Speculation: Sabres Roster Speculation - Pre-season 2023 Edition

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Weltschmerz

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Apr 22, 2007
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Question where I'm to dumb to google the answer:

When could Dahlin sign a new contract?
I remember sometimes new contracts can only be signed in the new year.
Also wondering about the Matthews situation, he has 1 year left like Dahlin, when could he sign, I see lots of leafs fans who think he must sign a new one before his NTC kicks in, is that even possible?
 

NotABadPeriod

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Question where I'm to dumb to google the answer:

When could Dahlin sign a new contract?
I remember sometimes new contracts can only be signed in the new year.
Also wondering about the Matthews situation, he has 1 year left like Dahlin, when could he sign, I see lots of leafs fans who think he must sign a new one before his NTC kicks in, is that even possible?
Players with deals expiring in 2024 can officially sign an extension on July 1. The exception is players on 1 year deals, who have to wait until January. So Dahlin can sign a new deal starting on 7/1.

In the case of Matthews, he can sign an extension on 7/1, but that's also the date his NMC kicks in. Basically, the team can get a handshake agreement in place before then, but the deal can't be made official until the new league year. So supposedly, the team could trade him freely before then if they don't see a new deal as being likely...but Matthews certainly isn't obligated to agree to a deal before then, unless he fears being traded somewhere he doesn't want to go (though again, he holds the card of going to UFA next year...)
 
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Weltschmerz

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Players with deals expiring in 2024 can officially sign an extension on July 1. The exception is players on 1 year deals, who have to wait until January. So Dahlin can sign a new deal starting on 7/1.

In the case of Matthews, he can sign an extension on 7/1, but that's also the date his NMC kicks in. Basically, the team can get a handshake agreement in place before then, but the deal can't be made official until the new league year. So supposedly, the team could trade him freely before then if they don't see a new deal as being likely...but Matthews certainly isn't obligated to agree to a deal before then, unless he fears being traded somewhere he doesn't want to go (though again, he holds the card of going to UFA next year...)
Big thx
 

Irie

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I‘ve seen Soucy mentioned a few times. I don‘t know much about him. Can someone give me a breakdown?

Having watched 90% of his Kraken games, I'll give it a shot.

He is big, skates really well for his size, came into camp a little slower than last season, but he is only 28 (July) and he does not have a lot of miles on his body with almost all of his NHL games(250) from the last 4 seasons. He moves the puck ok, very steady defensively, and mostly makes the safe/outlet pass and doesn't cough the puck up too often. Defensive awareness and positioning is average.

Hakstol juggled the lines all of last season, and with 8 NHL D on the roster, Soucy drew in 64 games, mostly playing the right side and rarely playing consecutive games with the same partner. He was no frills, solid D with a bit of offense, jumping into the play responsibly and led the team in +/-, and had solid chemistry with everyone he played with.

He has a physical edge to his game, but he isn't nasty unless provoked, but will drop the gloves to defend himself or his teammates, but not a heavyweight fighter. his height gave him an advantage against medium weight guys and he held his own.

This season he and Borgen were lights-out defensively through the first half of the season with some of the top metrics in the league, but were getting third pair minutes, but not being sheltered as Hakstol is not religious about matchups. Borgen was promoted to the 2nd pair, and Soucy played most of the rest of the year with Schultz. They were not nearly as effective, but not terrible.

I'd say his weakness is he does nothing really well, but he does everything at a passable level. Really good consistent play 5/4 guy, but maybe not someone you want if you are asking him to be great at one job in your top 4, which I think the Sabres are looking for in a partner for Power.
 

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Djp

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Question where I'm to dumb to google the answer:

When could Dahlin sign a new contract?
I remember sometimes new contracts can only be signed in the new year.
Also wondering about the Matthews situation, he has 1 year left like Dahlin, when could he sign, I see lots of leafs fans who think he must sign a new one before his NTC kicks in, is that even possible?

Mathews he can’t sign till July 1 when a NMC kicks in.

Dahlin can start to talk extension when he enters his final contract year On july 1
 
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Fjordy

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I'd say his weakness is he does nothing really well, but he does everything at a passable level. Really good consistent play 5/4 guy, but maybe not someone you want if you are asking him to be great at one job in your top 4, which I think the Sabres are looking for in a partner for Power.
If anything, I've always suggested Soucy as #5 to play third pair with Joki/Boosh, not top 4. I like Soucy and he would be the perfect addition to this team. He can play LD/RD, move up to second pair if necessary if there is an injury and I think he can handle it better than Joki/Boosh.
 

elchud

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This may be the last year to swoop in on some good value UFA contracts, all the good teams are tight to the cap and we are an up-and-coming team. As of now the cap will start escalating in the 2024 offseason.

