Speculation: Sabres Roster Speculation - Pre-season 2023 Edition

[Sabresfansince1980]

The Jokiharju dislike/hate goes too far when the result is him off the roster, and leaving two guys who played as little as possible during the most important stretch of the season. I didn't like any combo of guys played on the bottom pair at any time of the season. I really hoped for an add like Ryan Graves but I don't see how that move is made after the Stillman trade, given how KA seems to operate (getting a guy and sticking with him).

I prefer a Power-pair addition and Graves/Soucy with Joker on the 3rd pair...I just can't see KA making that many moves this summer (and trading Bryson AND Stillman/Lyubushkin). I don't mind keeping those last two as #7 and #8 guys (going 13-8) but again, I just don't see that happening.

 

[Fjordy]

The Jokiharju dislike/hate goes too far when the result is him off the roster, and leaving two guys who played as little as possible during the most important stretch of the season. I didn't like any combo of guys played on the bottom pair at any time of the season. I really hoped for an add like Ryan Graves but I don't see how that move is made after the Stillman trade, given how KA seems to operate (getting a guy and sticking with him).

I prefer a Power-pair addition and Graves/Soucy with Joker on the 3rd pair...I just can't see KA making that many moves this summer (and trading Bryson AND Stillman/Lyubushkin). I don't mind keeping those last two as #7 and #8 guys (going 13-8) but again, I just don't see that happening.

You do not pay defenseman for third pair 4,5-5 million a year. Graves played top 4 minutes and will be in demand. Soucy is expected to receive 3M x 3Y.

But we can also sign both, although I don't really believe Adams will be looking for two defenders.

 

[Sabresfansince1980]

You do not pay defenseman for third pair 4,5-5 million a year. Graves played top 4 minutes and will be in demand. Soucy is expected to receive 3M x 3Y.

But we can also sign both, although I don't really believe Adams will be looking for two defenders.

It's not ideal to pay a 3rd pair guy over 4 mil per, but we just paid Olofsson 4.5 mil to be a net negative for over 14 mins/gm. He should be gone next season and I'd like to think that salary cap could be used for an upgrade on the Dcorps. Cheaper option are ideal of course.

 

[Fjordy]

It's not ideal to pay a 3rd pair guy over 4 mil per, but we just paid Olofsson 4.5 mil to be a net negative for over 14 mins/gm. He should be gone next season and I'd like to think that salary cap could be used for an upgrade on the Dcorps. Cheaper option are ideal of course.

I'm just saying that Graves will probably get 4-5 million in the market for 4-5 years and he will play in the top 4. I agree that we have a place in the cap for this, although it will quickly disappear in the coming years when we need to extend our players. But if we sign Graves, it's for a top 4 game with Power or Dahlin. In the third pair, you can try to sign Soucy, which will probably not be cheap either, maybe such players as Kulikov or Mikkola.

 

[TehDoak]

I'm just saying that Graves will probably get 4-5 million in the market for 4-5 years and he will play in the top 4. I agree that we have a place in the cap for this, although it will quickly disappear in the coming years when we need to extend our players. But if we sign Graves, it's for a top 4 game with Power or Dahlin. In the third pair, you can try to sign Soucy, which will probably not be cheap either, maybe such players as Kulikov or Mikkola.

I like Graves....but I don't think that is an accurate reading of the market. I'm looking at comps....that is similar to the Manson/Chariot contracts, and that is a RD premium price for the role.

Orlov and Gavikov are going to get the big contracts. There are limited teams who need the LD 3/4 role. I think Graves will be the value option.

 

[DapperCam]

Joker has great skating, but I’m not sure how he’s an offensive defenseman when he was completely clueless in the offensive zone. He was better in transition, so maybe that helped his fancy stats. But once he had the puck on his stick in the o-zone, you knew a weak shot into the crest was coming, or a pass that would kill the play.

On defense he was pretty bad. So were a lot of our defenseman, but he isn’t the right partner for Power IMO.

