Prospect Info: Ryan Johnson, D, 2019 #31 overall: Signed, Rochester (AHL), Recalled 12/5/24

[Chainshot]

I still can’t imagine him signing here. He’s locked out of the top 3 long term. He will likely rarely get power play time here, which is key to getting higher salary on his 2nd and 3rd contracts. If you ignore market desirability entirely, going to a place with 2 1st overall d-men under 23. Maybe I’ll be surprised. But given an opportunity to go to any market or situation or here, I have to think the field might win out.

It's been pointed out - repeatedly - that he doesn't draw PP time on his collegiate team and almost every team in the league have players who have burned up their development leagues offensively who would be ahead of him in a PP depth chart.

 

[Nikolajs Sillers]

Yeah, if he's actually signing there's no way I'd trade him....he's exactly what we're looking for and cost zero assets to add him.

If

 

[DustyZ]

yeah, it is unfortunate.

It is sad. There is a small contingent of posters on this board who are not about rooting for the kids and hoping to see them succeed and grow into good players, but are always looking to point fingers and find someone to blame for all of he team's misfortune.

Often it does not matter at all if they were responsible for goals against, just the fact they were on the ice is enough for them to find fault. When everyone plays well, they lay into the GM, because there has to be someone to bitch about every day...

I can't speak for the entire fan base, but my guess is that they've been waiting for the team to grow into a legitimate Stanley Cup contender for quite some time now, while other teams seem to find it not so incredibly difficult.

Does this mean we don't root for the team? Of course it doesn't.

 

[flashsabre]

So i guess only a handful of teams in the league are actually trying to be good?

Look around the league.

Florida is dressing Mahura. Washington is dressing Matt Irwin (remember him?) Rangers are going with Harpur. Isles with Aho, etc.

Seriously. Look around the league. Bryson would be right there competing for a spot on 75% of teams, and if Buffalo waived him, he'd be claimed in a heartbeat.

Just because he doesn't have top 4 potential does not mean he is not a NHL player. Having top 4 guys in your bottom pairing is extremely rare, and trading for one to play 12-13 minutes a night is not a wise use of assets.

Is Bryson the ideal bottom pairing for this team? Of course not. But to say he is not an NHL player while looking around the league is just ignorant.

The realistic chances of Johnson making the jump from college and outplaying Bryson are extremely slim. Those are the facts.

Yep. I get the same feeling when everyone wants to replace Joker with a “real number 4” dman. There are not a lot of teams with number 4 dmen better then Joker. The NHL is a forwards league right now. D and goalie depth around the league is really shallow.

 

[debaser66]

I still can’t imagine him signing here. He’s locked out of the top 3 long term. He will likely rarely get power play time here, which is key to getting higher salary on his 2nd and 3rd contracts. If you ignore market desirability entirely, going to a place with 2 1st overall d-men under 23. Maybe I’ll be surprised. But given an opportunity to go to any market or situation or here, I have to think the field might win out.

not sure he is the kind of D that will get PP nomatter the team. he s not a top pairing D nor hugely offensively gifted

 

[TehDoak]

It's been pointed out - repeatedly - that he doesn't draw PP time on his collegiate team and almost every team in the league have players who have burned up their development leagues offensively who would be ahead of him in a PP depth chart.

not sure he is the kind of D that will get PP nomatter the team. he s not a top pairing D nor hugely offensively gifted

There is difference between ‘having players ahead of him’ and having two 1st overall picks under 23 ahead of him. In all aspects, more than just PP time. With Samuelsson on a 7 year deal, it’s unlikely he’ll get top 4 ice time while he’s a Sabre. Lots more opportunity elsewhere. It’s certainly not impossible he signs, I will just be surprised.

 

[Irie]

There is difference between ‘having players ahead of him’ and having two 1st overall picks under 23 ahead of him. In all aspects, more than just PP time. With Samuelsson on a 7 year deal, it’s unlikely he’ll get top 4 ice time while he’s a Sabre. Lots more opportunity elsewhere. It’s certainly not impossible he signs, I will just be surprised.

A player in Johnson's position should not be worried about top four opportunities years from now. WIth the current turnover in NHL teams, there is a good chance he won't play solely on one club until he is UFA at 27.

What Johnson should be looking at is where can he draw some bottom pairing minutes/7th D duty to get a chance to play in the NHL, and make 800-900k a year instead of 60-70k in the AHL, while getting a chance to prove himself an NHL talent.

