Buffalo Bills Season's End: The Off-Seasons Starts Now

[ValJamesDuex]

Of course they're probaly harping on the pick he threw in shit conditions and most likely crappy visibility. I despise the incompetent media. Especially ESPN. Josh was a force yesterday. If anything these morons should be blaming our second half D . Most notably the way McD called the last 2 minute D and the last drive in OT. But but turnover! f*** off.

I havn't watched espn in 10 years. Life's short, read a book, go for a walk, hug your loved ones.

 

[Jim Bob]

I feel like there’s now one play a week where Gabe and Allen have very different ideas about where he should be

When you rely on option routes as much as the Bills do, that tends to happen a fair amount.

 

[ValJamesDuex]

Are Sean McDermott’s explanations for historically bad loss vs. Eagles good enough?

Josh Allen put up a historic performance, but still, the Bills couldn't pull out a win

www.newyorkupstate.com

 

[KeyserSoze81]

The Ringer published a piece today discussing how the Bills have a young core that could speed up any rebuild, should they bite the bullet and pursue it starting right now. Lot of dead weight that may be a painful short-term loss financially if we cut or trade them but could open up spots for a new window that would align with a new HC starting in 2024/2025.

This is where I'm at. Eat some cap hits and rebuild next year, allow a new coach to install a system, and hopefully compete the following year with some new blood.

 

[brian_griffin]

Definitely starting to worry about Von Miller. Injuries + Time may be catching up to him. Maybe the week off helps and he gets his step back, but it feels like his days of providing any value may be behind him. Sucks too...

Starting to worry? I was done with him before Halloween. He's done nothing remarkable and his contract value may be the worst on the team.

 

[5 Minute Major]

It's proven time and time and time again -- just get into the playoffs and hope you get hot enough to make a run.

Is that why the AFC representative, for the most part, has been KC and before that, the Patriots, year after year?

 

[Selanne00008]

Starting to worry? I was done with him before Halloween. He's done nothing remarkable and his contract value may be the worst on the team.

It's sad because it's not his (or anyone's) fault. 6 year contract and basically got a half year of 'good Von' out of it. brutal.

At least we can get out of it AFTER next year with limited cap trouble? OR, he rehabs even more for another 9 months and next year has a jump in his step. But yes, this year is a Bust

 

[Zman5778]

At least we can get out of it AFTER next year with limited cap trouble?

If we designate Von for a post-June 1 cut in 2025, It's 6M dead cap in 2025 and 9M dead cap in 2026.....with a cap savings for 2025 of 17.5M

That's really the first chance to get rid of him. He'll be on the roster/cap in 2024.

 

[KeyserSoze81]

If we designate Von for a post-June 1 cut in 2025, It's 6M dead cap in 2025 and 9M dead cap in 2026.....with a cap savings for 2025 of 17.5M

That's really the first chance to get rid of him. He'll be on the roster/cap in 2024.

Ugh, that's a gut punch any way you look at it. For all of his talk about being competitive each year, Beane really bet a lot on an aging Von Miller.

He looked good for a few games, and he produced a podcast show. Not bad for $120M.

 

[brian_griffin]

^^re: posts above. Yeah, I'm not mad, it is what it is, but I have no hope for better play from #40 either this year or next.

** In addition to the podcast, there was also the Progressive insurance commercial with #14.

 

[BFLO]

The Ringer published a piece today discussing how the Bills have a young core that could speed up any rebuild, should they bite the bullet and pursue it starting right now. Lot of dead weight that may be a painful short-term loss financially if we cut or trade them but could open up spots for a new window that would align with a new HC starting in 2024/2025.

I don't think we can cut any of the big cap hits until after the 2024 season. But we can cut all of them then.

So we could go into 2025 fresh, but we're kinda doomed for 2024.

Cut all these guys after the 2024-25 season.
Von Miller
Hyde
Poyer
Morse
White
Knox
Davis (don't re-sign him)

Embrace a 1.5 year re-tool now, and come back as super bowl favorites in 2025. McD needs to go. I'm not sure how many more times the team needs to come up short in games that they should have won for Terry to figure out that it's McD holding them back.

 

[Selanne00008]

I don't think we can cut any of the big cap hits until after the 2024 season. But we can cut all of them then.

So we could go into 2025 fresh, but we're kinda doomed for 2024.

Cut all these guys after the 2024-25 season.
Von Miller
Hyde
Poyer
Morse
White
Knox
Davis (don't re-sign him)

Embrace a 1.5 year re-tool now, and come back as super bowl favorites in 2025. McD needs to go. I'm not sure how many more times the team needs to come up short in games that they should have won for Terry to figure out that it's McD holding them back.

