Speculation: Sabres Roster Speculation - Pre-season 2023 Edition

[Irie]

I get that and I know you have a lot going on here but go ahead and sign Mitts to 4x7 if he can put up 80 points on the top line because the only way that happens is if Thompson and Cozens are burning down huts. Otherwise Mitts isn't sticking to that role. It's like hoping players aren't successful because then we'll have to pay them. That doesn't make sense right? We'll have several ELCs easing the cap soon and you can always trade a good young player for a boat load if that's the issue.

But what if Mitts does putt up 82 on the top line between Tuch and Skinner, but can only score 50 on the 3rd line? Arbitration would be a bitch.

Dahlin is going to get paid. 10+
Power is going to get paid. 8+
Tuch is going to get paid. 9+

In 3 seasons there will be a cap reckoning. This team is likely going to have to sell off some great pieces to remain cap compliant, and it's going to really hit their odds at winning a cup.

Don't look at it as "hoping players aren't successful", because that is not at all what I am implying here. The reality is that there are a lot of top 6 pieces that are fairly interchangeable, and playing RFAs over the longterm signed guys is a questionable move if both are going to produce similarly - which I believe they may.

I have said it several times - the RFAs are only secondary options *if* the signed guys are healthy and producing. If either of those are not the case, then the RFAs should be implemented into those roles regardless of contract status. It is pretty normal practice for most teams and makes perfect sense if it isn't worded in a negative fashion

 

[Old Navy Goat]

If Mitts puts up 80+ as a 25yo C he turns into a very valuable trading chip if you can't sign him to a reasonable deal. It's hardly a worse case scenario

 

[Dingo44]

The only person deciding on who plays what position and on what line is Granato but I do appreciate all the passion.

 

[Irie]

If Mitts puts up 80+ as a 25yo C he turns into a very valuable trading chip if you can't sign him to a reasonable deal. It's hardly a worse case scenario

On a one year 8+ million arbitration award with a history of far lower production?I think the return would be quite underwhelming.

I would rather have Mitts signed at 5x5 than what he returns in that scenario.

He's great depth and very versatile and he fits really well in the lockerroom. And then if he puts up those numbers the following season, he'd be worth far more on that contract....

 

[Old Navy Goat]

I would think that front offices would see and appreciate his upward trajectory when given real opportunity. If he repeats last year's second half, he cements his standing as a 1B / 2A and at his age he's a valuable commodity

 

[joshjull]

If we were only trying to make sense of data without actual observation, then your points would be important, but we are talking about watching the games and seeing Thompson's line getting their teeth kicked in and dominated the majority of shifts in games where oppositions glued defensive players to him.

If you insist on this nonsense and “what you saw” Then I’ll post his CF%/xGF% in those 8gms

2/26 vs Caps —-> 54%/61%
2/28 vs Jackets -> 55%/55%
3/2 vs Bruins --> 47%/40%
3/4 vs Tampa —> 40%/36%
3/6 vs Oilers —-> 60%/63%
3/7 vs Isles ——> 64%/35%
3/9 vs Stars —-> 44%/21%
3/11 vs Rags —> 57%/57%

Thats not someone who had their teeth kicked in the majority of the time. I watched those games and the numbers were what I expected.

That is what I saw. That is why I am worried, and it is my opinion that if you take Thompson off of the top line, his point totals are going to drop to below PPG.

Those 8gms are irrelevant to how Tage will do with Cozens. They're completely different situations with different matchups and challenges.

It is being proposed as a solution to increase scoring depth when the team was 3rd in the league in goals, and it is ignoring the fact that doing so will likely lead to the team getting kicked in the nuts in ten months by an arbitrator if you play an RFA in his spot.

Its proposed by Granato as a way to improve the top 6. Which can be improving consistency which the 2nd line lacked and defensive play of both (neither one was strong defensively).

When did I try to argue a narrative about Thompson being injured before? I believe today is literally the first time I have ever commented on it in these forums.