 

[TehDoak]

A player in Johnson's position should not be worried about top four opportunities years from now. WIth the current turnover in NHL teams, there is a good chance he won't play solely on one club until he is UFA at 27.

What Johnson should be looking at is where can he draw some bottom pairing minutes/7th D duty to get a chance to play in the NHL, and make 800-900k a year instead of 60-70k in the AHL, while getting a chance to prove himself an NHL talent.

....he's a former 1st round pick who will have multiple opportunities to pick from if he goes to UFA.

He's not a 5th rounder who might be a marginal d-man. He will go where he has the best opportunity to get NHL minutes.

 

[HogtownSabresfan]

This is a dumb question but isn't there a way to financially incentivize these college kids but just paying the majority of that first contract for $925 K in bonus money? Or is it a case of not wanting to set a precedent?

 

[Jim Bob]

This is a dumb question but isn't there a way to financially incentivize these college kids but just paying the majority of that first contract for $925 K in bonus money? Or is it a case of not wanting to set a precedent?

I believe that there isn't that kind of leeway in ELCs.

But, @dotcommunism would give the most informed answer to that question.

 

[Dirty Dog]

....he's a former 1st round pick who will have multiple opportunities to pick from if he goes to UFA.

He's not a 5th rounder who might be a marginal d-man. He will go where he has the best opportunity to get NHL minutes.

Right. Which we can give him. Plus we are great at developing young players and a team on the rise.

You changed the goal posts to a team that can give him minutes from a team where he can get PP time and major minutes down the road.

 

[Jim Bob]

Right. Which we can give him. Plus we are great at developing young players and a team on the rise.

You changed the goal posts to a team that can give him minutes from a team where he can get PP time and major minutes down the road.

There are pros and cons for Johnson with regards to signing with the Sabres versus a boatload of other teams throughout the NHL.

The Sabres front office has way more information on what Johnson is thinking with regards to signing with the Sabres versus testing FA.

If the Sabres use Johnson as a trade piece ahead of the TDL, I am going to assume that Johnson told the Sabres he was leaning towards testing FA. If they keep him, I am going to hope that means that they have confidence that he will sign once the Gophers season is over.

I can see it going either way at this point.

 

[dotcommunism]

This is a dumb question but isn't there a way to financially incentivize these college kids but just paying the majority of that first contract for $925 K in bonus money? Or is it a case of not wanting to set a precedent?

I believe that there isn't that kind of leeway in ELCs.

But, @dotcommunism would give the most informed answer to that question.

Right, there are caps on how much of an ELC can be signing bonus (10% of the salary).
In practice, if Johnson signs to close out the season, the vast majority of his year 1 salary would be signing bonuses, as he would be unable to achieve anywhere close to his full paragraph 1 salary due to how little of the season would remain. However, how much he can earn as a signing bonus is still capped at 10% of his total salary (even if at the time of signing that salary is unearnable).

The only thing the Sabres can offer that other teams cannot is the ability to start his ELC this year, and that's something that could have value, but ultimately will most likely end up making little difference.

 

[old kummelweck]

This is a dumb question but isn't there a way to financially incentivize these college kids but just paying the majority of that first contract for $925 K in bonus money? Or is it a case of not wanting to set a precedent?

They incentive is finding a team that wont leave them in the AHL too long. I get why Johnsson is considering exploring UFA.

 

[TehDoak]

There are pros and cons for Johnson with regards to signing with the Sabres versus a boatload of other teams throughout the NHL.

The Sabres front office has way more information on what Johnson is thinking with regards to signing with the Sabres versus testing FA.

If the Sabres use Johnson as a trade piece ahead of the TDL, I am going to assume that Johnson told the Sabres he was leaning towards testing FA. If they keep him, I am going to hope that means that they have confidence that he will sign once the Gophers season is over.

I can see it going either way at this point.

They can do nothing and get a 2nd round compensatory pick at this point, which is what my expectation is. No team is going to essentially 'trade down' in the 2nd round for him if he isn't going to sign, which is why I think he stays and just walks this summer. Teams interested will just see if he hits the market.

 

[Jim Bob]

They can do nothing and get a 2nd round compensatory pick at this point, which is what my expectation is. No team is going to essentially 'trade down' in the 2nd round for him if he isn't going to sign, which is why I think he stays and just walks this summer. Teams interested will just see if he hits the market.

The Sabres (and other teams) could view him strictly as a late '24 2nd round pick and be used in a trade at the deadline. That is not outside the realm of possibility.

