Speculation: Sabres Roster Speculation - Pre-season 2023 Edition

[Fezzy126]

SInce this is probably at the top of everyone's minds:

 

[TehDoak]

If the kid makes the team and is one of the 12 best forwards, why would you want to keep him down? Even after saying he might be a slight upgrade. Young players aren't always bad defensively. They'll make mistakes, but they are going to do that whether you bring them in at 19 or at 23. They will still need to adjust to the NHL.

If they can play more responsible defensively that's realistically an area that improvement would benefit them significantly enough to help push them in to the playoffs. They can upgrade the 2nd pairing RD, and maybe even the 3rd pairing LD, then bringing in Savoie to take Olofssons spot doesn't harm the team (not that it would anyway). Given their trajectory I'd also say we should expect growth from Quinn and Peterka as well to offset some of those lost goals.

Because it's not about having the 12 'best' forwards. It's about winning games.

We didn't miss the playoffs because we didn't score enough goals. We missed the playoffs because we couldn't defend. We missed the playoffs because we allowed a ton of high danger chances against. We missed the playoffs because we had too many players in the wrong roles.

In a well architected team, not a NHL 23 roster, what role does Savoie play that will lead us to significant improvement next year? I'm actually asking because I can't seem to find a spot for him that doesn't involve us jettisoning one of our other young forwards (Quinn/Peterka/Krebs)

 

[Jim Bob]

Yeah....about that

Adams likely has more confidence in the guys they already have than a lot of fans.

Kind of like how McBeane have more confidence in Gabe Davis and Spencer Brown than a lot of fans.

Betting on growth from within last year got them a 16 point jump in standings points. I believe what happened last year leads Adams to have more confidence in doing less this off season as opposed to feeling pressure to do more.

Maybe Adams surprises me and is more aggressive. But, I will expect little to change and then I can be pleasantly surprised if it actually happens.

 

[Jim Bob]

SInce this is probably at the top of everyone's minds:

View attachment 701608

My guess is that Power waits until after next season to sign and Adams gets Dahlin signed to 7-8 years at less than $10M per.

Because it's not about having the 12 'best' forwards. It's about winning games.

We didn't miss the playoffs because we didn't score enough goals. We missed the playoffs because we couldn't defend. We missed the playoffs because we allowed a ton of high danger chances against. We missed the playoffs because we had too many players in the wrong roles.

In a well architected team, not a NHL 23 roster, what role does Savoie play that will lead us to significant improvement next year? I'm actually asking because I can't seem to find a spot for him that doesn't involve us jettisoning one of our other young forwards (Quinn/Peterka/Krebs)

They have talked about Savoie getting the "Wright treatment" next season, too.

So, they might start him off in a rotational role like Quinn & JJP were in to start the year, then he maybe gets a conditioning stint in Rochester, then he goes to the WJCs, and back to the WHL to finish the season.

They are going to continue to prioritize developing talent alongside trying to get more competitive. I do not believe that they see this as an either/or situation.

 

[TehDoak]

SInce this is probably at the top of everyone's minds:

View attachment 701608

I REALLY don't understand why you would sign Power to a six year extension. That makes him a UFA at 28. He has zero rights (Arb/offersheet/etc) as a 10.2 RFA. 3 year bridge to (Hopefully) an 8 year deal. Get all of his peak years, not half.

 

[Djp]

Because it's not about having the 12 'best' forwards. It's about winning games.

We didn't miss the playoffs because we didn't score enough goals. We missed the playoffs because we couldn't defend. We missed the playoffs because we allowed a ton of high danger chances against. We missed the playoffs because we had too many players in the wrong roles.

In a well architected team, not a NHL 23 roster, what role does Savoie play that will lead us to significant improvement next year? I'm actually asking because I can't seem to find a spot for him that doesn't involve us jettisoning one of our other young forwards (Quinn/Peterka/Krebs)

you can apply that same logic to any anfd all young players playing in the nhl as a rookie.

therr is a learning curve at play here

Savoie on the team vs some 4th line has bern making league min…I’ll take Savoie over that.

 

[TehDoak]

Adams likely has more confidence in the guys they already have than a lot of fans.

Kind of like how McBeane have more confidence in Gabe Davis and Spencer Brown than a lot of fans.

