Speculation: Sabres Roster Speculation - Pre-season 2023 Edition

[joshjull]

I’ve got to admit I’m really excited for training camp in the fall.

The forward battle, even without ANY additions will be intense

Skinner Thompson Tuch
Peterka Cozens Quinn
Mittelstadt Krebs Greenway

Are all roster locks.


Then you potentially have
Jost
Girgensons and/or Okposo
Kulich
Savoie
Rosèn
Rousek
Cederqvist
Weissbach
Biro

Potentially 8-9 guys fighting for 3 spots.
This is why I see only one of Girgensons/Okposo returning (my bet is Okposo; he’s the captain and will sign 1yr deals from here on out, Girgensons will want term and we can’t afford to use that spot on him in the years going forward).

I also do not see Jost returning. They might qualify him and then send him as part of a trade somewhere. He showed the capability to be a solid bottom-6 forward and he definitely still has some offensive upside, but he’s not what they need in that spot.

So you realistically have 8 guys fighting for 4 spots (one would be 13th forward).

I do believe they’ll add one UFA forward to the mix. Someone that gives them a bit more… pugnacity or can work the PK. Regardless, it’s gonna be fun to see who can make this squad and no one will have their role handed to them.

It’s definitely going to be a lot of fun watching the forward situation play out. It can go a bunch of different ways.

 

[Ehran]

We, as fans, are going to have to get used to seeing good players not make this team.

It's been a long, long time since that was true.

 

[Chainshot]

We, as fans, are going to have to get used to seeing good players not make this team.

It's been a long, long time since that was true.

Or seeing prospect players the Sabres trade go on to be good elsewhere.

 

[Zman5778]

Or seeing prospect players the Sabres trade go on to be good elsewhere.

I mean.....we're already pretty damned used to that.

 

[Ace]

I mean.....we're already pretty damned used to that.

They all turned out to be good trades too. Given where we were or, more accurately, not going anytime soon…

We watched RoR win a cup and playoff MVP. He wasn’t going to do that here. I’ll take Tage Thompson and his miracle contract.

we’re watching Eichel in the conference finals. He couldn’t stay and didn’t want to. Tuch, Ostlund, Krebs and Greenway works for me. Hell…Tuch works for me Given Jack’s injury situation at the time.

we’re watching Reinhart in the conference finals. He was jerked around by Botterill when he wanted a long term deal and we were left with 1 RFA year and a player that wouldn’t sign. Kulich and Levi? Yes, please.

I mean…I wish they’d have gotten more than a 3rd for Montour. But can’t win ‘em all. Lose the smallest one, I say,

…

Now I’d really like to see some of that trade stuff work in reverse. It’s time to acquire a big piece another team has to watch produce and win big games. While being fine with it because their future looks bright.

 

[Chainshot]

I mean.....we're already pretty damned used to that.

In terms of prospects, not so much.

 

[Dingo44]

 

[Irie]

Or seeing prospect players the Sabres trade go on to be good elsewhere.

That is ok, as long as they are moved for good value

 

[joshjull]

I’m kind of hoping Bryson and Joker are completely gone.

Dahlin - Samuelsson
Power - X
X - Lyubushkin
Stillman

I’m hoping Power’s partner is a stable vet. Big point totals not necessary. Gudas maybe? I’m hoping the bottom pair player is just a legit NHLer.

Why? Bryson as the #8 in Rochester is good depth and Joker as the #5 dman is great depth.

 

[Ace]

Joker as #7 isn’t good depth. He can’t play with Dahlin or Power…that’s just proven at this point. Now I want him on a third pair so he can replace Bryson as the easiest person to play against on the team? That’s the break Power and Dahlin get? Watching Joker piss away goals? Pass.

He’s right hand shot. He’s young. He’s terrible.

Enough GMs are dumb enough to care about the first two things to discount the one that actually matters. Get him gone.

He needs a contract after this year. Is the plan to keep him and pretend he’s not a disaster forever? Or to move him when he has…less value?

