RW Matvei Michkov (2023, 7th, PHI) Part 4

[QJL]

Okay so 4 points

Yeah… about even with the ratio of games played against top teams…

 

[Czechboy]

"politically-correct"

I agree with you. I think he's either 1 or 2 in this draft based on ability.

However, I don't think it's Rusophobia or being 'politically corrrect'... If I'm a GM I'm not giving the 1OV or 2OV (a spot where that player is usually in the NHL the next season if they are a forward) to a player I can't control for 3 more years (when I may be fired as a GM).

I'd feel the same way if Fantilli said he's getting his PHD in the NCAA and not coming to the NHL till he is Dr. Fantilli.lol Or if Sale signed for 3 more years in Extraliga and said he wasn't coming till 2026 (maybe 2025, can't rememember).

Like I say, by the time Michkov arrives he will be a rookie to North America, the NHL, the language, the culture and that is a tough transtion for any European. Bedard will have around 200 NHL games under his belt and Carlson/Fantilli probably around 160 games.

I do agree that he will probably take off right away and may even have a Selanne level rookie season though.

 

[Intangir]

I agree with you. I think he's either 1 or 2 in this draft based on ability.

However, I don't think it's Rusophobia or being 'politically corrrect'... If I'm a GM I'm not giving the 1OV or 2OV (a spot where that player is usually in the NHL the next season if they are a forward) to a player I can't control for 3 more years (when I may be fired as a GM).

I'd feel the same way if Fantilli said he's getting his PHD in the NCAA and not coming to the NHL till he is Dr. Fantilli.lol Or if Sale signed for 3 more years in Extraliga and said he wasn't coming till 2026 (maybe 2025, can't rememember).

Like I say, by the time Michkov arrives he will be a rookie to North America, the NHL, the language, the culture and that is a tough transtion for any European. Bedard will have around 200 NHL games under his belt and Carlson/Fantilli probably around 160 games.

I do agree that he will probably take off right away and may even have a Selanne level rookie season though.

I agree entirely with that you've said. But I watch the kid play and his talent screams "future superstar" to me in a way very few prospects' skillsets have in recent memory (excluding Bedard of course).

And I personally can't fathom not taking Michkov really high in the draft. No matter a team's prospect pool or needs Michkov is BPA real quick, and not drafting him at least 4th is an egregious mistake in my opinion.

Which is exactly why I think he will slip at the draft and I will scream at my TV as my team's (Montreal) GM drafts a guy like Will Smith or Benson before Michkov.

 

[Czechboy]

I agree entirely with that you've said. But I watch the kid play and his talent screams "future superstar" to me in a way very few prospects' skillsets have in recent memory (excluding Bedard of course).

And I personally can't fathom not taking Michkov really high in the draft. No matter a team's prospect pool or needs Michkov is BPA real quick, and not drafting him at least 4th is an egregious mistake in my opinion.

Which is exactly why I think he will slip at the draft and I will scream at my TV as my team's (Montreal) GM drafts a guy like Will Smith or Benson before Michkov.

Anything past 4 is silly really... I think he's better than Fantilli and Carlsson but I think they go ahead of him. Anyone else won't make that big an impact in the next 3 years to my eye. Using my own fav, Sale, he's at least one full season away from playing an NHL game and maybe 2 seasons after being drafted. Michkov will catch him in points relatively quick and I"m a big Sale fan (next Hemsky to my eye!).

 

[Bye Bye Blueston]

Anything past 4 is silly really... I think he's better than Fantilli and Carlsson but I think they go ahead of him. Anyone else won't make that big an impact in the next 3 years to my eye. Using my own fav, Sale, he's at least one full season away from playing an NHL game and maybe 2 seasons after being drafted. Michkov will catch him in points relatively quick and I"m a big Sale fan (next Hemsky to my eye!).

