RW Matvei Michkov - HC Sochi, KHL (2023 Draft) - PART 3

[Fantomas]

The only thing that worries me with Michkov is if Arizona drafts him. I'd hate for him to wind up there.

So if 'zona picks first overall, they can have Bedard.

 

[MNRube]

I'd be shocked if he falls to 5. Waiting 3 years isn't really that big of a deal, and then you are getting a fully developed star winger. Most top 5 picks aren't really making much of an impact from 18-21 anyways, especially when you consider they are typically playing for lottery teams anyway.

GMs aren’t as patient as us, they have such tenuous job security it’s rare they are able to look that far ahead. Very possible they see a guy like Yager at 4 or whoever else rises up the board between now and June and think he can contribute right away or in a year. Also there are some elite C prospects available and lots of teams desperately need a 1C solution.

 

[NatusVincere]

Nobody sees these PPG WHL kids and think they can play any bigger role in the NHL in the near future. But I've read that there are also people who consider HF to be patient so…

 

[Kshahdoo]

Look at some of Russian superstars. Kucherov was picked in the 2nd, Kaprizov in the 5th, Panarin wasn't picked at all... Michkov will be fine no matter where they pick him. 1st, 2nd, top 5, top 10 etc mean nothing.

 

[ijif]

I'd be shocked if he falls to 5. Waiting 3 years isn't really that big of a deal, and then you are getting a fully developed star winger. Most top 5 picks aren't really making much of an impact from 18-21 anyways, especially when you consider they are typically playing for lottery teams anyway.

He probably should not fall to 5, but 4 would not be unreasonable. It is early, but here are the DY NHLe leaders since 2007 (list of all players over 35+ NHLe)

1. A. Matthews - 45.89
2. A. Fantilli - 39.72
3. M. Michkov - 37.68
4. L. Carlsson - 35.69
5. A. Cherepanov - 35.60


At the top, this draft is shaping up to be something truly special. I started watching prospects in the 2020 draft, and I'd take Bedard, Fantilli, Michkov, and Carlsson over anyone in the 2020, 2021, or 2022 draft.

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

He probably should not fall to 5, but 4 would not be unreasonable. It is early, but here are the DY NHLe leaders since 2007 (list of all players over 35+ NHLe)

1. A. Matthews - 45.89
2. A. Fantilli - 39.72
3. M. Michkov - 37.68
4. L. Carlsson - 35.69
5. A. Cherepanov - 35.60


At the top, this draft is shaping up to be something truly special. I started watching prospects in the 2020 draft, and I'd take Bedard, Fantilli, Michkov, and Carlsson over anyone in the 2020, 2021, or 2022 draft.

McDavid had an NHLe of ~68? though?

NHLe Calculator - Frozen Tools

NHL Equivalency calculator from dobberhockey.com

frozenpool.dobbersports.com

And I think Eichel had like 57?

I know this isn't an exact calculator but I can't imagine it's that far off?

 

[ijif]

McDavid had an NHLe of ~68? though?

NHLe Calculator - Frozen Tools

NHL Equivalency calculator from dobberhockey.com

frozenpool.dobbersports.com

And I think Eichel had like 57?

I was using TopDownHockey's model. I should have clarified.

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

I was using TopDownHockey's model. I should have clarified.

What is the OHL NHLe coefficient there? Hard to imagine McDavid's 120p in 47gp translates to less than 35 points in an 82 game NHL season

 

[ijif]

What is the OHL NHLe coefficient there? Hard to imagine McDavid's 120p in 47gp translates to less than 35 points in an 82 game NHL season

The coefficient is 0.144.

We can look CJ Turtoro's work. He produces a NHLe distribution based on multiple samples, and this is what he comes up with for the OHL (80% confidence interval)

10th percentile - 0.13
Median - 0.155
90th percentile - 0.183

The model includes international play, but it gives McDavid a 30.75, and that is clear of any u18 player playing in non-men's league by a country mile. Tavares would be second with a score of 22.79.

 

[blinkman360]

I'd be shocked if he falls to 5. Waiting 3 years isn't really that big of a deal, and then you are getting a fully developed star winger. Most top 5 picks aren't really making much of an impact from 18-21 anyways, especially when you consider they are typically playing for lottery teams anyway.

Is it 3 years? I don’t know why I thought it was 2 post-draft.

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

The coefficient is 0.144.