Clifton 4x4
Hill 3x3
Soucy 3x3
Nosek 2x1.5

Bring back ZG and KO, Savoie on the 3rd line. VO traded at half-retention, UPL to a team looking for a young goalie. Address all the needs without assuming any long term or big money contracts.
 

joshjull

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Having watched 90% of his Kraken games, I'll give it a shot.

He is big, skates really well for his size, came into camp a little slower than last season, but he is only 28 (July) and he does not have a lot of miles on his body with almost all of his NHL games(250) from the last 4 seasons. He moves the puck ok, very steady defensively, and mostly makes the safe/outlet pass and doesn't cough the puck up too often. Defensive awareness and positioning is average.

Hakstol juggled the lines all of last season, and with 8 NHL D on the roster, Soucy drew in 64 games, mostly playing the right side and rarely playing consecutive games with the same partner. He was no frills, solid D with a bit of offense, jumping into the play responsibly and led the team in +/-, and had solid chemistry with everyone he played with.

He has a physical edge to his game, but he isn't nasty unless provoked, but will drop the gloves to defend himself or his teammates, but not a heavyweight fighter. his height gave him an advantage against medium weight guys and he held his own.

This season he and Borgen were lights-out defensively through the first half of the season with some of the top metrics in the league, but were getting third pair minutes, but not being sheltered as Hakstol is not religious about matchups. Borgen was promoted to the 2nd pair, and Soucy played most of the rest of the year with Schultz. They were not nearly as effective, but not terrible.

I'd say his weakness is he does nothing really well, but he does everything at a passable level. Really good consistent play 5/4 guy, but maybe not someone you want if you are asking him to be great at one job in your top 4, which I think the Sabres are looking for in a partner for Power.
Great breakdown. Thank you


Why do you think he was slower? Was he dealing with an injury?
 
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Fjordy

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joshjull

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Me too. I don’t understand why goalie with a year from UFA costs so much, when did this happen?
I didn’t see the trade proposals. But the general speculation on Helly‘s cost seems to be a combo of how good he is, likely demand and in some cases the hope he comes with an extension agreed to.
 

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I can't see Adams pulling the trigger on any of those deals.
1 - UPL, 2023 1st, Rosen
2 - 2023 1st, 2024 1st, Rosen
3 - 2023 1st, Savoie

All junk offers for Buffalo. Another team wants to pay that price, go ahead and let them.
 

Fjordy

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I didn’t see the trade proposals. But the general speculation on Helly‘s cost seems to be a combo of how good he is, likely demand and the hope he comes with an extension agreed to.
Yes, I understand, but at the moment he has one year left and it is not known whether he wants to sign a new contract and how much it will cost. I wouldn't pay much and would look elsewhere.
 
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Fjordy

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If Jarry gets 4.8M x 4Y, then it's better to just go with it than overpayment for Helle. Maybe Andersen, Hill, Varly or Raanta in UFA.
 

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I can’t tell if this post is you laying down a marker so you can rant all summer about Adams not getting rid of him (If that ends up being the case). Or if you’re really this terrible at evaluating dmen. I‘m leaning towards the first option. But the idea that Joker can’t play in the NHL at all is laughable and on par with the Adams nonsense you rant about.

Joker is an offensive dman who is best suited to playing with a defensive dman. He can also handle a lot of minutes because of his skating. Whether he should and under what circumstances is another matter.

He was paired with a kid who wasn’t a defensive dman and was expected to help him defensively. Not exactly playing to Joker‘s strengths. It wasn’t the best mix of skills between the two of them. Both would have been better served playing with a defensive dman. But until they acquired one who had the ability to handle those top 4 minutes, Power/Joker would be a thing. Thats not Joker’s fault.

Yet even with their issues as pairing, Power/Joker still managed have underlying stats about on par with the top pairing. They did it in similar deployments and playing a ton of minutes.

Power/Joker —-> CF%-49%//xGF%-46%//OSZ%-48%
Sammy/Dahlin -> CF%-49%//xGF%-49%//OZS%-49%

If Joker was truly as bad as you allege (unqualified to be in NHL). Then the Power/Joker pairing would have been absolutely annihilated.
This is the problem with Joker.

