Blue Jays Discussion: Saunders > Bruce; Tulo and Bautista trade DL spots

[p.l.f.]

chris davis grandslam 1st inning

 

[zeke]

Devon Travis, Career Numbers

342pa, .327babip, 124wrc+, 2.9fwar, 3.4bwar

per 650pa: 5.5fwar, 6.5bwar, 6.0 average war

 

[Amadeus]

Its not working out with Stroman. He needs to go to the BP, IMO.

 

[Eyedea]

He's definitely not going to the bullpen.

 

[dredeye]

Not a great start against weaker competition. We need to start winning these series

 

[The Nemesis]

Its not working out with Stroman. He needs to go to the BP, IMO.

Gregg Zaun, is that you?

 

[TF97]

Its not working out with Stroman. He needs to go to the BP, IMO.

Please explain why this ridiculous proposal should happen.

 

[King Mapes]

Please explain why this ridiculous proposal should happen.

Really though. If anything him and Hutch switch spots but no way is the BP the spot to go. He's struggling he's young. It happens.

 

[The Nemesis]

Really though. If anything him and Hutch switch spots but no way is the BP the spot to go. He's struggling he's young. It happens.

But rabble rabble downward plane rabble rabble promoted too soon rabble rabble rabble can't change the eye level rabble Tom Gordon.

 

[King Mapes]

I really hope he turns it around though. Great guy. Throws tantrums at times but aside from that, seems like a great character who just wants to win. His stuff is good, he's just missing and leaving too many over the plate.

 

[King Mapes]

But rabble rabble downward plane rabble rabble promoted too soon rabble rabble rabble can't change the eye level rabble Tom Gordon.

Actually earlier today I read he's the next Romero. Funny I heard that about Sanchez last year. Where are those people at? Just like every good Leaf prospect is the next Gagne every pitcher in a rough patch is Romero. It's like people forget about Halladay. One of his first seasons was beyond bad. Like... Incredibly bad.

 

[The Nemesis]

Actually earlier today I read he's the next Romero. Funny I heard that about Sanchez last year. Where are those people at? Just like every good Leaf prospect is the next Gagne every pitcher in a rough patch is Romero. It's like people forget about Halladay. One of his first seasons was beyond bad. Like... Incredibly bad.

Worst ERA in MLB history for a pitcher who made at least 10 starts (10.64)

It's since been supplanted by Brian Matusz though, who put up a sterling 10.69 in 2011 for the O's.

 

[The Nemesis]

Actually earlier today I read he's the next Romero. Funny I heard that about Sanchez last year. Where are those people at? Just like every good Leaf prospect is the next Gagne every pitcher in a rough patch is Romero. It's like people forget about Halladay. One of his first seasons was beyond bad. Like... Incredibly bad.

The Romero thing is hilarious because of how wrong it is in just an analogous sense. Romero went to **** because his command vanished and he started walking guys and serving up meatballs. And that happened because he was pitching on two destroyed knees.

Stroman's command hasn't deserted him. His issue seems to entirely be approach. He's abandoned his slider and changeup to notable degrees so he can throw a bunch more cutters and two-seamers over the plate and watch them get knocked around. He's even ahead of his k/9 pace from last year, so it's not like he's abandoned striking out guys in favor of "pitching to contact".

The D also seems to be hurting him. Or at least he's getting the misfortune of balls finding holes in the IF. He's got a high GB rate, but a slight uptick in BABIP and while the 5.23 ERA looks gaudy, his FIP/xFIP are much more workable at 3.89/3.78. SIERA is 3.94 as well. None of those are no-hitter-every-game ace level, but they're a hell of a lot better than his ERA and surface stats would suggest he's been. At the very least they suggest a light at the end of the tunnel. A light that isn't really an oncoming train.

 

[King Mapes]

The bullpen wasn't exactly helping Stroman early on either. Romero seemed to completely lose confidence in himself too. It's a shame. I really liked the guy.

As for Halladay I didn't know he had the record but dear lord he was bad.

 

[The Nemesis]

Because quoting it made me think of a comparison, how the Jays' rotation stacks up, based on SIERA:

1) Sanchez - 3.51
2) Stroman - 3.94
3) Estrada - 4.42
4) Happ - 4.63
5) Dickey - 4.76
6) Hutchison - 4.79 *Small sample size alert*

For those that don't know, SIERA (Skill-Indicative ERA. Click the name for the Fangraphs glossary page.) is another FIP/xFIP type model that attempts to revalue pitcher performance without the noise caused by the defence playing behind the pitcher. Unlike FIP and xFIP though, SIERA includes balls in play in its model, allowing for differences borne out through a pitcher's GB and FB tendencies and not just the non-play factors like the other measures.

It's calibrated onto an ERA like scale too, so according to Fangraphs, the rough quality-to-value scale is:

2.90 - excellent
3.25 - great
3.75 - above average
3.90 - average
4.20 - below average
4.50 - poor
5.00 - are you sure you shouldn't be in AA?

