Speculation: Sabres Roster Speculation - Pre-season 2023 Edition

[Sabresfansince1980]

I think they are all reasonable for an extended Hellebuyck. From everything that has happened in the Adams/Granato era and from everything Adams has said regarding the plan, I would put the chances of such a trade happening as next to zero.

Yes, but with this money you can sign for example Jarry + Gavrikov/Dumba. I think we may have problems with the cap in future if he gives such contracts.

Helley will cost around 8 mil per on an extension, and I don't want to pay ANY goalie that much...not even Levi or UPL if they reach a top 5 level in the league. Maybe the cap goes up enough in a few years but for now I don't like that idea.

 

[tsujimoto74]

1 - UPL, 2023 1st, Rosen
2 - 2023 1st, 2024 1st, Rosen
3 - 2023 1st, Savoie

All junk offers for Buffalo. Another team wants to pay that price, go ahead and let them.

Yeah, you might be able to talk me into the 2023 1st if Hellbuyck came with an extension. Under no circumstances would I trade Savoie for him, nor would I deal a top prospect in addition to the 1st. That's just so, so far out of whack with the recent trade market for goalies. It strikes me as wholly unrealistic to imagine that any team would pay anything close to that.

E: The only goalie in recent memory who returned anything half-way close to that was a much younger Cory Schnider who came with more term. And that trade looked god-awful in hindsight for the team that made it.

 

[Beerz]

I can't see Adams giving him the 5+ year @ $8.5M+ AAV that it would take to sign an extension with Levi here.

I don't see why not. You let Levi develop in the A this year... 2 years as backup to Helly .. 1 year having Helly backup Levi and deal Helly in his final year or 2

 

[TageGod]

I don't see why not. You let Levi develop in the A this year... 2 years as backup to Helly .. 1 year having Helly backup Levi and deal Helly in his final year or 2

He will want to cash in. 6+ year deal for Conner no doubt. It won't work for buffalo.

 

[Beerz]

2 years 10 mill AAV for Helly

 

[Jim Bob]

2 years 10 mill AAV for Helly

Good luck getting him to take a short term deal to play behind a bad defensive team.

I don't see why not. You let Levi develop in the A this year... 2 years as backup to Helly .. 1 year having Helly backup Levi and deal Helly in his final year or 2

They are not going to pay him $8.5M+ to be Levi's backup for 2 or 3 years.

 

[RefsIdeas]

Now show us the QoC

I just pulled the QoC and interestingly enough - Sammy/Dahlin wasn't that much higher than Power/Joker (The former has about 10-20% higher QoC).

Interestingly enough, Bryson/Boosh had very low QoC, with Bryson receiving more favorable deployments. God, I just don't want to Bryson in a Sabres uni ever again.

 

[Jim Bob]

Every NHL Team's Biggest Fear This Offseason

Living a life without fear is something everyone would love to accomplish. Just think of what it would be like to never freeze up in a crucial moment or not…

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Buffalo Sabres – Goaltending
The Sabres will be everyone's "it" team next season and the plan seems clear for them to accomplish that: Find consistent goaltending. They love rookie Devon Levi, but he's only played seven NHL games. The 21-year-old could be really good, but is that something GM Kevyn Adams is willing to wager immediately for next season? Buffalo has missed the playoffs each season since 2011 and they missed out by two points this season. They have to get there next season and finding good goaltending will allay most of the worries. But finding good goaltending isn't exactly easy and might require a trade to make it happen.

 

[TehDoak]

Yes, but with this money you can sign for example Jarry + Gavrikov/Dumba. I think we may have problems with the cap in future if he gives such contracts.

Thank You - CapFriendly - NHL Salary Caps

Thank you for the amazing 9 years

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I mean, I think you can game it out a bit. Assuming Hellebuyck costs you 9-10M. Let's just assume 10M per. So, 10M x 5-7 years.

I went ahead and signed Severson at 6x6 to see how that worked long term. I also added some bottom 6 forwards. (Girgsons/Accari/Appleton)

2024: 28M in space with 13 bodies under contract. Assuming 10M for Dahlin. 6M for Power on a bridge. Krebs/Mittelstadt as RFAs with 12M or so left to play with. That is doable, especially if you can swap in a ELC forward for one of Mittelstadt or Krebs at that point.

If you assume a moderately rising cap (let's say 2M a year now since the COVID escrow is gone), it is really doable. If Levi comes on really strong and Hellebuyck is showing signs of slowing down, you likely can still move him unless he falls off the face of the earth.

I mean, if you go after Hellebuyck and sign him this summer, you pretty much have to go all in on fixing the defense too. The time for Half measures would be over. He's not signing an extension here to wait for the team to develop.

