Speculation: Sabres Roster Speculation - Pre-season 2023 Edition

[NotABadPeriod]

He can go back but it starts the clock on the ELC, that was the biggest problem with Grigs, Darcy kept him up past the 9 games when he was 18 so it burned the 1st year off the ELC instead of having it slide.

Because of the shortened season that year, I think the limit was actually 5 games for Grigorenko. Less time for them to figure out he wasn't quite ready, and once they passed that date, they were committed.

 

[Irie]

or Savoie isn't as talented as Wright even at an older age hence the draft position

Hopefully Savoie doesn't have the same issues.

Despite being deemed an exceptional status player and entering the OHL a year early, Wright missed a year of development with the OHL covid shutdown and came into Seattle's camp with a blow-average ability to process the game.

He has an elite shot and goal scoring ability for a player of his age, but for most of his 5-7 minutes of icetime in the NHL games he played he just chased the puck around the ice.

Expectations of him as an 18 year old were probably unfair, but there was a legitimate reason why he fell from can't miss first overall to the 4th pick behind 2 other forwards. He still has a lot of developing to do in terms of his on-ice awaremess.

Savoie may not have the natural goal scoring ability Wright currently has, but he likely has different stengths to his game that may help him remain in the league if he makes the team out of camp.

 

[Gras]

Because of the shortened season that year, I think the limit was actually 5 games for Grigorenko. Less time for them to figure out he wasn't quite ready, and once they passed that date, they were committed.

Darcy still sent him back the Jr after like 30 games though

 

[TehDoak]

Darcy still sent him back the Jr after like 30 games though

Wasnt that lafontaine who did that?

 

[Chainshot]

Wasnt that lafontaine who did that?

No that was Regier and Ruff.

 

[joshjull]

or Savoie isn't as talented as Wright even at an older age hence the draft position

Savoie will either be ready for the NHL next season or he won’t. How he compared to Wright on draft day has no bearing on that.

 

[TehDoak]

No that was Regier and Ruff.

Both? Sabres’ Pat LaFontaine believes Mikhail Grigorenko can thrive in junior - Buffalo Hockey Beat

 

[Chainshot]

Both? Sabres’ Pat LaFontaine believes Mikhail Grigorenko can thrive in junior - Buffalo Hockey Beat

Ruff and Regier kept him around in camp after the lockout and into the regular season to burn his first year. Regier sacked Ruff that year, replaced him with Rolston, then started the next year with Ron (and Greg O'Renko on the roster) before LaFontaine killed his dinner date with Pegula to become president of the team in November. Both season 1 and 2 were Regier burning them.

 

[Matt Ress]

Helley looking for a new team?

 

[Ace]

or Savoie isn't as talented as Wright even at an older age hence the draft position

Are you one of the people who is going to be surprised to learn who Savoie is next year? Or are we just throwing out ridiculous hypotheticals for fun.

maybe the sun will explode before his tenth game.

 

[DJN21]

Are you one of the people who is going to be surprised to learn who Savoie is next year? Or are we just throwing out ridiculous hypotheticals for fun.

maybe the sun will explode before his tenth game.

Yes to all. Especially the sun one!

 

[TehDoak]

Helley looking for a new team?

"I want to win a cup and time is running out"

"So, how do you feel about going to a team with the longest playoff drought in professional sports that will likely have to face one of Boston/Tampa/Toronto in the first round for the foreseeable future?"

I love Helley....but our cup window won't be open till he's a UFA.

 

[Chainshot]

"I want to win a cup and time is running out"

"So, how do you feel about going to a team with the longest playoff drought in professional sports that will likely have to face one of Boston/Tampa/Toronto in the first round for the foreseeable future?"

I love Helley....but our cup window won't be open till he's a UFA.

Not sure if you just watched two of those three fold like cheap suits, but they did.

 

[TageGod]

Savoie will be in the sabres lineup on day 1. As good as Kulich was he is in a good place to continue to develop and be the first callup (assuming he doesn't make the roster) which he might. Hard to fit them both on third line. Perhaps one can be on 4th line but its not ideal. Better to let Kulich in year two dominate the ahl like Quinn and JJ did.

 

[Jim Bob]

Helley looking for a new team?

Chain mentioned me on a main board thread about Hellebuyck and here are my thoughts on him potentially being available via trade.

So, I do not have access to Clearsight Analytics data which would be the best source to compare what kinds of chances Hellebuyck is best at stopping and the kinds of chances that the Sabres have been giving up.

