Speculation: Rumours, Speculation, and all Armchair-GM-ing needs! v.11

[Flames Fanatic]

If backlund is getting close to five I shudder to think of what Monahan is going to ask for. Backlund can have a Stajan contract.

 

[Johnny Hoxville]

Why not.

If he gets a big deal I ain't even gonna be mad.

But seriously I think they are way off base, where did they even pull that number out of? I think he will get another short term deal, 2 or 3 years 3.6m per.

This is kind of the amount that I had in mind. As a comparable, Stajan gets paid 3.1 (or just around that amount I think). Backlund does generally play more minutes (when healthy), against harder competition and has a higher ceiling. That said, I think Backlund has limited offensive upside, I think he's considered more of defensive specialist at this point and he's shown that he is not overly durable. There's a lot of things to like about Backlund, but he comes with many inconsistencies as well. I think somewhere around 3.5 on a 3 year deal would be very fair for him.

 

[Johnny GODreau]

I don't want to come off harsh, but in what world is Backlund worth 4m?

He's only worth 2.5, 3m at best. Him being injury prone has affected how much $ he should have been getting, but he won't get it.

Intangibles.

I said the most I'd pay.

Ideally it's something closer to 3.0-3.5m 4-5 years.

 

[Lunatik]

Chris Higgins is a good 3rd line player. Marcus Kruger is a good 3rd line player. Matt Stajan is a good 3rd line player. Darren Helm is a good 3rd line player. You think Bouma is as good as these guys? Fine, but you're biased as hell.

I am biased for calling a guy who did an adequate job as our 2nd line shut down winger a good 3rd liner?? What's next? The grass is blue the sky is green and Michael Jordan was a great baseball player?

 

[CraigsList]

My offer to Backlund is a 3x3.

 

[Johnny GODreau]

Raymond to for Semin, 35th and LW Warren Foegele?

 

[MonyontheMoney]

Backlund does not get 5 mill. I have no idea where the Fan would have gotten that. However, if that is the case, and he's not willing to budge I would definitely look to move him. I'm a huge fan of Backlund but 5 mill for a 3c is WAY too much.

 

[Tkachuk Norris]

Wow Backlund is so under-rated by our fan base. You guys think he should be getting paid like Raymond and Stajan? Come on. He's worth around 4.5*4 years IMO.

He would be the best third line centre in the league. He's a decent number 2. You gotta pay to keep good centres.

 

[CraigsList]

Wow Backlund is so under-rated by our fan base. You guys think he should be getting paid like Raymond and Stajan? Come on. He's worth around 4.5*4 years IMO.

He would be the best third line centre in the league. He's a decent number 2. You gotta pay to keep good centres.

4.5m x 4? I love Backlund and what he brings, but the guy has never even hit 40 points. On top of that, he's been injured in both years of his bridge contract.

 

[MonyontheMoney]

Wow Backlund is so under-rated by our fan base. You guys think he should be getting paid like Raymond and Stajan? Come on. He's worth around 4.5*4 years IMO.

He would be the best third line centre in the league. He's a decent number 2. You gotta pay to keep good centres.

You're right. He is currently a sufficient #2. However, he will not be our #2 centre for much longer, I fully expect him to be reduced to 3c at some point next year with Bennett being given a shot at 2c. Teams cannot pay 4.5-5 mill for a 3c and still have money to use on other core players. The truth is Raymond is significantly overpaid, so that's not a good comparison at all IMO.

 

[Rangediddy]

Backlund does not get 5 mill. I have no idea where the Fan would have gotten that. However, if that is the case, and he's not willing to budge I would definitely look to move him. I'm a huge fan of Backlund but 5 mill for a 3c is WAY too much.

Are the Canes in cap trouble? If so, what about Raymond + for Semin & Victor Rask?

Rask played for the Hitmen, knows the city (I know his billet, said he really enjoyed his time here and always looks forward to playing here), is looking to be a solid 3rd line center and will be more affordable than Backlund. Canes also will likely be picking up one of Strome or Marner (assuming Hanifin goes top 4) so with Eric, Jordan and Strome/Marner, they're pretty well covered at Center.

 

[InfinityIggy]

Wow Backlund is so under-rated by our fan base. You guys think he should be getting paid like Raymond and Stajan? Come on. He's worth around 4.5*4 years IMO.

He would be the best third line centre in the league. He's a decent number 2. You gotta pay to keep good centres.

No, but the thing is that those guys are overpayed based on their role.

 

[Lunatik]

No, but the thing is that those guys are overpayed based on their role.

