SCF: Florida Panthers vs Edmonton Oilers (Series Tied 3-3) Hold onto your butts, Game 7, Monday 8/24 @ 8pm ET !

[Leonardo87]

**Stanley Cup Final**
Florida Panthers vs Edmonton Oilers

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[Seattle Totems]

5-4 split ... yikes!

So it's basically 50-50 when a team forces it. This certainly throws out the insurmountable odds stat when a team is down 3-0. Also, according to those series, it seems that when a team dominates the next three games they have a winning record and the losing outcomes are close. Small sample size but the stats favour the Oilers.

 

[LuGBuG]

lol gift wrapped, thats cute.

Sorry I don’t mean they were gift wrapped the series by refs or any other power. Just like the hockey gods are too good to that franchise lol.

 

[ijuka]

So it's basically 50-50 when a team forces it. This certainly throws out the insurmountable odds stat when a team is down 3-0. Also, according to those series, it seems that when a team dominates the next three games they have a winning record and the losing outcomes are close. Small sample size but the stats favour the Oilers.

Statistics.

If a team is 0-3 what does it tell about these two teams? Generally, it tells you that the team that won the first three games is the better team, by a good margin.

So when considering comebacks from down 0-3, we're not just considering the odds of winning 4 in a row, we're also considering that the team you need to win against is probably far better than your team.

Here's why this stat is stupid and misleading:

This has happened 27 times. In game 4, the team that was down 0-3 is 7-20.

So the vast majority of the stat is accounted for by simply assuming that the team that's down 0-3 is the significantly worse team. But even after just one win to bring it to 1-3, the probabilities get skewed so much that almost all of that bias is gone. So of the 7, two teams made it to 3-3. That's already above expectations(Now even more so, with 3 out of 8).

The point is, the important hurdle was the 1-3 victory. After that, the stat from 0-3 is completely meaningless. We have new information, and need to make use of it.

Right now, what matters is the stats at 3-3. The fact that the series used to be 0-3 is of very minor significance in the grand scheme of things.

 

[CascadiaPenguin]

I get it that Edm is using there speed but there are ways to slow them down but the problem is Florida right now is so confused they don't know what to do and are getting cought out of position. The speed game isn't something new to the NHL. It has alway been there with many teams.

Chosing pinches wisely, not falling down, and avoiding stupid passes during the PP are essential tools to combat superior speed.

 

[Jumptheshark]

If the Panthers lose game 7, they are really lucky that they're a small market team in a marginal sport.

Let me twist this a bit.

Edmonton is a fish bowl and all players and management are under the scope 24/7. As we saw a few weeks ago McDavid could not go to the local store buy stuff without getting bugged. OIlers have been feeling the heat for years.. I lived in Ft Lauderdale for nearly 2 years and hockey is not as popular as many other sports and players can get on with their lives away from the arena. Not in Edmonton. Game 7 will come down to mental toughness and who can keep more focus on the prize. 99% of the noise aimed at the Panthers is not coming from their home city--it is coming from elsewhere.

IF the oiler lose, it will be interesting to see how oiler fans react. Hopefully they will stay positive.

The Oilers team were under attack all year from Oiler fans and they had to put their big boy pants on way back in November. Oilers faces A lot of adversity this year while the Panthers went along smoothly more or less.

This run has left me in shock.

 

[Nogatco Rd]

Mods here generally do a great job but I do think it would be cool if we were able to have prediction threads or at least separate polls for each game

 

[Skolman]

No. Oilers fans will if they lose.

For most of us Panthers’ fans, the series ended yesterday. Game 7 is just a formality at this point.

So losing on Monday won’t do much.

Right.....

 

[Snatcher Demko]

Well I never thought I'd be here cheering for McDavid and the Oilers but I think my Edm buddies have won me over. You can't ask for more that a Game 7. Loving this exciting finish and I'm thrilled for the city.

 

[Gil Gunderson]

I feel it. We’re going to witness Game 7 OT for the Stanley Cup.

 

[psycat]

As a Canadian I want Edmonton to win the cup for sure, Oilers fans deserves it way more then Florida where for many years the building was empty and then all of a sudden when the team is good you see all those Panthers fans jumping on the bandwagon and I guarantee you as soon as the Panthers start to be bad again all those "fans" won't give a shit about the Panthers and the building will empty again. On the other hand the building was always full in Edmonton even when the Oilers were at the bottom the standings. Edmonton really care and love their Edmonton Oilers and that's true in all Canadian markets. Let's go Oilers!!!

On the third hand Oilers(along with a couple of other teams) got gifted #1 after #1 in favorable drafts as rewards for sucking. Hard cheering for that.

 

[NJ DevLolz]

based on how this series has went , I bet the Rangers would have wiped the floor with the Panthers!!!

 

[winnipegger]

Verhagy and Reinhart look terrible the last several games. Barkov still a beast. Florida has lost the jump they had for the first 3 rounds. Their forecheck is non existent. The oilers stretch the ice and execute the flip under pressure. If Florida doesn't have a new game plan or get their top 6 producing again game 7 will be a very similar score to game 6. Bob isn't going to win the cup for you.

 

[Mike C]

I feel it. We’re going to witness Game 7 OT for the Stanley

Wasn't game 7 but Tonelli to Nystrom is music to my ears whenever a Cup series is decided OT

 

[McShogun99]

I won't even be mad if the Oilers lose game 7. It's amazing that they pushed it this far and I feel that they'll win a Cup in the next few years as long as they can keep their key players together.