I doubt it's realistic. BUT. Watch us be forced into a kind of 'retool 2024' and go 13-4 with a division win.

 

[Asymmetric Solution]

It is lunacy.

The media disillusion with Allen is suspicious for sure.

 

[Husko]

If the Bills did want to kick off any sort of rebuild this offseason, here's some possible moves:

Let walk
-Micah Hyde
-Gabe Davis
-Tim Settle
-Leonard Floyd
-Jordan Phillips
-Tyrell Dodson
-Poona Ford
-AJ Epenesa
-Dane Jackson
-Trent Sherfield
-Daquan Jones

*I would pair these departures with not signing a single UFA over the comp pick formula threshold. Hopefully Davis, Epenesa, and Floyd get big boy deals and maybe Hyde or others sign somewhere and ideally we get several juicy comp picks.

Cut
-White: Saves over 6 million (and 16 in 2025)
-Morse: Saves 8.5 million
-Poyer: Saves 5 million
-Harty: Saves 4 million
-Neal: Saves 2 million

Tough Calls
-Taron Johnson: He's one of our best players. His contract is up after next season. He's 27 now. Do we re-sign and build around him? Is he as useful in a non McDermott scheme? Do we say thank you for your service and trade him for a day 2 pick? Wait it out and feel good about getting a comp pick if he cashes big and walks?
-Von: Not really a tough call because we can't move on from him until 2025. But it's a bad situation if he doesn't rebound. I really hope he does once healthy. Wish they hadn't rushed him back and we'd still be in the dark about his recovery.
-Ryan Bates: We can save a good chunk if we move on from him this offseason. But if Morse is walking it would be nice to have a youngish stabling presence at center. I'd lean toward keeping him.
-Matt Milano: The hardest call of all. Not regarding cutting him. There's no savings there. But could he be traded for a 1st or 2nd round pick? Should we be thinking long term extension/pushing more money down the line? What do we do with a 29 year old oft-injured superstar amid a reset?


So there's some fodder. When folks are talking rebuild or reset, these are the names to think about.

 

[Ace]

In case anyone still wants to argue his failures in important moments don’t come from a place of complete cowardice and coaching scared…here he is telling you that his failures in important moments come from complete cowardice and coaching scared:



And no matter how many times it happens exactly the same way…his balls do not drop.

 

[Dubi Doo]

I'm not sure even God Mode Josh is enough. Remember that playoff game against NE where Josh was more than "Just a God"? That's what we need.

I wonder what the odds are they make it in as a WC @10-7. That affords them one more loss. If they can get by KC, then I'll be more optimistic.

Cowboys- really good team, but we're home, and if Allen is cookin', then I don't think Dak is the caliber of QB to keep pace.

Chargers- choke artists, though I won't put it past Buffalo to out choke them. That would be a new low.

Pats- I assume this will go similarly to the Jets game last week.

Dolphins- Allen is their daddy. Tua is good, but if we get pressure on him- he'll fold.

If there's a good chance we make it at 10-7, then there's still hope if Allen is playing lights. If they lose against KC, then it's looking incredibly grim.

Odds are, they'll win 2-3 of the next 5, and we'll be conversing about firing McD during the offseason.

 

[Dubi Doo]

Also, if the Eagles had any other kicker- we win that game. What an absolutely insane kick.

I know we all harp on McD, but the BS reffing in the first half kept us from being up three scores, FG block which happens like 5% of the time, Bass missing a FG, Cook dropping an easy TD pass, Davis *apparently* making the wrong read on an east GW TD....

I mean damn, replay that same game 10 times with consistent officiating and Cook making the easy catch, and the game is likely out of reach by half time.

McD has his flaws, but the fooball gods were having their kicks and giggles that game. I should've known they were going to be ass hats when they gave us a hurricane to play in.

 

[tmlms13]

Now hear me out: what if belicheck is fired….

Won't happen because Bill will want Beane gone too.

 

[Husko]

I think Beane has mostly done a good job, and failing to identify homeruns instead of singles in the draft is a lot of luck and something I won't lay at his feet. But one huge thing I will fault him/our drafting for:

With a scheme as centered around the safety position as we have, and with two aging safeties that have shown signs of aging cropping up over the years, how as our entire draft investment in the position over his tenure been:
-Jaquan Johnson 2019 6th round
-Damar Hamlin 2021 6th round

Just like - what are you doing? I'm not saying we need to be sinking first round picks into the position. But like Andre Cisco was right there when we took Basham. Bryan Cook, Nick Cross, and Kerby Joseph went late second / third in 2022. Brian Branch, Sidney Brown, Ji-Ayir Brown, Jordan Battle this year. At some point along the way it didn't behoove them to bring in any young blood at such an important position on our defense? And now it's a bonafide weakness with no backup plan in place.