We can look CJ Turtoro's work. He produces a NHLe distribution based on multiple samples, and this is what he comes up with for the OHL (80% confidence interval)

10th percentile - 0.13
Median - 0.155
90th percentile - 0.183

The model includes international play, but it gives McDavid a 30.75, and that is clear of any u18 player playing in non-men's league by a country mile. Tavares would be second with a score of 22.79.

Yeah I've read up on his model. Definitely seems to over-value production in men's league and undervalue long tail outliers in junior

 

[UrbanImpact]

Would love him in Vancouver, we all of a sudden has an influx of Russians,

Podkolzin, Kuzmenki, Mikhayev , Klimovich (Belarussian)

Also liking from what im seeing with recent prospect Kirill Kudryavtsev

 

[Belloco]

Fantilli and Carlsson are having great seasons. Better than expected.

As a winger, Michkov slips 4th in my board.

And then there is the contract factor even if, with patience, it will be an advantage.

Currently, Michkov only plays in VHL. He will have 3 years to become a dominant player in the KHL and will arrive in the league before he turns 22. The team that will select him will benefit from him with an entry contract for 2 years while he will be a top player.

U21 players who boost the level of their team are very rare.

Playing in KHL before being in NHL is the best way. Usually, players arrive too early in the NHL.

 

[ClarkBolzano]

At this point I think he goes around 5-10. The other guys at the top are too strong for GMs to pass up.

Having watched Michkov live, I think it would be a mistake. You can’t teach what he has and he’s absolutely mesmerizing with the puck.

Bedard will Go First,then Nobody will Pass on Michkov, IT doesn t Matter which Team. He is Just too good, He is Just as good AS Bedard.

 

[Kshahdoo]

Bedard will Go First,then Nobody will Pass on Michkov, IT doesn t Matter which Team. He is Just too good, He is Just as good AS Bedard.

I've heared Fantilli scored 11 of his 15 points vs just 2 teams but still he's big, physically matured center who has very good NCAA statistics (at the moment). If he keeps playing this way and stays above PPG level as a 17-18 year old kid, I'm pretty sure GMs will prefer him to Michkov, who won't come to the league before 2026 year.

 

[BenchBrawl]

Michkov is my #1. I hope Montreal drafts him.

 

[olgerd]

Michkov is my #1. I hope Montreal drafts him.

Even if the potential of Bedard and Michkov is equal, Michkov will never be chosen above Bedard for well-known reasons.
As a fan of Michkov's talent, I would not mind if he was chosen at number 3-4-5 and he would get into a team that has a future like Detroit/Anaheim/Buffalo.

 

[BenchBrawl]

Even if the potential of Bedard and Michkov is equal, Michkov will never be chosen above Bedard for well-known reasons.
As a fan of Michkov's talent, I would not mind if he was chosen at number 3-4-5 and he would get into a team that has a future like Detroit/Anaheim/Buffalo.

If Montreal luckily gets the 1st overall, Michkov would fit right in with the young group of players.

 

[NatusVincere]

Maybe we need a little bit context here to Michkovs start in the VHL (and remember he didn't play for almost half a year)
Some of the recent top russian prospects in their draft year

Not every top prospect is listed here. Yurov didn't have the option. Chinakhov was an overager (in his draft year he didn't crack his VHL team). And a lot of guys played in NA of course.

Almost half of this list didn't crack the VHL Team and had to play in the MHL

With 6 6 2 for 8 Michkov already outscored Trik, Chib, Amirov, Pod and Kravtsov. He already has more goals than every of them besides Miro. Michkovs PPG as of now is 1.33, he leads his team already in goals after 6 games. He is 3rd in PPG (with min 5 Games) in the whole league behind a 33 year old and 27 year old player. And that’s the all time list for U19 in the VHL:

Besides Michkov only Kravtsov and Nuke were in their draft years… I get it, these are not the top ones like Kaprizov or Svechnikov. One played for a bad Team in the K and the other went to NA. But I doubt that both would come close at the same age to what Michkov is showing in the VHL right now.

 

[LetsGoFlyers12]

Maybe we need a little bit context here to Michkovs start in the VHL (and remember he didn't play for almost half a year)
Some of the recent top russian prospects in their draft year

Not every top prospect is listed here. Yurov didn't have the option. Chinakhov was an overager (in his draft year he didn't crack his VHL team). And a lot of guys played in NA of course.

