Confirmed with Link: Ryan McLeod & Ty Tullio traded to Buffalo for Matthew Savoie

[ottsabrefan]

It happens to teams all the time.

Maybe with lower level “top prospects”. This was a clear overpay. I agree it improves the Sabres for this year and maybe next, but that is likely the break even in this trade.

 

[Beerz]

Maybe with lower level “top prospects”. This was a clear overpay. I agree it improves the Sabres for this year and maybe next, but that is likely the break even in this trade.

I mean I agree it's an overpay... but you have to take risks to move forward.

 

[ValJamesDuex]

My guess would be Nazar, but it could have been Ostlund, or it could have referenced Savoie since Kasper was just off the board.

I think it was Lekkerimaki from memory

 

[Deep Blue Metallic]

8 of his 26 5v5 points came with Draisaitl in 186:12 of playing together while 18 of 26 came away from Draisaitl in 786:06. The remaining 4 points were 2 shorthanded, 1 PP, and 1 empty net (goal).

His P/60 5v5 with Drai was 2.58
His P/60 5v5 without Drai was 1.37

Thanks. Much as expected. Appreciate your posts in here.

What's your take on Tullio - strictly AHL fodder, or some bottom-6 NHL potential?

 

[McFlyingV]

Thanks. Much as expected. Appreciate your posts in here.

What's your take on Tullio - strictly AHL fodder, or some bottom-6 NHL potential?

Had high hopes for Tullio early in his development because he's a high motor player with some skill. At his size he's unfortunately fighting against the odds because for every player like him that makes it theres about 20-30 who don't. I think he battled injuries last year which definitely prevented him from taking another step in his development, and Bakersfield has limited offensive skill to begin with.

I'd say his ceiling is probably a 3rd line energy guy who can every once in a while pot some offence with his mix of speed and skill. That said I think the likelihood he plays more than 100 NHL games is probably less than 5%. He's a long shot, but there's a quality skillset there if he can find good health and put it together.

 

[Paxon]

I mean I agree it's an overpay... but you have to take risks to move forward.

Right. They're actually building a coherent team this off-season in the moves that have been made. Not every move has to look great in hindsight so long as the moves collectively shape the roster. If Savoie were the only strong forward prospects we had this would be a different conversation but that's not the case.

This is what "doing something" looks like. Probably the only two moves anyone would even advocate for now are acquiring a top 6 winger and moving Joker out for someone seen as a better fit, neither of which are screaming needs the way reshaping the bottom 6 was. They have a lot of ammo to make any kind of move they want and would still have a pipeline after.

 

[ottsabrefan]

I think it's a pretty small percentage of people who had Savoie as the top prospect. More to the point, I don't think anyone would argue he was the clearcut top prospect. There are a few guys right there with each other, not to mention a few not too far below, which is why trading him in theory is not a big deal.

That’s fair. I get that. And as I said, IMO, it the the wrong prospect. I would have traded Kulich way before him. I understand the need to overpay and the need to save Adams job, I just think they traded the wrong prospect and once again it will be another former Sabre lighting up the league in a poor asset management decision.

 

[Chainshot]

8 of his 26 5v5 points came with Draisaitl in 186:12 of playing together while 18 of 26 came away from Draisaitl in 786:06. The remaining 4 points were 2 shorthanded, 1 PP, and 1 empty net (goal).

His P/60 5v5 with Drai was 2.58
His P/60 5v5 without Drai was 1.37

Appreciate that breakdown.

 

[Paxon]

That’s fair. I get that. And as I said, IMO, it the the wrong prospect. I would have traded Kulich way before him. I understand the need to overpay and the need to save Adams job, I just think they traded the wrong prospect and once again it will be another former Sabre lighting up the league in a poor asset management decision.

Reasonable take. The upshot is whichever similar-level prospect it was of course a bunch of people would feel that way. The Sabres seem to not share your view so we just have to hope they are right. That said, even if Savoie becomes great it doesn't kill us, especially if, say, Kulich or whoever also does. I'd bet the farm Quinn and Benson will be better than Savoie at this point. I wouldn't have said that a couple years ago but it seems pretty clear now. We are in great shape as far as young wingers go.

 

[McFlyingV]

Appreciate that breakdown.

No problem. For the record I think McLeod could find a home on a PP2. He's a good puck carrier for zone entries, and he a better offensive player when he has time and space. He put up some points in 2021-22 on our 2nd unit, but the 2nd unit has mostly just been give the tail end 20-30 seconds here. This will probably change with the Henrique+Skinner+Arvidsson additions. McLeod didn't have much to work with either in those limited minutes so its hard to judge his PP potential.

 

[RefsIdeas]

In a way, this is like being on the other end of the Gaustad for a first trade.

 

[ottsabrefan]

Reasonable take. The upshot is whichever similar-level prospect it was of course a bunch of people would feel that way. The Sabres seem to not share your view so we just have to hope they are right. That said, even if Savoie becomes great it doesn't kill us, especially if, say, Kulich or whoever also does. I'd bet the farm Quinn and Benson will be better than Savoie at this point. I wouldn't have said that a couple years ago but it seems pretty clear now. We are in great shape as far as young wingers go.

I agree with all your points. And you are right, everyone has their favourites and mine was Savoie. I hope the Sabres know what they are doing, time will tell. I also have Quinn and Benson above Savoie but I also view those two as two of the top three Sabres forwards in a year or two, so to me that wasn’t the comp.

 

[Deep Blue Metallic]

Lance usually has a pretty solid take. (OT - Think he's unrealistically optimistic about Helenius' development path.)