I guess we’ll see what happens, and maybe he’d be better in a sheltered role, but I kind of hope he is part of a trade for an upgrade.

 

[Fjordy]

I like Graves....but I don't think that is an accurate reading of the market. I'm looking at comps....that is similar to the Manson/Chariot contracts, and that is a RD premium price for the role.

Orlov and Gavikov are going to get the big contracts. There are limited teams who need the LD 3/4 role. I think Graves will be the value option.

Well, these are not my calculations, there was news a few pages ago. I'm fine with Graves, even though he's not an RD.

 

[Fjordy]

Joker has great skating, but I’m not sure how he’s an offensive defenseman when he was completely clueless in the offensive zone. He was better in transition, so maybe that helped his fancy stats. But once he had the puck on his stick in the o-zone, you knew a weak shot into the crest was coming, or a pass that would kill the play.

On defense he was pretty bad. So were a lot of our defenseman, but he isn’t the right partner for Power IMO.

I guess we’ll see what happens, and maybe he’d be better in a sheltered role, but I kind of hope he is part of a trade for an upgrade.

I think he likes to move the puck and likes go to attack, but that doesn't mean he's very good at it. Either way, he can handle the puck, but he in pair needs a more defensive D.

 

[Ace]

His passes are turnovers, he doesn’t utilize his partner even though he’s gifted offensively because he has zero offensive IQ, and his point shots should be punishable by suspension.

No matter who you play him with. No matter who you play him against. No matter how much you shelter his minutes and assignments. It isn’t going to change that he is bad in the offensive zone and just as bad in the defensive zone. He wanders to the wrong side of the ice and loses his man constantly. When you watch a player play…see his instincts and see what he doesn’t understand…and your defense is talking about using him less…you already know. You just don’t want to admit it.

I don’t know how people are going to handle tough decisions when they struggle so mightily with the easy ones.

Let some other team play the fool on Jokiharju. We’ve been fooled enough.

 

[Fjordy]

His passes are turnovers, he doesn’t utilize his partner even though he’s gifted offensively because he has zero offensive IQ, and his point shots should be punishable by suspension.

No matter who you play him with. No matter who you play him against. No matter how much you shelter his minutes and assignments. It isn’t going to change that he is bad in the offensive zone and just as bad in the defensive zone. He wanders to the wrong side of the ice and loses his man constantly. When you watch a player play…see his instincts and see what he doesn’t understand…and your defense is talking about using him less…you already know. You just don’t want to admit it.

I don’t know how people are going to handle tough decisions when they struggle so mightily with the easy ones.

Let some other team play the fool on Jokiharju. We’ve been fooled enough.

I'm not a fan Jokiharju either, but it seems he was decent in the third pair with Scandella, but that was a long time ago with another coach. I just want to see him in a third pair with Scandella-type partner. He definitely shouldn't play top 4 minutes.

 

[Ace]

I'm not a fan Jokiharju either, but it seems he was decent in the third pair with Scandella, but that was a long time ago with another coach. I just want to see him in a third pair with Scandella-type partner. He definitely shouldn't play top 4 minutes.

The system has changed a lot since he saw modest success. Under RALPH. If we need to be the worst team in the league who plays a closed off version of hockey for Joker to be a passable at best third pair D…

Pass.

Hes had ample time in Granato’s system. It isn’t a fit. And it isn’t changing.

 

[Fjordy]

The system has changed a lot since he saw modest success. Under RALPH. If we need to be the worst team in the league who plays a closed off version of hockey for Joker to be a passable at best third pair D…

Pass.

Hes had ample time in Granato’s system. It isn’t a fit. And it isn’t changing.

Well, I'm open to trade him, but we also need depth defense. We can't stay with Boosh, Stillman and Bryson as #7.

 

[TheBarnIsElectric]

His passes are turnovers, he doesn’t utilize his partner even though he’s gifted offensively because he has zero offensive IQ, and his point shots should be punishable by suspension.