 

[MOGlLNY]

Joker as #7 isn’t good depth. He can’t play with Dahlin or Power…that’s just proven at this point. Now I want him on a third pair so he can replace Bryson as the easiest person to play against on the team? That’s the break Power and Dahlin get? Watching Joker piss away goals? Pass.

He’s right hand shot. He’s young. He’s terrible.

Enough GMs are dumb enough to care about the first two things to discount the one that actually matters. Get him gone.

He needs a contract after this year. Is the plan to keep him and pretend he’s not a disaster forever? Or to move him when he has…less value?

We’ll see what happens I wouldn’t mind moving on from him. But I also don’t have a problem seeing what he has in a sheltered role. Boosh seems to have our right side bottom pairing and does a decent job but he’s also a free agent after next year.

If you can get value in a trade for him do it. But if you can’t find anything that helps us today in exchange for him I think it’s worth holding on and seeing if he can perform on the bottom pairing

 

[joshjull]

Joker as #7 isn’t good depth. He can’t play with Dahlin or Power…that’s just proven at this point. Now I want him on a third pair so he can replace Bryson as the easiest person to play against on the team? That’s the break Power and Dahlin get? Watching Joker piss away goals? Pass.

He’s right hand shot. He’s young. He’s terrible.

Enough GMs are dumb enough to care about the first two things to discount the one that actually matters. Get him gone.

He needs a contract after this year. Is the plan to keep him and pretend he’s not a disaster forever? Or to move him when he has…less value?

I can’t tell if this post is you laying down a marker so you can rant all summer about Adams not getting rid of him (If that ends up being the case). Or if you’re really this terrible at evaluating dmen. I‘m leaning towards the first option. But the idea that Joker can’t play in the NHL at all is laughable and on par with the Adams nonsense you rant about.

Joker is an offensive dman who is best suited to playing with a defensive dman. He can also handle a lot of minutes because of his skating. Whether he should and under what circumstances is another matter.

He was paired with a kid who wasn’t a defensive dman and was expected to help him defensively. Not exactly playing to Joker‘s strengths. It wasn’t the best mix of skills between the two of them. Both would have been better served playing with a defensive dman. But until they acquired one who had the ability to handle those top 4 minutes, Power/Joker would be a thing. Thats not Joker’s fault.

Yet even with their issues as pairing, Power/Joker still managed have underlying stats about on par with the top pairing. They did it in similar deployments and playing a ton of minutes.

Power/Joker —-> CF%-49%//xGF%-46%//OSZ%-48%
Sammy/Dahlin -> CF%-49%//xGF%-49%//OZS%-49%

If Joker was truly as bad as you allege (unqualified to be in NHL). Then the Power/Joker pairing would have been absolutely annihilated.

 

[Push Dr Tracksuit]

I would hate to trade #13 and see it turn into a 80 point forward

It’s a magic bean. What you’re afraid of is one of the least likely possibilities for the pick.

 

[Dirty Dog]

I just don’t think Joker is what the Sabres are looking in a bottom pairing defensmen after the acquisitions of Stillman and Boosh. They seem to want physical guys in that role.

Joker is obviously an NHLer, saying otherwise is goofy. But not sure he’d fit on our bottom pairing

 

[Push Dr Tracksuit]

what if we revised that list by adding Ostlund & Rosen. Rank this 5 assets in order of must keep to willing to trade.
1. Kulich
2. Savoie
3. 13th OA
4. Ostlund
5. Rosen

Kulich and Savoie as the primary piece in a trade for 1st line/1st pairing only.

Rosen, Ostlund, 13th for any roster improvement including for unique depth pieces.

Savoie, ostlund, 13oa for Keller and Crouse. Let’s party.

 

[KrakenSabresMike]

Kulich and Savoie as the primary piece in a trade for 1st line/1st pairing only.

Rosen, Ostlund, 13th for any roster improvement including for unique depth pieces.

Savoie, ostlund, 13oa for Keller and Crouse. Let’s party.