The Bills have nothing to do with Sabres. It's a 23 man roster not a 53. if Beane goes out and tries to get another #1 WR or a franchise RT, that is a math equation. Does the improvement they would get in terms of production justify the cost. Both Brown and Davis are on the most cost efficient deals you have. Upgrades would cost significantly more and take away from other parts of the team. The Bills are a capped out team in the middle of a contention window. The Sabres are a team that hasn't finished in the top half of the league in a dozen years and haven't won a playoff round in 16.

Betting on growth from within last year got them a 16 point jump in standings points. I believe what happened last year leads Adams to have more confidence in doing less this off season as opposed to feeling pressure to do more.

...and we've likely hit a glass ceiling in terms of improvement in the standings via this method. Each progression from a basement dwelling team to a contender is progressively.

Going from a 32nd to 25th? Easy. If you finish dead last you have a lot of problems to solve, so it's a matter of typically cycling out players and creating a new environment. Now, those issues can be more difficult depending on contracts/salary cap/etc. But given a clean slate, it's an accomplishment, sure, but it's not considered a difficult jump

25th to 18th? You've gone from bad to mediocre. Harder than going from terrible to bad, sure. But this is the worst place to linger. In this "not good enough to contend but not bad enough to get high end talent via the draft". And, it's the hardest area to leave. In the 10th-20th range range of teams is where teams sustain mediocrity.

We could have easily made the playoffs this year, heck, even with the team as is. A bounce here or there could have made the difference. But...even if we did, there are big issues with the roster. Issues that aren't going to be fixed by internal development

Maybe Adams surprises me and is more aggressive. But, I will expect little to change and then I can be pleasantly surprised if it actually happens.

I don't doubt that this will be Adams approach this summer. The issue is, his logic is flawed. he spoke on the Seravelli podcast that he told the team that if everyone just got a little bit better this summer, we'd be a playoff team next year. And that is such flawed thinking. Everyone could improve and we could still miss the playoffs next year. There are circumstances that are out of the teams control. Injuries, WHEN you play teams, heck, games getting cancelled due to weather and a compacted schedule. When you are aspiring to mediocrity, which, finishing in the 10-16 range in a 32 team is. If you miss a little due to circumstances outside your control, than your f***ed and it's a season down the drain.

We shouldn't be aspiring to marginal improvements and sustained mediocrity. We need to aspire to championship contention. I do think there is a balance to be had about spending, but given we have 2 top lines, we have 3 key contributors for next year (Power, Peterka, and Quinn) on ELCs, and a former 1st overall pick entering his prime. When will we have a better opportunity than right now? I can respect that we don't need to go all in at this very moment, but to sit here and deny that there isn't a window here to go out and make some noise is stupid.

 

[TehDoak]

you can apply that same logic to any anfd all young players playing in the nhl as a rookie.

therr is a learning curve at play here

Savoie on the team vs some 4th line has bern making league min…I’ll take Savoie over that.

A 4th liner who can win faceoffs, take tough matchups, and help with the PK will improve us more in the standings than a 19 year old scoring 25 goals while being sheltered.

 

[jc17]

I am once again beating the lafrienere drum. Really wonder what that cost would be

Playoffs had to have killed some value

 

[Der Jaeger]

I am once again beating the lafrienere drum. Really wonder what that cost would be

Playoffs had to have killed some value

The time to get power forwards are when they are young and down in value. Comtois comes to mind as well. Max Jones as a Marcus Foligno type would also work.

 

[Sabresfansince1980]

Compher on Cozens wing can slide Peterka to Krebs wing. Signing Sundqvist could be some insurance to have a big veteran guy if/when Savoie or Peterka struggle defensively or need to sit for another reason. Any of these guys would be good adds...

Mid range price - JT Compher, or trade for Elias Lindholm.

Low range price - Oscar Sundqvist, Garnet Hathaway, or Nick Bjugstad.

 

[Dirty Dog]

This would never happen, but if the jets want to retool…I’d love to use Peterka in a package to get Dubois. Dubois-Cozens-Quinn would be awesome

 

[Vito_81]

This would never happen, but if the jets want to retool…I’d love to use Peterka in a package to get Dubois. Dubois-Cozens-Quinn would be awesome

Just to have him cry and want out after a year or so.

