Rumor: Rumours & Proposals Thread | Previous Poll Punted, Pristine Prospect Procurement Poll Pinned

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Which of the recent prospect additions intrigues you the most?

  • Noah Philp coming out of retirement

  • Connor Ungar - Brock University (USPORTS)

  • James Stefan - Portland Winterhawks (WHL)

  • Marc Lajoie - Edmonton Oil Kings (WHL)


Results are only viewable after voting.

Oilhawks

Song to Hall Up High
Nov 24, 2011
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The Cap had better be going up a lot to accomodate 3 players making just under $40.
This extremely top heavy template is right out of the Leafs playbook and its clear it just doesnt work.

The Leafs have all their big money tied up in (mostly) finesse core 4 forwards that wilt in the playoffs, the Oilers would be paying for 3 of the top point producers in the post season (one of whom is a top pairing defenseman), with more than one post season to show that level of production. It’s not at all alike
 

Bryanbryoil

Pray For Ukraine
Sep 13, 2004
87,173
37,068
I am as happy as any oilers fan that this team has a chance to win a cup this season but the (brutal) Nurse contract really screwed things up moving forward.
No way that you can pay Bouchard under $9.25M now.
Surprising that Holland paid him that when in Detroit no one would make more than Lidstrom. No way should Nurse have ever been paid more than Draisaitl.
 
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TopShelfGloveSide

Registered User
Dec 10, 2018
19,751
28,559
The Cap had better be going up a lot to accomodate 3 players making just under $40.
This extremely top heavy template is right out of the Leafs playbook and it’s clear it just doesnt work.
It doesn’t work for Toronto because they are top heavy but with the wrong players. Our stars have this drive to win. They elevate in the playoffs.

The leaf core does not.
 
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McDNicks17

Moderator
Jul 1, 2010
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Surprising that Holland paid him that when in Detroit no one would make more than Lidstrom. No way should Nurse have ever been paid more than Draisaitl.
It helped that Lidstrom was making an astronomical amount of money. His first contract under the salary cap was 17.3% of the cap. That's $14.5M for this season's salary cap.

Zero chance Drai's sweetheart of a deal could be used the same way.
 

CornKicker

Holland is wrong..except all of the good things
Feb 18, 2005
12,133
3,592
He did his part by outproducing the crap out of his current deal. I expect Drai to be around $13 million.
agree and i hope that the oilers pull off the cup win and other players take less $$ just to keep running it back. i know its a pipe dream but thats the ideal outcome
 
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Oildrum

Registered User
Jan 22, 2013
1,754
1,403
agree and i hope that the oilers pull off the cup win and other players take less $$ just to keep running it back. i know its a pipe dream but thats the ideal outcome

I wonder if Drai takes less money if we lose vs Florida (don't ban me for saying this plz). He might feel like we are so close and he doesn't want to hamstring the team further.

vs we win the cup this year. Then it's "who cares I've done it all" and he wants the maximum amount of money he can get.
 

CornKicker

Holland is wrong..except all of the good things
Feb 18, 2005
12,133
3,592
I wonder if Drai takes less money if we lose vs Florida (don't ban me for saying this plz). He might feel like we are so close and he doesn't want to hamstring the team further.

vs we win the cup this year. Then it's "who cares I've done it all" and he wants the maximum amount of money he can get.
i dont know 100% but i do have a feeling drai and mcdavid dont feel like winning once is sufficent, i fully expect them to plan on winning multiple
 

CupofOil

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Aug 20, 2009
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It'll be interesting. He'll be 26 when the extension kicks in. A four year deal to take him to UFA at 30 probably wouldn't be the worst thing for him as far as money goes.

Not ideal for the team, but I think you're right about them needing to pay him a fortune on an eight year deal.
Actually I think a 4-5 year deal for Bouchard would be ideal for the team because it'll knock the AAV down somewhat in their true competitive window. That might work for Bouchard as well because he'll cash in even bigger on his 4th contract assuming he maintains this trajectory. Anything that would save the Oilers a million or two the next 4-5 years would be team beneficial. I'm secretly hoping that Drai does the same but I assume he'll go for security with him nearing the backside of his prime.
 
