Speculation: Rumours, Speculation, and all Armchair-GM-ing needs! v.11

[Flames Fanatic]

TSN has their Flames offseason plan. Of course it wouldn't be a Cullen article without some advanced stats jargon.

Also the idea that Bouma is on the trading block is laughable.

http://www.tsn.ca/off-season-game-plan-calgary-flames-1.304035

 

[Taranis]

TSN has their Flames offseason plan. Of course it wouldn't be a Cullen article without some advanced stats jargon.

Also the idea that Bouma is on the trading block is laughable.

http://www.tsn.ca/off-season-game-plan-calgary-flames-1.304035

Apparently SOB is coming back

 

[InfinityIggy]

TSN has their Flames offseason plan. Of course it wouldn't be a Cullen article without some advanced stats jargon.

Also the idea that Bouma is on the trading block is laughable.

http://www.tsn.ca/off-season-game-plan-calgary-flames-1.304035

Interesting stat about Colborne:

among 359 forwards to play at least 500 minutes at 5-on-5 last season, he ranked 349th with 3.91 shots/60 minutes.

I have been saying since Colborne arrived here that he needs to shoot more. Guy has an underrated shot.

 

[Pirate King Luffy]

Interesting stat about Colborne:



I have been saying since Colborne arrived here that he needs to shoot more. Guy has an underrated shot.

He's too busy taking penalties.

 

[Ynnek]

Lucic and Beauchemin added would actually be nice to get.

 

[Flames Fanatic]

Interesting stat about Colborne:



I have been saying since Colborne arrived here that he needs to shoot more. Guy has an underrated shot.

I've been busy saying he's a waste of a roster spot

He impressed me more in the playoffs. But he did jack **** to deserve his ice time for more than half of the regular season.

Only reason I don't dislike him more is because quite frankly we don't have anyone to replace on him on the RW yet.

 

[Bouma Fett*]

Guys, I hate to break it to you, but Bouma had poor possession stats and an unsustainable shooting %. He has to go

 

[Johnny GODreau]

Lucic and Beauchemin added would actually be nice to get.

Lucic too slow, and he's a UFA at the end of the season. Beauchemin isn't coming back to Canada. He doesn't like the media.

 

[Calculon]

Poirier and Wotherspoon for a Lucic that's one year away from UFA and looking for a raise on his 6M salary is terrible for Calgary. And given Lucic needs a healthy and productive Krejci beside him just be even remotely effective, it's really not worth trading assets for him at all.

That being, if he makes it free agency next summer, I wouldn't mind the Flames making a run at him if they have they have the cap space.

 

[Flames Fanatic]

Guys, I hate to break it to you, but Bouma had poor possession stats and an unsustainable shooting %. He has to go

 

[Bouma Fett*]

Maybe we can get a 4th back in this draft for him if we're lucky.

 

[FlamesFreak4]

I would be ecstatic if we traded for Lucic.

Play one of Bennett/Backlund at RW and you have yourselves a pretty wicked top 6.

Gaudreau - Monahan - Hudler
Lucic - Backlund - Bennett

This also bumps Bouma and Colborne onto the 3rd line where they probably should be.

 

[slappipappi]

T

Also the idea that Bouma is on the trading block is laughable.

Considering he is 2 years away from UFA, had what is likely an unsustainable career year, [mod], why wouldn't the Flames see what he can bring?

Contenders generally don't get to stay contenders signing guys like Bouma to long term contracts.

Now, the Flames wouldn't be expected to give him away, but if someone wants to overpay, they should definitely listen.

 

[MonyontheMoney]

Considering he is 2 years away from UFA, had what is likely an unsustainable career year, [mod], why wouldn't the Flames see what he can bring?

Contenders generally don't get to stay contenders signing guys like Bouma to long term contracts.

Now, the Flames wouldn't be expected to give him away, but if someone wants to overpay, they should definitely listen.

Why wouldn't you wait to see if it was unsustainable before jumping to conclusions? Even if it was Bouma is a very good 3rd line player who plays his role to a T. Great PK'er, physical, big, mean, will do anything to win and can chip in offensively. Guys like Bouma are essential parts of a championship team, even if he regresses offensively.

 

[SmellOfVictory]

Why wouldn't you wait to see if it was unsustainable before jumping to conclusions? Even if it was Bouma is a very good 3rd line player who plays his role to a T. Great PK'er, physical, big, mean, will do anything to win and can chip in offensively. Guys like Bouma are essential parts of a championship team, even if he regresses offensively.