 

[Jim Bob]

The Bills have nothing to do with Sabres. It's a 23 man roster not a 53. if Beane goes out and tries to get another #1 WR or a franchise RT, that is a math equation. Does the improvement they would get in terms of production justify the cost. Both Brown and Davis are on the most cost efficient deals you have. Upgrades would cost significantly more and take away from other parts of the team. The Bills are a capped out team in the middle of a contention window. The Sabres are a team that hasn't finished in the top half of the league in a dozen years and haven't won a playoff round in 16.



...and we've likely hit a glass ceiling in terms of improvement in the standings via this method. Each progression from a basement dwelling team to a contender is progressively.

Going from a 32nd to 25th? Easy. If you finish dead last you have a lot of problems to solve, so it's a matter of typically cycling out players and creating a new environment. Now, those issues can be more difficult depending on contracts/salary cap/etc. But given a clean slate, it's an accomplishment, sure, but it's not considered a difficult jump

25th to 18th? You've gone from bad to mediocre. Harder than going from terrible to bad, sure. But this is the worst place to linger. In this "not good enough to contend but not bad enough to get high end talent via the draft". And, it's the hardest area to leave. In the 10th-20th range range of teams is where teams sustain mediocrity.

We could have easily made the playoffs this year, heck, even with the team as is. A bounce here or there could have made the difference. But...even if we did, there are big issues with the roster. Issues that aren't going to be fixed by internal development




I don't doubt that this will be Adams approach this summer. The issue is, his logic is flawed. he spoke on the Seravelli podcast that he told the team that if everyone just got a little bit better this summer, we'd be a playoff team next year. And that is such flawed thinking. Everyone could improve and we could still miss the playoffs next year. There are circumstances that are out of the teams control. Injuries, WHEN you play teams, heck, games getting cancelled due to weather and a compacted schedule. When you are aspiring to mediocrity, which, finishing in the 10-16 range in a 32 team is. If you miss a little due to circumstances outside your control, than your f***ed and it's a season down the drain.

We shouldn't be aspiring to marginal improvements and sustained mediocrity. We need to aspire to championship contention. I do think there is a balance to be had about spending, but given we have 2 top lines, we have 3 key contributors for next year (Power, Peterka, and Quinn) on ELCs, and a former 1st overall pick entering his prime. When will we have a better opportunity than right now? I can respect that we don't need to go all in at this very moment, but to sit here and deny that there isn't a window here to go out and make some noise is stupid.

It all depends on how much room for growth they can get out of this group next season.

Some people will have a lot of confidence in what kind of growth they will see from internal growth. Others won't. Only time will tell who is right.

Plenty of people felt like the moves that Ottawa and Detroit made last summer were enough for them to pass the Sabres. And that teams like Florida were too far ahead of the Sabres for them to catch them.

Some people felt that Ottawa would get a boost down the stretch by trading for Chychrun. Yet, that isn't how things played out.

We will see what Adams will do. I just won't be surprised if his minimalist approach works better than some people think it will.

 

[Ehran]

Today would be a good day to sign Novikov and Neuchev.

Am I the only one that feels like the Sabres are always a day or so behind trends in the league?

Other teams have been signing Russian players for a few days now it seems like. But not Buffalo.

 

[BloFan4Life]

This team could really use Gudas and Bertuzzi on it next year.

 

[Jim Bob]

This team could really use Gudas and Bertuzzi on it next year.

I don't know that Gudas or Boosh are good enough to play in the top 4.

And I do not see the Sabres adding a winger like Bertuzzi.

 

[debaser66]

Kulich for Ullmark.

Who says no?

its not gonna happen in this reality

 

[BloFan4Life]

I don't know that Gudas or Boosh are good enough to play in the top 4.

And I do not see the Sabres adding a winger like Bertuzzi.

lol, delusional.

Gudas provides double the impact that Joker does. Not to mention, it would be nice to have a banger with Power.

Of course the Sabres wouldn't want to add a scoring winger with grit. They would rather bring in a guy like Greenway, who provides neither.

 

[MarkusKetterer]

Am I the only one that feels like the Sabres are always a day or so behind trends in the league?

Other teams have been signing Russian players for a few days now it seems like. But not Buffalo.

I mean, it is kind of up to the players to sign too. You can’t just put a gun to their head and make them sign.

 

[Jim Bob]

lol, delusional.

Gudas provides double the impact that Joker does. Not to mention, it would be nice to have a banger with Power.

Of course the Sabres wouldn't want to add a scoring winger with grit. They would rather bring in a guy like Greenway, who provides neither.

