Buffalo Bills Season's End: The Off-Seasons Starts Now

[Jim Bob]

Used Spotrac on this:

Cap was $208M in 2022, $224.8M for 2023. Assuming $286M cap, the Bills start the 2024 season -$42M in cap space. What would the team look like if they moved Diggs:


- Trade Diggs
- Re-structure Allen
- Re-structure White (could also cut, his out is after 2023)
- Re-structure Knox
- Re-structure Milano
- Re-structure Oliver
- Re-structure McGovern (could also cut, his out is after 2023)
- Cut Hines
- Cut Poyer
- Cut Morse

That leave the team with around $6M in cap ($10M is the Bills cut White and McGovern).

That leaves the Bills with around 40 players and a draft with plenty of picks.

It's an absolute ton of 2024 dead cap space, but the Bills would be able to re-shape the roster in a season.

That gives you 40 players on the roster with $5.5M in cap space. That doesn't work.

With the cap increases and dead space decreased, it doesn't wreck 2025. Here's the numbers off Spotrac:

- Trade Diggs pre-June 1st. 2024 $31M dead cap. Nothing in 2025.
- Cut Hines. $1.3M dead cap in 2024 no matter when the Bills release him.
- Cut Poyer. $2M dead in 2024 cap no matter when the Bills release him
- Cut Morse. $3M dead cap no matter when the Bills release him.

There's no wrecked cap in 2025. It's a one year thing.

That doesn't leave you with enough cap space to build out a 53 man roster in '24, though.

After doing what you suggested, Spotrac says you have this 40 man roster with $5.5M in cap space:

 

[Der Jaeger]

That gives you 40 players on the roster with $5.5M in cap space. That doesn't work.


That doesn't leave you with enough cap space to build out a 53 man roster in '24, though.

After doing what you suggested, Spotrac says you have this 40 man roster with $5.5M in cap space:

View attachment 769038

Go tinker with it some more and try to make it work. It's possible. It's a one year nuke and then a reload.

 

[Jim Bob]

Go tinker with it some more and try to make it work. It's possible. It's a one year nuke and then a reload.

View attachment 769042

You still can't get there with where they are at right now. They have pushed so much into the future that it is impossible to get out of everything in '24.

 

[My Cozen Dylan]

You still can't get there with where they are at right now. They have pushed so much into the future that it is impossible to get out of everything in '24.

The piper appears to be collecting payment a lot sooner than Beane expected.

 

[Selanne00008]

Diggs and Josh apparently are both babies in a freaking soap opera we have to endure. FU both. You cant fight like men before the games and after and try to win not handcuffed, ya lil tools. Id kick both your asses as yr BOTH weak.

Not throwing to diggs if he humiliated u Weak .

Saying josh is nothing without u knowing he'll try to win it without you Diggs. Weak.

Yr both f**king poosies. FU for making me watch this bs and helpin these even more cowardly nfl scum zap you both and turn you BOTH into puppets. The morse comments and travon lil shite loser blowing Jerrah fake brotha. Cowardly tweets are not something to help winning w a defense that tries but also failed after Josh actually DID what he probably said to Diggs and won the game withouthim. , Childishly. f*** you both. Rich scum tormenting a stadium.

I better be wrong and you're all puppeted by snake tower cell cia. Win for the kids and peopl In that stadium that make nothing compared to both of you and are enslaved all weak/week , wake In mourning etc. you both cant be as childish as sporto mothers competing sexually w their daughters.

Sir, this is a Wendy's

 

[Der Jaeger]

Hard resets have to happen at some point for practically every franchise. I'm fine with doing that so long as we start doing so this season if we don't go on a run. Get Shorter and Shakir as many touches as possible, bench Harty and Sherfield entirely. Put Dorian Williams out there whenever possible and bench Spector and Dodson's sorry asses. Activate Elam for the end of the season and give him his last chance.

If we're re-setting, lets get moving with the process sooner than later. Thankfully we have a QB who isn't inclined to bitch and moan (at least not yet) and who will be a steady presence during that transition.

Here's the roster pos-nuke for 2024:

WR: Shakir
TE: Kincaid
LT: Dawkins
LG: McGovern (or someone else if he's cut)
C: Bates, Anderson
RG: Torrence
RT: Brown, Van Demark
TE: Knox
WR: Shorter
QB: Allen
RB: Cook, Gilliam

LE: Rousseau
DT: Oliver
NT:
RE: Miller, Jonathan
LB: Milano, Williams
LB: Bernard, Spector
NB: Johnson, Neal
CB: Douglas
CB: Bernard, Elam
S:
S:

About $12M in roster space with 53 spots open. Not ideal but Beane will need to tinker and make it work. If he re-structures Miller and Bass he can open that number to $26M.