Of course, with all defence-independent stat models there are some kinks and wrinkles. FWIW, FIP and xFIP produce the same ranking order as SIERA in terms of Jays' pitchers, except that xFIP really hates Estrada's ball-in-play-dependent, super crazy BABIP year and slides him down to 5th ahead of just Hutch.

Time will tell if those SIERA #s end up hinting at a forthcoming reality adjustment for the pitchers, but it's food for thought. Mostly that the only guy who is legitimately pitching to expectation is the one guy that a lot didn't expect it from: Sanchez.

 

[zeke]

Vladdy with another dinger.

swoon.

 

[The Nemesis]

Vladdy with another dinger.

swoon.

I hope he gets a stop in Vancouver this season instead of sending him right from Bluefield ot Lansing.

 

[zeke]

sure but then again A- is a weirdo level used for a landing spot for college draftees mostly iirc. Lots of guys skip it. I'd love to see him get a taste of Lansing if he earns it.

Though whether those teams are in playoff contention might make the decision for them - with him going to whichever team plays in the postseason.

 

[Suntouchable13]

Because quoting it made me think of a comparison, how the Jays' rotation stacks up, based on SIERA:

1) Sanchez - 3.51
2) Stroman - 3.94
3) Estrada - 4.42
4) Happ - 4.63
5) Dickey - 4.76
6) Hutchison - 4.79 *Small sample size alert*

For those that don't know, SIERA (Skill-Indicative ERA. Click the name for the Fangraphs glossary page.) is another FIP/xFIP type model that attempts to revalue pitcher performance without the noise caused by the defence playing behind the pitcher. Unlike FIP and xFIP though, SIERA includes balls in play in its model, allowing for differences borne out through a pitcher's GB and FB tendencies and not just the non-play factors like the other measures.

It's calibrated onto an ERA like scale too, so according to Fangraphs, the rough quality-to-value scale is:

2.90 - excellent
3.25 - great
3.75 - above average
3.90 - average
4.20 - below average
4.50 - poor
5.00 - are you sure you shouldn't be in AA?

Of course, with all defence-independent stat models there are some kinks and wrinkles. FWIW, FIP and xFIP produce the same ranking order as SIERA in terms of Jays' pitchers, except that xFIP really hates Estrada's ball-in-play-dependent, super crazy BABIP year and slides him down to 5th ahead of just Hutch.

Time will tell if those SIERA #s end up hinting at a forthcoming reality adjustment for the pitchers, but it's food for thought. Mostly that the only guy who is legitimately pitching to expectation is the one guy that a lot didn't expect it from: Sanchez.

I think that Estrada has been great this year. He induces really weak contact that really has no chance of being a hit. He has been great for many starts now, there is no reason for me to believe that he will crash anytime soon. Sorry if that ruins your narrative. And Stroman should go down to AAA for a couple of starts, it's not a death sentence. He is not giving the Jays a chance to win right now when he is pitching.

 

[The Nemesis]

I think that Estrada has been great this year. He induces really weak contact that really has no chance of being a hit. He has been great for many starts now, there is no reason for me to believe that he will crash anytime soon. Sorry if that ruins your narrative. And Stroman should go down to AAA for a couple of starts, it's not a death sentence. He is not giving the Jays a chance to win right now when he is pitching.

I wasn't presenting a narrative. There's nothing to "ruin"

All the underlying evidence says that Estrada's performance last year and so far this year are really unusual and tend toward unsustainability. Maybe Estrada's figured it out. I hope he has. I love watching him pitch. History suggests though that we should probably prepare for the worst though.

 

[ShaneFalco]

I really hope he turns it around though. Great guy. Throws tantrums at times but aside from that, seems like a great character who just wants to win. His stuff is good, he's just missing and leaving too many over the plate.

I guess it's better he struggles now then down the stretch or in the playoffs. I have faith he'll figure it out....we really need him to

 

[frost king]

I really hope he turns it around though. Great guy. Throws tantrums at times but aside from that, seems like a great character who just wants to win. His stuff is good, he's just missing and leaving too many over the plate.

Baseball is a game about controlling your emotions, so Stroman has the wrong mental make-up to play this game at this level. The great pitchers in the game today, don't throw temper tantrums, when things go wrong, like this kid. You get the feeling, when he starts getting shelled, in a game, he has lost control of his emotions, and tries to do too much. If he doesn't get his act together soon, his new nickname is going to be "piñata."

 

[Discoverer]

Baseball is a game about controlling your emotions

Nope, it definitely isn't.

 

[Suntouchable13]

I expect a sweep. Not going to be a walk in the park, but the Jays need to sweep these inferior teams once in a while.

 

[Morgs]

Baseball is a game about controlling your emotions, so Stroman has the wrong mental make-up to play this game at this level. The great pitchers in the game today, don't throw temper tantrums, when things go wrong, like this kid. You get the feeling, when he starts getting shelled, in a game, he has lost control of his emotions, and tries to do too much. If he doesn't get his act together soon, his new nickname is going to be "piñata."

Guess Kershaw isn't a great pitcher.