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Speculation: Rumours, Speculation, and all Armchair-GM-ing needs! v.11

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Johnny Hoxville

Johnny Hoxville

The Return of a Legend
Jul 15, 2006
37,560
9,364
Calgary
I don't necessarily think or disagree with some people saying these guys deserve to be paid some of the numbers being thrown around (except for Backlund over 4 million is crazy to me). My entire thing is the cap. When you have guys in your system who are capable of doing a similar quality job at half the price, well it's a serious conversation and debate that you need to have. I'd argue that the Flames do not want Bouma in their top 6 long term. If he is, it's likely because some of our prospects have not panned out.

Personally I'd go:

Bouma - 2 years @ 2 million, or
3 years @ 1.75

Backlund - 2 years at 3.75, or
3 years @ 3.5

My only reasoning for paying Backlund more is because he's more likely to play in the top 6.
 
SmellOfVictory

SmellOfVictory

Registered User
Jun 3, 2011
10,959
653
Anglesmith said:
It's not true. It's a complete fallacy. It's akin to saying that rolling three or less on a die is more realistic than rolling four or more.

In reality, Bouma is probably just as likely to score >40 points next season as he is to score <20, but some people will allege that the latter is more realistic purely on the basis of....

I don't actually know.
Click to expand...

He's not, because he's a human being, and human beings tend not to go from guys who haven't even hit a point-per-game in junior (or broken half a point-per-game in the AHL) to a 0.5 point-per-game scorer in the NHL. Is it possible? Sure. It's also possible that I find a hundred dollars on the ground outside my place. But is it likely? I'd say not.

Am I extrapolating? Absolutely. Nothing about Bouma in his entire history has ever indicated that he's going to be an above average finisher (in fact, it's the opposite) therefore it's more likely that he regresses to average SH%, or below, than staying up where he is. His history is that of a guy who is not good offensively, and that's totally fine. He doesn't need to be in order to be a useful player.
 
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Anglesmith

Anglesmith

Setting up the play?
Sep 17, 2012
46,717
15,124
Victoria
SmellOfVictory said:
He's not, because he's a human being, and human beings tend not to go from guys who haven't even hit a point-per-game in junior (or broken half a point-per-game in the AHL) to a 0.5 point-per-game scorer in the NHL. Is it possible? Sure. It's also possible that I find a hundred dollars on the ground outside my place. But is it likely? I'd say not.

Am I extrapolating? Absolutely. Nothing about Bouma in his entire history has ever indicated that he's going to be an above average finisher (in fact, it's the opposite) therefore it's more likely that he regresses to average SH%, or below, than staying up where he is. His history is that of a guy who is not good offensively, and that's totally fine. He doesn't need to be in order to be a useful player.
Click to expand...

Everyone is extrapolating, naturally. That's the nature of the beast when you're trying to talk about the future. But we chose if we want to ignore certain factors or take them into account, and everyone's obviously going to do that differently. For my part, I put significantly less emphasis on the player he was years ago than you, and significantly more emphasis on what he's capable of at this level, in this situation, in this role, at this stage of development.

I agree that him scoring 40 points would require him to play differently than he does right now, but I also feel that for him to score <20 points, he would also have to play differently than he does right now. I find both of those scenarios unlikely, to clarify. There's no real reason to expect him to be anything except better in terms of his play, and finish with around the same number of points as a result.

Obviously that changes if you think he'll be pushed to the fourth line next year, but I don't see that happening, personally, given what we have in the organization.
 
SmellOfVictory

SmellOfVictory

Registered User
Jun 3, 2011
10,959
653
Anglesmith said:
Everyone is extrapolating, naturally. That's the nature of the beast when you're trying to talk about the future. But we chose if we want to ignore certain factors or take them into account, and everyone's obviously going to do that differently. For my part, I put significantly less emphasis on the player he was years ago than you, and significantly more emphasis on what he's capable of at this level, in this situation, in this role, at this stage of development.

I agree that him scoring 40 points would require him to play differently than he does right now, but I also feel that for him to score <20 points, he would also have to play differently than he does right now. I find both of those scenarios unlikely, to clarify. There's no real reason to expect him to be anything except better in terms of his play, and finish with around the same number of points as a result.

Obviously that changes if you think he'll be pushed to the fourth line next year, but I don't see that happening, personally, given what we have in the organization.
Click to expand...

It'll be interesting to see. Whatever happens, all I want is for him to be worth whatever he gets paid.
 
GAMO1992

GAMO1992

#ThankYouIggy
Dec 9, 2011
7,943
572
Ontario, Canada
Some intriguing discussions going on.

When it comes to Bouma, I'd offer him a 2X2M contract, a nice pay increase, but a 'Show me you can keep it up' type deal. If he surpasses what he's been doing, great, we have our own Saad(As an example). If he plateaus and continues production(or around this years production), we got ourselves a great middle 6'er. If he regresses then we have an excellent PK'er and 4th liner with some jam to his game, that can score some goals. It's all about how you view the situation IMO. Bouma still has something to prove that this wasn't just a '1 hit wonder' year.

As for Backlund, he's a solid middle 6'er, who's been inconsistent and injury riddled. 3X3M-3.5M is probably the most I'd be willing to give him. Kinda in the same line as Bouma's deal this would give him a few years to prove he can be consistent and less injury prone, and improve his game. If he gets too big for his britches(which I highly doubt he would; he's given no indication of being that kind of player with us so far), then we have a asset to trade.
 
Mr Lebowski

Mr Lebowski

Go Flames
Feb 18, 2014
3,536
0
Toronto
almost everyone of our forward had better production when Backlund was in the lineup. He creates easier minutes for everyone else.

Bouma is the perfect bottom 6 forward. He can step up in the top 6 for a few games, he's physical, he can score tough goals and he's one of the best defensive forwards in the league right now.

Both should get 2 years and between 2 and 4 million

I'd go Bouma - 2 years, 2.5 AAV, Backlund 2 years - 3.5 AAV
 
Taranis

Taranis

Registered User
Jul 9, 2013
5,975
27
Nova Scotia
Was that trade assuming Lucic signs a new deal beforehand? or is he trading Poirier and Wotherspoon for one year of Lucic?
 
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