Now a reload draft (going off PFF current rankings):
1st: Amarius Mims, OT Georgia. Takes over for Dawkins after the season is over.
2nd: Brendan Rice, WR USC. Gets tons of time as a rookie.
3rd: Nazir Stackhouse, DT, Georgia. Gets tons of time as a rookie.
4th: Blake Fisher, OT Notre Dame
5th: Moose Muhammed WR Texas A&M
5th: Tyleik Williams, DT Ohio State
6th: Lathon Ransom, S Ohio State
6th: Malachi Moore, S Alabama
6th: Bryce Foster, C Texas A&M
7th: Jalin Conyers, TE Arizona State (had to shift to PFN since PFF only went to 200)

New depth chart:
WR: Shakir, Rice
TE: Kincaid
LT: Dawkins, Mims
LG: McGovern
C: Bates, Foster
RG: Torrence, Anderson
RT: Brown, Van Demark, Fisher
TE: Knox, Conyers
WR: Shorter, Muhammad
QB: Allen
RB: Cook, Gilliam

LE: Rousseau
DT: Oliver
NT: Stackhouse, Williams
RE: Miller, Jonathan
LB: Milano, Williams
LB: Bernard, Spector
NB: Johnson, Neal
CB: Douglas
CB: Bernard, Elam
S: Ranson
S: Moore

That's 37 of the 50 positions players needed, minus the 3 special teamers. Res-structure Miller, and you get cap space to fill the remaining roster.

1 year hard reset. Rebuild the offensive line and DT. Add some young, bigger receivers. Center the offense on Kincaid.

 

[Der Jaeger]

You still can't get there with where they are at right now. They have pushed so much into the future that it is impossible to get out of everything in '24.

Yes, Beane pushed a lot of money into the future with re-structures. But most of that's already factored in no matter what he does. Eg: Dawkins will carry a dead cap hit of $5.4M in 2025. That's going to hit no matter who gets traded, re-structured, cut, etc.

It's possible to get out of a lot of the issue with a reset year in 2024 and some re-structures that allow the team some breathing room. With they pay for it later? Sure. But that's coming after the next version of the Bills has their run.

 

[yahhockey]

We will see what happens Sunday but I don't think it will be a like a light switch going from Dorsey to Brady. Things may improve but it may also take until after the bye week that there is a noticeable difference. Fingers crossed it works out.

 

[buffa dud]

The piper appears to be collecting payment a lot sooner than Beane expected.

Beane probably thought he had two kicks at the proverbial can with Von. Maybe three at the most.

Then, injuries took that three year window and turned it to one.

****ing sucks.

 

[Dubi Doo]

Damn, I didnt realize Stef's brother also took a shot at Allen. Stef better address that with his brother. The last thing he needs, if he is committed to this organization, is his brother throwing shade at his QB and also causing drama.

 

[misterchainsaw]

Why are we still doing this with Diggs? He hasn't said/done shit since the one day miscommunication in training camp, was once again named a captain by his teammates, and has been a model teammate all year.

Stef isn't responsible for what his dumbass brother does while he's bored with his ACL injury half a country away.

 

[Zman5778]

Why are we still doing this with Diggs? He hasn't said/done shit since the one day miscommunication in training camp, was once again named a captain by his teammates, and has been a model teammate all year.

Stef isn't responsible for what his dumbass brother does while he's bored with his ACL injury half a country away.

I think most every NFL fan defaults to "Good WRs are always divas" anymore. And since we've got an elite WR, he HAS to be a diva.

 

[zenthusiast]

Something I never really thought about but if the goal is minimizing mistakes, it makes sense

 

[Zman5778]

Something I never really thought about but if the goal is minimizing mistakes, it makes sense

Yeah, I had that thought at some point Monday night or Tuesday -- "Wait.....why did we even sub to begin with????"

I distinctly remember VERY recently (maybe even Monday night) a FG where the opposition unit had to scramble to get off and we stayed with our base D. So it's not like we haven't stayed base before.

 

[Jim Bob]

Well, he picked a good hoodie for his first presser as the interim OC.

