I haven't read the whole thread, so I might ask questions that have already been answered sorry.
If we only look at stats, this year 2 players in the CHL really stand out from the rest: Dumais and Connor Bedard. I've heard the criticism for Dumais: He's slow and small which is a pretty rare combo for an NHL player. My question: What does he do so well that other players don't do? (mostly older players since he's only 18 in a year where there are 20 years old players)
Also what are your projections on him (for those who watch him play)?
You can also redirect me to another post if my questions are already answered
Dumais is extremely talented, his hockey sense is also absolutely great, and he shoots the puck well, but the most important thing is that Dumais has figured out the juniors game to a level few are able to reach.
Dumais knows how to spot and exploit holes in defensive coverage at the junior level at an elite level, and it speaks volumes about his hockey IQ, no doubt about it. His production is also unbelievable, and it really shows his will and determination to succeed, which bode well for further development.
That said, the problem I have with evaluating Dumais' performance with the Mooseheads on the simple honus of production is that quite a few of the plays Dumais makes in the QMJHL simply won't be there at the NHL level. Not when you consider his lack of size/strength, and the fact that his skating is still slightly weaker than NHL-average as of right now.
As things currently stand, Dumais likes to hold onto the puck and try to stretch-out plays to create greater offensive chances for himself and his teammates. The crux of that ability lies in his great puck skills, his ability to maintain puck possession, but mainly his manipulation of defenses (through good passes and feints), and quick thinking.
I don't worry much about Dumais' hockey sense and his decisions with the puck not translating to the NHL. His hockey sense is too great for him to fail in that sense, and I'm sure his mind will adapt to the pro game. My main concern is that even if Dumais is a ++ thinker of the game with nice skills, his sky-high production and effectiveness offensively right now come with him being able to create time and space for himself, thus majorly increasing his options offensively.
But, should his raw tools fail to improve as he moves up the ranks, the options Dumais will have the luxury to choose from offensively at the NHL level will be much, much lesser than they are this year in Juniors.
And if the prognostics of nearly all your options offensively are bad because you can't create that little bit of extra time and space that's sorely needed before defensive coverage gets to you, then no matter how smart you are you will only be able to make a bad/sub-optimal play.
The metaphor might be (quite) a bit clunky, but think of it like that; Give absolutely crappy hands at all times to a poker genius and ask him to win a Poker tournament against lesser, but still really intelligent players. Does he succeed? Short answer is no, long answer is hell no. Without better options, no matter how good the bluffs, the bets and everything, he can only lose to the better hand that someone at the table has.
BTW, those are exactly the same concerns I have with Joshua Roy. Just that Roy has more room to grow into size-wise, better defensive fundamentals, lesser skating, less intensity, and is also less efficient (more cute) with the puck. Given those facts I'd say Dumais is still a better prospect overall, but both have pretty clear question marks when it comes to to how transferable their skills are to the NHL level.
Thankfully for Jordan Dumais, his future career in the NHL is not determined by how he looks as a player right now, but on how he will manage to grow and improve from now. The weaknesses are definitely there, but so are the strengths, and it remains to be seen how those change as Dumais ages, as he progresses.
Will Dumais thrive at the NHL level, or will he bust? I don't know, no one does. But I'll be cheering for him.
