Speculation: Sabres Roster Speculation - Pre-season 2023 Edition

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Buffalo Sabres

2022-23 record: 42-33-7, 91 points

The best case for major improvements: Buffalo is the second straight team to make this list due to its potential to meet the “young players aging into greatness” criterion. Consider the following:

  • Tage Thompson showed what a unique force he can be two seasons ago. Then, when we doubted the sustainability of Thompson’s 38-goal season in last year’s piece, he scored 47 and added 47 assists to take things to another level.
  • Dylan Cozens is still only 22 but scored 68 points in 81 games last year while generating a ton of scoring chances.
  • Rasmus Dahlin is only 23 and drives play at both ends of the rink.
  • Owen Power is 20 and scored 35 points as a teenager without getting caved in scoring-chance-wise at his end of the rink.
Thompson is fun to talk about because of his unique combination of size, hands and creativity but it’s tough to see him pushing past the 94-point production he already hit one year ago. Cozens, Dahlin and Power are still very much on the upswing, though — as are Jack Quinn, JJ Peterka and Peyton Krebs, if you’re looking for a second wave of talent after the potential elites. (Quinn tore his Achilles in June, mind you, and will miss the start of the season.)

It also seems fitting that the youngest team in the NHL will turn to a 21-year-old goaltender, Devon Levi, in an attempt to cut down on the 297 goals it gave up last season. Offensive breakthroughs are one thing but the single best thing that could happen to the Sabres would be Levi arriving as an impact player in goal in his first full season. It’s a big ask but Levi is a phenomenal prospect. He’s also joining a team that got 52 games of sub-.900 save percentage goaltending from Eric Comrie and Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen last season. Levi could swing things in Buffalo’s favour just by matching his own seven games’ worth of performance at the end of last season.
 
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31 goals and 68 point, big, fast, defensively responsible center who put up those numbers last year while he was mostly 21 years old.... and, he is signed to a great 7 year contract and wants to play for the Sabres.

You honestly do not want to know what the cost would be to pry him away from Buffalo.
Uh.... defensively responsible? He was the 11th worst forward in the league by DEF WAR last season with a -7.3
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3 year chart
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The Athletic also has him as one of the worst defensive forwards in the league.
1695219359026.png
 
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What a weak piece. Mike Harrington: It's time for Sabres to perform with swagger that's been missing for too long

None of the Sabres's weaknesses were addressed. No discussion of playing below cap or inability to make a key trade. When did the Buffalo News stop adding any value? I'm sticking with bloggers or the opinions of people in here. I think on any given day, there are better arguments about the Sabres postulated on hfboards than BufNews.
decades ago
 
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What a weak piece. Mike Harrington: It's time for Sabres to perform with swagger that's been missing for too long

None of the Sabres's weaknesses were addressed. No discussion of playing below cap or inability to make a key trade. When did the Buffalo News stop adding any value? I'm sticking with bloggers or the opinions of people in here. I think on any given day, there are better arguments about the Sabres postulated on hfboards than BufNews.
When Mike Harrington isn't critical or negative enough for you...
 
However the lines and pairings end up, I think there are two roster spots for grabs, 8th D or 3rd G (Bryson or Comrie) and 13th F. If Savoie starts on IR it's Rousek. I'd keep Comrie over Bryson as Bryson is a known quantity and Comrie kind of gets a pass for last season with the injuries

I'd feel better with Clague or RyJo or Metsa as the 8D. Hell Novikov too.
 
What a weak piece. Mike Harrington: It's time for Sabres to perform with swagger that's been missing for too long

None of the Sabres's weaknesses were addressed. No discussion of playing below cap or inability to make a key trade. When did the Buffalo News stop adding any value? I'm sticking with bloggers or the opinions of people in here. I think on any given day, there are better arguments about the Sabres postulated on hfboards than BufNews.
nobody likes Harrington but I think this is him saying no more excuses, get it done. I think the media will be quite a bit harder on the Sabres this coming season if their performances warrants it.

Nobody is buying the “young team” response anymore, is what I felt he was getting at.
 
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nobody likes Harrington but I think this is him saying no more excuses, get it done. I think the media will be quite a bit harder on the Sabres this coming season if their performances warrants it.

Nobody is buying the “young team” response anymore, is what I felt he was getting at.

I get the thesis, but it's just so obvious. There is no serious analysis in the piece. I feel like Harrington used to be borderline rude toward the team at times, and now he's so on board the rebuild train he doesn't ask any tough questions and accepts the party line all the time. Whatever he gets told, he accepts. The worst example was his scoop on the team cracking down on out-of-town Leafs buying tickets. Nothing like that happened at all. In any way. Leafs fans cab buy as many tickets as they want.
 
What a weak piece. Mike Harrington: It's time for Sabres to perform with swagger that's been missing for too long

None of the Sabres's weaknesses were addressed. No discussion of playing below cap or inability to make a key trade.
Because you're wrong that these are actual weaknesses. They're not.

