Buffalo Bills Season's End: The Off-Seasons Starts Now

[zenthusiast]

Play with the ESPN Playoff machine some. You won't like it as much. Our competition has some REAL soft games left.

Yeah I caught your post after I wrote mine. In my “what I think at first sight” run through I actually have Pittsburgh at 1-5 in the next 6. I suppose we’ll see.

 

[Zman5778]

Just like - what are you doing? I'm not saying we need to be sinking first round picks into the position. But like Andre Cisco was right there when we took Basham. Bryan Cook, Nick Cross, and Kerby Joseph went late second / third in 2022. Brian Branch, Sidney Brown, Ji-Ayir Brown, Jordan Battle this year. At some point along the way it didn't behoove them to bring in any young blood at such an important position on our defense? And now it's a bonafide weakness with no backup plan in place.

I'm not going to bash him too much for Kincaid or Torrence over the names you mentioned....and only Battle was left for us in the 3rd (who I would have taken over Williams). Especially Torrence in the 2nd -- the value at a position of need was too great.

To your overarching point: Should they have invested a little more in the safety position in the 22 or 23 drafts? Yep.

 

[Zman5778]

Yeah I caught your post after I wrote mine. In my “what I think at first sight” run through I actually have Pittsburgh at 1-5 in the next 6. I suppose we’ll see.

There's no way Pittsburgh loses to Arizona or NE. I can't see a Burrow-less Bengals team biting them either.

 

[brian_griffin]

I wonder what the odds are they make it in as a WC @10-7. That affords them one more loss. If they can get by KC, then I'll be more optimistic.

Cowboys- really good team, but we're home, and if Allen is cookin', then I don't think Dak is the caliber of QB to keep pace.

Chargers- choke artists, though I won't put it past Buffalo to out choke them. That would be a new low.

Pats- I assume this will go similarly to the Jets game last week.

Dolphins- Allen is their daddy. Tua is good, but if we get pressure on him- he'll fold.

If there's a good chance we make it at 10-7, then there's still hope if Allen is playing lights. If they lose against KC, then it's looking incredibly grim.

Odds are, they'll win 2-3 of the next 5, and we'll be conversing about firing McD during the offseason.

If Allen isn't cooking, Dak is certainly of the caliber this season to beat BUF. He's having an outstanding season in 2023. And I loathe the Cowboys.

Cowboys are a good team, but they genuinely haven't beaten anyone of note, and I don't think they've beaten a team with a winning record.

All that said, with the game in BUF, I expect the Bills to be favored (give the points) only to drive money bets more evently.

 

[tmlms13]

Let's assume we get to 10-7. Let's further assume we win our last 3.

A LOT of our competition has Charmin-soft schedules left.

We're NOT catching Pittsburgh. They get to 10 with their eyes closed.....and probably get to 11 at least. 12 is attainable with not a lot of trouble.

Cleveland? It'll take a pretty major upset to not get to 10 wins, and they're the ones we can beat on a tie-breaker IF we beat KC and lose to Dallas. I just don't see the Browns losing to the Jete, the Burrow-less Bengals or the Bears. That defense will carry them.

Indy? They probably get 3 wins to put them at 9. Can they beat the Texans and/or Falcons and/or Steelers? If they win one of those, that gets them to 10. If they get 2, they get to 11.

Houston? They've got an easy path to 9 wins if they keep playing like they are. Then they've got coin flips against the Broncos, Colts and Browns.

Denver? They should get to 8 easy. Then it's all about their 2 against the Chargers, the Lions and Houston. Win 2 of 4 and they get to 10, shutting us out.

Basically it'll come down to:

1.) We need help, and a fair amount of it. The good news is that 2 teams we need help from are playing backup (or 3rd string QBs) and one is being run by a rookie who might hit a wall. Looking at the schedules of the competition left.......it's not terribly hard to get 3 11-win WC teams.

2.) KC is basically a mandatory win. Lose there and basically none of the tie-breakers go our way. Win there and we get SOME tiebreakers.............

And believe it or not, there are perfectly reasonable scenarios out there where there's 4 teams in the AFC WC race that get to 11 wins......and we don't get in thanks to tie-breakers.

It's a really, really, really uphill battle for us to get there.

I think we're most likely to catch Miami, even with a loss to KC, and maybe even Dallas too if Miami puke away a game and ends up at 9 - 7 going into week 18

Miami is 8-3 and has:
@ Wash - W
vs Tenn - W
vs Jets - L
vs Dallas - L
@ Balt - L

That's not unreasonable.

