Prospect Info: Ryan Johnson, D, 2019 #31 overall: Signed, Rochester (AHL), Recalled 12/5/24

[SnuggaRUDE]

The early postings here with people wondering where forwards were going to come from is entertaining.

 

[Doug Prishpreed]

It would be but Johnson was a first round pick

1st round picks have a 94% chance of playing in the NHL.

Maybe your expectations are too low?

Look at the last 20 players picked at 32. They’re a crapshoot at best, and tend to never play more than 100 NHL games, if they make the pros at all.

 

[toddkaz]

Look at the last 20 players picked at 32. They’re a crapshoot at best, and tend to never play more than 100 NHL games, if they make the pros at all.

You want to play the statistics then thats the statistics 94% chance of making the NHL if drafted in the first round.

You want to call him a second round pick when he is not. He falls into the first round category.

Here, this will help you understand better.

What Percentage of NHL Draft Picks Make It to the NHL? - Big Shot Hockey

The NHL is an elite club and it's a significant achievement to even get drafted by a team — but it's a whole other story to end up playing in your first NHL

bshockey.com

 

[Gras]

Look at the last 20 players picked at 32. They’re a crapshoot at best, and tend to never play more than 100 NHL games, if they make the pros at all.

Good thing he was picked at 31.

 

[Dirty Dog]

You want to play the statistics then thats the statistics 94% chance of making the NHL if drafted in the first round.

You want to call him a second round pick when he is not. He falls into the first round category.

Here, this will help you understand better.

What Percentage of NHL Draft Picks Make It to the NHL? - Big Shot Hockey

The NHL is an elite club and it's a significant achievement to even get drafted by a team — but it's a whole other story to end up playing in your first NHL

bshockey.com

I don’t know, thats not how stats really work though. Breaking it entire rounds is a bit misleading when talking about someone picked at the end of a round.

Digging deeper, I don’t think you’ll see a significant difference between picks 30-33 based on an arbitrary divide between first and second rounders

But I’m with you. Someone picked that high probably has a pretty good chance of making it in some capacity

 

[Doug Prishpreed]

Good thing he was picked at 31.

Same difference. The same point applies to the 30th pick too.

 

[Djp]

It would be but Johnson was a first round pick

1st round picks have a 94% chance of playing in the NHL.

Maybe your expectations are too low?

Top 20 picks generally have had nhl careers.

those drafted 25-35 are very hit and miss. Sure because they were picked higher they will get chances/ call ups a 7 th rounder does not get. Getting to 200 games is well under 50%

Couple years earlier and it would have been a 2nd round pick.

A couple years earlier Buffalo would have picked higher……

 

[BritSabre]

If I need to talk myself around to him leaving, is he a left handed Mark Pysyk?

 

[Zman5778]

If I need to talk myself around to him leaving, is he a left handed Mark Pysyk?

Pysyk is kinda his baseline. He could and should become better than Pisser.......but it's possible he doesn't become more.

 

[Der Jaeger]

Gotcha

The Sabres really need to do a better job identifying potential problems with signing guys when they make their draft selections.

If he chooses not to sign, how many times would this be for us?

I think Petersen is the only notable NCAA to not sign with the Sabres. Maybe the only one.

 

[DustyZ]

I think Petersen is the only notable NCAA to not sign with the Sabres. Maybe the only one.

Not sure why I was thinking there were others. Thanks

 

[Gabrielor]

Not sure why I was thinking there were others. Thanks

Perhaps because of Vesey and the Tim Murray saga.

 

[Jim Bob]

I think Petersen is the only notable NCAA to not sign with the Sabres. Maybe the only one.

I think he is the only guy that the Sabres wanted to sign and he decided to walk. At least of note lately.

The fact that the Sabres could have two guys go that route this upcoming off season is also likely a factor.

And if Johnson does sign this off season, he would have taken the Linus Weissbach path by playing four years of NCAA hockey and then signing with Buffalo when they could have signed anywhere.

 

[Chainshot]

I think he is the only guy that the Sabres wanted to sign and he decided to walk. At least of note lately.

The fact that the Sabres could have two guys go that route this upcoming off season is also likely a factor.

And if Johnson does sign this off season, he would have taken the Linus Weissbach path by playing four years of NCAA hockey and then signing with Buffalo when they could have signed anywhere.

Weissbach did it as did Fitzgerald.

 

[tsujimoto74]

The early postings here with people wondering where forwards were going to come from is entertaining.

Kind of exemplifies why you don't draft for need in the NHL. Needs change rapidly. Prospects take years.

 

[Jim Bob]

For what it's worth. I would be pleasantly surprised if Johnson were to sign here.

 

[Zman5778]

For what it's worth. I would be pleasantly surprised if Johnson were to sign here.

Wait. I'm agreeing with Chad D??

Uh oh. I don't know how to feel about this.