 

[LTIR]

The way I understand it, the winning team has two names they can put forward to be placed on the Cup for people that didn't meet the criteria.

Curious though if the Oilers win on Monday, would Woodcroft get his name on the cup? I would guess not but I am not sure.

They should put woodys name on the cup and then strike through it.
They guy has been sore loser after getting fired.

 

[Nemec]

Pathetic series by FLA. Even worse than the Rangers.

 

[LTIR]

Perry is an intangibles guy. I could easily see him agitating a guy and drawing a penalty. He's got vet experience and a solid hockey IQ. I'd leave him alone and let him do what he does


You mean like when the guy proposes by saying "don't worry, I'll marry ya"

No one is agitating anyone anymore.. that shit is for first couple games only. Oilers are now just taking the hit and making the plays.

Pathetic series by FLA. Even worse than the Rangers.

Don't agree ... they have been giving it their best and have had good stretches of pressure.
PP is costing them this series.

 

[McShogun99]

So it's basically 50-50 when a team forces it. This certainly throws out the insurmountable odds stat when a team is down 3-0. Also, according to those series, it seems that when a team dominates the next three games they have a winning record and the losing outcomes are close. Small sample size but the stats favour the Oilers.

What is the record for the home team in game 7 in this situation? I know it's 5-4 lifetime for the team that was up 3-0 but is it something like 4-1 for the home team?

 

[Mr Positive]

I won't even be mad if the Oilers lose game 7. It's amazing that they pushed it this far and I feel that they'll win a Cup in the next few years as long as they can keep their key players together.

I wouldn't be mad but I'd be awful bummed. I've been through the SCF comeback in 2006, even with the huge game 6 win, and the comeback doesn't make losing the cup sting any less.

 

[gretzkyoilers]

I get it that Edm is using there speed but there are ways to slow them down but the problem is Florida right now is so confused they don't know what to do and are getting cought out of position. The speed game isn't something new to the NHL. It has alway been there with many teams.

This is what Vegas did the Florida in the last finals and now Edmonton is doing the same. The Oilers are using stretch passes and they are a much faster team that can finish. Not sure on what adjustment Maurice can make but like Pete for Dallas, these veteran coaches who have not won a Cup seem to fall flat. Knobby, Mark Stuart and Coffey have done an outstanding job to adjust to all of their series. The Oilers PK is unreal.

We'll see on Monday!

 

[Czechboy]

I won't even be mad if the Oilers lose game 7. It's amazing that they pushed it this far and I feel that they'll win a Cup in the next few years as long as they can keep their key players together.

By my count (and I could be wrong) Hometeam is 9-3 in Game 7 Finals.

 

[Luigi Lemieux]

Verhagy and Reinhart look terrible the last several games. Barkov still a beast. Florida has lost the jump they had for the first 3 rounds. Their forecheck is non existent. The oilers stretch the ice and execute the flip under pressure. If Florida doesn't have a new game plan or get their top 6 producing again game 7 will be a very similar score to game 6. Bob isn't going to win the cup for you.

Knoblauch has adjusted nicely this series. Maurice has not and doesn't seem to have any answers

 

[HANK30]

@Pavel Buchnevich who is the second best playoff team now?

Panthers

 

[Seattle Totems]

Statistics.

If a team is 0-3 what does it tell about these two teams? Generally, it tells you that the team that won the first three games is the better team, by a good margin.

So when considering comebacks from down 0-3, we're not just considering the odds of winning 4 in a row, we're also considering that the team you need to win against is probably far better than your team.

Here's why this stat is stupid and misleading:

This has happened 27 times. In game 4, the team that was down 0-3 is 7-20.

So the vast majority of the stat is accounted for by simply assuming that the team that's down 0-3 is the significantly worse team. But even after just one win to bring it to 1-3, the probabilities get skewed so much that almost all of that bias is gone. So of the 7, two teams made it to 3-3. That's already above expectations(Now even more so, with 3 out of 8).

The point is, the important hurdle was the 1-3 victory. After that, the stat from 0-3 is completely meaningless. We have new information, and need to make use of it.

Right now, what matters is the stats at 3-3. The fact that the series used to be 0-3 is of very minor significance in the grand scheme of things.

It's highly improbable for a team to come back from a 3-0 deficit. I made the point that it's 50- 50 for game seven and talked about the Oilers dominance.

There are five other teams that have scored more than 5 goals 3 times in a Stanley Cup final. All five of those teams won the Cup.

The Oilers are the heavy favourites going into game seven. They came back and beat the odds. That's my point.

 

[Pass the Saitl Sauce]

I can't tell if this is more of a Panthers choke or an Oilers comeback.

I don't think 3-0 was indicative of the actual play on the ice. You could sense that the Oilers were putting it together in the 3rd period of Game 3. This feels more like a 3-1 or 3-2 comeback than it does 3-0.

Whatever happens, I can't remember a game with more drama surrounding it than this. Possibly in any sport. We will either witness a 30 year curse break, or an entire franchise pull themselves from the brink of destruction.

And if I'm an Oilers fan right now, even if they lose this season has been an unquestionable success. That core looks like it could be a perennial threat for years to come, especially if Draisaitl resigns. I don't see this as their only chance at a Cup.

By play on the ice after 4 games I’d have said the series should have been tied 2-2 but oilers got killed on bad plays almost every chance. When it was 3-0 I as an oiler fan thought this was all done. I’m so hyped it’s going game 7.

And you are correct oilers have a opportunity to build off of this season if managed correctly, they’re doing this with a $5m starting goalie in the AHL