Buffalo Bills Season's End: The Off-Seasons Starts Now

[Dirty Dog]

The four teams the bills beat have 12 combined wins. To put that in perspective, the five teams the dolphins beat have a combined 5 wins.

 

[Waterfowlist]

I mean, they did travel to London and back. I know we can’t make excuses for everything and all teams have crazy schedules, but we also can’t act as though it doesn’t impact performance.

 

[Dubi Doo]

I'm at the point as a fan where Im not going to be annoyed by ugly wins anymore. We know Allen is streaky. He just needs to keep the lows not so low as they were in the past, and we need him to go on a heater at the right time.

The good news is, I hyper focused on Von one play, and he got off he LOS so fast I thought he was offside. He was on Tyrod's ass in an instant. It was good to see.

I worry how the defense will play against top tier offenses, but that's a story for another day.

 

[TageGod]

Or use Kincaid as a TE and use 12 personnel. Either or works.

Their production is not nearly as efficient in 12 personnel. In 6 games their TE's combined for 200 yards.

 

[Husko]

Go back to 11 personnel, Josh under center, and play action. Analytics don't lie. Line up Kincaid as a WR instead of a TE.

Their production is not nearly as efficient in 12 personnel. In 6 games their TE's combined for 200 yards.

What analytics are you looking at?

When you say 11 personnel with Kincaid lined up at WR, do you mean completely spread out with no one attached to the LOS? So basically a 4 wide look but one of the 4 is Kincaid?

 

[Paxon]

Their production is not nearly as efficient in 12 personnel. In 6 games their TE's combined for 200 yards.

Yea well, how does the offense's production look? That's what is important.

Also, is it not 12 personnel regardless of where Knox and Kincaid line up, so long as they are out there?

 

[WeDislikeEich]

https://www.si.com/nfl/2023/10/16/robert-saleh-jets-defense-embarrassed-eagles

"Thought defense, per the usual, outstanding," Saleh said. "Through these first six weeks we’ve played a gauntlet of quarterbacks and I know we haven’t gotten all wins, but we’ve embarrassed all of them. Just really, really proud of the defense and its resolve."


Robert Saleh giving the Bills/Allen some nice bulletin board material.

 

[Dubi Doo]

https://www.si.com/nfl/2023/10/16/robert-saleh-jets-defense-embarrassed-eagles

"Thought defense, per the usual, outstanding," Saleh said. "Through these first six weeks we’ve played a gauntlet of quarterbacks and I know we haven’t gotten all wins, but we’ve embarrassed all of them. Just really, really proud of the defense and its resolve."


Robert Saleh giving the Bills/Allen some nice bulletin board material.

He ain't lying, and I like defenses with attitude. How Wilson look yesterday? I was at the Bills game.

 

[TageGod]

What analytics are you looking at?

When you say 11 personnel with Kincaid lined up at WR, do you mean completely spread out with no one attached to the LOS? So basically a 4 wide look but one of the 4 is Kincaid?

3 WR with one as Kincaid. Knox in as the TE.

They are top 3 efficiency in 11 personnel and they run it at a rate near the bottom of the league. Yet they run 12 personnel near the top and have average production.

 

[WeDislikeEich]

He ain't lying, and I like defenses with attitude. How Wilson look yesterday? I was at the Bills game.

It’s still a dumb thing for a head coach to say. I guarantee you that Mahomes/Allen/Prescott remember that quote and will have some extra motivation next time they play the jets (just like the jets did when they played the broncos, due to Sean Payton’s comments).

And for what? So the head coach could boast to the media? That quote has been played a dozen times on football talk shows today.

 

[Taro Tsujimoto]

 

[Jim Bob]

3 WR with one as Kincaid. Knox in as the TE.

They are top 3 efficiency in 11 personnel and they run it at a rate near the bottom of the league. Yet they run 12 personnel near the top and have average production.

If Kincaid and Knox are out there, it is 12 personnel. Personnel is about the players out there and not the formation.

So, I have no idea what you are talking about when saying Kincaid as a WR.

Their base offense right now is 12 personnel with Diggs, Davis, Kincaid, Knox, and Cook/Murray/Harris.

That has nothing to do with formation and whether Kincaid is inline, detached, or put in motion.

 

[kirby11]

He ain't lying, and I like defenses with attitude. How Wilson look yesterday? I was at the Bills game.

Pretty meh. Didn't make any backbreaking mistakes, but didn't really do anything that good either. Fed Wilson a ton. Got carried by the defense again.

 

[Jim Bob]

 

[TageGod]

If Kincaid and Knox are out there, it is 12 personnel. Personnel is about the players out there and not the formation.

So, I have no idea what you are talking about when saying Kincaid as a WR.

Their base offense right now is 12 personnel with Diggs, Davis, Kincaid, Knox, and Cook/Murray/Harris.

That has nothing to do with formation and whether Kincaid is inline, detached, or put in motion.

The suggestion is to put Kincaid out as a receiver. 3 WR 1TE 1RB

The bolded is what is NOT working well. Our run game is better, at the expense of our pass game, and we are struggling to score now. Not a coincidence.