I don't think it is huge deal if he comes over in 26. Not like Sale or Smith or even Carlsson or Fantilli are likely to be big stars by then. My bigger concern would be that he delays further. So much of the value is getting these guys before they become crazy expensive and then UFA. If he signs another deal and doesn't come over until 29 then how long do you have him? Again, not saying don't draft him but it's not as easy as saying he will be better player. It's easy to see a scenario where he is better player but Smith or Sale or whomever gives the team who drafts him much more value.

 

[Kshahdoo]

I don't think it is huge deal if he comes over in 26. Not like Sale or Smith or even Carlsson or Fantilli are likely to be big stars by then. My bigger concern would be that he delays further. So much of the value is getting these guys before they become crazy expensive and then UFA. If he signs another deal and doesn't come over until 29 then how long do you have him? Again, not saying don't draft him but it's not as easy as saying he will be better player. It's easy to see a scenario where he is better player but Smith or Sale or whomever gives the team who drafts him much more value.

He'll have 4 year KHL experience in 2026 year, I hope it's more than enough for him. He's a crazy competative kid, he'll want to play against and beat bests of the bests.

 

[Kshahdoo]

Right now in the KHL Michkov struggles with getting free of defensive coverage because of how poor his team is, how simple it is to just shadow him/limit his options offensively/dominate possession against Sochi, which results in completely neutering his team/shuts him down.

And that situation, combined with Michkov's inexperience at the senior level, russian-style coaching philosophies (veteran-heavy), and Michkov's own personal flaws as a prospect playing in a very high-level league, leads to him not having great offensive options to choose from offensively and thus to taking what's available to him; a lot of useless shots from the perimeter.

As a prospect, Michkov has flaws. It's undeniably true. And the somewhat recent "souring" on him of certain pro or amateur scouts (Will Scouching comes to mind first but there are others) has "some" grounds given his showing and sometimes lack of creativity in favor of pure sniping at Sochi, nevermind the production.

Except that those concerns are in my opinion way overblown.

In my view, aside from a general lack of defensive ability/acumen, a lack of size/strength, some cherry-picking offensively, a lack of truly elite skating ability that would alleviate concerns over his stature, and a bit of an entitled/bratty attitude on the ice at times, the flaws that Michkov exhibits are very easily fixable and there is not a lot of risk involved with him as far as being a good producer in the NHL goes (though becoming a "great" producer is something else entirely and will require ++ work ethic/dedication/abnegation).

To be sure, Michkov needs to get stronger, improve his balance, stick position, technique and angling of opponents when battling along the boards, and he needs to learn to make more incisive/quicker decisions with the puck/gaining confidence against pros. But those are some easy/quick adjustments to make, which most prospects end up making as they round-out their game.

And if Michkov just does his due diligences as far as practicing skating, watching videos and putting in the work in the gym go, just keeps building on his frankly jaw-dropping skillset/hockey IQ in the offensive zone, on the half-wall on the PP and as a conduit for transition, then he'll be set for a at least a top-6 role at the NHL level. With his talent that's the bare minimum level he should realistically reach if he makes those adjustments.

And I think he's dynamic-enough offensively to potentially become a franchise-altering type of player ala Panarin/Kaprizov, possibly even of the HHOF-bound type like Ovechkin/Malkin/Kucherov if he hits Michkov hits his absolute ceiling, which could happen but is FAR from the likeliest outcome let us be clear.

For one, Michkov's shooting (motion, range, off-foot shooting, release, wrist shot, slap shot, one-timer, everything really) is absolutely elite, even by NHL standards. But his trip in Sochi and paltry minutes played with SKA have wrongfully given some people the impression that Michkov is some kind of pure sniper, one-dimensional finisher, which isn't true at all.

He is one of the best half-wall players I've ever seen since Backstrom on the powerplay as a prospect with the way he dissects defenses, how much of a virtuoso he is with the touch/accuracy/timing of his passes, his manipulation of defending sticks with fakes. Seriously, Michkov's creativity and puck distribution at the MHL/VHL level are actually just as impressive as his scoring prowess despite what his stats would indicate at a glance. And he was often the primary puck carrier/playmaker at those levels.

