkachuk at 6th" cause it didn't seem plausible.

#1 - Toronto was picking Matthews, that was a no brainer.

#2 - Winnipeg was picking Laine, also a no brainer.

#3 - Kekalainen has to be picking one of the Finns. He's probably got some inside scoop that nobody else does. Nope, he picks PLD.

#4 - Damn, Oilers are gonna take Tkachuk. Nope, Puljujarvi!

#5 - Okay, then it's no brainer, Vancouver is definitely taking Tkachuk. What?? Juolevi???

#6 - Flames pick Tkachuk!?

I know a lot of people questioned his skating ability, but I don't think any of us at the draft party expected him to drop that low. I was certain he was going to go 3rd

Okay. Laine and jesse were interchangeable picks on 99% of scouts list going into the draft. Most only fans wanted Tkchuck but when jesse fell to them they grabbed him.

 

[22Brad Park]

Boston passing on Zach Parise to trade back and select Mark fking Stuart when they needed scoring ahd had NHL pedigree with his dad having played.
That one haunted me.
Everyone passing on Kaprisov 4 times after he was Russias best player at World Jr's shocked me at time.
Again Boston passing 3 straight 1st round picks on Kyle Connor took the cake and select Zach fking Synyshyn with last one.

 

[NotAVacuumSalesman]

Oilers passing on Wallstedt to pick.. Xavier Bourgault.

Bourgault’s no longer in the org.

 

[Bourne Endeavor]

Still shocked the Habs took Carey Price over Brule, lol.

I’m still shocked they took Kostitsyn. The guy I wanted was Zach Parise, but I thought they’d take a big NAmerican forward.

I was more surprised they didn't take Kopitar. A team desperate for a legit top center and they let him go. Granted, Price worked out and all, but it was still a surprise.

As for the Canucks. Imagine choosing Juolevi over Thachuk

 

[WarriorofTime]

Curious why Anaheim taking a different winger than Demidov is (implicitly viewed as) more justifiable? Hawks did something very different with a RHD.

 

[Bubbles]

Oilers passing on Wallstedt to pick.. Xavier Bourgault.

Bourgault’s no longer in the org.

It's worst than that. They had the pick already and traded DOWN to get a 90th.

 

[WarriorofTime]

Oilers passing on Wallstedt to pick.. Xavier Bourgault.

Bourgault’s no longer in the org.

Is he gonna end up being a 1st rounder 0 NHL career games played kinda guy?

 

[BigDaddyLurch]

I’m still shocked they took Kostitsyn. The guy I wanted was Zach Parise, but I thought they’d take a big NAmerican forward.

...Carter was the pick, imo...Habs were in DIRE need of a true 1C...take a winger...I wanted to chokeslam pretty much the entire management team...

...but, at least we didn't go with Huge Speciman...sorry, Rags fans...

 

[NotAVacuumSalesman]

Is he gonna end up being a 1st rounder 0 NHL career games played kinda guy?

He’s trending down, although I haven’t followed him after the trade.

He very well could end up being that “guy”. His stats in the AHL isn’t anything special.

 

[majormajor]

I'm very comfortable with the reality that every team has their own list, the media hivemind/bubble that forms consensus lists is not reality, never is.

2024

I was nonetheless very surprised that the Flyers traded out of the position to draft Zeev Buium at #12, that was just astonishing to me. I believe they said something about not wanting to crowd out Cam York? Okay.

Demidov going to #5 is a bit of a head scratcher for me. But I'm less surprised at Sennecke and Lindstrom going high (it might not work in hindsight, but the upside is incredibly tantalizing with those two). It's really Levshunov vs Demidov that had me scratching my head. I didn't have Levshunov in the top ten and couldn't believe what the Hawks were doing. I kept thinking the talk of him going second was a smokescreen.