But, here is some HDscSA vs All Shots faced at EV for the Sabres over the last two seasons and comparing it to what Hellebuyck has seen in Winnipeg.

In 2021-22, 19.04% of shots Sabres goalies faced were rated HDscSA.
In 2022-23, that increased to 21.79%.

In his career with Winnipeg, Hellebuyck has had 14.15% of his shots against being HDscSA. But, there has been a significant increase in that number each of the past two seasons for Hellebuyck. Last year it was up to 19.22% and this season it rose slightly to 19.68%.

Eric Comrie is nowhere near as good as Hellebuyck. But, he went from seeing 16.98% HDscSA% in Winnipeg to 24.74% in Buffalo this past season. And that did not equate to Comrie playing well. Although, injuries both to himself and the D in front of him added to the struggles for Comrie this season.

The big potential issue with Hellebuyck's fit in Buffalo is whether he is a fit with all of the breakaways and plays across the slotline that the Sabres have allowed over the past two seasons.

Just going off of what I have seen and what I have heard and read from Kevin Woodley from InGoal Magazine & the InGoal Radio podcast (he has had some great appearances on the PDOCast this year for some awesome goalie analytics conversations), I would not be surprised if Hellebuyck were a disappointment if the Sabres traded for him.

But, I am not expecting Kevyn Adams to go that route and acquire a big time, big money goalie. He has trusted in the kids he has had in the system so far. So, until he actually makes a move like this, I am just expecting that he goes into training camp with Levi, UPL, and Comrie and they will fight it out.

I have concerns about what happens if Levi can't play like he did in his cameo at the end of this season. But, that does not mean that I expect Adams to share those concerns and to make a big move like adding Hellebuyck to mitigate those concerns.

I won't be shocked if Hellebuyck goes to Ottawa and Detroit and Sabres fans lose their minds again.

 

[TehDoak]

Not sure if you just watched two of those three fold like cheap suits, but they did.

Tampa didn't, Tampa outplayed Toronto by a wide margin and lost 3 OT games and the series in 6. Toronto was probably the best team in 1 of their wins. Tampa was also dealing with injuries. Hedman being banged up is probably what ultimately tipped the scales.

Boston also lost 2 OT games. A bounce away from putting Florida away in 5.

Boston is a question mark moving forward with their cap situation. Tampa still has a few more years in their window, though they are going to keep bleeding off a piece or two a season.

Hellebuyck doesn't have a NTC or NMC, so he doesn't have a say where he goes.

So this is probably more of a discussion for next year rather than this, though Winnipeg may let him negotiate an extension before a trade this summer to maximize value. You are looking at teams who are in the middle of their contention window and need a goalie. Carolina is probably the 1st team I'd think of given their current situation.

I just don't think he's going to look at a team like Buffalo, Detroit or Ottawa and say "Yeah, sign me up there". The only real wildcard is that he's from Commerce, MI, which is a detroit suburb.

 

[Chainshot]

Tampa didn't, Tampa outplayed Toronto by a wide margin and lost 3 OT games and the series in 6. Toronto was probably the best team in 1 of their wins. Tampa was also dealing with injuries. Hedman being banged up is probably what ultimately tipped the scales.

In a game of attrition, Tampa's long run of being able to manipulate their cap to insure their best possible team was on the ice failed them finally with a defense that just wasn't good enough.

Boston also lost 2 OT games. A bounce away from putting Florida away in 5.

See, with your months of caterwauling about Adams, this is the point that you point to a team's ho-hum #1 goalie coming back in. It's not like the Bruins didn't exploit the Panthers #3 to start the series.

Boston is a question mark moving forward with their cap situation. Tampa still has a few more years in their window, though they are going to keep bleeding off a piece or two a season.

And the Leafs have some massive questions as well including how to retain their former league MVP. Or who is going to start for them in goal.

Hellebuyck doesn't have a NTC or NMC, so he doesn't have a say where he goes.

So this is probably more of a discussion for next year rather than this, though Winnipeg may let him negotiate an extension before a trade this summer to maximize value. You are looking at teams who are in the middle of their contention window and need a goalie. Carolina is probably the 1st team I'd think of given their current situation.

I just don't think he's going to look at a team like Buffalo, Detroit or Ottawa and say "Yeah, sign me up there". The only real wildcard is that he's from Commerce, MI, which is a detroit suburb.

