I don't think Dumoulin will get as much as people think.
Its hard to find a comparable for him, Ryan Murray was the closest i could come up with.
In 2015-2016 Murray got 25 points in 82 games, he played 22 minutes a game
Last year Dumoulin got 15 points in 70 games, he played 20 and a half minutes a game.
Murray got a 2 year bridge contract for 2.8 million a year.
I could see something like that for Dumo.
I think that's probably one of the better comparables for him when discussing arbitration. Alzner is another one at 2.9m. If you're talking a long term contract, I don't think either applies, but with the limitations arbitration has, I think those are probably the two more accurate ones.
Now that i think of it those were Murray's rfa years, this contract will be Dumo's ufa years, so he would probably get more then Murray.
I'm gonna guess Dumoulin will be around 3.5 million per year.
No arbitrator can award a contract that takes up UFA years. Dumoulin has 2 RFA years left.
Surely they wont just look at points when the value Dmen in arbitration?
The fact Dumoulin has played 21 and 22 minutes per game in back to back Cup runs has surely got to be factored in.
They wont just ignore the fact that the guy played 1st pairing D minutes in back to back cup wins because he doesn't score a lot.
I don't think he gets 4 in arbitration, probably around the 3 mark.
I just think we should be giving him 4 to get him signed long term.
The agent can point to any number that is on NHL.com (found anywhere on NHL.com) as an argument to back up his case. TOI will be a huge one for him - especially in game 6 vs NSH when he played 26 minutes. Same with game 7 vs OTT, where he played 20:30 in the first 3 periods and 8 minutes in OT1. Same with game 7 vs WSH, where he played 23:40. Basically every big must win game, Dumoulin was at or near the top of the list in TOI for the blueliners, and that's going to be a huge thing that is agent points to - especially if he wasn't getting scored on while he was on the ice (I think the only easy way to find that is looking up each game's TOI sheet).
What about Larsson? He got $4.167 per year.
I'd pay that to Dumoulin if we're getting 6 years from him. But it can't be used in arbitration.
I don't think Dumo is going to get too much from an arbitration case. So I'm not worried about that. I look at a guy like Kreider for Sheary. The guy has one season with amazing stats. I can't find a comparable. Kreider had 3 seasons and was working his way up. Looking through these, I think his case is extremely interesting.
Agree with you about Dumoulin. It might go as high as 3.2m, but I doubt it. Regardless of how it goes, I'm not worried as I'm confident that he'll be worth it. I just want to get a long term deal done with him asap, but it's a process and it'll eventually get sorted out (one way or another).
Fortunately for us there's very few comparables for Sheary. 99.9% of the names we'll name fall into one of three categories: 1) Didn't perform as well as Sheary, 2) have more history to fall back on, 3) some combination of the two.
As I've said before the very first example that Pittsburgh will point to is Hoffman's from 15/16, when as a 24 year old (turned 25 in Nov), received a 1x2m award after putting up 27g/48pts with 26g/45pts at ES. He played 79 games, but after having 6 pts in 25 games the year before that's probably one of the biggest jumps for a rookie.
Someone like Kreider won't get used due to A) his size and B) his hits (130+ vs 29).
For Sheary, I'd be surprised if his deal gives him more than 3.5m, and I'm expecting it to be a lot less - closer to 2.5m.