Also UFA vs RFA

 

[SmellOfVictory]

Chris Higgins - 2.5mill 77GP-12G-24A-36P-+8-73 hits-34 blocked shots 15:47 TOI
Marcus Kruger - 1.325mill 81GP-7G-10A-17P--5-29 hits-50 blocked shots 13:05 TOI
Matt Stajan - 3.125mill 59GP-7G-10A-17P-+7-72 hits-21 blocked shots-12:00 TOI
Darren Helm - 2.125mill 75GP-15G-18A-33P-+7-132 hits-25 blocked shots-15:50 TOI
Lance Bouma - ???? 78GP-16G-18A-34P-+10-264 hits-82 blocked shots-14:01 TOI

How can you say Bouma isn't a good 3rd line player? He is right up there with all the guys you mentioned even above in point production last year, has the best +/- out of all of them, DOUBLED the next closest guy in hits, and had significantly more blocked shots. I don't know what else he could have done to solidify himself as a good 3rd line player. He brought everything you look for in a player in his role and then some. Add to the fact that he and Kruger are the youngest of the 5.

I think we can all agree that Kruger is in for a raise and Helm is on a very good deal for Detroit. I hate to break it to you but Bouma isn't getting below 2 mill a year and I don't see him playing for any team but the Flames in the near future.

Bouma could have 80 hits per game, but if he doesn't make the puck go toward the other end as much as another player, he's not as good. And I fully expect him to drop below 20 points again next season unless he's inexplicably gifted top 6 ice time or a bunch of PP time.

Still, none of that guarantees a thing. Sure his shooting percentage may drop a bit but it won't go all the way back to 6.1% of 2013-14. He is 25 and is coming of his 2nd full NHL season, in which he showed a large improvement, how can you say 100% it was a fluke? I believe he is just coming into his own.

Regardless, giving up on a young guy coming off a career year, just because you don't want to pay him more than 2 million, and extremely underrate him is a bad way of doing business.

I'm not saying it's all fluke, but I think the majority of it absolutely is. Maybe he doesn't drop back to 6%, but even if he drops to normal shooting percentage (~8%) his goal total is immediately halved.

Paying players based on career years is almost always a bad idea, and there's no reason the Flames, with Bouma being an RFA, should be paying him >2 million dollars per season on a multi-year deal.

 

[OvermanKingGainer]

I would like Backlund at 3.7M AAV, 5 years. That would be a high-value contract for its entire length, which would last all of Backs' prime.

I'm not saying it's all fluke, but I think the majority of it absolutely is.

16 goals for Bouma. You're saying at least 9 of them were flukes. Which of them look like flukes? All of them look pretty consistently repeatable to me:

[NHL]780903[/NHL]
[NHL]651851[/NHL]
[NHL]661212[/NHL]
[NHL]674028[/NHL]
[NHL]794380[/NHL]
[NHL]788960[/NHL]
[NHL]794380[/NHL]
[NHL]758965[/NHL]
[NHL]757008[/NHL]
[NHL]753544[/NHL]
[NHL]753544[/NHL]
[NHL]748669[/NHL]
[NHL]740560[/NHL]
[NHL]666248[/NHL]
[NHL]662222[/NHL]
[NHL]794718[/NHL]

even if he drops to normal shooting percentage (~8%) his goal total is immediately halved.

8% is not normal for a forward. The average shooting percentage for a forward is around 11%.

Now consider Bouma's zone starts, and you realize he doesn't often start in the offensive zone. When he does get offensive opportunities, they're more often on the odd-man rush, where shooting percentages are going to be higher.

 

[SmellOfVictory]

I am biased for calling a guy who did an adequate job as our 2nd line shut down winger a good 3rd liner?? What's next? The grass is blue the sky is green and Michael Jordan was a great baseball player?

You could stick Brandon freaking Bollig with Backlund and he'd look like he was doing an adequate job as a shutdown winger.

 

[Lunatik]

You could stick Brandon freaking Bollig with Backlund and he'd look like he was doing an adequate job as a shutdown winger.

thanks for confirming what I already knew.

 

[Calculon]

I don't want to come off harsh, but in what world is Backlund worth 4m?

He's only worth 2.5, 3m at best. Him being injury prone has affected how much $ he should have been getting, but he won't get it.

That's selling him short. Injury troubles aside, the going rate for 0.5 ppg centres not even in their prime that are also excellent defensively is easily 4M+. Keep in mind that Backlund's a year away from being an UFA, meaning any multi-year contract is buying up UFA years which don't come cheap.

His injury history should reduce his cap hit, but not by that much. Wouldn't surprise me at all if Backlund was signed to a 4x4M contract in the summer.

Wow Backlund is so under-rated by our fan base. You guys think he should be getting paid like Raymond and Stajan? Come on. He's worth around 4.5*4 years IMO.

He would be the best third line centre in the league. He's a decent number 2. You gotta pay to keep good centres.

Backlund is massively underrated for some weird reason. Even the injuries don't really explain the irrational downplaying.