 

[brian_griffin]

Hopefully a fat loss here will bring some real self assessments. It feels like, in the past, this team has a good win after a loss and just brushes away their red flags. This team looks like one that will miss the playoffs

On the topic of fat loss, Daboll allegedly lost 50 pounds when he went from BUF to NY. Certainly looks like he put it all back and then some. Dude could stroke out before he turns 50yo. I don't think Daboll is as tall as Andy Reid. Who do you think weighs more between the two of them? I put Daboll at least 300lbs maybe 350. (~135-160 kilos)

Collinsworth is such a buffoon

He could announce the second coming of Jesus and I'd still cringe.

Those trucks on the Peace Bridge haven't moved since the 1st Quarter.

I saw shots looking East at the Peace Bridge toward downtown. How'd they get them unless they went to Canada? (I assume previous evening.) I don't think you can fly a drone over the international border (legally).

They look terrible. but the Eagles and Niners lost to backup QBs today. it’s the league.

Also fire Dorsey

Both the Jets and Browns have top-rate defenses.

I wonder how Daboll antics go over with his players. On multiple occasions we’ve seen him go off on his QB after a decision he disagreed with. Seems like a good way to undermine your QBs confidence and lead to more poor decision making.

Probably still pissed at TT for short-cutting him in the pre-game buffet line.

 

[Jim Bob]

The suggestion is to put Kincaid out as a receiver. 3 WR 1TE 1RB

The bolded is what is NOT working well. Our run game is better, at the expense of our pass game, and we are struggling to score now. Not a coincidence.

They are a top 3 offense by most measures. It absolutely is working.

And Kincaid is a TE regardless of where he is placed in a formation. So any measures that talk about 11 personnel or 12 personnel count Kincaid as a TE even if he is lined up in a formation in what is a traditionally a "WR position".

So, what you are talking about is just not how things actually work.

 

[Jim Bob]

 

[Jim Bob]

 

[TageGod]

They are a top 3 offense by most measures. It absolutely is working.

And Kincaid is a TE regardless of where he is placed in a formation. So any measures that talk about 11 personnel or 12 personnel count Kincaid as a TE even if he is lined up in a formation in what is a traditionally a "WR position".

So, what you are talking about is just not how things actually work.

They are a top 3 because their play action and 3 WR set plays are top 3 in efficiency this year. Yet they prefer to run two WR and shotgun sets which are actively hampering their offense. Being 12th best at something is not good enough for a superbowl contender. Shotgun also kills the run game imo.

 

[Husko]

3 WR with one as Kincaid. Knox in as the TE.

They are top 3 efficiency in 11 personnel and they run it at a rate near the bottom of the league. Yet they run 12 personnel near the top and have average production.

That would be 12 personnel not 11.

Where are you getting your efficiency numbers? I’d love to dig into it.

 

[Der Jaeger]

Some things the 12 vs 11 personnel debate needs to take into account are that Kincaid is a rookie, and the Bills are 6 games into a season where they want to use more 12 personnel.

If by next year at this time, 12 personnel isn't working, then there's a discussion to be had.

 

[buffa dud]

I mean, they did travel to London and back. I know we can’t make excuses for everything and all teams have crazy schedules, but we also can’t act as though it doesn’t impact performance.

It always surprises (and somewhat disappoints) me when fans lose perspective that these are professional athletes being paid millions upon millions upon millions of dollars to perform at the absolute highest level humanly possible. And when they don't, there are now just as many people around the world vying for their job. Everything ****ing matters. Everything.

I'm at the point as a fan where Im not going to be annoyed by ugly wins anymore. We know Allen is streaky. He just needs to keep the lows not so low as they were in the past, and we need him to go on a heater at the right time.

The good news is, I hyper focused on Von one play, and he got off he LOS so fast I thought he was offside. He was on Tyrod's ass in an instant. It was good to see.

I worry how the defense will play against top tier offenses, but that's a story for another day.

I mean...

Their production is not nearly as efficient in 12 personnel. In 6 games their TE's combined for 200 yards.

You're looking at it myopically.

Through 6 games played, the Bills' running backs have averaged 97.5 rushing yards per game to last year's 88.5. They've averaged 0.67 touchdowns per game to last year's 0.43. They are smashing in success rate (Cook, Murray, Harris =53, 54, 65 vs Singletary, Cook, Moss = 52, 50, 35).

The team's red-zone conversion rate is improved (18 TDs in 24 attempts this year vs 35 TDs in 58 attempts),

Because we're no longer relying on Allen to literally do it all, his run-game efficiency has improved. In 2022, Allen finished with 124 rush attempts. This year, he's on pace for about 66! Last year, he finished with 7 TDs, 55 first downs and a success rate of 61. This year, he's on pace for 9 TDs, 33 first downs and a success rate of 68.

12 personnel and the new o-line have given this team an added dimension that we probably could have used a couple years ago in KC.

I will say this: the one thing that could use some improvement is the implementation of a ****ing screen game!

 

[buffa dud]

The four teams the bills beat have 12 combined wins. To put that in perspective, the five teams the dolphins beat have a combined 5 wins.

Where'd you find that perspective? And can I get some?

 

[Jim Bob]

It's too bad that Stef is miserable in Buffalo.

Sad.