Prospect Info: Rutger McGroarty, 2022 NHL Draft, #14 Overall

[Whileee]

Neither was on my list a few weeks ago. But I see McG's value down. So theirs is up relative to his. Neither is a sure thing but both have potential.

I don't know them well enough to go beyond that. The assumption, of course, is that Jets scouts are satisfied.

There is always the option of letting McG play the full season in Michigan but then he is getting pretty close to UFA. I don't like that risk under the present circumstances.

I think it's possible that some teams won't offer their best value now until they see McGroarty perform next season and he's ready to sign and turn pro. If he has a great season, the Jets will have lots of potential trade partners and McGroarty will be ready to go pro. Also, if McGroarty is ready to turn pro and doesn't mind the Jets, they could sign him. Either way, letting him have a big NCAA season might be the best scenario now.

 

[KingBogo]

I think it's possible that some teams won't offer their best value now until they see McGroarty perform next season and he's ready to sign and turn pro. If he has a great season, the Jets will have lots of potential trade partners and McGroarty will be ready to go pro. Also, if McGroarty is ready to turn pro and doesn't mind the Jets, they could sign him. Either way, letting him have a big NCAA season might be the best scenario now.

And what happens if Rutger has a down season on a depleted team as he feels sorry for himself? Or worse yet has a season ending injury while having a down season, and there are questions about is health as the NCAA season ends and the run up to the 2025 draft? Then Chevy is f*****. I'd much prefer getting something close to even value now and move on.

 

[Whileee]

And what happens if Rutger has a down season on a depleted team as he feels sorry for himself? Or worse yet has a season ending injury while having a down season, and there are questions about is health as the NCAA season ends and the run up to the 2025 draft? Then Chevy is f*****. I'd much prefer getting something close to even value now and move on.

Well sure, if Chevy can get good value now we'd all be happy. But that ship might have sailed as teams decided to defer any trade discussions until next trade deadline because McGroarty plans to stay in college, regardless. So, Jets might be forced to wait and hope he has a great NCAA season.

In any case, I think the window to trade before he goes back to college will close soon, and so that might be the next logical unofficial trade "deadline" for McGroarty. If there are still teams very interested then they might be motivated to trade now as the clock ticks down.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Both those prospects seem underwhelming to me. Ceulems has had a real struggle adapting to pro to date. He's tracking a lot like Stanley and that isn't really a good thing.

The other player would be pretty far behind Lambert, Chibrikov etc on our forward depth chart.

Really would only want Johnson or Mateychuk from them.

Beluz had a pretty strong resume going into his 1st pro season last year. He produced well for a rookie. Not as well as Lambert, but still well.

Ceulemans was on a good trajectory through 2 seasons in NCAA. Had a bit of a disappointing 1st season in the AHL but he is still a RHD with good size and a 2 way game. I think he will bounce back in the A this year, no guarantee of course.

I could name several players, in addition to Johnson and Mateychuk who I would prefer over Beluz and Ceulemans. I have lowered my sights. I don't think McGro returns any of them.

I think it's possible that some teams won't offer their best value now until they see McGroarty perform next season and he's ready to sign and turn pro. If he has a great season, the Jets will have lots of potential trade partners and McGroarty will be ready to go pro. Also, if McGroarty is ready to turn pro and doesn't mind the Jets, they could sign him. Either way, letting him have a big NCAA season might be the best scenario now.

It might be, yes. But I am leery of letting it get that close to UFA, especially after the way he went off the rails this off-season.

 

[WolfHouse]

Beluz had a pretty strong resume going into his 1st pro season last year. He produced well for a rookie. Not as well as Lambert, but still well.

Ceulemans was on a good trajectory through 2 seasons in NCAA. Had a bit of a disappointing 1st season in the AHL but he is still a RHD with good size and a 2 way game. I think he will bounce back in the A this year, no guarantee of course.

I could name several players, in addition to Johnson and Mateychuk who I would prefer over Beluz and Ceulemans. I have lowered my sights. I don't think McGro returns any of them.



It might be, yes. But I am leery of letting it get that close to UFA, especially after the way he went off the rails this off-season.

Johnson seems like a poor man's kyle connor... not sold but I also have watched columbus games really

 

[Weezeric]

Beluz had a pretty strong resume going into his 1st pro season last year. He produced well for a rookie. Not as well as Lambert, but still well.

Ceulemans was on a good trajectory through 2 seasons in NCAA. Had a bit of a disappointing 1st season in the AHL but he is still a RHD with good size and a 2 way game. I think he will bounce back in the A this year, no guarantee of course.