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McShogun99

Registered User
Aug 30, 2009
18,602
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Man this thread is going to be so weird in the off season (win or lose).

Such a different mentality when you've made it all the way to the final - Tough to argue with real results.

My hope would be Drai says "I'll take 100 million and I'm good". It can be an 8 year deal I think?
If we win the Cup i doubt I'll worry about contract numbers for the next few years. I'd even keep Campbell around as the backup next season in hopes that he looks much better under Knob and could potentially find a suitor that's desperate for goaltending.
 

CupofOil

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The big difference in those guys didn't get bridged(or forced to sit out an entire year of their ELC). Both of them are going to be up for UFA at 27 years old and able to make absolute bank on their next contract.

Bouchard's next contract will kick in when he's 26 years old. That deal is basically going to be his only shot at making big money. His agent is going to be pushing for the same kind of retirement deal that Hughes/Makar are going to be looking for in a few years.
Hughes and Makar have hardware and a track record that Bouchard just doesn't have. I know that projection is a big part of a negotiation but I don't see Bouchard being the highest paid defenseman in the league based on one really good season. He was a 40 point 18 minute a night Dman just last season, there really isn't much on his resume to warrant a $12m+ contract nevermind even $10m+ if they extended him this offseason. If they wait until next offseason after he has another season like this then, yeah, we're talking double digits easily.
 

McDNicks17

Moderator
Jul 1, 2010
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Hughes and Makar have hardware and a track record that Bouchard just doesn't have. I know that projection is a big part of a negotiation but I don't see Bouchard being the highest paid defenseman in the league based on one really good season. He was a 40 point 18 minute a night Dman just last season, there really isn't much on his resume to warrant a $12m+ contract nevermind even $10m+ if they extended him this offseason. If they wait until next offseason after he has another season like this then, yeah, we're talking double digits easily.
He'll only be one of the highest paid defensemen in the league because he's really good and one of the first guys signing right before a massive leap in the cap. Those guys will easily pass him when they're up for their next contract in a couple years.

No one signing today is going to be getting money similar to the guys who signed with a flat cap. They just aren't remotely comparable situations.
 

McDoused

Registered User
Feb 5, 2007
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I am as happy as any oilers fan that this team has a chance to win a cup this season but the (brutal) Nurse contract really screwed things up moving forward.
No way that you can pay Bouchard under $9.25M now.

I never understood fans/media and say this kind of reasoning

By the same logic Calvin Pickard should be asking for 5x5 because he's better than Jack Campbell. Just because someone else was overpaid or failed to live up to their contract doesn't mean that's the standard. Vancouver is trying to do it the other way with Hughes right now saying that Hughes (who likely wins the Norris) is only making 7.85 so their is no way that Hronek is worth that much.

Instead, the standard for Bouchard and Hronek is going to be what the market demands and how much is a #1 dman worth. Nurse was paid 9.25M to be a number one defenseman because thats what the market dictated at the time. Regardless of if Nurse lives up to that contract, that's what the market demanded (which Holland overpaid). This number is also in line with what Makar is making - $9M.

Makar was draft a year before Bouchard. He completed his ELC than immediately signed a large contract. Makar signed on July 24th, 2021 in his D+4 season (didn't play right out of the AJHL) where he put up 94 points in 101 regular season games. Makar had 94 points in 101 regular season games for a 0.931 point per game pace. He also had 31 playoff points in 35 playoff games for a 0.886 point per game pace.

Bouchard on the other hand bloomed a little later. His ELC was far less productive 88 regular season points in 184 regular season games for a 0.478 point per game pace. In the playoffs he had 26 playoff points in 30 playoff games for a 0.867 point per game pace.