 

[kirby11]

Something I never really thought about but if the goal is minimizing mistakes, it makes sense

Hearing about this debacle after it went down, I was really surprised that they didn't either (a) send the FG block unit out a play early when Denver was clearly going to kneel down and go full Chinese fire drill for the kick with so little time left or (b) keep the 11 defenders on and tell them, "don't go offsides, we'll live with whatever happens on the kick, thanks for battling all night"

 

[Jim Bob]

Yes, Beane pushed a lot of money into the future with re-structures. But most of that's already factored in no matter what he does. Eg: Dawkins will carry a dead cap hit of $5.4M in 2025. That's going to hit no matter who gets traded, re-structured, cut, etc.

It's possible to get out of a lot of the issue with a reset year in 2024 and some re-structures that allow the team some breathing room. With they pay for it later? Sure. But that's coming after the next version of the Bills has their run.

You cannot do what you propose and get 53 players under the cap.

 

[kirby11]

Yeah, I had that thought at some point Monday night or Tuesday -- "Wait.....why did we even sub to begin with????"

I distinctly remember VERY recently (maybe even Monday night) a FG where the opposition unit had to scramble to get off and we stayed with our base D. So it's not like we haven't stayed base before.

1st half, I'm pretty sure. Denver got a completion with ~15 seconds left, rushed their kicking unit on, and the Bills didn't sub

 

[Zman5778]

Hearing about this debacle after it went down, I was really surprised that they didn't either (a) send the FG block unit out a play early when Denver was clearly going to kneel down and go full Chinese fire drill for the kick with so little time left or (b) keep the 11 defenders on and tell them, "don't go offsides, we'll live with whatever happens on the kick, thanks for battling all night"

Yeah. My immediate thought when this bullshit went down was "WHY DIDN'T WE PUT THE BLOCK UNIT ON FOR 3rd DOWN WHEN IT WAS CLEAR THEY WERE TAKING A KNEE".

 

[Zman5778]

1st half, I'm pretty sure. Denver got a completion with ~15 seconds left, rushed their kicking unit on, and the Bills didn't sub

Yeah, I wanted to say it was the end of the 1st half against Denver..........but the memory of that game is fuzzy

 

[ValJamesDuex]

Hearing about this debacle after it went down, I was really surprised that they didn't either (a) send the FG block unit out a play early when Denver was clearly going to kneel down and go full Chinese fire drill for the kick with so little time left or (b) keep the 11 defenders on and tell them, "don't go offsides, we'll live with whatever happens on the kick, thanks for battling all night"

There are quality control coaches that should be helping these bad decisions as well.

 

[misterchainsaw]

Yeah. My immediate thought when this bullshit went down was "WHY DIDN'T WE PUT THE BLOCK UNIT ON FOR 3rd DOWN WHEN IT WAS CLEAR THEY WERE TAKING A KNEE".

I thought about this, but the danger there is if the other team notices. Now you've got what, 2-3 corners on the field and a bunch of big men with plenty of time left to run an actual play (and you with no timeouts)?

I'd rather leave the base (dime) defense out for the FG than try to get cute and substitute the FG unit out early in that situation.

 

[Jim Bob]

There are quality control coaches that should be helping these bad decisions as well.

The irony is that Smiley, the ST coordinator, is the coach that has had more game scenario decision-making power this season with McD running the defense on gameday.

 

[misterchainsaw]

The irony is that Smiley, the ST coordinator, is the coach that has had more game scenario decision-making power this season with McD running the defense on gameday.

Yeah, I think we can all agree they need to hire a DC this offseason.

 

[kirby11]

Just read the Athletic article on this scenario--it's both enlightening and infuriating.

To provide a quick summary for non-subscribers:
-Almost all offenses have a specific way to sub on fire drill kicks--players getting off run horizontally to the sidelines, the kicking team guys come in at an angle from another spot on the sidelines to avoid colliding, losing time, or causing confusion amongst who's supposed to be where.
-Denver executed it to perfection, to the point that one ST coach they talked to said they had more time left than they thought, and Lutz may have missed the kick by rushing when he didn't need to.
-McD said they normally call for the defense on the field to stay there to avoid subbing, but Smiley wanted to get the block team on.
-To that end, I have no idea what some of the Bills were doing when they went past the LOS and ran toward Wilson after he kneeled instead of either getting lined up properly or sprinting off. Based on the errors from that game and other late-game mistakes, it seems like they collectively struggle with communication in big spots.