I could name several players, in addition to Johnson and Mateychuk who I would prefer over Beluz and Ceulemans. I have lowered my sights. I don't think McGro returns any of them.



It might be, yes. But I am leery of letting it get that close to UFA, especially after the way he went off the rails this off-season.

It’s not really that close to UFA. It’s potentially two years of ELC contract if he wants to burn a year at the end of the season.

 

[surixon]

Beluz had a pretty strong resume going into his 1st pro season last year. He produced well for a rookie. Not as well as Lambert, but still well.

Ceulemans was on a good trajectory through 2 seasons in NCAA. Had a bit of a disappointing 1st season in the AHL but he is still a RHD with good size and a 2 way game. I think he will bounce back in the A this year, no guarantee of course.

I could name several players, in addition to Johnson and Mateychuk who I would prefer over Beluz and Ceulemans. I have lowered my sights. I don't think McGro returns any of them.



It might be, yes. But I am leery of letting it get that close to UFA, especially after the way he went off the rails this off-season.

Yes Beluz had a good year but he's tracking more as a middle 6 type talent and we have a lot of those already in the system and not much in the way of spots for them. I have no clue how to rate McGroarty's value.

Ceulemans though was always more touted as an offensive player then a defensive one and his points didn't translate that amazingly to college and didn't translate at all to the AHL to date. So to me he's not amazing defensively and offers little offense at this point. I'd pass.

 

[Whileee]

Beluz had a pretty strong resume going into his 1st pro season last year. He produced well for a rookie. Not as well as Lambert, but still well.

Ceulemans was on a good trajectory through 2 seasons in NCAA. Had a bit of a disappointing 1st season in the AHL but he is still a RHD with good size and a 2 way game. I think he will bounce back in the A this year, no guarantee of course.

I could name several players, in addition to Johnson and Mateychuk who I would prefer over Beluz and Ceulemans. I have lowered my sights. I don't think McGro returns any of them.



It might be, yes. But I am leery of letting it get that close to UFA, especially after the way he went off the rails this off-season.

He'll still be more than a year away from free agency at the TDL last season. I highly doubt that he'll want to spend a full 4 years in college. There's a risk that he stagnates and never really catches up with his development to be a significant player in the NHL. It would also be a big hit to stay an extra year in college instead of the NHL. I think that if he has a strong season there will be multiple teams interested in acquiring him at the TDL or after (for non-playoff teams), and unless he decides to stay 4 years I think the Jets will find a trade partner.

If he has a bad season and starts to sag as a prospect, then maybe all this fuss was over not much, anyway.

 

[Whileee]

Yes Beluz had a good year but he's tracking more as a middle 6 type talent and we have a lot of those already in the system and not much in the way of spots for them. I have no clue how to rate McGroarty's value.

Ceulemans though was always more touted as an offensive player then a defensive one and his points didn't translate that amazingly to college and didn't translate at all to the AHL to date. So to me he's not amazing defensively and offers little offense at this point. I'd pass.

FWIW... Belluz is ranked #7 among CBJ prospects and Ceulemans #11 (by Scott Wheeler). I realize that's not the final word on them, but it's not an encouraging perspective. Jets might be better to take a flyer on a prospect like Dumais, who might be a bit too small for the NHL but if he hits he could be a dynamic offensive RW.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Johnson seems like a poor man's kyle connor... not sold but I also have watched columbus games really

It could turn out that KC is a poor man's Johnson. Too soon to say - and he is a C.

I don't know anything about his injury either. Is it something that will affect him going forward, or not?

Can't see getting him for McGro unless he is damaged goods, one way or another.

It’s not really that close to UFA. It’s potentially two years of ELC contract if he wants to burn a year at the end of the season.

But it is then just one more year in NCAA. That's too close for comfort, given the state of the relationship.

Yes Beluz had a good year but he's tracking more as a middle 6 type talent and we have a lot of those already in the system and not much in the way of spots for them. I have no clue how to rate McGroarty's value.

Ceulemans though was always more touted as an offensive player then a defensive one and his points didn't translate that amazingly to college and didn't translate at all to the AHL to date. So to me he's not amazing defensively and offers little offense at this point. I'd pass.

Fair enough.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

He'll still be more than a year away from free agency at the TDL last season. I highly doubt that he'll want to spend a full 4 years in college. There's a risk that he stagnates and never really catches up with his development to be a significant player in the NHL. It would also be a big hit to stay an extra year in college instead of the NHL. I think that if he has a strong season there will be multiple teams interested in acquiring him at the TDL or after (for non-playoff teams), and unless he decides to stay 4 years I think the Jets will find a trade partner.