 

[Ace]

This is along the lines of something I said yesterday. Breaking in young forwards alongside a responsible player in his prime sounds a lot better than breaking them in alongside each other. Or, honestly, Krebs who hasn’t figured much out yet himself

 

[Paxon]

I agree with all your points. And you are right, everyone has their favourites and mine was Savoie. I hope the Sabres know what they are doing, time will tell. I also have Quinn and Benson above Savoie but I also view those two as two of the top three Sabres forwards in a year or two, so to me that wasn’t the comp.

Re: Benson and Quinn, I didn't mean to bring them up as comparisons, just as an illustration of how good we are in the wing position going forward. Quinn and Benson, Peterka, and then all the guys around and below Savoie's prospect level, with Quinn and Benson very likely to be very good and better than Savoie will be. So, even if they traded the wrong guy from that grouping, it won't necessarily be that painful. We will probably still wind up with a legit top 6 winger to add to what's already on the roster, maybe more.

 

[Beerz]

Lance usually has a pretty solid take. (OT - Think he's unrealistically optimistic about Helenius' development path.)

Yeah..was surprised he thought Helenius will be in Rochester next year

 

[Ace]

Lance usually has a pretty solid take. (OT - Think he's unrealistically optimistic about Helenius' development path.)

What did he say about Helenius. Because if it’s that he’s much closer to ready than people think I agree with it. It’s a similar discussion to the Benson thing. What keeps young players out of the NHL…the things they need to develop away from the puck…those were Benson’s strengths and he wasn’t going to learn how to do it as the most talented offensive player in juniors. Helenius is different because he can play anywhere. So he can learn more as a pro in either pro league here or in Finland. But the larger point about responding isn’t much different.

 

[Ace]

Yeah..was surprised he thought Helenius will be in Rochester next year

He’s already spent two years as a pro. He’s also more sturdy built than say, Ostlund at the draft. He’s kind of right now at 18 where Ostlund is at 20. With a lot more pro games experience and a better pro frame. Kind of like Kulich coming over at 18 only he’s already doing the things they want Kulich to learn there.

 

[Deep Blue Metallic]

What did he say about Helenius. Because if it’s that he’s much closer to ready than people think I agree with it. It’s a similar discussion to the Benson thing. What keeps young players out of the NHL…the things they need to develop away from the puck…those were Benson’s strengths and he wasn’t going to learn how to do it as the most talented offensive player in juniors. Helenius is different because he can play anywhere. So he can learn more as a pro in either pro league here or in Finland. But the larger point about responding isn’t much different.

Claims Helenius is likely to be in Rochester this season. Starting at 0:55. At 5:02 he claims Helenius could be NHL ready in 2025/26.

Not saying he's flat-out wrong, but that certainly isn't the consensus around here.

 

[Fjordy]

Lance usually has a pretty solid take. (OT - Think he's unrealistically optimistic about Helenius' development path.)

Why not. Maybe the sooner the better. They will be able to control his development and Helenius will get used to the smaller ice and different speeds faster.

 

[Deep Blue Metallic]

He’s already spent two years as a pro. He’s also more sturdy built than say, Ostlund at the draft. He’s kind of right now at 18 where Ostlund is at 20. With a lot more pro games experience and a better pro frame. Kind of like Kulich coming over at 18 only he’s already doing the things they want Kulich to learn there.

Why not. Maybe the sooner the better. They will be able to control his development and Helenius will get used to the smaller ice and different speeds faster.

I was very skeptical about playing Kulich in the AHL, instead of starting his North American hockey career in Charlottetown (iirc). That worked out much better than I expected. Maybe Helenius can pull it off too.

Logjams at forward in both Buffalo and Rochester.

There has to be another trade coming.

 

[Gras]

I don’t think any GM would say Savoie had 5 times the value of McLeod. Maybe like you spent 15 dollars on parking because you wanted to get to the game on time instead of 10 which would have made you late. You aren’t happy you paid 15, but at the end of the day you made it to the game on time


We need to make the damn playoffs. This move for this season gives us a better chance than what we had with Savoie.

The proper analogy is you have a $50 Scratch-off lottery ticket where if you match 3 numbers and you've already scratched off 1 and see the prize below is $500, but instead of scratching the rest you sell the ticket for $20.

 

[CowbellConray]

I think this move does help us make the playoffs. Is McLeod better than Savoie long-term though?

What’s our long-term goal?

This feels like a move a cup contender would make to find that “one missing piece”. Not a team that’ll get throttled in the first round.

Whether right or wrong, for this front office making the playoffs is the ONLY goal on the board

 

[CowbellConray]

The value between the 2 is more than the "5 dollars" you proposed. And if it was parking for a sabres game either way you overpaid...

Plus you ignored the last 2/3 of what I said...

Idk that the value really is more than 1.5 that of McLeod. If the return from EDM was McLeod and their 2nd, I’d consider that fair. And if you told me we could have traded two seconds for McLeod I would have in an heartbeat.

I put Savoie as a guy who likely projects as a middle six winger. Slight top line chance. McLeod is a confirmed third line center. I think it’s a slight overpay, but I don’t think it’s anywhere close to the 5 to 1 you said.

I ignored the rest because I was so shocked at what you started your post with

 

[CowbellConray]

The proper analogy is you have a $50 Scratch-off lottery ticket where if you match 3 numbers and you've already scratched off 1 and see the prize below is $500, but instead of scratching the rest you sell the ticket for $20.

That’s crazy. Savoie has maybe a 2% chance of being a ppg top line center. This isn’t Boston trading Thornton or Seguin. I like Savoie, but i put him at likely a second line winger.

We took a slight value drop in a vacuum to fill a need with a confirmed resource.