 

[Anglesmith]

There's a real thirst to be stingy here, and I'm not sure why we are so eager to ditch players who go out and play their ***** off. If this was a conversation about a Kristian Huselius or a Rene Bourque type of guy, then I think it's warranted to view them as expendable. But Backlund and Bouma? Heart and soul guys who not only contribute their own play, but who make the other players on the team better through their presence.

The NHL salary cap is $69M for 23 players. $3M is an average price for a player under that structure, assuming you don't have 1-ways buried in the minors (I believe I'm correct in thinking that AHL prospects don't count to the cap, right?).

It's fair enough to assume that we have some young guys who will need to get paid far in excess of that mid-ground in the future, but they won't need to be getting the really top dollar (>$7M) for quite a while. Realistically, we aren't tied down with many guys over the $3M mark long-term, and the ones that are deserve it. We have room to spend money, and I think Backlund and Bouma are two guys worth spending it on. Again, no one is throwing out anything that ridiculous.

I guess you'll never be able to predict exactly how the next few years will play out, both with our team and with the NHL salary cap, so the most important question is whether the contract you sign will hand-cuff you from being able to fix any issues that come up. Will Bouma signed at $2.5-$3M be so unpalatable that no team in the league would be interested in him as part of the right deal? I don't think so. How about Backlund at $4M? Probably not. These aren't Clarkson/Semin type numbers we're talking about.

 

[SmellOfVictory]

I would like Backlund at 3.7M AAV, 5 years. That would be a high-value contract for its entire length, which would last all of Backs' prime.



16 goals for Bouma. You're saying at least 9 of them were flukes. Which of them look like flukes? All of them look pretty consistently repeatable to me:

8% is not normal for a forward. The average shooting percentage for a forward is around 11%.

Now consider Bouma's zone starts, and you realize he doesn't often start in the offensive zone. When he does get offensive opportunities, they're more often on the odd-man rush, where shooting percentages are going to be higher.

The average for all forwards in the NHL, being boosted by high percentage shooters. The average for bottom six players is not 11% (it's more like 9.5%, so I was mistaken as well).

I just don't think Bouma is going to get or capitalize on the same number of opportunities next season as he did last. I'll bet you 20 bucks his shooting percentage drops into the single digits next season, with the conditions that he plays 60+ games and gets less than a minute of PP time per game.

 

[SmellOfVictory]

thanks for confirming what I already knew.

What, that Backlund is amazing?

 

[Anglesmith]

The average for all forwards in the NHL, being boosted by high percentage shooters.

Why are high-percentage outliers relevant, but not low-percentage outliers?

 

[InfinityIggy]

What, that Backlund is amazing?

Everyone knows that.

 

[MonyontheMoney]

There's a real thirst to be stingy here, and I'm not sure why we are so eager to ditch players who go out and play their ***** off. If this was a conversation about a Kristian Huselius or a Rene Bourque type of guy, then I think it's warranted to view them as expendable. But Backlund and Bouma? Heart and soul guys who not only contribute their own play, but who make the other players on the team better through their presence.

The NHL salary cap is $69M for 23 players. $3M is an average price for a player under that structure, assuming you don't have 1-ways buried in the minors (I believe I'm correct in thinking that AHL prospects don't count to the cap, right?).

It's fair enough to assume that we have some young guys who will need to get paid far in excess of that mid-ground in the future, but they won't need to be getting the really top dollar (>$7M) for quite a while. Realistically, we aren't tied down with many guys over the $3M mark long-term, and the ones that are deserve it. We have room to spend money, and I think Backlund and Bouma are two guys worth spending it on. Again, no one is throwing out anything that ridiculous.

I guess you'll never be able to predict exactly how the next few years will play out, both with our team and with the NHL salary cap, so the most important question is whether the contract you sign will hand-cuff you from being able to fix any issues that come up. Will Bouma signed at $2.5-$3M be so unpalatable that no team in the league would be interested in him as part of the right deal? I don't think so. How about Backlund at $4M? Probably not. These aren't Clarkson/Semin type numbers we're talking about.

I'm not disputing what Backs brings to the team. Personally I'm one of his biggest fans. But you can't pay a 3rd line center 4-5 million per year.

The argument was about a 4-5 mill Backlund, which IMO is too much. At 5 mill that would put Backlund in (or very close to) the same salary range as Kesler(5), Carter(5.272), Seguin(5.75), Tavares(5.5), and Brassard(5). Even at 4 mill he is at the same level as Henrique(4) and Backes(4.5). All of these guys are decent 1C's or at the worst great 2C's on their teams. Backlund shouldn't be in this range, he is a decent 2C, great 3C. I would be willing to go 4 at the absolute most.

In the end it's not about a "thirst to be stingy", it's about fair value and ensuring we have cap flexibility down the road.

 

[CraigsList]

I can see a 3.5m x 4 year deal if we wanted to buy another UFA year from Backs.

I just don't see him as a 4m+ player.