Toronto is the absolute first team I think of for needing a goalie. Carolina has an excellent prospect tender in Kochetkov, their situation isn't nearly as dire. The Leafs though?

And as you pointed out, Hellebuyck does not have destination control so if the Jets actually decide to do anything there, they can find the best bid to help them with their rebuild/retool/continued glacial wasting of everyone's time. That very much puts even a team like Montreal into the mix as a destination.

 

[Djp]

Hopefully Savoie doesn't have the same issues.

Despite being deemed an exceptional status player and entering the OHL a year early, Wright missed a year of development with the OHL covid shutdown and came into Seattle's camp with a blow-average ability to process the game.

He has an elite shot and goal scoring ability for a player of his age, but for most of his 5-7 minutes of icetime in the NHL games he played he just chased the puck around the ice.

Expectations of him as an 18 year old were probably unfair, but there was a legitimate reason why he fell from can't miss first overall to the 4th pick behind 2 other forwards. He still has a lot of developing to do in terms of his on-ice awaremess.

Savoie may not have the natural goal scoring ability Wright currently has, but he likely has different stengths to his game that may help him remain in the league if he makes the team out of camp.

Savoie missed a year in CHL too. Had COVID not occurred, Savoie would have done 4 CHL years and this Buffalo would have his full control and could send him to Rochester.

Because of the shortened season that year, I think the limit was actually 5 games for Grigorenko. Less time for them to figure out he wasn't quite ready, and once they passed that date, they were committed.

it was the day count test got Darcy. They tried to limit his games but there is also a day clock ticking. I think it’s 30 days Fora full season.

Savoiewas one of the last ones in camp.
no matter what I see him getting nhl games in October and see. Could they send him back…yes.

 

[TehDoak]

In a game of attrition, Tampa's long run of being able to manipulate their cap to insure their best possible team was on the ice failed them finally with a defense that just wasn't good enough.



See, with your months of caterwauling about Adams, this is the point that you point to a team's ho-hum #1 goalie coming back in. It's not like the Bruins didn't exploit the Panthers #3 to start the series.



And the Leafs have some massive questions as well including how to retain their former league MVP. Or who is going to start for them in goal.



Toronto is the absolute first team I think of for needing a goalie. Carolina has an excellent prospect tender in Kochetkov, their situation isn't nearly as dire. The Leafs though?

And as you pointed out, Hellebuyck does not have destination control so if the Jets actually decide to do anything there, they can find the best bid to help them with their rebuild/retool/continued glacial wasting of everyone's time. That very much puts even a team like Montreal into the mix as a destination.

The issue with the Leafs is going to be Murray's NTC and the fact they essentially emptied their clip for their current run. I'm not sure how they add Hellebuyck's contract without moving out Murray.

I'd be fine with going after Hellebuyck if he's available. I simply don't think he'd sign a long term extension here which you'd really need to be able to justify the up front price you'd have to pay.

However, I do think his presence could depress the market for Hart or other trade candidate goalies. With Dubois and likely Hellebuyck out the door this summer, the Jets could be a fun firesale team. Pionk becomes a potential target with a NTC kicking in July 1.

 

[Matt Ress]

"I want to win a cup and time is running out"

"So, how do you feel about going to a team with the longest playoff drought in professional sports that will likely have to face one of Boston/Tampa/Toronto in the first round for the foreseeable future?"

I love Helley....but our cup window won't be open till he's a UFA.

Well we'll see what he does over the summer. Doesn't look like he wants to stick around for a rebuild. And I don't see any contenders looking for a goalie. Maybe NJ

 

[Zman5778]

Well we'll see what he does over the summer. Doesn't look like he wants to stick around for a rebuild. And I don't see any contenders looking for a goalie. Maybe NJ

For Helle.......several contenders will be in on him: Colorado, Toronto, NJ, Vegas, Edmonton. Then there's Ottawa who will be in.....and who knows who else.

It's likely easier to list teams who would NOT be interested.

 

[Matt Ress]

Chain mentioned me on a main board thread about Hellebuyck and here are my thoughts on him potentially being available via trade.

So, I do not have access to Clearsight Analytics data which would be the best source to compare what kinds of chances Hellebuyck is best at stopping and the kinds of chances that the Sabres have been giving up.

But, here is some HDscSA vs All Shots faced at EV for the Sabres over the last two seasons and comparing it to what Hellebuyck has seen in Winnipeg.