I did not manage to see that many games of his, but the ones I saw at those levels (mostly VHL) this year he was just shining out there. And he was just consistently dangerous as an all-around offensive threat on the ice. So much so that I'd say that I personally haven't yet seen a better draft-eligible prospect playing in those leagues.

And I say that while remembering Kucherov obliterating the MHL in his draft year, Miroschnichenko and Yurov looking amazing last year, and many more since I started really paying attention to prospects (about 2006/2007 or so).

Seriously, forget the russian factor and geopolitics and just draft Michkov. Bet on his supreme talent and intelligence on the ice, they don't come around that often.

Sure, there is some amount of risk involved, and your team will have to wait a little while before getting him, but if things go right then you laugh all the way to the bank as your team welcomes a great offensive player in its lineup (with 50 goals, 100+ pts/season potential) when Michkov does come over from Russia in 2026 or so.

As a bonus, because there is some uncertainty involving Russia then you could even potentially "steal" Michkov and get him much lower in the draft than his skillset would normally warrant in a more "standard" geopolitical context.

As a sidenote, Michkov would be my personal #2 at the draft after Bedard. But I can understand favoring Fantilli and Carlsson above him given that they are also awesome, will play a more important position at the NHL level, and would appear as "safer", more "politically-correct" choices for GMs given the situation with Russia/Ukraine.

I don't agree personally, but Fantilli and Carlsson above Michkov at the draft is a reasonable position to defend. Any lower than that though, and it starts getting silly with the crazy potential that this kid has.

Unfortunately I think that this relative "devaluation" of russian prospects will be widespread this year and I suspect that the same inane babble used to argue not taking Michkov after the 4th spot will also negatively impact the ranking of Gulyayev and Simashev (among others still), who should both be top 20 picks (personally think Gulyayev should be top 10/12) but probably will only get drafted in the late first-round. Perhaps even lower if they are unlucky/teams get stubborn, and risk-averse.

Anyways, that's enough ranting/propping up Michkov's tires for one day. Any more than this and they will be propped so high they will levitate and he won't be able to drive. Cheers and have a good day.

When he played in the VHL people said he was just a PP specialist and nothing more. On Sochi he's 1+2 on PP in 24 games. On a competitive team he would probably have had another 6-7 or even more points on PP. He could actually be pretty close to a PPG level with his usual PP production.

 

[Nona Di Giuseppe]

It is negative.

Compare what he said about Michkov to what he said about Bedard, Fantilli, and Carlsson.

He gushed over those guys, then said nothing at all about Michkov.

As the old adage goes, if you have nothing nice to say, don't say anything at all. Which is what Donegney did.

And if you look at Doneghey's drafting history, it lines up. Michkov doesn't fit the mold of players that he likes.

this is nonsense

 

[NatusVincere]

When Sochi is done... I think it sounds like soon... what is he doing next? Dryland training? Lower league as a ringer? Back to SKA?

He said a few weeks ago that he would play for Sochi's MHL team in the playoffs if he gets the chance.

 

[Kuz]

There could also be an advantage with Michkov coming later. He will be fully developed an on a low contract.

Most of the best talents even those NHL ready arent good enough anyway to make a team choosing first competive during their ELC. Often they are good enough to keep the team from the best draft positions. So Bedard is probably a 10 mill+ player while Michkov will be cheap his first season.

So the team that drafts Michkov probably have better picks in the time he is away and then when he arrives they might have an elite 1st line player for cheap. A little bit like Kaprizov just that if the team plans well they dont have anchor contracts like the Wild had with Suter and Parise++.

 

[Deleted member 339941]

 

[BB88]

Record is a record but as it’s been said and needs to be said the competition isn’t that great.

0 top5 picks
1 9th overall pick
2 10th overall picks.

So you really want to see a franchise prospect to have the best stats from all the pre draft prospects

 

[Zine]

Record is a record but as it’s been said and needs to be said the competition isn’t that great.