 

[Bendium]

The Sabres (and other teams) could view him strictly as a late '24 2nd round pick and be used in a trade at the deadline. That is not outside the realm of possibility.

This is certainly where his value starts. Going against his value is the fact he could become a UFA. On the other hand, he is a late 1st round pick with 4 years of development on the bone, and is thus more ready to contribute. Likely third pairing, with an eventual second pair ceiling, if a team has good reason to think he will sign with them (west coast, open spots to progress into), then he probably has at least a 2023 2nd round value, as the trading team can offer him the one year contract burn, and at worst recover the 2nd next year if he goes UFA.

My feeling on it is that if KA has assurances from Ryan that he is going to sign, then KA will stay pat. If we see a trade for a long term dman, then I would expect he knows Ryan is not signing.

 

[Zman5778]

My feeling on it is that if KA has assurances from Ryan that he is going to sign, then KA will stay pat. If we see a trade for a long term dman, then I would expect he knows Ryan is not signing.

I feel like this is a proper POV with the caveat that it's entirely possible that Johnson doesn't sign and KA decides to do what several teams do and just patch the 3rd pair together year-by-year using UFA.

 

[Irie]

....he's a former 1st round pick who will have multiple opportunities to pick from if he goes to UFA.

He's not a 5th rounder who might be a marginal d-man. He will go where he has the best opportunity to get NHL minutes.

You just repeated my argument while trying to present it as if it was the point of your original point that I quoted.

Yes, Johnson is going to look at a situation where he has the best chance to stick as a 6th/7th.

No, Johnson is not going to dismiss opportunities because he might have a harder time cracking the top 4 in several years.

For what it is worth, I still have a feeling that he would prefer to sign in LA or Anaheim, but the landscape in Anaheim has quickly turned from perfect for Johnson to a questionable choice with the emergence of Zellweger, Mintyukov, and foremost, his current teammate and captain(awkward), Lacombe, (if he signs and doesn't walk as well).

 

[Cirris]

My take is, if he signs, great, will add to the depth and could be a solid 4 to 6 in a few years.

But if he doesn't. I'm OK with it. cause at least we'll have decent asset in compensation: a 2nd round pick.

It's not worth getting worked up over a player that may or may not pan out.

It kind of sucks that the NHL doesn't have similar draft compensation offerings for later round draft picks. It's only for 1st round picks.

 

[Dingo44]

Johnson is signing.

 

[SnuggaRUDE]

My take is, if he signs, great, will add to the depth and could be a solid 4 to 6 in a few years.

But if he doesn't. I'm OK with it. cause at least we'll have decent asset in compensation: a 2nd round pick.

It's not worth getting worked up over a player that may or may not pan out.

It kind of sucks that the NHL doesn't have similar draft compensation offerings for later round draft picks. It's only for 1st round picks.

My guess would be they don't want to go through the hassle of compensating all the late round picks which don't sign. The draft is 2-3 rounds too long as it is; without adding 60-90 overhang picks every year.

 

[Cirris]

My guess would be they don't want to go through the hassle of compensating all the late round picks which don't sign. The draft is 2-3 rounds too long as it is; without adding 60-90 overhang picks every year.

that's reasonable. But I do think the NHL could add at least 2nd and maybe 3rd round to the conpensation for lost loophole UFAs. say 4th round for a 2nd lost. and 5th for a 3rd. then just drop 7th round completely to even out the picks.

 

[Weltschmerz]

Right, there are caps on how much of an ELC can be signing bonus (10% of the salary).
In practice, if Johnson signs to close out the season, the vast majority of his year 1 salary would be signing bonuses, as he would be unable to achieve anywhere close to his full paragraph 1 salary due to how little of the season would remain. However, how much he can earn as a signing bonus is still capped at 10% of his total salary (even if at the time of signing that salary is unearnable).

The only thing the Sabres can offer that other teams cannot is the ability to start his ELC this year, and that's something that could have value, but ultimately will most likely end up making little difference.

They could offer max performance bonus maybe?

 

[toddkaz]

There is difference between ‘having players ahead of him’ and having two 1st overall picks under 23 ahead of him. In all aspects, more than just PP time. With Samuelsson on a 7 year deal, it’s unlikely he’ll get top 4 ice time while he’s a Sabre. Lots more opportunity elsewhere. It’s certainly not impossible he signs, I will just be surprised.

If Johnson is worried about top 4 opportunity when he is not even in the NHL then we have a bigger problem than just his ego.