In 2021-22, 19.04% of shots Sabres goalies faced were rated HDscSA.
In 2022-23, that increased to 21.79%.

In his career with Winnipeg, Hellebuyck has had 14.15% of his shots against being HDscSA. But, there has been a significant increase in that number each of the past two seasons for Hellebuyck. Last year it was up to 19.22% and this season it rose slightly to 19.68%.

Eric Comrie is nowhere near as good as Hellebuyck. But, he went from seeing 16.98% HDscSA% in Winnipeg to 24.74% in Buffalo this past season. And that did not equate to Comrie playing well. Although, injuries both to himself and the D in front of him added to the struggles for Comrie this season.

The big potential issue with Hellebuyck's fit in Buffalo is whether he is a fit with all of the breakaways and plays across the slotline that the Sabres have allowed over the past two seasons.

Just going off of what I have seen and what I have heard and read from Kevin Woodley from InGoal Magazine & the InGoal Radio podcast (he has had some great appearances on the PDOCast this year for some awesome goalie analytics conversations), I would not be surprised if Hellebuyck were a disappointment if the Sabres traded for him.

But, I am not expecting Kevyn Adams to go that route and acquire a big time, big money goalie. He has trusted in the kids he has had in the system so far. So, until he actually makes a move like this, I am just expecting that he goes into training camp with Levi, UPL, and Comrie and they will fight it out.

I have concerns about what happens if Levi can't play like he did in his cameo at the end of this season. But, that does not mean that I expect Adams to share those concerns and to make a big move like adding Hellebuyck to mitigate those concerns.

I won't be shocked if Hellebuyck goes to Ottawa and Detroit and Sabres fans lose their minds again.

Great work. I guess the big question is, would anyone be successful seeing every 4th shot as a high danger SA? Sheesh.

As an aside, in his short time, Levi sported an .870% against HDsa which is in line with Ullmark, Swayman, Georgiev... and saw a whopping 36% of his shots against be HD according to Player Season Totals - Natural Stat Trick

So it's clearly a system issue that nobody would have been good in. Pretty good reason to not spend assets. So we should expect to see Granato play the healthy hot hand all season. I mean it makes sense from a contract perspective.

 

[Jim Bob]

Great work. I guess the big question is, would anyone be successful seeing every 4th shot as a high danger SA? Sheesh.

As an aside, in his short time, Levi sported an .870% against HDsa which is in line with Ullmark, Swayman, Georgiev... and saw a whopping 36% of his shots against be HD according to Player Season Totals - Natural Stat Trick

So it's clearly a system issue that nobody would have been good in. Pretty good reason to not spend assets. So we should expect to see Granato play the healthy hot hand all season. I mean it makes sense from a contract perspective.

Goalies that rely on skating and/or are elite at reading the play (like Anderson is) are the type of goalies that I would expect to be able to do reasonably well in this environment.

I doubt Adams spends meaningful assets as that is not how he has approached things so far. So, I will only believe that he is taking a different approach when he makes a move that suggests it.

 

[Matt Ress]

Goalies that rely on skating and/or are elite at reading the play (like Anderson is) are the type of goalies that I would expect to be able to do reasonably well in this environment.

I doubt Adams spends meaningful assets as that is not how he has approached things so far. So, I will only believe that he is taking a different approach when he makes a move that suggests it.

Yeah agreed. He certainly doesn't "have" to do anything this off-season. We'll see what Granato has up his sleeve.

 

[TehDoak]

For Helle.......several contenders will be in on him: Colorado, Toronto, NJ, Vegas, Edmonton. Then there's Ottawa who will be in.....and who knows who else.

It's likely easier to list teams who would NOT be interested.

If you assume, at the very least, they will send him out of the division

Vegas: Depends on Lehner
LA: No 1st, have to clear space
Edmonton: No space, No 1st
Seattle: Would need to move Grubauer (NTC)
Toronto: Need to move Murray (NTC)
Ottawa: No 1st. Maybe they can find a taker for Debrincat and move those picks for Helley
Detroit: Hometown team, 2x 1sts, 3x 3rds
Carolina: Plenty of cap space, still have their 1st
NJD: No 1st, short on space. Would have to be Vanacek+ for him
Pittsburgh: Actually a sneaky good fit. Win now team, cap space and (some) draft capital.

My early favorite would be Vegas (depending on what is happening with Lehner), followed by Pittsburgh, Carolina and Detroit (if Detroit could sell him on the Yzerplan), with NJD as the darkhorse.