So even Bouchard took a longer time to get where he is today and wasn't nearly as productive early on, he should be paid like a #1 defenceman. Colorado already knew what they had in Makar - a true #1. Colorado paid for Makars potential. Over the past 3 seasons Makar had 242 regular season points in 214 regular season games and 49 playoff points in 37 playoff games. Bouchard to this point isn't still considered to be as good as Makar.

I don't see Bouchard commanding the 11M that Dahlin signed for as his production to this point given who Bouchard plays with.
 

guymez

The Seldom Seen Kid
Mar 3, 2004
34,381
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We would be more like the Avalanche.

Toronto's problem is the players they committed to left them with a completely unbalanced roster that has major holes even at the top of the lineup. Edmonton would be committing to a two player top 6 and a superstar #1D. It's not the same at all.

Also, the cap IS going to rise a lot but that's not even really the point. We could fit those contracts onto this team today if we weren't wasting so much money on players who can't even play.
I see what you are saying here and perhaps the Avs are a btter example.
The issue for me is unless the cap goes up a lot it just doesnt leave cap much left for filling out the rest of the roster with any kind of quality.
So the question becaomes...is the leftover cap space enough to fill out the rest of the roster with quality players?
 

guymez

The Seldom Seen Kid
Mar 3, 2004
34,381
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The Leafs have all their big money tied up in (mostly) finesse core 4 forwards that wilt in the playoffs, the Oilers would be paying for 3 of the top point producers in the post season (one of whom is a top pairing defenseman), with more than one post season to show that level of production. It’s not at all alike
The cap needs to go up a lot though to sustain $40M in 3 players and still be able to fill in the rest of the roster with some SC quality.
When you at in Nurse at $9.25M that puts things to almost $50M.
A crazy number for 4 players IMO.

Surprising that Holland paid him that when in Detroit no one would make more than Lidstrom. No way should Nurse have ever been paid more than Draisaitl.
Couldnt agree more. :nod:

It doesn’t work for Toronto because they are top heavy but with the wrong players. Our stars have this drive to win. They elevate in the playoffs.

The leaf core does not.
Its a fair argument for sure but when we add in Nurse the team is well on its way to $50M for 4 players.
Thats really tough to work with.
 
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guymez

The Seldom Seen Kid
Mar 3, 2004
34,381
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I never understood fans/media and say this kind of reasoning

By the same logic Calvin Pickard should be asking for 5x5 because he's better than Jack Campbell. Just because someone else was overpaid or failed to live up to their contract doesn't mean that's the standard. Vancouver is trying to do it the other way with Hughes right now saying that Hughes (who likely wins the Norris) is only making 7.85 so their is no way that Hronek is worth that much.

Instead, the standard for Bouchard and Hronek is going to be what the market demands and how much is a #1 dman worth. Nurse was paid 9.25M to be a number one defenseman because thats what the market dictated at the time. Regardless of if Nurse lives up to that contract, that's what the market demanded (which Holland overpaid). This number is also in line with what Makar is making - $9M.

Makar was draft a year before Bouchard. He completed his ELC than immediately signed a large contract. Makar signed on July 24th, 2021 in his D+4 season (didn't play right out of the AJHL) where he put up 94 points in 101 regular season games. Makar had 94 points in 101 regular season games for a 0.931 point per game pace. He also had 31 playoff points in 35 playoff games for a 0.886 point per game pace.

Bouchard on the other hand bloomed a little later. His ELC was far less productive 88 regular season points in 184 regular season games for a 0.478 point per game pace. In the playoffs he had 26 playoff points in 30 playoff games for a 0.867 point per game pace.

So even Bouchard took a longer time to get where he is today and wasn't nearly as productive early on, he should be paid like a #1 defenceman. Colorado already knew what they had in Makar - a true #1. Colorado paid for Makars potential. Over the past 3 seasons Makar had 242 regular season points in 214 regular season games and 49 playoff points in 37 playoff games. Bouchard to this point isn't still considered to be as good as Makar.

I don't see Bouchard commanding the 11M that Dahlin signed for as his production to this point given who Bouchard plays with.
The Pickard comp dosnt apply at all. Just a completely different situation.