2023

This draft had very little surprise for me. HF is shocked that tiny players like Michkov and Benson slipped, as if that doesn't happen every year. However misguided it may be, it happens every damn time. And of course Simashev and But went higher than the consensus lists had them.

I also thought the public discussion on Leo Carlsson was oddly quiet - his hype should have been much closer to Fantilli and Bedard level, and it was one tenth of that. So I wasn't super surprised when he went second.

2022

I was anti-Wright all year so not surprised at all that he went fourth. Fun to see the reactions though! (I'm now a bit more bullish on Wright, I have flipped vs the consensus)

We were warned that Nemec could go second, but why? I still don't fully know. His tools were never that special. Why force a D pick there?

Korchinski at 7? Why? He was a distant third for me in a comparison group with Mintyukov and Mateychuk, just a more sloppy player with more vulnerable pivots. Korchinski was Chabot if it all works out, so basically not worth picking top ten.

2021

Zach Dean going #30 instead of top twelve is not what I expected based on my viewings, I thought he was going to be a much better player. Oops. My Scott Morrow fixation has looked better in retrospect.

Everyone here is now saying they were surprised Edvinsson slipped to #6. I was one of like three posters that were crazy about him, and the rest of HF was crickets. There was little media hype. He looked like a potential superstar to me, but given the lack of hype it wasn't surprising that high upside prospects like Luke Hughes or Kent Johnson went ahead of him. Jarmo taking KJ was a tiny bit surprising since he had rarely gone for such a risky creative player type. Regardless, I think the pick looks good for all three of those clubs.

Not that surprised at the Tyler Boucher pick at #10, the upside in that draft falls off a cliff at #9 (there was a clear top 9 in almost everyone's list). And Boucher was a lethal shooter who hit incredibly hard. His value would have become a little more obvious to people if he didn't fall apart physically. I'm not saying high end value - but fine compared to the comparison group of Sillinger and Coronato, in other words not the most valuable group at that point in the draft.

2020

The biggest one - why isn't it obvious that Seth Jarvis is a top 5 pick?? His WHL footage in that second half was jaw dropping for me. He never takes contact that he doesn't initiate so for me he should have been exempt from the small bois always fall rule. HF was also not very high on him, despite usually being the small boi fan club.

I didn't know who Yegor Chinakhov was and be honest, neither did you. If he can get healthy he has superstar upside, and I need to see it happen.

Why Holtz at #7? One dimensional shooters are not that hard to get and this draft is loaded. Take something harder to get.

Shakir Mukhamadullin at #20 is fine. Not a great pick but the public scout freakout was shameful. He's a good player.

I had Reichel and Mercer closer to #10 than #20. Reichel did not become who I thought he would be, he's such a shrinking violet and I thought he would get a lot stronger and outsmart opponents more. Mercer is the crafty whiz kid I expected, he hasn't developed consistency yet but I still think he's going to be a brilliant top six forward in the end.

I'm still in shock we got Matthew Tkachuk at 6th in 2016.

A bunch of us on the CFHF board were at a draft party and I don't recall anyone saying "what if we got Tkachuk at 6th" cause it didn't seem plausible.

#1 - Toronto was picking Matthews, that was a no brainer.

#2 - Winnipeg was picking Laine, also a no brainer.

#3 - Kekalainen has to be picking one of the Finns. He's probably got some inside scoop that nobody else does. Nope, he picks PLD.

#4 - Damn, Oilers are gonna take Tkachuk. Nope, Puljujarvi!

#5 - Okay, then it's no brainer, Vancouver is definitely taking Tkachuk. What?? Juolevi???

#6 - Flames pick Tkachuk!?

I know a lot of people questioned his skating ability, but I don't think any of us at the draft party expected him to drop that low. I was certain he was going to go 3rd or 4th.

You can be in shock, but let's be real most everyone thought Puljujarvi was going top 3. And if not that, then surely 4. Tkachuk going ahead of him would have been much more surprising.