No matter who you play him with. No matter who you play him against. No matter how much you shelter his minutes and assignments. It isn’t going to change that he is bad in the offensive zone and just as bad in the defensive zone. He wanders to the wrong side of the ice and loses his man constantly. When you watch a player play…see his instincts and see what he doesn’t understand…and your defense is talking about using him less…you already know. You just don’t want to admit it.

I don’t know how people are going to handle tough decisions when they struggle so mightily with the easy ones.

Let some other team play the fool on Jokiharju. We’ve been fooled enough.

This is basically how I view Joki. He's a puck moving defenseman whose worst attribute, IMO, is his passing, especially under pressure. He's not big or physical, he's not super fast. He's "ok" defensively, but occasionally wanders and loses his man. Is he acceptable as a 3rd pair you don't ask much of, ok. But I take Boosh over him every day of the week, Stillman as well. And I think those are guys that could also be upgraded, BTW.

I'm not going to riot if Joki is still here next year in a lesser role, but if it were up to me, I'm looking to replace him in the lineup with someone much better and I'm not re-signing him when his contract is up. If no one wants him, he walks.

 

[Diaspora]

You do not pay defenseman for third pair 4,5-5 million a year. Graves played top 4 minutes and will be in demand. Soucy is expected to receive 3M x 3Y.

But we can also sign both, although I don't really believe Adams will be looking for two defenders.

I think a contender (isn't that the next yardstick?) needs to have one top-4 quality defenseman on the third pair to win those minutes, to reduce stress on the top pairs, and to play up the lineup when injuries happen.

If that is the yardstick, then you follow up:

1. Is Joki competent in that role?
2. Are we certain?
3. If we have certainty, the path is clear.
4. If we don't, then we pick up one over the summer and see what happens. We'll know where we need to go by the TDL.

Cap management is becoming more important, but I think we still have a lot of leeway right now to make some big moves if we can manage to keep control of term-length and conditions.

 

[Djp]

which one of these 3 assets would you be willing to trade to get a key piece back this summer? Personally I wouldn't trade any of the three.
- Savoie
- Kulich
- 13th OA pick (2023)

it’s a very small list. Those are untouchable.lthe y are not getting traded for 25+ players

one could be Clarke from LA

 

[joshjull]

I 100% agree that if joker is still on the team, he’s playing. Just my prediction is if they acquire a top 4 guy, they are moving joker out (who will have value), as I don’t think he’s what they are looking for in a depth role. Though, as @Chainshot mentioned, his ability to move up would be nice

I could definitely see Joker moved out as part of the trade for that top 4 dman. But I don‘t see him getting moved outside of that.

I know you feel they want physical guys on the bottom pair. But the bigger priority is a third pairing that actually plays. Otherwise we’re gonna be riding the top 4 hard again. The benefit Joker brings isn’t just that he can play higher. Its that he can be that 3rd pairing anchor getting 15 or so mins. None pf the other depth dmen are trusted with thsoe types of minute, especially when paired together.

I edited the post you quoted to give better context to what I was trying to say. You need guys who can be trusted with 15 minutes (or at least 14+mins) on that bottom pair to mitigate the 5v5 ice time distribution. If we move on from Joker then we need to add another dman who can do the two things he can.

If were looking to move on from Joker after the top 4 guy is added. That means we’d have to be looking for 2 dmen this offseason, not just the top 4 upgrade.

 

[TehDoak]

Re: Jokijarju

There IS still upside there, but the question is, is that a fit for what we need? We need to upgrade our defensive zone play. Is Joker helping or hurting that? If we found a more defensive d-man, are we better with Lybushkin as our 5D or with Joker in that role? So to me, his fit is really dependent on who we add. I'm not opposed to keeping him, but if we add a more puck moving d-man (like Adams was looking at in Chycrun), then I don't see his fit moving forward. In my ideal world, I'd love to see us add a D-man, sign Graves, buyout Lybushkin/Byrson and run with a Graves-Joker bottom pair, two guys who can play up the lineup a bit and take on more TOI than a typical bottom pair. That kind of revamp doesn't appear to be in the cards, however.