 

[tmlms13]

I wonder what the odds are they make it in as a WC @10-7. That affords them one more loss. If they can get by KC, then I'll be more optimistic.

Cowboys- really good team, but we're home, and if Allen is cookin', then I don't think Dak is the caliber of QB to keep pace.

Chargers- choke artists, though I won't put it past Buffalo to out choke them. That would be a new low.

Pats- I assume this will go similarly to the Jets game last week.

Dolphins- Allen is their daddy. Tua is good, but if we get pressure on him- he'll fold.

If there's a good chance we make it at 10-7, then there's still hope if Allen is playing lights. If they lose against KC, then it's looking incredibly grim.

Odds are, they'll win 2-3 of the next 5, and we'll be conversing about firing McD during the offseason.

Good Old ESPN Playoff Machine is up now. One of the greatest inventions ever.

ESPN.com's 2024 NFL Playoff Machine - Playoff Matchup Predictor

Use the NFL Playoff Machine from ESPN to predict the NFL Playoff matchups by generating the various matchup scenarios based on your selections.

www.espn.com

10-7 won't get in as a WC because of tiebreaker.

Our path to the playoffs I think is actually more likely getting the Division because we have tiebreaker over Miami. (assuming a win in week 18)

 

[zenthusiast]

In case anyone still wants to argue his failures in important moments don’t come from a place of complete cowardice and coaching scared…here he is telling you that his failures in important moments come from complete cowardice and coaching scared:



And no matter how many times it happens exactly the same way…his balls do not drop.

Playing not to lose isn’t the move when you have this qb.

 

[Zman5778]

I wonder what the odds are they make it in as a WC @10-7. That affords them one more loss. If they can get by KC, then I'll be more optimistic.

Cowboys- really good team, but we're home, and if Allen is cookin', then I don't think Dak is the caliber of QB to keep pace.

Chargers- choke artists, though I won't put it past Buffalo to out choke them. That would be a new low.

Pats- I assume this will go similarly to the Jets game last week.

Dolphins- Allen is their daddy. Tua is good, but if we get pressure on him- he'll fold.

If there's a good chance we make it at 10-7, then there's still hope if Allen is playing lights. If they lose against KC, then it's looking incredibly grim.

Odds are, they'll win 2-3 of the next 5, and we'll be conversing about firing McD during the offseason.

Let's assume we get to 10-7. Let's further assume we win our last 3.

A LOT of our competition has Charmin-soft schedules left.

We're NOT catching Pittsburgh. They get to 10 with their eyes closed.....and probably get to 11 at least. 12 is attainable with not a lot of trouble.

Cleveland? It'll take a pretty major upset to not get to 10 wins, and they're the ones we can beat on a tie-breaker IF we beat KC and lose to Dallas. I just don't see the Browns losing to the Jete, the Burrow-less Bengals or the Bears. That defense will carry them.

Indy? They probably get 3 wins to put them at 9. Can they beat the Texans and/or Falcons and/or Steelers? If they win one of those, that gets them to 10. If they get 2, they get to 11.

Houston? They've got an easy path to 9 wins if they keep playing like they are. Then they've got coin flips against the Broncos, Colts and Browns.

Denver? They should get to 8 easy. Then it's all about their 2 against the Chargers, the Lions and Houston. Win 2 of 4 and they get to 10, shutting us out.

Basically it'll come down to:

1.) We need help, and a fair amount of it. The good news is that 2 teams we need help from are playing backup (or 3rd string QBs) and one is being run by a rookie who might hit a wall. Looking at the schedules of the competition left.......it's not terribly hard to get 3 11-win WC teams.

2.) KC is basically a mandatory win. Lose there and basically none of the tie-breakers go our way. Win there and we get SOME tiebreakers.............

And believe it or not, there are perfectly reasonable scenarios out there where there's 4 teams in the AFC WC race that get to 11 wins......and we don't get in thanks to tie-breakers.

It's a really, really, really uphill battle for us to get there.

 

[zenthusiast]

I actually like the Bills’ chances of squeaking in at 10-7 assuming the one loss is to Dallas

E: I don’t rate Pittsburgh or the DTR browns that highly tbf.

 

[Zman5778]

10-7 won't get in as a WC because of tiebreaker.

There are quite a few ways to get in at 10-7. Granted, most of them require some unreasonable things (like the Jets beating Houston and/or Cleveland or the Pats helping us out).

But it's not impossible to get to 10-7 and get a WC.....as long as our loss is against Dallas.

 

[Zman5778]

I actually like the Bills’ chances of squeaking in at 10-7 assuming the one loss is to Dallas

Play with the ESPN Playoff machine some. You won't like it as much. Our competition has some REAL soft games left.