Also not sure what you mean that Kekalainen didn't have the inside scoop, he made the very surprising yet correct decision.

 

[Martin Skoula]

Not nearly as big of a miss as others in the thread but Solberg dropping to the Leafs pick seemed like a stroke of luck after they interviewed him a few times and had a lot of reported interest in him, fit the profile of what Tre likes as a mean physical defensive D, only to trade down out of the spot for not that much and take a reach.

 

[torniojaws]

Kekäläinen skipping Puljujärvi should have been a red flag for all teams He knew what was up.

 

[majormajor]

Curious why Anaheim taking a different winger than Demidov is (implicitly viewed as) more justifiable?

Upside. Sennecke is super high upside. I think Demidov is a safer bet to become an elite player and had him clearly ahead, but at least I get it with Sennecke. In my opinion Lev is very unlikely to become an elite player.

Hawks did something very different with a RHD.

This doesn't get a pass for me. Positional drafting is littered with regrets. New Jersey I'm sure would feel better in retrospect taking an F in 2022 instead of Simon Nemec. They are more crowded at D now than at F. We're just really really bad at projecting positional strengths long term. So you take the best player.

For all we know the Hawks will have a lethal top pair in a few years and it will be like Vlasic - Rinzel or something like that. And Bedard will still be stuck playing with scrubs.

To use my home board HF Jackets as an example, people swing year to year from thinking that we must draft D to we must draft C to RW to RD to G and all the way around again. Meanwhile you could have just drafted the best player every year and you would have gotten the same positional balance, except better players!

 

[BigDaddyLurch]

This doesn't get a pass for me. Positional drafting is littered with regrets. New Jersey I'm sure would feel better in retrospect taking an F in 2022 instead of Simon Nemec. They are more crowded at D now than at F. We're just really really bad at projecting positional strengths long term. So you take the best player.

For all we know the Hawks will have a lethal top pair in a few years and it will be like Vlasic - Rinzel or something like that. And Bedard will still be stuck playing with scrubs.

To use my home board HF Jackets as an example, people swing year to year from thinking that we must draft D to we must draft C to RW to RD to G and all the way around again. Meanwhile you could have just drafted the best player every year and you would have gotten the same positional balance, except better players!

 

[WarriorofTime]

Upside. Sennecke is super high upside. I think Demidov is a safer bet to become an elite player and had him clearly ahead, but at least I get it with Sennecke. In my opinion Lev is very unlikely to become an elite player.



This doesn't get a pass for me. Positional drafting is littered with regrets. New Jersey I'm sure would feel better in retrospect taking an F in 2022 instead of Simon Nemec. They are more crowded at D now than at F. We're just really really bad at projecting positional strengths long term. So you take the best player.

For all we know the Hawks will have a lethal top pair in a few years and it will be like Vlasic - Rinzel or something like that. And Bedard will still be stuck playing with scrubs.

To use my home board HF Jackets as an example, people swing year to year from thinking that we must draft D to we must draft C to RW to RD to G and all the way around again. Meanwhile you could have just drafted the best player every year and you would have gotten the same positional balance, except better players!

I don’t think Sennecke has more upside than Demidov. But I guess we’ll see.

FWIW I wasn’t saying hawks took Levshunov because of positional need. Maybe they did. Maybe they didn’t. He was like third in the McKenzie scout list and sense from following was Hawk scouts liked him a lot. Obviously your read is he’s no good but I don’t think that was Hawk scouting or consensus scouting read.

Just that it is or at least certainly can be a sorta an apples to oranges pair. If Lev is top pair set and forget RHD hawks are likely happy and only really feeling pain if Demidov is top 5 scorer (superstar level). If Demidov is top 20 scorer and Lev is just a middle three or even bottom pair guy then of course hawks would feel the pain there. But Anaheim taking a winger is a more direct one to one comparable to follow. Like if all top five picks “hit” so to speak it’s very possible Anaheim just took a worse wing at the end of the day.