If he has a bad season and starts to sag as a prospect, then maybe all this fuss was over not much, anyway.

If he sags, yes. But I don't expect that.

If he has a very strong season there will be better offers than right now but I think he will still be somewhat tainted.

One more year of NCAA. The wait till mid August is a small factor, IMO. If he won't sign now then I think there is a good chance he won't sign a year from now either. He can play his 4th year, wait till August and have a bidding war for his services and pick his landing spot. His ELC would be only 1 year at that point.

I'm not predicting that he would go the UFA route. But I consider the risk to be too high. Keep in mind the logic of what he is doing now.

 

[Weezeric]

If he sags, yes. But I don't expect that.

If he has a very strong season there will be better offers than right now but I think he will still be somewhat tainted.

One more year of NCAA. The wait till mid August is a small factor, IMO. If he won't sign now then I think there is a good chance he won't sign a year from now either. He can play his 4th year, wait till August and have a bidding war for his services and pick his landing spot. His ELC would be only 1 year at that point.

I'm not predicting that he would go the UFA route. But I consider the risk to be too high. Keep in mind the logic of what he is doing now.

His ELC would be 2 years I believe due to his age. He would still have two years of RFA status after that. Definitely not the path he would want if he thinks he’s ready now..

 

[Flair Hay]

He'll still be more than a year away from free agency at the TDL last season. I highly doubt that he'll want to spend a full 4 years in college. There's a risk that he stagnates and never really catches up with his development to be a significant player in the NHL. It would also be a big hit to stay an extra year in college instead of the NHL. I think that if he has a strong season there will be multiple teams interested in acquiring him at the TDL or after (for non-playoff teams), and unless he decides to stay 4 years I think the Jets will find a trade partner.

If he has a bad season and starts to sag as a prospect, then maybe all this fuss was over not much, anyway.

Yeah well said Whilleee.

If he really sticks this out and goes back to college, and there is no trade...it is what it is.

If he goes spends another year outside the NHL and frickin dominates, teams are going to want the guy. Possibly even mid season if he is really living up to the hype he started building last year.

And if he stagnates a bit and does well but not amazing, we'll at that point with his tools we are likely looking at more of a middle six guy. Blake Coleman is a comp I've read a few times.

As you said,at that point it's probably not the end of the world. Not to mention he would still need to stay in college another year to get to UFA.

Sitting out two full years to get put of the peg is pretty insane price to pay lol

 

[ps241]

It’s interesting. I don’t think there is allot of Jets downside for Mr. Magoo to go back to college in September. However, he will need to eat what he kills, he can still be playing games late in the NHL season if he delivers this season. He has to play himself into a position where teams believe he is NHL ready. If he doesn’t, then his team overplayed their hand.

As much as I like resolution to issues I do enjoy watching Chevy work towards deals on his time line. It might be a bit deflating for Magoo to be back in College when all his buddies are in the NHL, who knows really how the pressure points on this deal fluctuate.

 

[ecolad]

It’s interesting. I don’t think there is allot of Jets downside for Mr. Magoo to go back to college in September. However, he will need to eat what he kills, he can still be playing games late in the NHL season if he delivers this season. He has to play himself into a position where teams believe he is NHL ready. If he doesn’t, then his team overplayed their hand.

As much as I like resolution to issues I do enjoy watching Chevy work towards deals on his time line. It might be a bit deflating for Magoo to be back in College when all his buddies are in the NHL, who knows really how the pressure points on this deal fluctuate.

I`d guess that he is already feeling pressure - wanting to get to the big show now, rather than play this year in college. I seem to recall, maybe incorrectly, that Barlow indicated at Development Camp, that he was talking to "Rut", and that "Rutger was experiencing severe FOMO", or something to that effect. I suppose that could be interpreted different ways, but I`d take it as a sign his main objective is to get to the NHL with his buddies NOW. My guess is that his family/advisors may be just over-playing their hand.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

His ELC would be 2 years I believe due to his age. He would still have two years of RFA status after that. Definitely not the path he would want if he thinks he’s ready now..

If he thinks he's ready now he doesn't need to demand guarantees.

 

[jetsforever]

I`d guess that he is already feeling pressure - wanting to get to the big show now, rather than play this year in college. I seem to recall, maybe incorrectly, that Barlow indicated at Development Camp, that he was talking to "Rut", and that "Rutger was experiencing severe FOMO", or something to that effect. I suppose that could be interpreted different ways, but I`d take it as a sign his main objective is to get to the NHL with his buddies NOW. My guess is that his family/advisors may be just over-playing their hand.