0 top5 picks
1 9th overall pick
2 10th overall picks.

So you really want to see a franchise prospect to have the best stats from all the pre draft prospects

How is the competition not that great?

He’s significantly out-performing Kucherov and Kaprizov who are, arguably, the best wingers currently in the NHL.

 

[BB88]

How is the competition not that great?

He’s significantly out-performing Kucherov and Kaprizov who are, arguably, the best wingers currently in the NHL.

Are you even serious at this point?

Kaprizov was a 5th round pick, Kucherov a late 2nd.
Neither of them were McDavids on draft day, what Michkov is here seen.

That statline is for pre draft prospects.
& so far KHL has had zero franchise prospects playing in it pre Michkov

 

[LetsGoFlyers12]

Are you even serious at this point?

Kaprizov was a 5th round pick, Kucherov a late 2nd.
Neither of them were McDavids on draft day, what Michkov is here seen.

That statline is for pre draft prospects.
& so far KHL has had zero franchise prospects playing in it pre Michkov

Both of these players have eclipsed 40 goals and 100 points, but they are not franchise players.. Stop with the "they weren't high picks" argument. They always produced elite stats their whole careers, and their success is no surprise to those who followed them.

 

[Zine]

Are you even serious at this point?

Kaprizov was a 5th round pick, Kucherov a late 2nd.
Neither of them were McDavids on draft day, what Michkov is here seen.

That statline is for pre draft prospects.
& so far KHL has had zero franchise prospects playing in it pre Michkov

That’s because the NHL is inadequate at scouting Russia. Horribly so. Go educate yourself on how Minnesota discovered Kaprizov. It’s embarrassing.

Kucherov set the all-time points record at the U18 his draft year, and everybody knew Kaprizov was gonna be fantastic.

In addition (even though it shouldnt) the Russia factor has always been an influence.

 

[Zine]

Right now in the KHL Michkov struggles with getting free of defensive coverage because of how poor his team is, how simple it is to just shadow him/limit his options offensively/dominate possession against Sochi, which results in completely neutering his team/shuts him down.

And that situation, combined with Michkov's inexperience at the senior level, russian-style coaching philosophies (veteran-heavy), and Michkov's own personal flaws as a prospect playing in a very high-level league, leads to him not having great offensive options to choose from offensively and thus to taking what's available to him; a lot of useless shots from the perimeter.

As a prospect, Michkov has flaws. It's undeniably true. And the somewhat recent "souring" on him of certain pro or amateur scouts (Will Scouching comes to mind first but there are others) has "some" grounds given his showing and sometimes lack of creativity in favor of pure sniping at Sochi, nevermind the production.

Except that those concerns are in my opinion way overblown.

In my view, aside from a general lack of defensive ability/acumen, a lack of size/strength, some cherry-picking offensively, a lack of truly elite skating ability that would alleviate concerns over his stature, and a bit of an entitled/bratty attitude on the ice at times, the flaws that Michkov exhibits are very easily fixable and there is not a lot of risk involved with him as far as being a good producer in the NHL goes (though becoming a "great" producer is something else entirely and will require ++ work ethic/dedication/abnegation).

To be sure, Michkov needs to get stronger, improve his balance, stick position, technique and angling of opponents when battling along the boards, and he needs to learn to make more incisive/quicker decisions with the puck/gaining confidence against pros. But those are some easy/quick adjustments to make, which most prospects end up making as they round-out their game.

And if Michkov just does his due diligences as far as practicing skating, watching videos and putting in the work in the gym go, just keeps building on his frankly jaw-dropping skillset/hockey IQ in the offensive zone, on the half-wall on the PP and as a conduit for transition, then he'll be set for a at least a top-6 role at the NHL level. With his talent that's the bare minimum level he should realistically reach if he makes those adjustments.

