RW Matvei Michkov (2023, 7th, PHI) Part 4

[Breakfast of Champs]

I personally think he’d have similar numbers to Bedard in CHL

I really don’t see why he wouldn’t

Yup, I mean Zavgorodniy was able to put up 1.66 ppg in the CHL 3 years ago , and Michakov just scored more pts than him for Sochi in less than half the games.

It's not unreasonable to think Zavgorodniy could be 2+ ppg in the CHL today, being 3 years older and more advanced than he was in 2019-20, and michkov is already more than doubling his production. Now I don't think michkov would be anything close to 4 ppg , but 2.5 is pretty reasonable considering what he has done every single place he has ever played. He would almost guaranteed be over 2 ppg

 

[Kcoyote3]

Only 3 points? Bust

 

[NatusVincere]

Michkov was involved in almost 35% of Sochi's goals. I'll bet that's never reached before by an first year draft eligible in Russias top league.

Just for fun:

	Points	Games	GF Team	%
Michkov	20 (9+11)	27	58	34.5
Tarasenko	24 (13+11)	42	110	21.8
Ovechkin	24 (13+11	53	118	20.3
Cherepanov	29 (18+11)	46	161	18.0
Tolvanen (D+1)	36 (19+17)	49	132	27.7

Of course I dont know the exact number of goals the teams scored in exact the games of the listed players, except for Michkov. So I took the Teams GPG for the respective number of games of the players. Nevertheless the results should reflect reality:

1. Sochi, as we already knew, is almost entirely talentless
2. No draft-eligible prospect has played such a pivotal role for his KHL/RSL team ever

 

[Kshahdoo]

Only 3 points? Bust

Yeah, only 3 points in 3-1 win...

 

[ponder]

Just for fun:

[TABLE=collapse]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]

[TD]Points[/TD]
[TD]Games[/TD]
[TD]GF Team[/TD]

[TD][TABLE=collapse]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]

[TD]%[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Michkov[/TD]
[TD]20 (9+11)[/TD]
[TD]27[/TD]
[TD]58[/TD]
[TD]34.5[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Tarasenko[/TD]
[TD]24 (13+11)[/TD]
[TD]42[/TD]
[TD]110[/TD]
[TD]21.8[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Ovechkin[/TD]
[TD]24 (13+11[/TD]
[TD]53[/TD]
[TD]118[/TD]
[TD]20.3[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Cherepanov[/TD]
[TD]29 (18+11)[/TD]
[TD]46[/TD]
[TD]161[/TD]
[TD]18.0[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Tolvanen (D+1)[/TD]
[TD]36 (19+17)[/TD]
[TD]49[/TD]
[TD]132[/TD]
[TD]27.7[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]

Of course I dont know the exact number of goals the teams scored in exact the games of the listed players, except for Michkov. So I took the Teams GPG for the respective number of games of the players. Nevertheless the results should reflect reality:

1. Sochi, as we already knew, is almost entirely talentless
2. No draft-eligible prospect has played such a pivotal role for his KHL/RSL team ever

Yeah, he's having an incredible season. IMO has only raised his draft stock, which was already extremely high before the season started. Despite being a small winger going up against big centres for the 2nd overall pick, I think he'd be a pretty clear 2nd overall if not for his contract with SKA. Even with the contract, he could go 2, but could also go 3-5. He looks like Kucherov 2.0 to me, though well ahead of where Kucherov was at the same age.

Although, some more context about the last point:

- The RSL/KHL has only been around since 1999. If you include predecessors, you'll find higher scoring seasons, like Samsonov putting up 38 points (21 goals) in 51 games in his D-1 for CSKA Moscow in 1995/96, before going to play his draft year in the IHL

- Plenty of top Russian prospects played in different leagues, like the VHL, OHL, WHL, QMJHL, etc.

- Of top Russian prospects who played in the RSL/KHL in their draft year (a pretty small pool already), many played for stacked teams where it's simply very hard to get a significant offensive role, and they didn't get loaned to a weak team like SKA did with Michkov

It's still extremely, extremely impressive, but does needs a bit of context.

 

[Fantomas]

While haters hatin', Michkov scorin'.

 

[kp61c]

My point is taking Carlsson over Michkov ia understandable and they are in the same category.
Point about physical maturity was regarding their seasons in SHL and KHL

they are not in the same category. Carlsson's pedestrian WJC is a prove of that. Carlsson is in the same category with Fantili. Both struggled mightily at the WJC despite being two times bigger than most of the players. Michkov is a tier above.

 

[Fantomas]

they are not in the same category. Carlsson's pedestrian WJC is a prove of that. Carlsson in the same category with Fantili. Both strugglyd mightly at the WJC despite being two times bigger than the resto of the players. Michkov is a tier above.

Generally I agree with you even though I liked Carlsson at WJC. It's Fantilli who had the deer in headlights look (but got better later).

