Fjordy
Soul Dancing in the Dark
- Jun 20, 2018
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Prospect Info: Ryan Johnson, D, 2019 #31 overall: Signed, Rochester (AHL), Recalled 12/5/24
- Thread starter LastWordArmy
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Well if the season is essentially over you just make the easiest sitch for him, just so he signs, with the understanding that if he isn't ready for the NHL he spends the 23/24 in Rochester. And then Pilut is your 3LHD next season or some veteran UFA.
Gabrielor
Registered User
Jim Bob
RIP RJ
Feels like he's done in Buffalo. To be honest, who cares. He's a decent player but no more than a 4 or 5 in the NHL. For sure a cheap asset on an entry-level deal but that's life.
Gabrielor
Registered User
Like I keep saying, I'll trust Johnson at his word. He said his goal was to sign eventually (I know he didn't say here, and it was vague enough that it can be picked apart, I'll still trust him)
Djp
Registered User
Ace
Registered User
- Oct 29, 2015
- 26,151
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I can't figure out what people are so worried about here. The Sabres have a great pitch -- come to Buffalo and be our Sergachev. Learn as much as you can from Ras and OP. Dominate the third-pairing matchups with an up-and-coming team. Fight for and maybe win a Cup, then parlay it into a good bridge and $50M UFA deal.
He'd be a complete idiot to turn that deal down.
StrompTroller
Registered User
Hed be within his rights to then ask us to compare our forward group and who our 1G are to possibly make that a comparison in the first place and I wouldn't blame him. The hedman/mcd/cernak/serv vs dahlin/power/Sammy pitch barely holds water as is....
But I know what you're saying. I just don't know thats the sales pitch id go with. Atm I don't think we have a forward on our roster better than Stamkos or point. Hedman would be voted ahead of dahlin by all non sabres fans and vasy is better than if we put Craig and Comrie in net together.
Gabrielor
Registered User
We have almost no card to play. Burn a year of entry-level deal, I guess. Maybe a big bonus could get it done. But he's so close to being a free agent when he can shop the league.
He's going to be Sergachev. LOL.
We seem to need to go over this every other page on this thread. Burning a year of ELC has significant value.
dotcommunism
Moderator
- Aug 16, 2007
- 5,195
- 3,396
It's based on who holds the rights. I'm not sure why this even came up as a question, the CBA wording doesn't look particularly ambiguous to me.
8.3 Compensatory Draft Selections.
[...]
(b) In the event a Club loses its draft rights to an Unsigned Draft Choice drafted in the first round of the Entry Draft (except as a result of failing to tender a required Bona Fide Offer (as defined below)), who (i) is again eligible for the Entry Draft, (ii) becomes an Unrestricted Free Agent, or (iii) dies, a Compensatory Draft Selection shall automatically be granted to that Club, which Compensatory Draft Selection shall be the same numerical choice in the second round in the Entry Draft immediately following the date the Club loses such rights.
By way of example, if a Club cannot sign the third pick in the first round, it will receive the third pick in the second round as compensation.
There is nothing there about being the original drafting team. It applies to whoever loses the rights to the player for any of the listed reasons.
Zman5778
Moderator
Come burn a year of your ELC and play big minutes with Power, who's making everybody better, on a team that is clearly on the upswing.
Then if you and Power form the same sympatico that Dahlin and Samuelsson has, you get paid sooner rather than later.
No cards at all.
Pretty much all he could say at the time.
It’s all going to come down to picking his destination vs burning a year of his ELC.
Maybe a promising Sabres season convinces him to sign here.
dotcommunism
Moderator
- Aug 16, 2007
- 5,195
- 3,396
Value? Certainly. Significant value? That I'm not so sure about.
If he signs at the end of this season, he'll get his signing bonus and a few game checks. He'd then become one of those not-quite-RFA players, who don't have enough professional experience to become a full-fledged RFA in the 2024 off-season, then be eligible to be a real RFA in the 2025 off-season, then UFA eligible in 2029.
If he waits until the off-season to sign (with Buffalo or elsewhere), he of course doesn't get a signing bonus or any game checks for this season. He'd then be under contract for two seasons, becoming an RFA in 2025, and similarly be UFA eligible in 2029.
Let's assume, for the sake of argument, that in the case where he does sign at the end of the season and gets some NHL time this year, that next year he spends mostly in the AHL, or going back and forth, and ends up having to take a QO in the 2024 off-season. For this purpose, we'll also assume that he signs a max (not counting performance bonuses) ELC. So he'd have a $92.5k signing bonus for the end of this season, and one for next season as well. He'd get a $70k minor league salary next season. His QO for the following season would be for $874k, and if he has to accept his QO, it'll be a two-way deal probably with the same $70k minor league salary (that's what happened with Mittelstadt when he had to take his QO under identical circumstances).