Week 18, Dolphins are 10-6, Bills are 9 - 7.... Winner takes the Division

 

[Zman5778]

I think we're most likely to catch Miami, even with a loss to KC, and maybe even Dallas too if Miami puke away a game and ends up at 9 - 7

Miami is 8-3 and has:
@ Wash - W
vs Tenn - W
vs Jets - L
vs Dallas - L
@ Balt - L

That's not unreasonable.

Week 18, Dolphins are 10-6, Bills are 9 - 7.... Winner takes the Division

Losing to the Jets certainly seems unreasonable. Miami is going to get points, even against that Jets D. How are the Jets going to score? 2 or 3 pick-6s?

 

[Selanne00008]

I think we're most likely to catch Miami, even with a loss to KC, and maybe even Dallas too if Miami puke away a game and ends up at 9 - 7 going into week 18

Miami is 8-3 and has:
@ Wash - W
vs Tenn - W
vs Jets - L
vs Dallas - L
@ Balt - L

That's not unreasonable.

Week 18, Dolphins are 10-6, Bills are 9 - 7.... Winner takes the Division

I just don't see how the Jets can go to Miami and win. They just can not score and will surely need to against Miami.

 

[SwordsgoneWild]

Don't expect much help this week outside of maybe the Titans and Texans winning . Let's see what we got.


Colts @ Titans
Broncos @ Texans
Cards @ Steelers ( fml )
Dolphins @ Commies
Browns @ Rams
Chiefs @ Packers
Bengals @ Jags


All games with varying degrees of importance for us. The Bengais are pretty much done without Burrow so not worried there. Don't see the Dolphins or Chiefs losing. Not like we will catch either of them anyways so that leaves us with the others and oh boy do some of them have cupcake games.. The only two that I am halfway optimistic about would be the first two.

We need to come out of the bye with our heads on right . If we can beat the Chiefs then I'll feel optimistic about the remainder of the schedule. I hope they use this week if to rest and then come in the following week prepared to right the ship.

 

[Selanne00008]

I think we're most likely to catch Miami, even with a loss to KC, and maybe even Dallas too if Miami puke away a game and ends up at 9 - 7 going into week 18

Miami is 8-3 and has:
@ Wash - W
vs Tenn - W
vs Jets - L
vs Dallas - L
@ Balt - L

That's not unreasonable.

Week 18, Dolphins are 10-6, Bills are 9 - 7.... Winner takes the Division

I think a more reasonable shot at the division would be Miami wins against the Jets there, and the Bills run the table up until that Miami game. We'd have a shot at the division and the wild card.

Basically, i don't think we can lose again, for the entire rest of the year lol. This team can beat the Chiefs and Cowgirls.

 

[zenthusiast]

There's no way Pittsburgh loses to Arizona or NE. I can't see a Burrow-less Bengals team biting them either.

Cards with Murray will punch above their weight even if he’s low-key frauded. I’m thinking that Browning gets a rhythm where he just lets the receivers do the work by that point. Pats won’t beat anyone except maybe the jets lol

 

[stealth1]

Then there is the team everyone is not talking about. The Broncos are right there too. They have an easy schedule left. The only realistic way the Bills get in is if they run the table. At 10-7 there too many ways they don't get it in.

 

[Zman5778]

Then there is the team everyone is not talking about. The Broncos are right there too. They have an easy schedule left. The only realistic way the Bills get in is if they run the table. At 10-7 there too many ways they don't get it in.

Eh, their schedule isn't as easy as the Browns or even Colts or Texans. They've got a bunch of games I'd consider coin flips. Yes, I count the Chargers as a coin flip -- they're simply too talented and if they flip that switch on for a game.....they can beat anyone.

 

[Selanne00008]

The Broncos make the playoffs and the Bills don't. What a World!

 

[misterchainsaw]

We'll get clarity on tiebreakers over the next 2-3 weeks. For now, it's certainly possible to get past the Broncos in a tiebreaker if there's another AFC North team also at 10-7.

Our strength of victory is not as good as it was a few weeks ago though so the loss probably would have to be to Dallas and not to Kansas City.

That said, I don't think Cleveland or Pittsburgh are locks to win any game with the offensive side of the ball the way it is. All it takes is one or two big plays and they're in a hole. Against a team like the Jets that could be fatal. I also think the Rams are playing better football now with Stafford seemingly healthy than at any point this year. Pittsburgh's schedule is definitely easier than Cleveland's though.