He puts up slightly below average stats. But the stats don't really capture that he's fine for 90% of a game and then completely switches his brain off the other 10%.

He's the kind of defensemen who looks perfectly average and you don't notice him much, until the ~2 shifts a game where he completely falls apart.

He's also terrible on the PK yet continues to get minutes there.

He's miscast badly as the #4 defensive D to partner with Power and as a PKer. He's much more of a 3rd pairing play driver/puck mover.

He's still super young and could improve.
 

Diaspora

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1 - UPL, 2023 1st, Rosen
2 - 2023 1st, 2024 1st, Rosen
3 - 2023 1st, Savoie

All junk offers for Buffalo. Another team wants to pay that price, go ahead and let them.
1 - Replace Rosen with Ostlund, add a B-guy from Roch, and DeMelo comes along with CH extended. I'm all over it.
 

TehDoak

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This may be the last year to swoop in on some good value UFA contracts, all the good teams are tight to the cap and we are an up-and-coming team. As of now the cap will start escalating in the 2024 offseason.

Clifton 4x4
Hill 3x3
Soucy 3x3
Nosek 2x1.5

Bring back ZG and KO, Savoie on the 3rd line. VO traded at half-retention, UPL to a team looking for a young goalie. Address all the needs without assuming any long term or big money contracts.

I'd do all those deals, I think they are a bit low, however. Hill will get a chance to start somewhere, I think the Husso deal is probably a good comp. Couple that with a strong playoff, 3x5 is probably closer to the market.

Nosek is low as well, his comp would be Nico Sturm at this point, signed a 3x2 deal.

Clifton will be interesting. The RHD market is deep but it doesn't have a top pairing guy. Dumba and Severson will probably get top billing, followed by Mayfield. Clifton is probably in a 3rd tier with Holl/Gudas/Hamonic. I actually think 4x4 might be a bit high, but it really depends on if teams see upside there or him as a bottom pair RHD.

Soucy is probably a little low, I think he'll get a bit higher AAV than that, closer to 3.5-4.

But, you are hitting on the major needs. I think the big problem is by adding two D with none going out, you have to thin the herd there a bit. My one suggestion would be looking at a middle six two way forward to help with the PK a bit. Also, is Jost a 13F in this scenario?
 

Fjordy

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I'd do all those deals, I think they are a bit low, however. Hill will get a chance to start somewhere, I think the Husso deal is probably a good comp. Couple that with a strong playoff, 3x5 is probably closer to the market.

Nosek is low as well, his comp would be Nico Sturm at this point, signed a 3x2 deal.

Clifton will be interesting. The RHD market is deep but it doesn't have a top pairing guy. Dumba and Severson will probably get top billing, followed by Mayfield. Clifton is probably in a 3rd tier with Holl/Gudas/Hamonic. I actually think 4x4 might be a bit high, but it really depends on if teams see upside there or him as a bottom pair RHD.

Soucy is probably a little low, I think he'll get a bit higher AAV than that, closer to 3.5-4.

But, you are hitting on the major needs. I think the big problem is by adding two D with none going out, you have to thin the herd there a bit. My one suggestion would be looking at a middle six two way forward to help with the PK a bit. Also, is Jost a 13F in this scenario?


Hill - 3,3M x 2Y

Clifton - 1,7M x 2Y

Soucy - 2,5M x 3Y
 
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Archie Lee

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1 - UPL, 2023 1st, Rosen
2 - 2023 1st, 2024 1st, Rosen
3 - 2023 1st, Savoie

All junk offers for Buffalo. Another team wants to pay that price, go ahead and let them.
I think they are all reasonable for an extended Hellebuyck. From everything that has happened in the Adams/Granato era and from everything Adams has said regarding the plan, I would put the chances of such a trade happening as next to zero.
 

Irie

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Great breakdown. Thank you


Why do you think he was slower? Was he dealing with an injury?
I don't think he was injured. I think he may have enjoyed his summer a little too much and just not been able to get back to the same level.

He's 6'5". I don't think it is too uncommon for guys that large to sometimes lose a step at 27-28. He is still a good skater, but in 2021-22 I would have called his skating excellent for his size.
 

Fjordy

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I mean, Adams has insisted there are no shortcuts.

This would literally be a shortcut. Hellebyuck is the guy you hope Levi would could become.
Yes, but with this money you can sign for example Jarry + Gavrikov/Dumba. I think we may have problems with the cap in future if he gives such contracts.
 
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