So, he'd get $185k in signing bonuses, $70k baseline (since that's his minor league salary) next season and the season after that, and an additional ~$4.4k per day on the roster to finish this season, ~$4k per day on the roster next season, and ~$4.2k per day on the roster the season after that. So, through the 2025 off-season, when he'd become a full-fledged RFA, that would give him 325k + 4.4k x (days on roster 22-23) + 4k x (days on roster 23-24) + 4.2k x (days on roster 24-25)
If he were to sign during the off-season, then the numbers would look as follows. Again, let's assume that he signs a max ELC (not counting performance bonuses). He would have his $92.5k signing bonus for next season, and the same for the following season. He'd get his $70k in minor league salary for 23-24 and 24-25, with an additional ~$4k per nhl game in each of those seasons. So he'd get 325k + 4k x (days on roster 23-24) + 4k x (days on roster 24-25)
So, looking at the money in this scenario, he'd get an additional 4.4k for every day he's on the roster to finish this season, plus an additional $200 (closer to $250 actually) for every day he's on the roster in the 24-25 season. If Minnesota makes the tournament this year, that would be an absolute maximum of 21 days he could spend on the NHL roster this season, which could net him up to an additional $92k. Also, if he were to spend every day of the 24-25 season on the NHL roster, that additional $250 per day would total about about $47k (compared to if he were on the roster every day on his ELC). So overall, in this scenario where Johnson is mostly a non-factor next season, he would net at most $139k in additional money by leaving early.
Now, $139k is quite a significant amount for you and me, but I'm not sure it's something that would move the needle here.
That said, the big advantage if Johnson were to sign at the end of the season comes if he has a big breakout season next year. Then he wouldn't be settling for a QO in the 2024 off-season, he'd be in line for a legitimate extension coming off a strong rookie season. But for that to happen, he would have to find himself in a situation where he would get the opportunity to have that breakout season rather than being buried in the AHL, or otherwise low on the depth chart. Does he see that opportunity here with Buffalo? I don't know. But if he doesn't, then I think the extra money he could make by signing early will prove little incentive.
In short, I think how he sees his long term outlook on the team's depth chart is going to be the primary factor on whether he chooses to sign here or not. If he doesn't think that he'll get the opportunity here that he wants, then signing here to finish the season loses the major point in its favor (the ability to sign an extension sooner), and the additional money won't make up the difference.
Selanne00008
Registered User
Any news? Is he good? Waste of a trade piece we got from ROR, or we still think he will sign?
Thank god Tage was a home run.
Thank god Tage was a home run.
Good middle pair defenseman who is on one of the better teams in the NCAA so signing likely won't happen until after mid-April when the NCAA championship completes. B10N game commentary have talked about him going to Buffalo as a part of their future, same with Peacock broadcasts. No one around the team has said anything about him, or Lacombe, or Faber who are all in the same category as unsigned senior high draftees going anywhere other than the teams that have drafted them.
So now we can have 4 more pages of posts about draft rules.
Gabrielor
Registered User
Bendium
Registered User
- Oct 18, 2019
- 1,907
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I actually think that the Sabers are a good fit and opportunity for him. He is not going to be on the power play wherever he goes. So, neither Power nor Dahlin are blocking his opportunities. Unless we get a top 4 defenseman before the trade deadline, you will be able to guarantee him 3rd line NHL role to start next year, knowing that if he plays well enough, the second pair spot next to Power is still open. This being a young team culture and a good development coaching staff, should make Buffalo a very good option to get his career going. Plus he can burn a contract year with us.
Snippit
Registered User
- Dec 5, 2012
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He's on the middle pairing in Minnesota? Or that's how you project him in the NHL?Good middle pair defenseman who is on one of the better teams in the NCAA so signing likely won't happen until after mid-April when the NCAA championship completes. B10N game commentary have talked about him going to Buffalo as a part of their future, same with Peacock broadcasts. No one around the team has said anything about him, or Lacombe, or Faber who are all in the same category as unsigned senior high draftees going anywhere other than the teams that have drafted them.
So now we can have 4 more pages of posts about draft rules.
He's part of the Minnesota "big three" and mostly he's LaCombe's cover but Motzko rotates guys in and out situationally so sometimes he's been out with Faber. I could see him being a 2nd pairing type guy in the NHL when he's ready but he's a 4 if we're talking about offensive impacts. Faber gets a lot of Thomas as his partner of late.
Also, this:
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