The difference between these two guys and Michkov is that Michkov dominates every event and they don't.

 

[kp61c]

Generally I agree with you even though I liked Carlsson at WJC. It's Fantilli who had the deer in headlights look (but got better later).

The difference between these two guys and Michkov is that Michkov dominates every event and they don't.

i'm sure you would have liked Michkov much more had he not been banned.

 

[Fantomas]

i'm sure you would have liked Michkov much more had he not been banned.

We don't even have to use hypotheticals with him. He's played at every level versus his peers and destroyed every time.

 

[Czechboy]

 

[Fyodorov]

 

[Boonk]

If he falls to #6 someone is going to be a happy camper. He should deadass be going #2

 

[Postulates]

So is Crosby. So was Martin St. Louis. Ovechkin is not a genetic freak because of his height.

Ovechkin has out hit most his contemporaries combined

 

[PeterCheater]

I am not saying he is bad. He is the best russian prospect at least since Svechnikov, probably even since Ovechkin/Malkin. But when I see insane hype based on pure stats watch after 5pt night vs Kunlun(worst team in the league after Sochi) I react, because big picture is different, because you cant just take stats from KHL without understanding the league and role on the team and compare.

Yeah, both Michkov and Bedard - as amazing as they are as prospects - don't have as great NHL-projection as Ovechkin/Crosby/McDavid due to size and/or skating and/or general physical profile. Not saying Bedard won't be as good as Ovechkin though, but Ovechkin exceeded expectations in terms of production (he went from 0.7 PPG in D+1 season to top5 player in the league in D+2 season) thanks to his amazing physical profile. Same with McDavid actually having multiple seasons comparable to prime Gretzky and Lemieux (not peak yet tho). This is like a reverse of the same coin named prospects evaluation. So too much production-focus in both topics in my eyes.

The question is how big are chances that Michkov separates himself from Kucherov/Malkin/Matthews tier of players - and his junior production makes this comparison legit, but his size and skating combination makes it unlikely.

WHAT IS STILL FREAKING AMAZING to be compared with Hart-level players as an 18yo kid, but it makes these ''best U-18 season since'' a bit trivia (with all due respect).

 

[Garl]

they are not in the same category. Carlsson's pedestrian WJC is a prove of that. Carlsson is in the same category with Fantili. Both struggled mightily at the WJC despite being two times bigger than most of the players. Michkov is a tier above.

As I said, "how dare there be any comparsion", russian fans seem to be insulted by the idea that their 'next one" is put in the same tier as some swede and canadian "another one".

Bottom line: Carlsson is 6'3, Fantilli 6'2 and both had better regular seasons than 5'9 Michkov. Carlsson playing a big role on a top team in SHL, or Fantilli leading NCAA scoring race is more impressive than Michkov scoring 5pts against Kunlun in the meaningless last game of the season.

And no, they didnt "struggle mightily", thats some gaslighting. Did Malkin sttuggle mightily at WJC as 17 yo? Ovechkin? And Malkin was 6'3 and Ovechkin was 220 lbs
The "2 times bigger" is some weird argument.

 

[Garl]

Sorry, my English isn't the best, so let's recap for a moment. You said it would be more impressive if Michkov had 10 points in 27 games for SKA than 20 for Sochi. I'll tell you that he already had this ppg last year with SKA when he was 17 and you:



Maybe, just maybe, your deep analysis isn't as deep and Michkov's 20 points for Sochi is more impressive as you think?

Lets imagine that alongside with Michkov there was another russian top prospect, very similar to him, lets say Ivanov. Both are 5'9 belong to SKA, Michkov is sent to Sochi and has 20pts, while Ivanov stays with SKA and has 10 pts. Who had better season?

 

[Garl]

At this point, I hope Michkov goes over Carlsson just to make you mad, Garl.

Good grief

I dont care if he does go ahead of Carlsson or not. The thing I am arguing against is fake news that Michkov had some super impressive historical season.
If he had same results for SKA, no question, there would be an argument for him as a 1st overall over Bedard, but he didnt, he was loaned to a farm team

 

[Garl]

Yeah, both Michkov and Bedard - as amazing as they are as prospects - don't have as great NHL-projection as Ovechkin/Crosby/McDavid due to size and/or skating and/or general physical profile. Not saying Bedard won't be as good as Ovechkin though, but Ovechkin exceeded expectations in terms of production (he went from 0.7 PPG in D+1 season to top5 player in the league in D+2 season) thanks to his amazing physical profile. Same with McDavid actually having multiple seasons comparable to prime Gretzky and Lemieux (not peak yet tho). This is like a reverse of the same coin named prospects evaluation. So too much production-focus in both topics in my eyes.

The question is how big are chances that Michkov separates himself from Kucherov/Malkin/Matthews tier of players - and his junior production makes this comparison legit, but his size and skating combination makes it unlikely.