No way / way over pay and doesn’t solve really any of buffalos needs!

 

[TehDoak]

I can’t tell if this post is you laying down a marker so you can rant all summer about Adams not getting rid of him (If thats the case). Or if you’re really this terrible at evaluating dmen. I‘m leaning towards the first option. But the idea that Joker can’t play in the NHL at all is laughable and on par with the Adams nonsense you rant about.

Joker is an offensive dman and is best suited to playing with a defensive dman. He can also handle a lot of minutes because of his skating. Whether he should and under what circumstances is another matter.

He was paired with a kid who wasn’t a defensive dman and was expected to help him defensively. Not exactly playing to Joker‘s strengths. It wasn’t the best mix of skills between the two of them. Both would have been better served playing with a defensive dman. But until they acquired one who had the ability to handle those top 4 minutes, Power/Joker would be a thing. Thats not Joker’s fault.

Yet even with their issues as pairing, Power/Joker still managed have underlying stats about on par with the top pairing. They did it in similar deployments and playing a ton of minutes.

Power/Joker —-> CF%-49%//xGF%-46%//OSZ%-48%
Sammy/Dahlin -> CF%-49%//xGF%-49%//OZS%-49%

If Joker was truly as bad as you allege (unqualified to be in NHL). Then the Power/Joker pairing would have been absolutely annihilated.

Now show us the QoC

 

[joshjull]

I just don’t think Joker is what the Sabres are looking in a bottom pairing defensmen after the acquisitions of Stillman and Boosh. They seem to want physical guys in that role.

Joker is obviously an NHLer, saying otherwise is goofy. But not sure he’d fit on our bottom pairing

I don’t know if they want a physical bottom pairing or not. But I do know the coaching staff had zero faith in the Stillman/Boosh pairing at 5v5 during our last push for a playoff spot. Those 7gms from Levi’s first start until the loss to the Devils. Boosh averaged 9mins/Stillman less and Joker was averaging 20+mins a night.

I can’t imagine the dman they were giving 20+mins during that stretch losing out to either Boosh/Stillman for a bottom pairing spot.

 

[joshjull]

The 5v5 atoi for our returning dmen.

The top 4
Power —> 19:45 (2nd most in NHL)
Dahlin —> 19:36 (5th)
Sammy -> 18:39 (17th)
Joker —-> 18:15 (28th)

The returning depth dmen
Bryson —> 13:19
Boosh —-> 12:43
Stillman -> 11:25

If Joker is still here and we add a replacement for him in the top 4. I don’t see how he isn’t a lock for a bottom pairing spot. The coaches don‘t trust any of the other depth guys with much ice time. Certainly not as pairings.

EDIT: I should add that good bottom pairing dmen get roughly 15mins atoi at 5v5. At the every least you’d bottom pairing dmen averaging 14+mins to lighten the burden on your top 4. The 12:43 and 11:25 from Boosh+Stillman isn’t going to cut it.


EDIT: Stillman might, and I stress might, be an exception. Since Granato said he feels he can get more out of him. Maybe thats the case with a training camp under his belt and pairing him with a partner Granato trusts, like Joker. Which could lead to more ice time for him.

 

[Chainshot]

Now show us the QoC

If you spring for the Evolving Pro subscription, sure.

In the meantime, the thing that has been pointed out to me time and again about QoC is that the variation over a full season is marginal with some old data:

Gauging the Relevance of Quality of Competition on a Player’s Stats – Toronto Maple Leafs’ D Edition

In my last post, I detailed how there is a trend of people placing too much importance on the context behind a player’s statistics, even when such contextual numbers do not at all explain the…

hockey-graphs.com

The relationship between competition and observed results is real and it’s spectacular

Abstract There has been much work over the years looking at the impact of competition on player performance in the NHL. Prompted by Garret Hohl’s recent look at the topic, I wanted to look at…

hockey-graphs.com

We know that the Power-Jokiharju pair wasn't completely sheltered. We know that the folks most sheltered among regulars were Clague and then Stillman based purely on TOI.