Almost half of this list didn't crack the VHL Team and had to play in the MHL

With 6 6 2 for 8 Michkov already outscored Trik, Chib, Amirov, Pod and Kravtsov. He already has more goals than every of them besides Miro. Michkovs PPG as of now is 1.33, he leads his team already in goals after 6 games. He is 3rd in PPG (with min 5 Games) in the whole league behind a 33 year old and 27 year old player. And that’s the all time list for U19 in the VHL:

Besides Michkov only Kravtsov and Nuke were in their draft years… I get it, these are not the top ones like Kaprizov or Svechnikov. One played for a bad Team in the K and the other went to NA. But I doubt that both would come close at the same age to what Michkov is showing in the VHL right now.

Great info here. Regardless of the critiques, and contract factors, Michkov has surpassed expectations in every league and tournament since he was 14 years old. Every level people expect him to slow down, but he does not. He's just special

 

[ClarkBolzano]

Can Someone please explain IT to me cause i Just dont get IT. How do WE still discuss If a GM Takes Michkov at Number 2? All the Teams have so many good Players available in their Clubs. Why in the Name of good should i, If i have a Chance to draft a truly Special Talent Like Michkov, even think about If Bedard is already drafted? Players Like Bedard and Michkov dont come every year. Michkov hast More Talent than Kaprizov and WE all know what Kaprizov ist Doping in the NHL. Are you kidding me??? Its mit Like an NHL Team Wirth all that great Players will Not be competitive If one 18 year old Player ist Missing., Comon. The only stuff i know, If you dont Take Michkov at 1 or 2 you are doomed AS GM.

Not Doping, Doing hehe

 

[Kudo Shinichi]

Can Someone please explain IT to me cause i Just dont get IT. How do WE still discuss If a GM Takes Michkov at Number 2? All the Teams have so many good Players available in their Clubs. Why in the Name of good should i, If i have a Chance to draft a truly Special Talent Like Michkov, even think about If Bedard is already drafted? Players Like Bedard and Michkov dont come every year. Michkov hast More Talent than Kaprizov and WE all know what Kaprizov ist Doping in the NHL. Are you kidding me??? Its mit Like an NHL Team Wirth all that great Players will Not be competitive If one 18 year old Player ist Missing., Comon. The only stuff i know, If you dont Take Michkov at 1 or 2 you are doomed AS GM.

Not Doping, Doing hehe

because Fantili and Carlsson are doing phenomenal and are special talent, and don't have the Russia problem.

 

[Speyer]

He probably should not fall to 5, but 4 would not be unreasonable. It is early, but here are the DY NHLe leaders since 2007 (list of all players over 35+ NHLe)

1. A. Matthews - 45.89
2. A. Fantilli - 39.72
3. M. Michkov - 37.68
4. L. Carlsson - 35.69
5. A. Cherepanov - 35.60


At the top, this draft is shaping up to be something truly special. I started watching prospects in the 2020 draft, and I'd take Bedard, Fantilli, Michkov, and Carlsson over anyone in the 2020, 2021, or 2022 draft.

NHLe is the worst advanced stat in hockey. How does anybody take it seriously?

 

[chaosrevolver]

Can Someone please explain IT to me cause i Just dont get IT. How do WE still discuss If a GM Takes Michkov at Number 2? All the Teams have so many good Players available in their Clubs. Why in the Name of good should i, If i have a Chance to draft a truly Special Talent Like Michkov, even think about If Bedard is already drafted? Players Like Bedard and Michkov dont come every year. Michkov hast More Talent than Kaprizov and WE all know what Kaprizov ist Doping in the NHL. Are you kidding me??? Its mit Like an NHL Team Wirth all that great Players will Not be competitive If one 18 year old Player ist Missing., Comon. The only stuff i know, If you dont Take Michkov at 1 or 2 you are doomed AS GM.

Not Doping, Doing hehe

There are legitimately at least 4 special players in this draft. The separation from Michkov to Fantilli and Carlsson is not that much, and some teams may not want to risk the Contract Status/Russian Factor. Being a winger could factor in as well.

 

[wetcoast]

I've heared Fantilli scored 11 of his 15 points vs just 2 teams but still he's big, physically matured center who has very good NCAA statistics (at the moment). If he keeps playing this way and stays above PPG level as a 17-18 year old kid, I'm pretty sure GMs will prefer him to Michkov, who won't come to the league before 2026 year.

This is possible if Fantilli keeps progressing and heck he might even make it interesting for the #1 spot as well but I think right now he is behind Bedard and then him then Michkov but someone else (most probable at this part is Carlsson) that teams might also consider in the top 4.