And I think he's dynamic-enough offensively to potentially become a franchise-altering type of player ala Panarin/Kaprizov, possibly even of the HHOF-bound type like Ovechkin/Malkin/Kucherov if he hits his absolute ceiling, which could happen but is FAR from the likeliest outcome let us be clear.

For one, Michkov's shooting (motion, range, off-foot shooting, release, wrist shot, slap shot, one-timer, everything really) is absolutely elite, even by NHL standards. But his trip in Sochi and paltry minutes played with SKA have wrongfully given some people the impression that Michkov is some kind of pure sniper, one-dimensional finisher, which isn't true at all.

He is one of the best half-wall players I've ever seen since Backstrom on the powerplay as a prospect with the way he dissects defenses, how much of a virtuoso he is with the touch/accuracy/timing of his passes, his manipulation of defending sticks with fakes. Seriously, Michkov's creativity and puck distribution at the MHL/VHL level are actually just as impressive as his scoring prowess despite what his stats would indicate at a glance. And he was often the primary puck carrier/playmaker at those levels.

I did not manage to see that many games of his, but the ones I saw at those levels (mostly VHL) this year he was just shining out there. And he was just consistently dangerous as an all-around offensive threat on the ice. So much so that I'd say that I personally haven't yet seen a better draft-eligible prospect playing in those leagues.

And I say that while remembering Kucherov obliterating the MHL in his draft year, Miroschnichenko and Yurov looking amazing last year, and many more since I started really paying attention to prospects (about 2006/2007 or so).

Seriously, forget the russian factor and geopolitics and just draft Michkov. Bet on his supreme talent and intelligence on the ice, they don't come around that often.

Sure, there is some amount of risk involved, and your team will have to wait a little while before getting him, but if things go right then you laugh all the way to the bank as your team welcomes a great offensive player in its lineup (with 50 goals, 100+ pts/season potential) when Michkov does come over from Russia in 2026 or so.

As a bonus, because there is some uncertainty involving Russia then you could even potentially "steal" Michkov and get him much lower in the draft than his skillset would normally warrant in a more "standard" geopolitical context.

As a sidenote, Michkov would be my personal #2 at the draft after Bedard. But I can understand favoring Fantilli and Carlsson above him given that they are also awesome, will play a more important position at the NHL level, and would appear as "safer", more "politically-correct" choices for GMs given the situation with Russia/Ukraine.

I don't agree personally, but Fantilli and Carlsson above Michkov at the draft is a reasonable position to defend. Any lower than that though, and it starts getting silly with the crazy potential that this kid has.

Unfortunately I think that this relative "devaluation" of russian prospects will be widespread this year and I suspect that the same inane babble used to argue not taking Michkov after the 4th spot will also negatively impact the ranking of Gulyayev and Simashev (among others still), who should both be top 20 picks (personally think Gulyayev should be top 10/12) but probably will only get drafted in the late first-round. Perhaps even lower if they are unlucky/teams get stubborn, and risk-averse.

Anyways, that's enough ranting/propping up Michkov's tires for one day. Any more than this and they will be propped so high they will levitate and he won't be able to drive. Cheers and have a good day.

I’ve liked his game in KHL more than the VHL. Michkov has become more well rounded in Sochi.
He’s learning what works and what doesn't at higher levels. He’s adapting.

For that reason I don't want him in the MHL playoffs. There’s little to be gained. There’s only the risk of reverting back to old habits that work against kids but not men.

 

[BB88]

Both of these players have eclipsed 40 goals and 100 points, but they are not franchise players.. Stop with the "they weren't high picks" argument. They always produced elite stats their whole careers, and their success is no surprise to those who followed them.

This is a beyond ridiculous post.

Neither of them were generational prospects at 18y.
They developed later into franchise player but they were never generational prospects pre draft

 

[BB88]

That’s because the NHL is inadequate at scouting Russia. Horribly so. Go educate yourself on how Minnesota discovered Kaprizov. It’s embarrassing.

Kucherov set the all-time points record at the U18 his draft year, and everybody knew Kaprizov was gonna be fantastic.