I get the thesis, but it's just so obvious. There is no serious analysis in the piece. I feel like Harrington used to be borderline rude toward the team at times, and now he's so on board the rebuild train he doesn't ask any tough questions and accepts the party line all the time. Whatever he gets told, he accepts. The worst example was his scoop on the team cracking down on out-of-town Leafs buying tickets. Nothing like that happened at all. In any way. Leafs fans cab buy as many tickets as they want.
He serves people who are casual fans that barely know the players names outside of the stars, I don't think you're the target audience.
 
nobody likes Harrington but I think this is him saying no more excuses, get it done. I think the media will be quite a bit harder on the Sabres this coming season if their performances warrants it.

Nobody is buying the “young team” response anymore, is what I felt he was getting at.

Are they not still the youngest team? It feels like we lose objectivity if we ignore that.
 
Are they not still the youngest team? It feels like we lose objectivity if we ignore that.
According to eliteprospects.com we are still the youngest team.

I swear I saw a different source have us at like 4th youngest though.
 
Because you're wrong that these are actual weaknesses. They're not.


He serves people who are casual fans that barely know the players names outside of the stars, I don't think you're the target audience.
Those people don't pay. I got an offer of $1 for six months of Buffalo News.
 
Harrington is a water cooler journalist. His market is the people who read or hear what he says and the parrot it at the water cooler the next day to make it seem like they really care about sports. "Did you catch that ludicrous display last night?"
 
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Uh.... defensively responsible? He was the 11th worst forward in the league by DEF WAR last season with a -7.3

Yep. We can watch the games and see a 21 year old who is top 3 on the team in PK time a game, who back checks hard, and reads the ice pretty well for his age and understands passing lanes and positioning and evaluate the player on his play

Or...

we can read a chart that takes everything out of context and completely ignores that a 21 year old is playing top six minutes and centering two physically under-developed rookies on a team without a defensive system that plays incredibly loose, and use the goals the team surrendered to compare him to players in completely different situations on different teams and pretend that the 100 bucks we dropped to obtain this info was worth it.

A good measuring stick to check the validity of your charts is to post Taylor Hall's player card with the sabres and Taylor Hall's player card with the Bruins and compare them. Please humor me and do that. I mean, if they are accurately measuring the ability of a player, then they should be extremely consistent, right?

Looking forward to the results of this experiment.
 
Are they not still the youngest team? It feels like we lose objectivity if we ignore that.

The key thing here is not "are they the youngest team overall", but take the age of the teams top 9 forwards and top 4 defensemen, and compare those numbers to other teams around the league, and they will be the youngest on that list by quite a large margin I am thinking.

The core of this team is crazy young.
 
Harrington is a water cooler journalist. His market is the people who read or hear what he says and the parrot it at the water cooler the next day to make it seem like they really care about sports. "Did you catch that ludicrous display last night?"

I don't use/have photoshop, but you all know the drill.
Red sleeveless: Mike Harrignton.
Plaid short-sleeve: Casual hockey fan.
Baby-blue sleeveless: @HFBoards members.
1695234061743.jpeg
 
With a few more quiet days until Training Camp what does everyone think the Sabres D depth chart will look like in 2-3 year btw without deals, FA, additional drafts, etc?

Dahlin/Samuelsson
Power/R Johnson
Strbak/Novikov

Metsa/McCarthy/Komorov/Lindgren
Not sure Johnson has 2nd pairing upside, I can see one of the younger ones or signing or a trade taking up that spot.
Novikov would be ideal, since he brings a physical element, that Power & Johnson are missing
 
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However the lines and pairings end up, I think there are two roster spots for grabs, 8th D or 3rd G (Bryson or Comrie) and 13th F. If Savoie starts on IR it's Rousek. I'd keep Comrie over Bryson as Bryson is a known quantity and Comrie kind of gets a pass for last season with the injuries

I'd feel better with Clague or RyJo or Metsa as the 8D. Hell Novikov too.

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Uh.... defensively responsible? He was the 11th worst forward in the league by DEF WAR last season with a -7.3
View attachment 744530

3 year chart
View attachment 744531
The Athletic also has him as one of the worst defensive forwards in the league.
View attachment 744537

Cozens primary linemates (Quinn/JJP) were benched late in games when protecting a lead. So on the surface Cozens' metrics were dragging his teammates down, when in reality it was Granato's deployment putting him in a heavy defensive role with multiple players that made it look like he was a drag on everyone else. The algorithms that produce these charts can't make that distinction.

From my perspective he didn't take the step forward defensively that I hoped for, and he also had a few more lapses losing his man in his own zone than I would have liked. However, he was far far far from a bad defensive forward. These charts are too stupid to understand his deployment...
 
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