Scoring is the hardest thing to do in hockey and Bouchard is doing that at an elite level.
I get what you are saying regarding League cmparisions and that usually plays a big part in negotiations.
However I just dont see Nurses contract being in a vacuum and not applicable to any other dman on the team when it comes to their negotiation.
I mean how does Holland sit down with negotiate with Bouchard and then tell him that he isnt as valuable to the team as Darnell Nurse is? That his accom[plishments dont merit the same money as Nurse but his accomplishments matter more in comparison to other players around the League.

IMO Ekholm is the best all around dman on this team but his contract doesnt apply because they inherited that contract. Outside of Ekholm Bouchard is the best dman on this team.
So with that in mind I just cant imagine the mental gymnastics required to sell Bouchard on a contract that suggests he isnt a better damn than Nurse.
 

CupofOil

Knob Flavored Coffey
Aug 20, 2009
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He'll only be one of the highest paid defensemen in the league because he's really good and one of the first guys signing right before a massive leap in the cap. Those guys will easily pass him when they're up for their next contract in a couple years.

No one signing today is going to be getting money similar to the guys who signed with a flat cap. They just aren't remotely comparable situa
My point is that he doesn't have the resume to be paid as the NHL's highest paid defenseman if he signs today, there's just no way that he and his agent have a case for that. He might want to bet on himself and wait a year but as of today, that's just not realistic. Seeing numbers of 12-13m/yr. That's absurd even in a rising cap world. As I said before, projection does play a role but the reality is that he has one really good season as a top pair Dman and arguably just one and a half seasons as a legit top 4 Dman.
I'm not expecting him to get current Hughes money either and even Makar money is probably unrealistic but 12-13m isn't happening.
 

Oilhawks

Song to Hall Up High
Nov 24, 2011
28,194
50,745
The caps needs to go up a lot though to sustain $40M in 3 players and still be able to fill in the rest of the roster with some SC quality.
When you at in Nurse at $9.25M that puts things to almost $50M.
A crazy number for 4 players IMO.


Couldnt agree more. :nod:


Its a fair argument for sure but when we add in Nurse the team is well on its way to $50M for 4 players.
Thats really tough to work with.

The expectation is that the Cap is going to be going up by leaps and bounds. New star player contracts have been starting to reflect that.

You do anything you need to fit McDavid, Draisaitl and Bouchard on the team, full stop.
 
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guymez

The Seldom Seen Kid
Mar 3, 2004
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The expectation is that the Cap is going to be going up by leaps and bounds. New star player contracts have been starting to reflect that.

You do anything you need to fit McDavid, Draisaitl and Bouchard on the team, full stop.
I hear what you are saying but again when you factor in the terrible Nurse ($9.25M) contract that puts 4 players to almost $50M.
That is ridiculous (thats when the Nurse contract bites this team in the ass.) and it wont be easy to work with and still maintain a SC contending roster. Especially when you throw in the extra burden of the $5M Campbell contract as well.
 

belair

Win it for Ben!
Apr 9, 2010
39,373
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Canada
I hear what you are saying but again when you factor in the terrible Nurse ($9.25M) contract that puts 4 players to almost $50M.
That is ridiculous (thats when the Nurse contract bites this team in the ass.) and it wont be easy to work with and still maintain a SC contending roster. Especially when you throw in the extra burden of the $5M Campbell contract as well.
It is, but it doesn't change anything. Those are the big contracts that belong to the guys carrying the largest workloads. Unlikely anyone is going to unseat Nurse from his top four role for some time.

What the Oilers need to do between now and then is focus on finding some good value at the draft and on the trade and free agent markets. Find some good supporting cast role players and players that other teams eventually covet.
 

