Speculation: Rumours, Speculation, and all Armchair-GM-ing needs! v.11

[Johnny Hoxville]

But does your cashier block a lot of shots?

Metaphorically, she's a Kris Russell.

 

[MonyontheMoney]

Thinking about it more and more and truly believe his value is well above 1.5 mill. I honestly think 2.5 is a very fair deal, and wouldn't have a problem if it were even slightly more.

 

[Lunatik]

Did someone actually say Bouma isn't a good 3rd line player? That has to be one of the dumbest things I have read on this forum.

 

[OvermanKingGainer]

In a cap era, you save your dollars for your goalscorers.

...Bouma was 4th on the team in goal scoring. Whether you believe that was a flukey fluke year and all the corsi and PDO and regression are gonna drag him right back down to a 5 goal season, or not - the reality is that he scored more goals than Raymond, than Jones, than Giordano, than Wideman, than Backlund, than Ferland, than Jooris, than Stajan. In terms of percent of team goals scored VS percent of a 71 million dollar cap, that's 4.79 million dollars he'd deserve based on goal scoring alone. Can he repeat it? That's a good question. I think he's at least earned another couple years on the team to show whether the answer is yes or no. Simply discarding him if his agent wants more than bare minimum is premature and should be saved for when he gets into actual UFA status. As-is, even going into arbitration would likely favor the Flames.

 

[InfinityIggy]

I feel as though Bouma is being massively underrated here.

 

[Skobel24]

I feel as though Bouma is being massively underrated here.

Agreed. I'd have no problem paying him 3 million a year. I don't think we've seen his best hockey yet either. A lot of people will disagree with me here, but I don't think 2nd line potential is out of the question.

 

[Anglesmith]

I agree guys. I'm puzzled by this $1.5M notion. We paid Stajan $3M or something with the full-on expectation that he'd be less valuable to the team than Bouma is right now, and that says nothing about Bouma's growth. He doesn't need to repeat his statistical output in order to maintain his value to the team.

 

[Johnny Hoxville]

...Bouma was 4th on the team in goal scoring. Whether you believe that was a flukey fluke year and all the corsi and PDO and regression are gonna drag him right back down to a 5 goal season, or not - the reality is that he scored more goals than Raymond, than Jones, than Giordano, than Wideman, than Backlund, than Ferland, than Jooris, than Stajan. In terms of percent of team goals scored VS percent of a 71 million dollar cap, that's 4.79 million dollars he'd deserve based on goal scoring alone. Can he repeat it? That's a good question. I think he's at least earned another couple years on the team to show whether the answer is yes or no. Simply discarding him if his agent wants more than bare minimum is premature and should be saved for when he gets into actual UFA status. As-is, even going into arbitration would likely favor the Flames.

My issue is, I don't think Bouma will continue to be one of our top scorers on the team. I see guys like Granlund, Poirier, Colborne and Klimchuk being the ones providing the bulk of our depth scoring.

If Bouma ends up back regularly on the 4th and we're paying him 2.5/75, then that sets a precedent for others on our team in that role. It's not good business to have bottom 6 players inhibit your ability to keep your top 6 studs. It's not a problem today, but down the road it could be.

I love Boums as much as everyone here does, I hope he's a Flame for a long time. I just think paying him in the mid 2 million range is a mistake. If that's his demands, I really hope we let him walk. Prust was a star for the Rangers, they didn't show him the money and they 100% made the right choice in letting him go to the Habs. I don't think any bottom 6 player is worth over 2 million, give him 1.75 over 2 years or 1.5 over 3.

 

[Bouma Fett*]

I'd give Bouma more dollars the shorter the term. Offer him choice of money vs stability.

1 year 2.5, 2 years 2.0, 3 years 1.5.

I'd be happy with any of those deals.

 

[Skobel24]

I'm also thinking separating Hudler from the top line for a bit might be worth trying. Someone mentioned it before, and I hated the idea, but it's starting to grow on me.

Gaudreau - Monahan - Colborne

We've seen what Colborne can do when he's shooting. This would give him the opportunity to do just that. He's shown chemistry with Monahan before as well.

Bennett - Backlund - Hudler

Backlund moves the puck well, and can be relied on to play his two way game. Hudler and Bennett could spark some more offense on that second line.

Bouma - Jooris - Byron

Yup. Byron. Strong two-way/checking line.

Ferland - Stajan - Jones

See how they do during the season.

On the outside: Raymond, Bollig, Shore, Granlund

 

[Johnny Hoxville]

I have zilch against Bouma, but I look at a team like the Bruins that had to trade away Boychuk strictly for cap reasons. It's great we have lots of cap room now, but that should be saved for our top 6 players and your top 4 dman.

Bouma is fantastic at what he does, he's an easy player to love as a fan but I still see him as a bottom 6 player and think he always will be. For that reason alone, I don't think you can just pay him whatever he wants as good as he is at his role.

 

[SmellOfVictory]

Did someone actually say Bouma isn't a good 3rd line player? That has to be one of the dumbest things I have read on this forum.

Chris Higgins is a good 3rd line player. Marcus Kruger is a good 3rd line player. Matt Stajan is a good 3rd line player. Darren Helm is a good 3rd line player. You think Bouma is as good as these guys? Fine, but you're biased as hell.

 

[SmellOfVictory]

Why is a regression "guaranteed"? In my mind it is all but guaranteed. He's 25 and why can't it be a case of a player coming into his own? Sure it is just one season of good numbers but that should serve as evidence that he is capable of performing at that level.

He has missed a grand total of 8 games the past 2 years...That's pretty good considering his style of play if you ask me.