In addition (even though it shouldnt) the Russia factor has always been an influence.

Neither of them were generational or anywhere close to it.
Neither are generational today either

Bedards comps are most scouted generational prospects+ Kane(1st overall).
Nobody is comparing him to lower ranked players than that.

Michkov is not McDavid and I know I will be again called a hater for saying that.
As calling him a franchise prospect and potential superstar is insulting to Michkov

 

[Caser]

Neither of them were generational or anywhere close to it.
Neither are generational today either

Bedards comps are most scouted generational prospects+ Kane(1st overall).
Nobody is comparing him to lower ranked players than that.

Michkov is not McDavid and I know I will be again called a hater for saying that.
As calling him a franchise prospect and potential superstar is insulting to Michkov

Maybe you should kind of define "franchise prospect" and "generational prospect", because from what I'm seeing so far literally noone in this thread is able to guess what exactly you mean by those.

Preferably with examples, like was Alex Daigle a generational prospect? Was Pastrnak a franchise prospect?

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

Record is a record but as it’s been said and needs to be said the competition isn’t that great.

0 top5 picks
1 9th overall pick
2 10th overall picks.

So you really want to see a franchise prospect to have the best stats from all the pre draft prospects

But his productivity is also better than Ovechkin and Malkin in the RSL. I didn't think the KHL was materially different than the RSL...

 

[Zine]

But his productivity is also better than Ovechkin and Malkin in the RSL. I didn't think the KHL was materially different than the RSL...

The KHL is much better than the old RSL.

 

[Zine]

Neither of them were generational or anywhere close to it.
Neither are generational today either

Bedards comps are most scouted generational prospects+ Kane(1st overall).
Nobody is comparing him to lower ranked players than that.

Michkov is not McDavid and I know I will be again called a hater for saying that.
As calling him a franchise prospect and potential superstar is insulting to Michkov

Now you're doing a strawman. Nobody (or hardly anybody) is comparing Michkov to McDavid. When all is over McDavid might be in a tier just below Gretzky, Lemieux, Howe and Orr.

Facts: Michkov is significantly outproducing franchise players like Kucherov and Kaprizov; who are arguably the best wingers in the game.
He's significantly outproducing Malkin in a more modernized and difficult KHL. He's slightly outproducing Ovechkin in a more modernized and difficult KHL.

Does this make him generational? But it's not a stretch to throw the term out there when discussing his potential.....especially when he's been every bit as good as Bedard when they've played in the same tournaments.

 

[NTDP]

Matvei Michkov will be a special player. He's too good not to be. I don't think anyone should compare him or anybody to McDavid right now, the only player that "could" be a McDavid type is Bedard but I still think he's a Tier below him even though he's scoring at a crazy clip in the WHL. No one comes at you like McDavid does.

Anyway if Fantilli goes 2 I'd take Michkov at 3. I don't see Carlsson as a better player at all, I think that's just group think with people following the general online scouting community. Honestly what does Carlsson do that Michkov can't? Look at these two Highlight clips that go into detail on his overall game and see if the size difference really matters, he plays like he's 6'-5

In this first one pay attention at 3:36 - for those with his size concerns, watch this compete and fending off the check along the boards. This kid has a lot more strength than people think. The way he plays it doesn't matter he's a wing, he's all over the ice. I know some will say I posted clips from two tournaments - but he was an underager here and dominated. He's the same player today just playing at a very high level in the KHL, again if he was at the World Juniors this year I think many would not have Carlsson ranked ahead of him.

 

[majormajor]

Anyway if Fantilli goes 2 I'd take Michkov at 3. I don't see Carlsson as a better player at all, I think that's just group think with people following the general online scouting community. Honestly what does Carlsson do that Michkov can't? Look at these two Highlight clips that go into detail on his overall game and see if the size difference really matters, he plays like he's 6'-5

Carry the puck at length and extend plays vs pro defenses. Use his frame to ward off pressure and buy time for a pass.