I agree in general sense of draft BPA especially high. So like if hawks picked first year take Schaefer and worry about LHD logjam later. You can’t just ignore RHD positional scarcity entirely though. It’s a much more difficult spot to fill externally and leads to a good bit of overpayment and desperation down the line. Does that mean you “overpay” on draft day? No, not necessarily but you do have long term planning in your mind at all stages.

 

[majormajor]

I don’t think Sennecke has more upside than Demidov. But I guess we’ll see.

Yeah I don't mean to say that I think his upside is higher. It's sky high for both (with a lot more uncertainty attached to Sennecke).

 

[BigDaddyLurch]

Don’t think there’s nothing that can beat Juolevi over Tkachuk.

...Louis Leblanc over Chris Kreider might not be worse, but it isn't much better...

 

[Yepthatsme]

Which is why I don't understand those that say Dallas has such excellent drafting and scouts. Take away 2017 and 2021 and the Stars drafting looks meh at best and pretty bad at worst.

If you take away their top of the league drafting they aren’t actually that good

 

[Doothpick]

Columbus Anaheim and Seattle passing on Simon edvinsson

I expected with Anaheim's drafting history that they'll go for Edvinsson or Hughes, so McTavish was a bit of a surprise. Especially so, since Ed and Hughes had all the traits Martin Madden's staff usually look for in a d-men. They also have had insane hit rate with d-men. Ridiculous record from 08' onwards.

Interestingly enough; Martin Madden said in an interview last year that they kind of messed up one draft going for need instead of BPA. Most Ducks fans speculated he meant Drysdale or someone else years ago, but I thought it might actually be McTavish since a) in 2021 they still had Fowler, Lindholm, Manson, as well as Drysdale and LaCombe coming along b) upfront they were really bare, and in desperate need of scoring talent c) McTavish really doesn't pass the eye-test of being bonafide future top scorer, but more likely his ceiling is a great complimentary piece (35-30 type production).

It might be that the "mess up" had not as much to do with McTavish per se, but more due to a player who is now tracking to be that impact guy they visioned. I could be totally off, and probably am, because I have to imagine they are still happy with McT. However they sure know their stuff when it comes to drafting defenceman, so it is a bit peculiar they passed on Edvinsson and Hughes.

Also couple of Finnish guys.

Ristolainen. His lack of hockey sense was evident from the beginning, as well as classic case of maturing before his peers. He did have some puck skills, was willing to use his size so I sort of get it. Also big defenceman are all the rage, righties even more so. I just thought clear limitations of his ability to process the game quickly would outweigh the potential in scouts' eyes. Good for him becoming kind of a decent middlepair guy, so not a terrible pick, but I was still surprised. Never have I been questioning big guy + can skate + who cares hockey sense combo after him - they always go high.

Juolevi too, not because I didn't believe in his potential, since he did have talent, size, skating and skill. I was wrong of course, but who knows what could have been without injuries. Still even as a believer, I didnt envision a top-pairing guy. Thought the scouts would not either, as there was clearly more talented guys on the board before him. Speaking of that draft here is a reverse version for bonus.

Everyone thought Kekäläinen and Siren (Director of Am. Scouting) would pick Puljujarvi at 3rd due to nationality. I was actually confident they wouldn't, since both of them have such a good draft record. So I was sure they must see past what he could be, if I did as well.

It was once again a case of "Risto". Matured early and lack of hockey sense. For a projected scoring forward, he had very poor offensive vision. He did have a good WJC, but it should've been clear as day Aho and Laine drove that bus. I still liked the smiling Finn, and hoped he'd carve out career as top9 guy. Maybe couple years of top6 production. Actually another Finn who I thought would bust, Kasperi Kapanen, ended up fulfilling that kinda career.

This became very long, but these came to mind for a clear reason, and I felt the need to add that context. There are others for sure, but not really much to say about them so I won't bother.