Bouma is not a very good 3rd line player. He's an awesome 4th line player/borderline 3rd line player. He's the same kind of guy Prust was (without being a big idiot). He's guaranteed to regress offensively, and is frequently injured. Is he really likeable? Absolutely. Does he put in huge effort? No doubt. Do championship teams have guys like him? Yes. Do they overpay those guys? Normally not.

I'm a huge fan of Bouma, but if (and this is an if, because I haven't heard anything about him playing "hardball" with the Flames) he's getting tough to sign or demanding relatively large dollars, I think it's entirely worthwhile to have another team overpay for him on the trade market for a career year.

 

[Johnny Hoxville]

As much as I love Boums, you don't pay a dime over 1.5 for him, ever. It's the reason Sutter let Nystrom go when he wanted over 1.3. Teams like the B's and Kings get into cap trouble for overpaying for guys like that. Chicago usually (minus Bickell) does a nice job of continually using players on ELC's and playing them in their bottom 6. If Boums is asking for 2+, well you trade him and play Wolf, Ferland and Hathaway. In a cap era, you save your dollars for your goalscorers. It's just tough because you do need guys like him, but you can't let their folklore outgrow their contract.

 

[Calculon]

Nystrom left because he wanted four years while Sutter would only give him three. He was even willing to sign for less here than for what the Wild offered.

Anyway, Bouma's career year makes him a prime candidate for a one year 'do it again' contract. And given how he plays, easy to see his camp asking for a much longer deal, i.e. three or four years. Him being a hard signing wouldn't surprise me in the slightest - if he had a better pedigree, his ice time and offensive output would get him at least 2.5M-3M on a three year deal.

When it comes to players like this, term is far more important than cap hit. With Bouma's shot blocking style, it makes far more sense to overpay in cap hit than in term. I'd be fine with a three year deal at 2M-2.25M per or a four year deal at 1.75M-2M per. Bouma seems like he could be good shutdown winger alongside Backlund in the future. Good for around 10-15 goals, 25-30 points in a season while being an energy player and a valuable penalty killer. His current value around the league would be marginal - doubt a team would trade more than a third rounder for him at best- so it doesn't make sense to move him. Not unless his demands are completely unreasonable (3M+) and he won't budge on them.

 

[slappipappi]

Bouma is not a very good 3rd line player. He's an awesome 4th line player/borderline 3rd line player. He's the same kind of guy Prust was (without being a big idiot). He's guaranteed to regress offensively, and is frequently injured. Is he really likeable? Absolutely. Does he put in huge effort? No doubt. Do championship teams have guys like him? Yes. Do they overpay those guys? Normally not.

I'm a huge fan of Bouma, but if (and this is an if, because I haven't heard anything about him playing "hardball" with the Flames) he's getting tough to sign or demanding relatively large dollars, I think it's entirely worthwhile to have another team overpay for him on the trade market for a career year.

It's true that contending teams have solid 3rd liners, but those 3rd liners tend to change from year to year. Contending teams tend to not sign those 3rd/4th liners to $3M+ long term contracts, and when they do, they tend to regret it.

Bouma will likely be cheaper than that until he hits UFA.

My point is if you wait until he proves his stats are unsustainable (and I bee live they are), you've lost his trade value.

He may never be worth more to the Flames than right now as trade bait.

[mod]

 

[Johnny Hoxville]

From my recollection, I remember that Sutter offered him what Glencross was making at the time but the Wild offered more. I can't remember much about the term (other than it being a multi year offer), but you're probably right Calculon. I'm pretty sure it was rumoured he was offered around 1.3 based on what Glencross made, if I'm wrong on this I'll gladly own up to it.

I seriously wouldn't pay Bouma over 1.5, no matter how much I love him. Maybe...maybe, I go to 1.75 on a 2 year at most but more than that and I move him.

 

[MonyontheMoney]

Bouma is not a very good 3rd line player. He's an awesome 4th line player/borderline 3rd line player. He's the same kind of guy Prust was (without being a big idiot). He's guaranteed to regress offensively, and is frequently injured. Is he really likeable? Absolutely. Does he put in huge effort? No doubt. Do championship teams have guys like him? Yes. Do they overpay those guys? Normally not.

I'm a huge fan of Bouma, but if (and this is an if, because I haven't heard anything about him playing "hardball" with the Flames) he's getting tough to sign or demanding relatively large dollars, I think it's entirely worthwhile to have another team overpay for him on the trade market for a career year.

Why is a regression "guaranteed"? In my mind it is all but guaranteed. He's 25 and why can't it be a case of a player coming into his own? Sure it is just one season of good numbers but that should serve as evidence that he is capable of performing at that level.

He has missed a grand total of 8 games the past 2 years...That's pretty good considering his style of play if you ask me.