Gudas played less than 15 minutes per game at ES this season. Boosh played less than 13 minutes per game at ES this season.

Joker & Samuelsson played 19-21 minutes per game at ES this season.

I don't know if Gudas could handle that extra workload.

 

[TehDoak]

It all depends on how much room for growth they can get out of this group next season.

I mean, your top line is probably as good as it's going to be. Thompson, Skinner, and Tuch all had career years. You got 119 goals out of your top line....there isn't a ton of upside left there. In fact, you are probably going to see regression out of it a bit as teams will get more tape on what they are doing and be able to game plan for it better.

You have potential growth out of your 2nd line if one of Peterka or Quinn take a step.

The top 3 of your D has room for growth, though Dahlin is (obviously) much closer to the ceiling than Samuelsson/Power currently.

I mean, the big impacts in terms of results would be:

Power less of a liability and driving the play from the back end more.

Krebs being able to have more positive defensive impacts while contributing to offense more.

Those are you two BIG impact areas of growth.

A few more goals from Quinn/Cozens/Peterka aren't going to change much.

Some people will have a lot of confidence in what kind of growth they will see from internal growth. Others won't. Only time will tell who is right.

I don't agree with this. You can look at the roster and see where the potential for growth is and try to measure it's impacts. There are plenty of areas were there isn't going to be a ton of growth and we should get outside help. Realistically, where can internal growth fix the PK? Faceoffs? Improved defensive zone coverage? These are areas that will require system changes, coaching changes, and in some cases, personnel changes.

Plenty of people felt like the moves that Ottawa and Detroit made last summer were enough for them to pass the Sabres. And that teams like Florida were too far ahead of the Sabres for them to catch them.

I'd argue the biggest differentiator between us and Ottawa/Detroit were injuries. Norris only played 8 games, Chycrun got injured. Husso got banged up/overworked in the 2nd half for Detroit as well as longer term injuries for Bertuzzi/Fabbri.

Some people felt that Ottawa would get a boost down the stretch by trading for Chychrun. Yet, that isn't how things played out.

(he got injured)

We will see what Adams will do. I just won't be surprised if his minimalist approach works better than some people think it will.

The hands off approach works when there are no expectation and plenty of low hanging fruit to get fixed. Each level of improvement is progressively harder. In the last two years we've gone from bottom of the barrel to mediocre. To go from Mediocre to good is going to require a more focused effort when it comes to addressing problems.

 

[joshjull]

I was more specific earlier in this thread, but I'm talking about the top line. They already were great together to end the season before. For some reason Granato didn't put them back together until mid November. Tinker when the team isn't scoring, but that wasn't a problem except for TT. He didn't get going until November, and going full swing until Tuch was back on the line.

The top line was back together by game #3 vs Oilers. The top line started the season apart 2gms, together 6gms, apart 5gms and then back together. They stayed together pretty much from then on until Tage’s injury.

At the start of the season Donny was jugging a lot. He was trying to figure out who fit where while also cycling young players in and out of lineup. The template he worked off while doing this….

Skinner/Tage/Tuch
_____/Cozens/____
_____/Mitts/Olofsson **
Girgs***/___/Okposo

** Olofsson first two games on top line, primarily with Mitts after
*** Girgs played as much at center as wing until Jost was claimed.

The 4 “openings” were filled with a rotation of Peterka, Quinn, Krebs, Asplund and Hino.

They were hoping Krebs would figure out wing + Asplund 4th line center. Neither worked out further complicating things and leading to even more shuffling that frequently had Girgs sliding to center.

Game #18 -> Last game of 8gm losing streak. Quinn returns to lineup from injury and the Tage/Kid lines making up the top 6 is in place for good. Jost is claimed off waivers at this time.

Game #19 -> Jost enters the lineup. They spend the next five games sorting out where he fits (wing or center + what line). They settle on 4th line center. Krebs sat for most, if not all, of this stretch.

Game #24 -> Krebs returns to line up centering the 3rd line between VO/Mitts. This is the start of Mitts on the wing as well.

Game #26 -> After two games of VO/Krebs/Mitts they decide its nor working. So they swap Jost and Krebs for this game. Thus creating the line structure we’ve had ever since.


You’re 100% correct when you say there won’t be the same level of chaos with the lines at the start of next year. But the cause of it wasn’t Donny tinkering with the top line. It was him trying to juggle multiple things with the forwards while trying to piece together a lineup.