 

[Dubi Doo]

I just don’t think Joker is what the Sabres are looking in a bottom pairing defensmen after the acquisitions of Stillman and Boosh. They seem to want physical guys in that role.

Joker is obviously an NHLer, saying otherwise is goofy. But not sure he’d fit on our bottom pairing.

Someone would also have to play their offside if Joker was on the third pair with Lyubushkin. I know that doesn't seem to worry Granato too much, but still could be a reason they move on from Joki and use him as trade bait.

 

[Fjordy]

Re: Jokijarju

There IS still upside there, but the question is, is that a fit for what we need? We need to upgrade our defensive zone play. Is Joker helping or hurting that? If we found a more defensive d-man, are we better with Lybushkin as our 5D or with Joker in that role? So to me, his fit is really dependent on who we add. I'm not opposed to keeping him, but if we add a more puck moving d-man (like Adams was looking at in Chycrun), then I don't see his fit moving forward. In my ideal world, I'd love to see us add a D-man, sign Graves, buyout Lybushkin/Byrson and run with a Graves-Joker bottom pair, two guys who can play up the lineup a bit and take on more TOI than a typical bottom pair. That kind of revamp doesn't appear to be in the cards, however.

Graves will be too expensive for that, and he is unlikely to agree to play minutes of the third pair. He will get money, term and a top 4 role on another team.

maybe

Soucy
Mikkola
Kulikov

 

[TehDoak]

Graves will be too expensive for that, and he is unlikely to agree to play minutes of the third pair. He will get money, term and a top 4 role on another team.

maybe

Soucy
Mikkola
Kulikov

It really depends on who we get to fill that 4 role. No one is TOO expensive for us right now, no matter what the role. We have the flexibility to do whatever we want still. We can overpay for the right fit.

 

[Fjordy]

It really depends on who we get to fill that 4 role. No one is TOO expensive for us right now, no matter what the role. We have the flexibility to do whatever we want still. We can overpay for the right fit.

I mean why is Graves doing this? We will also need a cap soon to extend Dahlin, Power, Mitts and our other players. If you want to sign Graves, it's for top 4, not for third pair.

 

[joshjull]

Joker has great skating, but I’m not sure how he’s an offensive defenseman when he was completely clueless in the offensive zone. He was better in transition, so maybe that helped his fancy stats. But once he had the puck on his stick in the o-zone, you knew a weak shot into the crest was coming, or a pass that would kill the play.

I think you’re right that he’s better described as a transition dman. As for the fancy stats, I brought them up to show he did ok for a guy playing over his head. It wasn’t to suggest he should be in the top 4. He shouldn’t.

On defense he was pretty bad. So were a lot of our defenseman, but he isn’t the right partner for Power IMO.

I don’t think anyone is suggesting he should be paired with Power. I‘m certainly not.

I guess we’ll see what happens, and maybe he’d be better in a sheltered role but I kind of hope he is part of a trade for an upgrade.

He had individual underlying numbers this year of; CF%-51%//xGF%-49%. I think it’s fair to assume those numbers would improve playing fewer and easier minutes. Which in turn should lead to better counting numbers as well.

 

[joshjull]

I‘ve seen Soucy mentioned a few times. I don‘t know much about him. Can someone give me a breakdown?

 

[TehDoak]

I mean why is Graves doing this? We will also need a cap soon to extend Dahlin, Power, Mitts and our other players. If you want to sign Graves, it's for top 4, not for third pair.

Really depends on his market. IF we solve top 4 RD via trade first, we might be able to come in and show interest and money while other teams are bidding for Garvikov and Orlov.

 

[Fjordy]

Really depends on his market. IF we solve top 4 RD via trade first, we might be able to come in and show interest and money while other teams are bidding for Garvikov and Orlov.

But there are more teams that will need a top 4 defenseman. Still looks doubtful to me.