Personally I would be very OK with paying Bouma between 2 and 2.5 per year. I am telling you now if Bouma is moved this offseason without giving him a shot to prove that his year wasn't a fluke it is a HUGE mistake

 

[MonyontheMoney]

As much as I love Boums, you don't pay a dime over 1.5 for him, ever. It's the reason Sutter let Nystrom go when he wanted over 1.3. Teams like the B's and Kings get into cap trouble for overpaying for guys like that. Chicago usually (minus Bickell) does a nice job of continually using players on ELC's and playing them in their bottom 6. If Boums is asking for 2+, well you trade him and play Wolf, Ferland and Hathaway. In a cap era, you save your dollars for your goalscorers. It's just tough because you do need guys like him, but you can't let their folklore outgrow their contract.

Quite a different situation if you ask me. In 2010 the salary cap was at 59.4 mill compared to anywhere from 69-73 for next year. Bouma is 25 coming off a 34 point year, whereas Nystrom was 28 coming off a 19 point year. Like I said before 2-2.5 is an OK deal for him IMO.

For me Wolf was quite underwhelming when he played with the big club this year, he not fast enough to be a full-time NHL'er IMO. Ferland looks like a player but we can't hand out spots based on 35 games.

 

[Calculon]

From my recollection, I remember that Sutter offered him what Glencross was making at the time but the Wild offered more. I can't remember much about the term (other than it being a multi year offer), but you're probably right Calculon. I'm pretty sure it was rumoured he was offered around 1.3 based on what Glencross made, if I'm wrong on this I'll gladly own up to it.

A little from column A, a little from column B, it seems. It was two and three years, not three and four, so my bad there.

“I love Calgary,†Nystrom said. “I love all the guys there. I love the fans. It was a tough decision. It’s unfortunate there’s a business side of the game.â€

The Wild offered Nystrom an annual salary of $1.4 million. US over three years.

“It’s my living,†he said. “You’ve got to do what’s best for you and your life sometimes — even f it upsets people.

“I had the greatest time in Calgary. Great experiences. I was so torn. It was a tough decision, but I think it was the right one.â€

The Flames offered Nystrom money in the range of Curtis Glencross ($1.2 million US) and David Moss ($1.3 million.)

Sutter refuses to give anyone a contract that extends beyond two years.

“Three years is obviously also a factor,†Nystrom said. “There could be a potential lockout in three years. If I signed a two-year deal, there’s going to be a lot of guys coming off contracts then. “Three years was really hard to turn down.â€​

I seriously wouldn't pay Bouma over 1.5, no matter how much I love him. Maybe...maybe, I go to 1.75 on a 2 year at most but more than that and I move him.

Two years would take Bouma to UFA I believe.

 

[Johnny Hoxville]

Yeah I remember Glencross being an important benchmark for Sutter and him not willing to go much over that. After reading that, I do recall the CBA being instrumental for the Flames in not handing deals that extended years beyond when the agreement expired. I loved Nystrom to, but Sutter made the right call in letting him walk.

Now I agree that Bouma has a case to pay him over 2 per, and beyond 2 years. One needs to look no further than Raymond's deal, the difference being though Raymond was a UFA signing and signed with the intention of playing in the top 6. It's probable that Bouma regresses offensively and experiences injuries over the next 2 years, we also have guys pushing for spots with more upside, so I have a cap on how much I would pay him. Again I love Boyma, but bottom 6 spots are the easiest to replace, usually are done so internally and for less money. We already have Raymond and Engellands contracts which are overpaid. We have big extensions coming up over the next few years, it's important that we don't overpay players in their respective roles.

Yes Bouma has probably earned more, that doesn't mean we should pay him what he wants.

 

[Johnny Hoxville]

To add, at my work I have a cashier who's getting paid $20 an hour. She does a lot more than just run the register, but at the end of the day her job description is still a cashier. She wants a raise for everything else she does, but we can't pay her more until she gets a promotion because we have a cap on what a cashier can make. I'm not saying it's right, I think she deserves more money, but it's what we can afford to pay someone in her position. If we paid her more, were better off letting her go and hiring a new cashier for $15 an hour.

 

[Kanye]

To add, at my work I have a cashier who's getting paid $20 an hour. She does a lot more than just run the register, but at the end of the day her job description is still a cashier. She wants a raise for everything else she does, but we can't pay her more until she gets a promotion because we have a cap on what a cashier can make. I'm not saying it's right, I think she deserves more money, but it's what we can afford to pay someone in her position. If we paid her more, were better off letting her go and hiring a new cashier for $15 an hour.

But does your cashier block a lot of shots?