EDIT: Jost turned out to be a huge waiver addition. He really helped stabilize things.

 

[MarkusKetterer]

The top line was back together by game #3 vs Oilers. The top line started the season apart 2gms, together 6gms, apart 5gms and then back together. They stayed together pretty much from then on until Tage’s injury.

At the start of the season Donny was jugging a lot. He was trying to figure out who fit where while also cycling young players in and out of lineup. The template he worked off while doing this….

Skinner/Tage/Tuch
_____/Cozens/____
_____/Mitts/Olofsson **
Girgs***/___/Okposo

** Olofsson first two games on top line, primarily with Mitts after
*** Girgs played as much at center as wing until Jost was claimed.

The 4 “openings” were filled with a rotation of Peterka, Quinn, Krebs, Asplund and Hino.

They were hoping Krebs would figure out wing + Asplund 4th line center. Neither worked out further complicating things and leading to even more shuffling that frequently had Girgs sliding to center.

Game #18 -> Last game of 8gm losing streak. Quinn returns to lineup from injury and the Tage/Kid lines making up the top 6 is in place for good. Jost is claimed off waivers at this time.

Game #19 -> Jost enters the lineup. They spend the next five games sorting out where he fits (wing or center + what line). They settle on 4th line center. Krebs sat for most, if not all, of this stretch.

Game #24 -> Krebs returns to line up centering the 3rd line between VO/Mitts. This is the start of Mitts on the wing as well.

Game #26 -> After two games of VO/Krebs/Mitts they decide its nor working. So they swap Jost and Krebs for this game. Thus creating the line structure we’ve had ever since.


You’re 100% correct when you say there won’t be the same level of chaos with the lines at the start of next year. But the cause of it wasn’t Donny tinkering with the top line. It was him trying to juggle multiple things with the forwards while trying to piece together a lineup.


EDIT: Jost turned out to be a huge waiver addition. He really helped stabilize things.

Sir, this is HFSabres. We don’t deal with facts here. Only hot takes.

 

[Jim Bob]

I mean, your top line is probably as good as it's going to be. Thompson, Skinner, and Tuch all had career years. You got 119 goals out of your top line....there isn't a ton of upside left there. In fact, you are probably going to see regression out of it a bit as teams will get more tape on what they are doing and be able to game plan for it better.

You have potential growth out of your 2nd line if one of Peterka or Quinn take a step.

The top 3 of your D has room for growth, though Dahlin is (obviously) much closer to the ceiling than Samuelsson/Power currently.

I mean, the big impacts in terms of results would be:

Power less of a liability and driving the play from the back end more.

Krebs being able to have more positive defensive impacts while contributing to offense more.

Those are you two BIG impact areas of growth.

A few more goals from Quinn/Cozens/Peterka aren't going to change much.



I don't agree with this. You can look at the roster and see where the potential for growth is and try to measure it's impacts. There are plenty of areas were there isn't going to be a ton of growth and we should get outside help. Realistically, where can internal growth fix the PK? Faceoffs? Improved defensive zone coverage? These are areas that will require system changes, coaching changes, and in some cases, personnel changes.




I'd argue the biggest differentiator between us and Ottawa/Detroit were injuries. Norris only played 8 games, Chycrun got injured. Husso got banged up/overworked in the 2nd half for Detroit as well as longer term injuries for Bertuzzi/Fabbri.



(he got injured)



The hands off approach works when there are no expectation and plenty of low hanging fruit to get fixed. Each level of improvement is progressively harder. In the last two years we've gone from bottom of the barrel to mediocre. To go from Mediocre to good is going to require a more focused effort when it comes to addressing problems.

Looking at potential growth from the forward group just merely on goal production just goes to how you view the potential for growth much differently than Adams likely looks at it.

And as far as Chychrun getting injured, nobody should be too surprised. And it just goes to how additions are not guaranteed to improve a team. Just like how largely standing pat does not mean that a team will stagnate.

Regardless of the path that Adams takes this summer, or at the TDL, results are not guaranteed.

Adams could make a big move or two that the fanbase celebrates and it doesn't work out for a variety of reasons. <cough>Chychrun trade</cough>

Adams could make minimal changes and they make the playoffs next year because Levi is a unicorn and the kids take much bigger steps than many expect.

Only time will tell what moves Adams makes and the impact they have.