 

[CaliSabresfan24]

Idk why people are completely sold on the idea that he's going to free agency... I really don't see why he wouldn't sign with us. He'll have a good chance of taking someone's spot on the bottom pair and get decent playing time. The guy doesn't seem full of himself and did say he intents to sign at prospects camp..

My only worry is that Lance (who I feel has real connections) Said Johnson is as good as gone on maintenance day

 

[Beerz]

Idk why people are completely sold on the idea that he's going to free agency... I really don't see why he wouldn't sign with us. He'll have a good chance of taking someone's spot on the bottom pair and get decent playing time. The guy doesn't seem full of himself and did say he intents to sign at prospects camp..

My only worry is that Lance (who I feel has real connections) Said Johnson is as good as gone on maintenance day

I still have only heard him say that about Portillo .. not Johnson

 

[CaliSabresfan24]

I still have only heard him say that about Portillo .. not Johnson

I know he for sure said that about Portillo but I thought he said that about Johnson also but based off this tweet last week I must be wrong

 

[Doug Prishpreed]

Idk why people are completely sold on the idea that he's going to free agency... I really don't see why he wouldn't sign with us. He'll have a good chance of taking someone's spot on the bottom pair and get decent playing time. The guy doesn't seem full of himself and did say he intents to sign at prospects camp..

My only worry is that Lance (who I feel has real connections) Said Johnson is as good as gone on maintenance day

That's the reason why in my case. I have no reason not to believe Lance. That said, he already admitted he was wrong once today...

 

[Doug Prishpreed]

I still have only heard him say that about Portillo .. not Johnson

He said it on the podcast, but even the next day declined to make that opinion official on twitter, so it seemed like more of a gut feel for him...which makes sense because he's developed a good feel for the front office.

 

[Jim Bob]

Idk why people are completely sold on the idea that he's going to free agency... I really don't see why he wouldn't sign with us. He'll have a good chance of taking someone's spot on the bottom pair and get decent playing time. The guy doesn't seem full of himself and did say he intents to sign at prospects camp..

My only worry is that Lance (who I feel has real connections) Said Johnson is as good as gone on maintenance day

I am not completely sold on him going to free agency.

I think it is a coin flip because there are good reasons for him to sign here and there are good reasons for him to sign elsewhere.

Having Dahlin, Power, and Samuelsson as locked in core LHD for the foreseeable future could be viewed as a big negative to signing in Buffalo as opposed to elsewhere. And he might want to be closer to his SoCal home, as well.

If he gets traded as a piece of a deal, I will read that as Adams felt like he was a goner and he was treating him like a late '24 2nd round pick and not a real defensive prospect option for the Sabres.

 

[Chainshot]

Just as an aside... again... about the comments about going to a SoCal destination reminds me of every time someone talks about a player "coming home to the Toronto area".

Anaheim is stocked with LD and RD prospects, including his partner LaCombe (who is also a senior who hasn't signed) and they have Drysdale on the team with both Zellweger and Mintyukov coming to even discounting LaCombe. The Kings are stocked with RD prospects over LD prospects even after trading one of his other teammates (Faber) and there is no clear path to this mystical PP time with Doughty there as PP1 QB and have two established younger LD in Anderson and Bjornfort. There isn't PP time there either.

The Coyotes? Maybe there, but they also have two very good PP options at the moment as well as a bunch of prospect D. San Jose...? Karlsson isn't going anywhere and they have a lack of depth among their prospect pool right now. Maybe there?

It was lazy at the outset, it's been lazy to keep repeating it with no indication that it's where he winds up.

 

[Jim Bob]

Just as an aside... again... about the comments about going to a SoCal destination reminds me of every time someone talks about a player "coming home to the Toronto area".

Anaheim is stocked with LD and RD prospects, including his partner LaCombe (who is also a senior who hasn't signed) and they have Drysdale on the team with both Zellweger and Mintyukov coming to even discounting LaCombe. The Kings are stocked with RD prospects over LD prospects even after trading one of his other teammates (Faber) and there is no clear path to this mystical PP time with Doughty there as PP1 QB and have two established younger LD in Anderson and Bjornfort. There isn't PP time there either.

The Coyotes? Maybe there, but they also have two very good PP options at the moment as well as a bunch of prospect D. San Jose...? Karlsson isn't going anywhere and they have a lack of depth among their prospect pool right now. Maybe there?

It was lazy at the outset, it's been lazy to keep repeating it with no indication that it's where he winds up.

Jeff Skinner wanted to be closer to home despite the Sabres not being a competitive team at the time.

The being closer to home thing could be overblown. Or maybe it isn't. Just like some guys would want to play for their dad and others wouldn't.

I think there is a lot of stuff with Johnson that we have no idea about. And what will motivate him to sign in Buffalo or elsewhere is all guesswork for us.

Maybe he really like the Twin Cities area and signs with the Wild...