This is my Perspective - Thompson gets hurt Feb 1st and leaves the game in the 2nd period, the game before the AllStar game. He does not play in the AllStar game so that he can rest and heal up.

We are then talking about 26 days later and he had been back and playing and piling up points in the meantime. He did not seem to really be badly injured until he collided with Meier in that Devils game in March. I obviously could be wrong about how injured he was, but he was not limited in late February the way he was in April from my perspective of watching the games.

And my statement: "I don't believe he was that injured then" is just my opinion. I am not pushing some narrative and I have never even referenced the idea before. You are making mountains out of molehills here to try to create some "gotcha" moment.

Just give your take on topics instead of trying to hyper-analyze every word others post and assuming positions that are not stated - If you think Thompson was injured, great, post that. I would be more than happy to hear your position on why you think he was at the time, and if you have some solid info, you'd likely be able to convince me that I was missing something and change my mind.

Boy you really love playing the confused poster.

From your post ……. He put up some points with some outstanding efforts (which is why i question the "he was injured" narrative).

Thats what I‘m refering to. You are quite clearly saying myself and others of putting forth a “narrative” that he was playing injured. I also quite clearly stated I had no idea how injured he was.

I already talked about his injury and my thoughts on it. You ignored it. Why would I waste time repeating it. You clearly showed no interest in engaging with the topic.

But assuming some of my words mean something that is not stated or taking things out of context to debate a different topic which was never even implied is just a waste of everyone's time. Everyone here is dumber for having to read this back and forth between us.

Talk about projection.

 

[joshjull]

That is one large wall of major projecting.

Nope it’s me addressing your points.

I like Mitts. I defended him more than anyone on this board this past year in the GDT and GBU threads, and I have defended him more on the main boards than any poster that I am aware of. (There are some bat-shit crazy debates there where posters were calling him a fringe NHLer).

Cool. I’ve never said you don‘t like Mitts.

What I don't want to see is Cozens on the wing, and I'd prefer he stay in the top six - and I am passionate about that. I don't think granato plays Thompson on the wing because of reasons already mentioned, so i do not like the idea of moving Mitts to 1C at the cost of Cozens not getting top 6 center reps.

I don’t want to see Cozens on the wing either and have agreed with you multiple times he should stay at center. I also don’t know of anyone suggesting he leaves the top 6. Not sure why you even mentioned it.

I also believe it would be wise to extend Mitts before playing him at 1C *if* the team has a healthy Cozens and Thompson available. I have said this all 5 times now as to my reasoning why I felt Mitts to 1C is a bad idea.

Yes I know and I expressed my opinion on this just as many times. But you don‘t address what I post. You just put our your spin on what I said and attack me. It’s like debating a politician.

It has zero reason to do with me not liking Mitts.

Cool, I never said you didn’t like Mitts.

The other stuff in there is mostly nonsense. You are taking things out of context and saying I meant X when I did not mean any such thing. These discussions are informal and I use the phrase "I think" quite often to reinforce that I feel a certain way about an issue, but having someone analyze your every word to try to present your post as something completely different is bordering on obsession.

It’s not nonsense you just don‘t want to engage. So you resort to attacking me, meh whatever, we’ve been at it for a while .



There are no hockey or cap related issues that would prevent Mitts from centering Skinner/Tuch. But you don’t like the idea because your worried it would threaten Cozens position as one of the top 6 centers. I get that.

 

[Matt Ress]

But what if Mitts does putt up 82 on the top line between Tuch and Skinner, but can only score 50 on the 3rd line? Arbitration would be a bitch.

Dahlin is going to get paid. 10+
Power is going to get paid. 8+
Tuch is going to get paid. 9+

In 3 seasons there will be a cap reckoning. This team is likely going to have to sell off some great pieces to remain cap compliant, and it's going to really hit their odds at winning a cup.