WHAT IS STILL FREAKING AMAZING to be compared with Hart-level players as an 18yo kid, but it makes these ''best U-18 season since'' a bit trivia (with all due respect).

Michkovs junior production is crazy, but Matthews was without a doubt a better playet at the same age, Malkin was more raw, but his ceiling looked higher
Kucherov is a special case

 

[Hanji]

I dont care if he does go ahead of Carlsson or not. The thing I am arguing against is fake news that Michkov had some super impressive historical season.
If he had same results for SKA, no question, there would be an argument for him as a 1st overall over Bedard, but he didnt, he was loaned to a farm team

Fake news?

You do realize Michkov just scored at the highest rate in Russia’s top league for any draft eligible player since the mid-1990s? Right?

I don’t care what team he played for, that’s an impressive historical season.
It’s an achievement thousands of kids for nearly 3 decades have not been able to do.

I realize your schtick is to downplay his achievements. Find I get it. But let’s at least have a little intellectual honesty here. This isnt ‘fake news’.

 

[PeterCheater]

It’s an achievement thousands of kids for nearly 3 decades have not been able to do.

Well, such description kind of supports what @Garl is saying, even though I don't agree with him on every point he's made.

For example, you are comparing stats of Michkov to Ovechkin and Malkin, ignoring they were playing on better/much better teams (Magnitorsk was the best team in Russia, wasn't?), in a league with much lower scoring average than even KHL today.

Tarasenko also did ''something thousands of kids for nearly 2 decades have not been able to do'', before Michkov, and I truly don't think it meant as much as you suggest in case of MM.

And it's not like I have a negative bias against Michkov, in fact I've always had a soft spot for Russian players - but people overestimate these stats comparisons, for obvious reasons, ignoring circumstances and non-objective conditions: this is the only qualitative data we have besides measurements, but it's only minor part of player's evaluation in terms of his NHL projection.

If you believe Michkov has generational tools or upside based on an actual scouting - this is completely fair.

But 5-point game against 2nd-worst team in a league in the last game of regular season is more of a trivia fact.

 

[kp61c]

Bottom line: Carlsson is 6'3, Fantilli 6'2 and both had better regular seasons than 5'9 Michkov. Carlsson playing a big role on a top team in SHL, or Fantilli leading NCAA scoring race is more impressive than Michkov scoring 5pts against Kunlun in the meaningless last game of the season.

Fantili is playing against kids. Carlsson is a point contributor in SHL exactly because he looks like an adult (6'3) and plays for a top team. This and a pedestrian showing at the wjc leaves the question about his ceiling as a prospect open. Tiny guy becoming a leader of a crappy khl team is much more impressive. And Michkov whould have dominated Fantili and Carlsson at the wjc, i'm sure.

 

[ozzie]

Fantili is playing against kids. Carlsson is a point contributor in SHL exactly because he looks like an adult (6'3) and plays for a top team. This and a pedestrian showing at the wjc leaves the question about his ceiling as a prospect open. Tiny guy becoming a leader of a crappy khl team is much more impressive. And Michkov whould have dominated Fantili and Carlsson at the wjc, i'm sure.

Putting national pride aside. Fantili is playing against young grown men, not exactly your run of the mill 'kids'. Both Fantili and Carlsson have size, which obviously can't be taught. I get Russia is all excited about this kid, but the same doubts that surround Bedard, surround Michkov as well. It's really difficult to judge Michkov because he didn't play against his peers at the WJC, he could have easily struggled. We will never know.

I'm glad to see Russians are already comparing this kid to Ovechkin and Malkin though, just as unreasonable us Canadians comparing Bedard to an established star like McDavid and Crosby. No pressure at all.

When it comes to drafting, unfortunately availability is a skill. Michkov isn't a safe pick for teams looking to make something happen sooner rather than later. Don't be surprised if he drops outside of the top 5, if not lower. Don't take it personally, it's not really a reflection of his skill, just his circumstance.

 

[CanadienShark]

I dont care if he does go ahead of Carlsson or not. The thing I am arguing against is fake news that Michkov had some super impressive historical season.
If he had same results for SKA, no question, there would be an argument for him as a 1st overall over Bedard, but he didnt, he was loaned to a farm team

These two words speak volumes about you and your opinion.

Michkov has the pedigree of a 1st overall pick in almost any draft.

 

[kp61c]

I'm glad to see Russians are already comparing this kid to Ovechkin and Malkin though, just as unreasonable us Canadians comparing Bedard to an established star like McDavid and Crosby. No pressure at all.

When it comes to drafting, unfortunately availability is a skill. Michkov isn't a safe pick for teams looking to make something happen sooner rather than later. Don't be surprised if he drops outside of the top 5, if not lower. Don't take it personally, it's not really a reflection of his skill, just his circumstance.

i won't lol