We can absolutely sign him and sign a d-man this summer and be fine long term. You just lose some flexibility down the road and you have to start playing the forward shuffle.

 

[Diaspora]

Thank You - CapFriendly - NHL Salary Caps

Thank you for the amazing 9 years

www.capfriendly.com

I mean, I think you can game it out a bit. Assuming Hellebuyck costs you 9-10M. Let's just assume 10M per. So, 10M x 5-7 years.

I went ahead and signed Severson at 6x6 to see how that worked long term. I also added some bottom 6 forwards. (Girgsons/Accari/Appleton)

2024: 28M in space with 13 bodies under contract. Assuming 10M for Dahlin. 6M for Power on a bridge. Krebs/Mittelstadt as RFAs with 12M or so left to play with. That is doable, especially if you can swap in a ELC forward for one of Mittelstadt or Krebs at that point.

If you assume a moderately rising cap (let's say 2M a year now since the COVID escrow is gone), it is really doable. If Levi comes on really strong and Hellebuyck is showing signs of slowing down, you likely can still move him unless he falls off the face of the earth.

I mean, if you go after Hellebuyck and sign him this summer, you pretty much have to go all in on fixing the defense too. The time for Half measures would be over. He's not signing an extension here to wait for the team to develop.

We can absolutely sign him and sign a d-man this summer and be fine long term. You just lose some flexibility down the road and you have to start playing the forward shuffle.

I think this is a good take. I also think he comes in at 5x8 or 6x8. The issue will be not to box yourself in with stringent NTC/NMC provisions and don't backload salary/bonuses.

 

[Duddy]

If you trade for Helle you re-sign him for 3-4 years for good money, have someone to mentor Levi and get maybe the best goalie tandem in the league. If Levi is the real deal, you trade Helle after year 2 and recoup some assets.

 

[Ace]

Why would he sign for 3-4 years? He’s one of the top handful of goalies in the world signing his last big contract. He’s getting term and dollars that we aren’t matching

 

[Fjordy]

Thank You - CapFriendly - NHL Salary Caps

Thank you for the amazing 9 years

www.capfriendly.com

I mean, I think you can game it out a bit. Assuming Hellebuyck costs you 9-10M. Let's just assume 10M per. So, 10M x 5-7 years.

I went ahead and signed Severson at 6x6 to see how that worked long term. I also added some bottom 6 forwards. (Girgsons/Accari/Appleton)

2024: 28M in space with 13 bodies under contract. Assuming 10M for Dahlin. 6M for Power on a bridge. Krebs/Mittelstadt as RFAs with 12M or so left to play with. That is doable, especially if you can swap in a ELC forward for one of Mittelstadt or Krebs at that point.

If you assume a moderately rising cap (let's say 2M a year now since the COVID escrow is gone), it is really doable. If Levi comes on really strong and Hellebuyck is showing signs of slowing down, you likely can still move him unless he falls off the face of the earth.

I mean, if you go after Hellebuyck and sign him this summer, you pretty much have to go all in on fixing the defense too. The time for Half measures would be over. He's not signing an extension here to wait for the team to develop.

We can absolutely sign him and sign a d-man this summer and be fine long term. You just lose some flexibility down the road and you have to start playing the forward shuffle.

That's the problem, flexibility. If Mitts scores 60 points, you will have to pay him, same with Quinn and Peterka. If we want good depth defense, you have to pay. You wanted Graves in the third pair with a 5M contract for 5 years, pay.

I like Helle, he's a great goalie, but there are a lot of variables, from cost to contract extensions. Imagine that you pay him 10 million a year, and he fails in Buffalo because he does not fit the Granato system, this will be a disaster.

Why would he sign for 3-4 years? He’s one of the top handful of goalies in the world signing his last big contract. He’s getting term and dollars that we aren’t matching

Yeap, this will be Bob's contract.

 

[Diaspora]

After teams getting burned with long-term goalies (Price, Gibson, Markstrom, Demko, Bob -- yeah, I know he's putting the lie to it, but you would have agreed four weeks ago), I have a hard time believing that any team aspiring to be relevant for more than a year or two will be offering more than a six-year term.

I could be wrong, but I think we could be competitive with a five-year offer. I'd want to talk with him and see what he's looking for before I pulled the trigger.

 

[Weltschmerz]

Lol there are people that want to pay Helle 10m per? Dynasty-Helle? The guy that won 1 playoff round since their big run 2018?

 

[Diaspora]

Oh. And if Florida wins the Cup this year, that Bob contract won't look so bad.