Don't look at it as "hoping players aren't successful", because that is not at all what I am implying here. The reality is that there are a lot of top 6 pieces that are fairly interchangeable, and playing RFAs over the longterm signed guys is a questionable move if both are going to produce similarly - which I believe they may.

I have said it several times - the RFAs are only secondary options *if* the signed guys are healthy and producing. If either of those are not the case, then the RFAs should be implemented into those roles regardless of contract status. It is pretty normal practice for most teams and makes perfect sense if it isn't worded in a negative fashion

I can spin with the best of em lol. I'm not just trying to paint things negatively and yes, there needs to be a long term plan. But I highly doubt that worrying about the cap in 3 years is a driver of line combos. We can probably agree on that so the only question is if swapping guys around is the best move for on ice production. It's a big IF but we should know better in a couple months.

 

[Jim Bob]

Gauging the NHL’s Atlantic Division: Can the up-and-comers unseat the established powerhouses?

For each team, we look at who's new, who's gone and what the reasons are for optimism and concern, as well as making a bold prediction.

theathletic.com

Buffalo Sabres​

Who’s new: D Connor Clifton, D Erik Johnson, G Devon Levi

Who’s gone: G Craig Anderson, D Ilya Lyubushkin

Reason for optimism: The Sabres missed the playoffs by just one point last season despite having the youngest roster in the NHL both in terms of age and games of experience. The roster will still be young by age but will have a valuable season of experience upon which to draw. The Sabres have a stronger defensive core with the additions of Clifton and Johnson. They think Levi is the type of goalie who can be an instant upgrade even in his first full NHL season. They are already one of the best offensive teams in hockey. They only need to be an average team in terms of preventing goals in order to make another jump in the standings.

Reason for concern: Levi looked outstanding in the seven NHL games he played last season, but he’s still an unproven first-year goalie and the Sabres don’t have another proven option on the roster. Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen just completed his first full season in the NHL and struggled with consistency. Eric Comrie has mostly been a backup in his career and had two separate injuries that prevented him from proving he could be a starter last season. The main reason the Sabres missed the playoffs in 2022-23 was their inability to keep the puck out of the net. That was due to a combination of a lack of attention to detail on defense and inconsistent goaltending. The Sabres are taking a risk on a few unproven options in net.

Bold prediction: Levi handles the bulk of the starts. He might be inexperienced, but the Sabres believe he’s up to the task of being a starter in the NHL. They had him skip rookie camp to focus on competing for a job in the NHL, which shows me they’re ready to give him the biggest workload of the bunch. Their success this season could ride on how well he handles it.

— Matthew Fairburn

 

[Jim Bob]

LeBrun: Inside the NHL's intense, vicious, hilarious fantasy football wars

Who are the NHL's most intense fantasy football owners? And most annoying? Who talks the most trash? We asked stars from around the league.

theathletic.com

Sabres​

Tage Thompson, the Sabres’ goal-scoring machine, doesn’t carry the same swagger in fantasy.

“I’ve never been a big football guy, but if you live in Buffalo, you kind of have to,” said Thompson, who’s in Year 3 of his fantasy football career. “I was terrible last year. They almost kicked me out because I kept forgetting to set my lineup.”

Luckily, Thompson has some help, teaming up with blueliner Mattias Samuelsson.

“I don’t really know what I’m doing, but he does,” Thompson said. “I’m kind of piggybacking off him.

“But it’s fun. It’s just something to talk about around the locker room.”

 

[TageGod]

We are close enough to camp that I am going to retreat from thinking about line combos.

 

[SnuggaRUDE]

Personally I think this is Krebs make or break year. He's a better version of a Jost tweener, but not as good as Mitts. His problem is that the kids percolating are more dynamic so he needs to take that 3C and run with it while Quinn is out, otherwise I could see him being moved and replaced by Kozak next year

You’re right but moving him would be predicated on his salary demands. There’s plenty of room in the league for Jost+ on a cheap deal.