I would just wait and force him to sign or go back to NCAA, and then in March or whatever he may be very tempted to sign and get into a few games, at which point (assuming there's a spot) his main issue would be resolved anyway.

 

[Eyeseeing]

I`d guess that he is already feeling pressure - wanting to get to the big show now, rather than play this year in college. I seem to recall, maybe incorrectly, that Barlow indicated at Development Camp, that he was talking to "Rut", and that "Rutger was experiencing severe FOMO", or something to that effect. I suppose that could be interpreted different ways, but I`d take it as a sign his main objective is to get to the NHL with his buddies NOW. My guess is that his family/advisors may be just over-playing their hand.

Help me
FOMO

PS get off my lawn

 

[hockeyarena]

Help me
FOMO

PS get off my lawn

Fear of missing out. Because apparently being a guaranteed millionaire and smashing college girls for another year is "missing out"

 

[Eyeseeing]

Fear of missing out. Because apparently being a guaranteed millionaire and smashing college girls for another year is "missing out"

Thanks

 

[Jet]

And what happens if Rutger has a down season on a depleted team as he feels sorry for himself? Or worse yet has a season ending injury while having a down season, and there are questions about is health as the NCAA season ends and the run up to the 2025 draft? Then Chevy is f*****. I'd much prefer getting something close to even value now and move on.

I think right now both player and org are gambling.

McGroarty is gambling a hell of a lot more though as his very career could be on the line. This could very well end up being a cautionary tale for prospects of his ilk playing games like this.

I trust that Chevy has a low bar to hit in a move and will be patient, even if that means waiting a year.

The good news for the Jets is that we still have a 1st round pick from that draft that is starting to look like he should have been picked around where mcg got picked or perhaps even higher. You never want to lose a prospect for nothing but Lambert does make a good hedge.

 

[kylbaz]

Just get one of Columbus' D prospects and call it a day. They're trying to put a competitive team out and mcgroaty could slide in right now for them.

 

[DRW204]

It’s interesting. I don’t think there is allot of Jets downside for Mr. Magoo to go back to college in September. However, he will need to eat what he kills, he can still be playing games late in the NHL season if he delivers this season. He has to play himself into a position where teams believe he is NHL ready. If he doesn’t, then his team overplayed their hand.

As much as I like resolution to issues I do enjoy watching Chevy work towards deals on his time line. It might be a bit deflating for Magoo to be back in College when all his buddies are in the NHL, who knows really how the pressure points on this deal fluctuate.

ppl on this forum were projecting he is NHL ready and would be a TDL signing this last year, and that did not happen. not sure if we expect the same next year w/ the Jets bringing up nearly the same roster back, & then if they're in a PO spot may go for trades. so no guarantee.

even if injuries occurred while in the AHL.... the Jets had KC, Vilardi and Scheifele injured, plus Perfetti scratched, not a single prospect got playing time till the last meaningless game of the year.

Scheifele came across like this at that age. Never know what fame and wealth will do to these kids. Just have to hope Rutger doesn't turn into MeGroarty.

 

[Flair Hay]

I think right now both player and org are gambling.

McGroarty is gambling a hell of a lot more though as his very career could be on the line. This could very well end up being a cautionary tale for prospects of his ilk playing games like this.

I trust that Chevy has a low bar to hit in a move and will be patient, even if that means waiting a year.

The good news for the Jets is that we still have a 1st round pick from that draft that is starting to look like he should have been picked around where mcg got picked or perhaps even higher. You never want to lose a prospect for nothing but Lambert does make a good hedge.

It's true. The longer this goes on, the more risjy it gets for both sides.

The more into next season this goes, the more Rutger needs to dominate at the college level to justify a high trade price for the Jets. The other team needs to want to give him a roster spot without being with an NHL team most of the year.

And the longer this goes on, the more likely it gets Rutger would be looking at playing a 4th year in college if no trade is made.

And it's gotta be so tough to kiss and make up, because Rutger knows he is stuck here for at least 5 years if he does lol. Maybe he realizes that ain't so bad I'd the alternative is 2 more years in college...

Who knows?

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

And what happens if Rutger has a down season on a depleted team as he feels sorry for himself? Or worse yet has a season ending injury while having a down season, and there are questions about is health as the NCAA season ends and the run up to the 2025 draft? Then Chevy is f*****. I'd much prefer getting something close to even value now and move on.

If the value is at least close? Absolutely! End this with the first decent offer. Don't settle for pennies on the dollar though.