Baltimore's schedule is kind of low key brutal and they could also easily slip to 10-7 (or a week 18 game with PIT where the loser drops to 10-7). They're @ JAX, @ SF, and @ Mia in consecutive weeks. Their tiebreakers would not be good in that scenario either. We could be in a scenario where we're rooting for Pit to win the AFC North in the last week to allow us to sneak over Baltimore.

I'll also say AFC North matchups are among the most unpredictable division games in the sport. They're almost always low scoring and usually can go either way.

I think the Bills are 50-50 at 10-7. But like 30-70 if they lose to an AFC team and 60-40 if they lose to Dallas. But also at 10-7 it's possible Miami's in play too, although there I'm not sure I see a loss before they get to 11 and that tough closing stretch, unfortunately.

 

[Estimated_Prophet]

If this team is ever going to realize it's potential McDermott is going to have to stop coaching like a P*ssy in the second half of games where he has the lead. His overarching philosophy that undermined Leslie Frazier's play calling in previous years continues to kill this team in tight games and OT situations.

Put your boot on their neck and finish them, continue to play call the same way that put you in the lead in the first place.

This sh*t just p*sses me off

 

[SabresFan26]

The Broncos make the playoffs and the Bills don't. What a World!

Sean Payton vs Sean McDermott

 

[SabresFan26]

Crazy stat.

The Bills have allowed 78 points in the fourth quarter and overtime of their six losses. They gave up 80 in the fourth quarter and OT in the entire 2022 season.

So much for Sean taking over for Leslie. We’ve been worse.

 

[Selanne00008]

Crazy stat.

The Bills have allowed 78 points in the fourth quarter and overtime of their six losses. They gave up 80 in the fourth quarter and OT in the entire 2022 season.

So much for Sean taking over for Leslie. We’ve been worse.

How much of that can be blamed by injury? Tre, Milano, Von (useless), Jones, Dane Jackson, Rapp, Ford.

Not defending him, but man, nearly 50% of a starting D out.

 

[zenthusiast]

I think the defense’s injuries should matter, but also maybe not as much as we give them credit for. Most of the preseason starters are healthy over the past few

 

[Dubi Doo]

Wrong thread.

 

[Dirty Dog]

There's no way Pittsburgh loses to Arizona or NE. I can't see a Burrow-less Bengals team biting them either.

I have watched Pittsburg more than any team other than buffalo. Their offense is atrocious and they are extremely capable of losing to anyone. They have a negative point differential of 23 with a 7-4 record. They haven’t won a single game by two scores.

When you literally only play one score games when you win, you can lose any game

 

[Jim Bob]

 

[Husko]

Given the defense seems to be starting most games well and then falling off a cliff by 4th quarter, I wonder if there's any merit to the idea that it's harder for the DC to make in game adjustments when he is also the head coach.

I think the defense’s injuries should matter, but also maybe not as much as we give them credit for. Most of the preseason starters are healthy over the past few

And Douglas has been as good as this season White. And Linval has shored up the run defense as much as we miss Jones. Milano is the only major outright hole.

Poyer and Hyde being old and showing it is as much the problem as any injuries.

 

[LaPlante94]

Maybe it's too early to talk about the draft/offseason or think about it for some but what would y'all do? I think I'm at that point where it might be time to move on from McDermott no matter how much I like the guy. I think it's just time for a change and try something else. Got a few good candidates out there like Ben Johnson and a few others who could be good replacements. I'd assume Brady stays on as OC but who would be a good DC hire? The draft is where idk what I'd do tbh. Do we go after a WR like Coleman or Odunze who are projected in that late 1st round or do we go with a DB like DeJean or somebody?

 

[Husko]

Maybe it's too early to talk about the draft/offseason or think about it for some but what would y'all do? I think I'm at that point where it might be time to move on from McDermott no matter how much I like the guy. I think it's just time for a change and try something else. Got a few good candidates out there like Ben Johnson and a few others who could be good replacements. I'd assume Brady stays on as OC but who would be a good DC hire? The draft is where idk what I'd do tbh. Do we go after a WR like Coleman or Odunze who are projected in that late 1st round or do we go with a DB like DeJean or somebody?

If the Bills miss the playoffs and have a rare highish pick for them, priority #1 absolutely needs to be to get a player with gamebreaking ability. I don't care if it's a WR, OT, DE, LB (ok probably shouldn't be a LB), or S. We need a home run player. We've hit almost no home runs. This is hopefully the highest we'll get to draft while we have Allen. Need a player that can become an all pro.