Rumour, Trade & Free Agent Discussion

[Adam da bomb]

And Yagr. Of course it can happen. You can win the lottery too, but that is a lousy retirement plan.

Does being large help? Does spending off-seasons in the gym help?

Wheeler's game was built on speed. I think he has slowed down. But if he can transition to a smarter game, he can be just as effective. So we don't know how well he will stand up over time. All we can do is guess based on what is usual. That means that somewhere between 34-36 he will probably decline sharply. He is 34 before next season begins. So say he goes to the far end of that. He has 2 more good year and 4 more years under contract. Those last 2 years are going to be touch and go.

No but just because 90% of players age badly doesn’t mean he will. You look at their workout regime second to none. Injury history etc.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

No but just because 90% of players age badly doesn’t mean he will. You look at their workout regime second to none. Injury history etc.

Where did I say he will? Probably is not will.

We don't know what effect workout regimes, body types or injury histories have on longevity of career. We can guess that they can extend it somewhat sometimes. But that is not knowing.

I'm looking at Wheeler as he approaches 34 and guessing he still has a couple of good years in him. That is already crediting him with 2-3 extra years, presumably due to his workouts, body type and injury history. It is based on his lack of decline so far. Many players at his age are already done, or very close to it. It is just a guess. He could last till 45 or fall off a cliff next year, but neither of those things appears likely.

 

[Adam da bomb]

Where did I say he will? Probably is not will.

We don't know what effect workout regimes, body types or injury histories have on longevity of career. We can guess that they can extend it somewhat sometimes. But that is not knowing.

I'm looking at Wheeler as he approaches 34 and guessing he still has a couple of good years in him. That is already crediting him with 2-3 extra years, presumably due to his workouts, body type and injury history. It is based on his lack of decline so far. Many players at his age are already done, or very close to it. It is just a guess. He could last till 45 or fall off a cliff next year, but neither of those things appears likely.

But there must be someway of being able to predict based on previous successes, what they have in common and be able to say yes he will last long or short. I doubt Tanev or Lowry have long careers based on playing style. Some kind of sports science so to speak. Granted freak things change like injuries.
The Jagrs only seem strange as we don’t understand them yet.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

But there must be someway of being able to predict based on previous successes, what they have in common and be able to say yes he will last long or short. I doubt Tanev or Lowry have long careers based on playing style. Some kind of sports science so to speak. Granted freak things change like injuries.
The Jagrs only seem strange as we don’t understand them yet.

There probably is something. If the research has been done, I haven't heard of it. We will probably have much better guidelines some day.

It is similar to drafting players at 17-18 YO and hoping you can accurately pick the best ones and know how they will develop over the next 4-5 years. That is the upward side of the bell curve. We are talking about the downward side. They are somewhat similarly difficult to predict. I think the downside is a little more predictable though. The effects of aging hit all of us. We have lots of data.

The Jagrs seem strange because he and Gordie Howe are the only 2.
They don't just seem strange, they are strange.

 

[Whileee]

There probably is something. If the research has been done, I haven't heard of it. We will probably have much better guidelines some day.

It is similar to drafting players at 17-18 YO and hoping you can accurately pick the best ones and know how they will develop over the next 4-5 years. That is the upward side of the bell curve. We are talking about the downward side. They are somewhat similarly difficult to predict. I think the downside is a little more predictable though. The effects of aging hit all of us. We have lots of data.

The Jagrs seem strange because he and Gordie Howe are the only 2.
They don't just seem strange, they are strange.

The problem with a lot of data analysis is looking at averages, and not comparing "apples to apples". Projections for Wheeler should be based on an appropriate comparison group. Key variables might include...

Trajectory of performance (improved this year in many respects).

Injury / durability history (not aware of any previous serious injuries - bit of an iron man).

Cumulative games played (bit of a late bloomers, without as many "miles" on him).

These aging curves lump together players like Ladd and Kesler (who have had important injuries), with players like Thornton and Marleau who have been healthy their whole careers.

I would be shocked if Wheeler didn't fall off over the next few years, but I think his decline might be more gradual than the "average" forward.

 

[Adam da bomb]

There probably is something. If the research has been done, I haven't heard of it. We will probably have much better guidelines some day.

It is similar to drafting players at 17-18 YO and hoping you can accurately pick the best ones and know how they will develop over the next 4-5 years. That is the upward side of the bell curve. We are talking about the downward side. They are somewhat similarly difficult to predict. I think the downside is a little more predictable though. The effects of aging hit all of us. We have lots of data.

The Jagrs seem strange because he and Gordie Howe are the only 2.
They don't just seem strange, they are strange.

But didn’t Chelios play till 40? Didn’t Bourque retire older? Also there is Brady different sport but the same. Favre retired late.
You can’t predict 17-18 completely but top 5 guys at draft will generally have a better career than most. They are homeruns more often than not. Not every time but better than 60/40 odds I’d guess. Even many of the busts like Hischier are better than most of the players drafted later they may just be busts for that position. That can be said for most of first rd. Roslovic may be a bust for the 1st rd but he will be better than probably 70% of the players drafted in third round or later. Not a stats guy so you’ll have to go by concept and vibe not exact number quoted.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

The problem with a lot of data analysis is looking at averages, and not comparing "apples to apples". Projections for Wheeler should be based on an appropriate comparison group. Key variables might include...

Trajectory of performance (improved this year in many respects).