I like Kozak but I don’t think he has anywhere near the upside of Krebs (whom I’ve never been terribly high on).

On a one year 8+ million arbitration award with a history of far lower production?I think the return would be quite underwhelming.

I would rather have Mitts signed at 5x5 than what he returns in that scenario.

He's great depth and very versatile and he fits really well in the lockerroom. And then if he puts up those numbers the following season, he'd be worth far more on that contract....

If he puts that up as a center his value will be like Meier’s.

 

[Der Jaeger]

I still think the Sabres have the firepower to make a Pettersson type trade and not gut the team. If I'm Adams, I'm looking for that type of move.

 

[I am Bettman]

Bruins fan here, would Carlo and Swayman be enough to get Cozens in return? Willing to add more, but that seems like a solid starting point.

 

[Jim Bob]

Bruins fan here, would Carlo and Swayman be enough to get Cozens in return? Willing to add more, but that seems like a solid starting point.

No.

I do not believe Cozens is a guy that Adams would consider moving. Especially not to a division rival.

 

[SnuggaRUDE]

Bruins fan here, would Carlo and Swayman be enough to get Cozens in return? Willing to add more, but that seems like a solid starting point.

Solve a rivals cap problems and their center problems all in one go? That’s not terribly appealing.

Swayman has value though.

 

[Fjordsen]

Bruins fan here, would Carlo and Swayman be enough to get Cozens in return? Willing to add more, but that seems like a solid starting point.

Nah

 

[I am Bettman]

Solve a rivals cap problems and their center problems all in one go? That’s not terribly appealing.

Swayman has value though.

One could say the same about Boston fixing Buffalo’s d core and trading a piece like Swayman in division. What about Mittelstadt for Carlo or Swayman?

No.

I do not believe Cozens is a guy that Adams would consider moving. Especially not to a division rival.

How about Mittelstadt for one of Carlo or Swayman then?

 

[Irie]

Bruins fan here, would Carlo and Swayman be enough to get Cozens in return? Willing to add more, but that seems like a solid starting point.

31 goals and 68 point, big, fast, defensively responsible center who put up those numbers last year while he was mostly 21 years old.... and, he is signed to a great 7 year contract and wants to play for the Sabres.

You honestly do not want to know what the cost would be to pry him away from Buffalo.

 

[I am Bettman]

31 goals and 68 point, big, fast, defensively responsible center who put up those numbers last year while he was mostly 21 years old.... and, he is signed to a great 7 year contract and wants to play for the Sabres.

You honestly do not want to know what the cost would be to pry him away from Buffalo.

I wonder if a Kulich/Carlo swap would be of interest to Buffalo?

 

[Gabrielor]

I wonder if a Kulich/Carlo swap would be of interest to Buffalo?

Not at the moment.

Goaltending is the question they need to immediately answer.

 

[I am Bettman]

Not at the moment.

Goaltending is the question they need to immediately answer.

I’d be willing to give up Swayman for Kulich and a third.

 

[Gras]

I’d be willing to give up Swayman for Kulich and a third.

Adams wouldn't even include Kulich in a trade for Chychrun so i highly doubt he would do it for Carlo

 

[TageGod]

I’d be willing to give up Swayman for Kulich and a third.

Sold.

Bruins fan here, would Carlo and Swayman be enough to get Cozens in return? Willing to add more, but that seems like a solid starting point.

Not sold. I don't think boston can offer anything to pry Cozens out except Pasta.....so not happening.

 

[Jim Bob]

I’d be willing to give up Swayman for Kulich and a third.

Adams killed any Chychrun talks when the ask included Kulich or Savoie. I doubt he is willing to move one of them (or others including Benson) at this point.

They also have 5 NHL or AHL goalies. I doubt they make a trade that makes it 6.

I wonder if a Kulich/Carlo swap would be of interest to Buffalo?

The Sabres have more than enough NHL D after signing Clifton and EJohnson as UFAs. I doubt Adams makes a move to add another one.