 

[Ace]

After teams getting burned with long-term goalies (Price, Gibson, Markstrom, Demko, Bob -- yeah, I know he's putting the lie to it, but you would have agreed four weeks ago), I have a hard time believing that any team aspiring to be relevant for more than a year or two will be offering more than a six-year term.

I could be wrong, but I think we could be competitive with a five-year offer. I'd want to talk with him and see what he's looking for before I pulled the trigger.

GMs know they are unlikely to see the end of the contract they sign. Not one of those GMs that signed those deals is still in that job. They care about winning now and that’s it. Desperate GMs do stuff…repeatedly. As you pointed out yourself.

 

[Push Dr Tracksuit]

Lol there are people that want to pay Helle 10m per? Dynasty-Helle? The guy that won 1 playoff round since their big run 2018?

Im glad that the analytics community is finally adding “playoff round wins since the last time they won playoff rounds” as a metric. Makes it so much easier to sort top talent.

As someone mentioned in the next 2 drafts our 1st round selections (if they aren't traded) better be defenseman. KA needs to replenish our pipeline with defenseman!

I’d like to just draft D. I’d rather draft hits. They seem to be pretty decent at doing that.

 

[Diaspora]

GMs know they are unlikely to see the end of the contract they sign. Not one of those GMs that signed those deals is still in that job. They care about winning now and that’s it. Desperate GMs do stuff…repeatedly. As you pointed out yourself.

Hm.

Well, I won't argue about desperate GMs. And KA has no reason to be desperate, unless people are calling for his job if he doesn't make the playoffs this year, or something.

 

[Push Dr Tracksuit]

Oh. And if Florida wins the Cup this year, that Bob contract won't look so bad.

Because team success is always the final metric.

 

[Duddy]

True, GMs never learn, some stupid team will give him a 6-7 year big money contract.

 

[Push Dr Tracksuit]

I mean, Adams has insisted there are no shortcuts.

This would literally be a shortcut. Hellebyuck is the guy you hope Levi would could become.

I don’t think this the correct use of shortcut. I think you’re using it like KA won’t bring in developed players while the young talent is still developing. In this case by saying it’s a shortcut to not wait for Levi to be developed into the starter. But I’d say the key difference between how you are using shortcut and how KA uses it is that KA isn’t looking for a move that if it fails it sets back the schedule.

The plan is to develop a starting goalie internally. Levi + UPL is developing a starter internally. I think you’re saying that KA would look at CH + Levi as “instead of waiting for Levi to develop we are just going to acquire a finished product” and that’s a shortcut, where I think KA would look at CH + Levi as “we are still developing a goalie internally, but we think Levi is the guy we are developing and the other guy is now someone reliable.”

CH is a question of cap and fit, not timelines and shortcuts.

 

[TehDoak]

That's the problem, flexibility. If Mitts scores 60 points, you will have to pay him, same with Quinn and Peterka. If we want good depth defense, you have to pay. You wanted Graves in the third pair with a 5M contract for 5 years, pay.

Right, if you add a top 3 goalie, you aren't going to overpay a bottom pair d-man. It's making choices.

Also do we have to pay Mitts? We are dabbling in hypotheticals at this point. We have 6 1st and 2nd round forwards in the last two years. None of whom have burned their 1st year of their ELC yet. Wouldn't the most effective thing here be to weaponize the young depth to so we can invest heavily asset and cap wise in areas like Goaltending where we aren't strong?

I like Helle, he's a great goalie, but there are a lot of variables, from cost to contract extensions. Imagine that you pay him 10 million a year, and he fails in Buffalo because he does not fit the Granato system, this will be a disaster.


Yeap, this will be Bob's contract.

Yes it would be a shame if we ::checks notes:: made the playoffs every year like Florida has with Bobrovsky.

It's an opportunity to get the best goalie in the league in their prime still. If you add Hellebuyck and a top 4 d-man and revamp the bottom 6F group a bit, this is a playoff team next season and beyond. There are potential cap implications, sure. But it's not to the point it's untenable.

 

[Ace]

I don’t want to trade what it takes to get him and then pay what it takes to keep him…but I also don’t want to see the concept of addressing goaltending (where they have nothing proven whatsoever) with one of the best goalies on the planet long term dismissed as a “shortcut”.

how long is this journey supposed to be that we’re still talking about shortcuts? If Levi is like every other goalie in the world and takes a few years to grab the role in a meaningful way…that’s…the only plan allowed? To waste half of the years on those contracts we’re handing out on a maybe that might never? That’s not a plan. And if it is…then yeah….it needs what youd call a shortcut. And I’d call a plan.

 

[TehDoak]

True, GMs never learn, some stupid team will give him a 6-7 year big money contract.