Personally I would be very OK with paying Bouma between 2 and 2.5 per year. I am telling you now if Bouma is moved this offseason without giving him a shot to prove that his year wasn't a fluke it is a HUGE mistake

I say it's guaranteed because the only time he's put up sort-of-highish point totals in any developmental league was as an overager in the WHL, and because his shooting percentage this season was literally 3x his NHL shooting percentage in his previous 120 games. It's even more than 1.5x his AHL shooting percentage.

 

[Skobel24]

Chris Higgins is a good 3rd line player. Marcus Kruger is a good 3rd line player. Matt Stajan is a good 3rd line player. Darren Helm is a good 3rd line player. You think Bouma is as good as these guys? Fine, but you're biased as hell.

Darren Helm is an exceptional 3rd liner. Higgins is a very strong 3rd liner. Stajan is a very strong 3rd liner. Bouma is a good 3rd liner.

 

[Johnny Hoxville]

Bouma had an amazing year, I'd classify him as a very good bottom 6 player.

 

[Calculon]

I don't think Bouma's a known quantity yet. Could be a great fourth liner or a good third liner or something else. He had a fantastic year but that shooting percentage . . . there's a very good chance his offense drops next season. But the Flames should hold on to him at least until the cap forces their hand.

 

[MonyontheMoney]

Chris Higgins is a good 3rd line player. Marcus Kruger is a good 3rd line player. Matt Stajan is a good 3rd line player. Darren Helm is a good 3rd line player. You think Bouma is as good as these guys? Fine, but you're biased as hell.

Chris Higgins - 2.5mill 77GP-12G-24A-36P-+8-73 hits-34 blocked shots 15:47 TOI
Marcus Kruger - 1.325mill 81GP-7G-10A-17P--5-29 hits-50 blocked shots 13:05 TOI
Matt Stajan - 3.125mill 59GP-7G-10A-17P-+7-72 hits-21 blocked shots-12:00 TOI
Darren Helm - 2.125mill 75GP-15G-18A-33P-+7-132 hits-25 blocked shots-15:50 TOI
Lance Bouma - ???? 78GP-16G-18A-34P-+10-264 hits-82 blocked shots-14:01 TOI

How can you say Bouma isn't a good 3rd line player? He is right up there with all the guys you mentioned even above in point production last year, has the best +/- out of all of them, DOUBLED the next closest guy in hits, and had significantly more blocked shots. I don't know what else he could have done to solidify himself as a good 3rd line player. He brought everything you look for in a player in his role and then some. Add to the fact that he and Kruger are the youngest of the 5.

I think we can all agree that Kruger is in for a raise and Helm is on a very good deal for Detroit. I hate to break it to you but Bouma isn't getting below 2 mill a year and I don't see him playing for any team but the Flames in the near future.

 

[MonyontheMoney]

I say it's guaranteed because the only time he's put up sort-of-highish point totals in any developmental league was as an overager in the WHL, and because his shooting percentage this season was literally 3x his NHL shooting percentage in his previous 120 games. It's even more than 1.5x his AHL shooting percentage.

Still, none of that guarantees a thing. Sure his shooting percentage may drop a bit but it won't go all the way back to 6.1% of 2013-14. He is 25 and is coming of his 2nd full NHL season, in which he showed a large improvement, how can you say 100% it was a fluke? I believe he is just coming into his own.

Regardless, giving up on a young guy coming off a career year, just because you don't want to pay him more than 2 million, and extremely underrate him is a bad way of doing business.

 

[Bouma Fett*]

My thing with a guy like Bouma is we shouldn't commit long term to him. No 4+ year deals. Take it a couple years at a time. Make sure it doesn't come back to bite us with sudden regression

 

[InfinityIggy]

My thing with a guy like Bouma is we shouldn't commit long term to him. No 4+ year deals. Take it a couple years at a time. Make sure it doesn't come back to bite us with sudden regression

This is my only qualm as well. Keep it a short term deal but give the guy 2M or w/e. We don't know fully what kind of player he is. Give him a sort of 'show me' contract, but after what he did this year, giving him a bit of a pay raise on a short term deal is no problem.

 

[CraigsList]

Bouma should get 2m x 4.

 

[Johnny Hoxville]

This is my only qualm as well. Keep it a short term deal but give the guy 2M or w/e. We don't know fully what kind of player he is. Give him a sort of 'show me' contract, but after what he did this year, giving him a bit of a pay raise on a short term deal is no problem.

After reading what some of you guys have said, maybe I would soften my stance a little bit. 2 years @ 2 million would be the absolute limit for me, even still I would pay hard ball and try to get him around 1.75 million.

To shift gears a little bit, I was listening to the guys on the Fan this morning and they seem to think that Backlund is going to get a 3-4 year deal at 4-5 million per. I don't know about you guys, but I'm not paying Backlund 5 million either..

 

[InfinityIggy]

After reading what some of you guys have said, maybe I would soften my stance a little bit. 2 years @ 2 million would be the absolute limit for me, even still I would pay hard ball and try to get him around 1.75 million.

To shift gears a little bit, I was listening to the guys on the Fan this morning and they seem to think that Backlund is going to get a 3-4 year deal at 4-5 million per. I don't know about you guys, but I'm not paying Backlund 5 million either..

Why not.

If he gets a big deal I ain't even gonna be mad.

But seriously I think they are way off base, where did they even pull that number out of? I think he will get another short term deal, 2 or 3 years 3.6m per.

 

[Johnny GODreau]

4m is the max I'd do for Backlund.

 

[CraigsList]

I don't want to come off harsh, but in what world is Backlund worth 4m?

He's only worth 2.5, 3m at best. Him being injury prone has affected how much $ he should have been getting, but he won't get it.