 

[Chainshot]

The 5v5 atoi for our returning dmen.

The top 4
Power —> 19:45
Dahlin —> 19:36
Sammy -> 18:39
Joker —-> 18:15

The returning depth dmen
Bryson —> 13:19
Boosh —-> 12:43
Stillman -> 11:25

If Joker is still here and we add a replacement for him in the top 4. I don’t see how he isn’t a lock for a bottom pairing spot. The coaches don‘t trust any of the other depth guys with much ice time.

Agreed.

I would also add that getting a different player to compliment Power does not solve the issue of what to do when anyone in that top 4 is out if Jokiharju is gone. Jokiharju as a third pairing guy gives them someone they do trust who can soak the minutes that an injury makes available. Moving Jokiharju means also finding someone else they can trust to be in that situation when an injury happens OR rolling things like they did last year and shoveling ice time to whoever is healthy.

 

[Dirty Dog]

The 5v5 atoi for our returning dmen.

The top 4
Power —> 19:45
Dahlin —> 19:36
Sammy -> 18:39
Joker —-> 18:15

The returning depth dmen
Bryson —> 13:19
Boosh —-> 12:43
Stillman -> 11:25

If Joker is still here and we add a replacement for him in the top 4. I don’t see how he isn’t a lock for a bottom pairing spot. The coaches don‘t trust any of the other depth guys with much ice time. Certainly not as pairings.


EDIT: Stillman might, and I stress might, be an exception. Since Granato said he feels he can get more out of him. Maybe thats the case with a training camp under his belt and pairing him with a partner Granato trusts, like Joker. Which could lead to more ice time for him.

I 100% agree that if joker is still on the team, he’s playing. Just my prediction is if they acquire a top 4 guy, they are moving joker out (who will have value), as I don’t think he’s what they are looking for in a depth role. Though, as @Chainshot mentioned, his ability to move up would be nice

 

[Chainshot]

I 100% agree that if joker is still on the team, he’s playing. Just my prediction is if they acquire a top 4 guy, they are moving joker out (who will have value), as I don’t think he’s what they are looking for in a depth role. Though, as @Chainshot mentioned, his ability to move up would be nice

If they move him - they might - they would need two guys. They can't look at this season and think giving Power/Dahlin/(other) 25-ish minutes a night is a good thing when we look at how they wore down toward the end of the year. Also, it's where Johnson is screwing himself because if he were to sign, and then show out as remotely competent, he'd be in control of being that guy absorbing that TOI when it happens.

One defenseman to make a better pair with Power is ideal and allows them to spread the TOI a bit more evenly. I think they like having some defense with more bite in their game, which is where both Boosh and Stillman fit in (and Fitz before them) but they probably would love bite AND the ability to have someone play a solid 20 minutes and PK (which Stillman did not do in his time in town).

 

[Fjordy]

I was fine if they traded Joki and in addition to the top 4 D sign another guy like Soucy who can play both LD and RD and move up to second pair if necessary. And so, in general, they probably don’t need to trade Joki just like that now. The more decent depth in defense, the better.

Kulich and Savoie as the primary piece in a trade for 1st line/1st pairing only.

Rosen, Ostlund, 13th for any roster improvement including for unique depth pieces.

Savoie, ostlund, 13oa for Keller and Crouse. Let’s party.

NO f***ING WAY

 

[alehman42]

I was fine if they traded Joki and in addition to the top 4 D sign another guy like Soucy who can play both LD and RD and move up to second pair if necessary. And so, in general, they probably don’t need to trade Joki just like that now. The more decent depth in defense, the better.


NO f***ING WAY

Aww...c'mon @Fjordy, we all know you're multi-lingual. You don't need to avoid the nanny filter with asterisks; just drop the profanity in a different language so we can all get a vocabulary lesson

But also: I agree with you. Crouse would be a good pickup, but not at that price. Keller...he's probably going to be the building block for the Salt Lake Lochmonsters (or whatever they call themselves), and won't be available for a reasonable price either.