McDNicks17

Moderator
Jul 1, 2010
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My point is that he doesn't have the resume to be paid as the NHL's highest paid defenseman if he signs today, there's just no way that he and his agent have a case for that. He might want to bet on himself and wait a year but as of today, that's just not realistic. Seeing numbers of 12-13m/yr. That's absurd even in a rising cap world. As I said before, projection does play a role but the reality is that he has one really good season as a top pair Dman and arguably just one and a half seasons as a legit top 4 Dman.
I'm not expecting him to get current Hughes money either and even Makar money is probably unrealistic but 12-13m isn't happening.
His resume doesn't really matter. It's the cap that matters. No agent is going to let their client sign a deal that's market value for today when the cap could be 30-40% higher by the mid-point of that deal. He'd be underpaid before he even steps on the ice on that deal.

If the Oilers want him on an 8 year deal, there's basically zero chance he won't be the highest paid defenseman for a couple years.
 
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guymez

The Seldom Seen Kid
Mar 3, 2004
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It is, but it doesn't change anything. Those are the big contracts that belong to the guys carrying the largest workloads. Unlikely anyone is going to unseat Nurse from his top four role for some time.

What the Oilers need to do between now and then is focus on finding some good value at the draft and on the trade and free agent markets. Find some good supporting cast role players and players that other teams eventually covet.
We actually agree except that Nurse is absolutely not a dman that has a $9.25M value in terms of TOI.

What I am essentially saying is that having $50M tied up in 4 players is going to make filling out the rest of the roster with SC contending quality players very difficult.
 

timekeep

Registered User
Apr 28, 2010
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My point is that he doesn't have the resume to be paid as the NHL's highest paid defenseman if he signs today, there's just no way that he and his agent have a case for that. He might want to bet on himself and wait a year but as of today, that's just not realistic. Seeing numbers of 12-13m/yr. That's absurd even in a rising cap world. As I said before, projection does play a role but the reality is that he has one really good season as a top pair Dman and arguably just one and a half seasons as a legit top 4 Dman.
I'm not expecting him to get current Hughes money either and even Makar money is probably unrealistic but 12-13m isn't happening.
Agree, The Oilers mgmt would be nuts to sign him to whatever he asks for now, really he has only had a great half of the season and good since Barrie was traded. He still has his defensive warts but lets have another year. He can shoot better than most players but he can't skate like Makar, Hughes or Fox.

His resume doesn't really matter. It's the cap that matters. No agent is going to let their client sign a deal that's market value for today when the cap could be 30-40% higher by the mid-point of that deal. He'd be underpaid before he even steps on the ice on that deal.

If the Oilers want him on an 8 year deal, there's basically zero chance he won't be the highest paid defenseman for a couple years.
His resume is what needs to matter, they can't just throw him money like they did with Nurse.
 
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foshizzle

Registered User
Feb 1, 2007
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4,940
My point is that he doesn't have the resume to be paid as the NHL's highest paid defenseman if he signs today, there's just no way that he and his agent have a case for that. He might want to bet on himself and wait a year but as of today, that's just not realistic. Seeing numbers of 12-13m/yr. That's absurd even in a rising cap world. As I said before, projection does play a role but the reality is that he has one really good season as a top pair Dman and arguably just one and a half seasons as a legit top 4 Dman.
I'm not expecting him to get current Hughes money either and even Makar money is probably unrealistic but 12-13m isn't happening.
If you look at his underlying metrics- he is in the top echelon of the league. He zone exits and zone denials are amongst the top defenders in the league. He has both the offence and defence of being a defender. I’ll say it again, Oilers made a massive mistake not giving him a long term deal this past summer. This is why you have an analytics dept that can help forecast these things.

Agree, The Oilers mgmt would be nuts to sign him to whatever he asks for now, really he has only had a great half of the season and good since Barrie was traded. He still has his defensive warts but lets have another year. He can shoot better than most players but he can't skate like Makar, Hughes or Fox.


His resume is what needs to matter, they can't just throw him money like they did with Nurse.
No. He has now put together 3 good playoffs and 2 good seasons. His agent can bring forward his analytics on both sides of the puck. Thats why most analytics folks were saying to lock him up long term this past summer. They decided to keep Ceci and Foegele instead
 

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