Injury / durability history (not aware of any previous serious injuries - bit of an iron man).

Cumulative games played (bit of a late bloomers, without as many "miles" on him).

These aging curves lump together players like Ladd and Kesler (who have had important injuries), with players like Thornton and Marleau who have been healthy their whole careers.

I would be shocked if Wheeler didn't fall off over the next few years, but I think his decline might be more gradual than the "average" forward.

Yes. And when the research is done, we will know how to adjust for the variables. Right now, we are doing it by the seat of the pants.

In Wheeler's case, I am looking at his current performance and the lack of serious decline. He has already demonstrated a more gradual than average decline. Therefore, instead of declaring him done at 34, I am assuming he has a couple of good years left. After next year, if he still isn't showing much decline I might still give him a couple of years. That's all we can do with the information we have. Guesstimate.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

But didn’t Chelios play till 40? Didn’t Bourque retire older? Also there is Brady different sport but the same. Favre retired late.
You can’t predict 17-18 completely but top 5 guys at draft will generally have a better career than most. They are homeruns more often than not. Not every time but better than 60/40 odds I’d guess. Even many of the busts like Hischier are better than most of the players drafted later they may just be busts for that position. That can be said for most of first rd. Roslovic may be a bust for the 1st rd but he will be better than probably 70% of the players drafted in third round or later. Not a stats guy so you’ll have to go by concept and vibe not exact number quoted.

You are listing a few out of thousands. For every 1 you can list who made it to 40, I can list a dozen who didn't make it to 35, maybe hundreds. I refer you back to my remark about the lottery.

There may be factors we could use to improve our ability to predict longevity. I've mentioned some, several times. But until research is done we don't know if they play a part at all, much less how large an effect they may have. All we have is hunches and guesses.

 

[Whileee]

Evolving Hockey just released their 2020 contract projections. Some interesting ones...

TermxAAV (million)

Barzal 8x9.9
Pietrangelo 8x9.3
Reinhart 8x9
Domi 8x8.8
Krug 5x7.6
Sergachev 8x6.7
Cirelli 6x6
Hamonic 5x5.4
Brodie 3x5
Vatanen 3x4.7
Dillon 4x3.8
Eakin 4x3.5
DeMelo 3x2.9
Roslovic 2x2.9
Cernak 2x2.6
Kulikov 1x1.6
Beaulieu 1.1.6
Sbisa 1x1
Harkins 1x0.88
Niku 1x0.82
Appleton 2x0.78
Shore 1x0.71

 

[Whileee]

Some thoughts re: contract projections...

Jets should re-sign their RFAs along with DeMelo and Shore.

Brodie looks like the best option among UFA D, if these projections are close.

TB are going to be in real trouble unless Sergachev and Cirelli take huge discounts. Good luck with that, with the current uncertainty.

 

[Adam da bomb]

Some thoughts re: contract projections...

Jets should re-sign their RFAs along with DeMelo and Shore.

Brodie looks like the best option among UFA D, if these projections are close.

TB are going to be in real trouble unless Sergachev and Cirelli take huge discounts. Good luck with that, with the current uncertainty.

Why add a D. Next season top 4.
Mo deMelo
Samberg pionk
Xxx poolman. Would rather xxx not cost an arm and a leg since it’s a bottom pairing spot. UFA want term and you’d just be blocking Heinola, Chisholm, Gawanke. So resign a Sbisa or Boo Boo cheaply for a year or two.

 

[Whileee]

According to the Evolving Hockey model, most of the Jets core is making a lot less than they would get on the open market. That's a bit skewed because they signed previously, but still indicates that the Jets have managed their cap situation well. The main overpay is Little, but that's skewed by injury issues.

Interestingly, the model predicts Wheeler at 3x8M if he was signing as a UFA this year, which is a year shorter but not much lower AAV than he's getting. All-in-all, the Wheeler contract is probably reasonable market value.

(edited for accuracy).

 

[Whileee]

Why add a D. Next season top 4.
Mo deMelo
Samberg pionk
Xxx poolman. Would rather xxx not cost an arm and a leg since it’s a bottom pairing spot. UFA want term and you’d just be blocking Heinola, Chisholm, Gawanke. So resign a Sbisa or Boo Boo cheaply for a year or two.

I'm with you. I think the Jets will be fine on D, but they might not want to gamble on Samberg and other young players.

My guess is that they'll use their cap space to strengthen their team. Best option would be to get a 2C, but hard to sign one of those, so they would need to trade for one.

 

[Adam da bomb]

I'm with you. I think the Jets will be fine on D, but they might not want to gamble on Samberg and other young players.

My guess is that they'll use their cap space to strengthen their team. Best option would be to get a 2C, but hard to sign one of those, so they would need to trade for one.

That’s why it’s a forum as we can’t make their decision for them. I just see Samberg ready when he helped USA in world. A few years later with hype about his D game, you gotta assume he’s more than ready. We also added Bourque last season so go figure.
2c 1B will be a problem all we can do is hope Little bounces back and wingers can help carry that line more.

 

[Whileee]

That’s why it’s a forum as we can’t make their decision for them. I just see Samberg ready when he helped USA in world. A few years later with hype about his D game, you gotta assume he’s more than ready. We also added Bourque last season so go figure.
2c 1B will be a problem all we can do is hope Little bounces back and wingers can help carry that line more.

I'm very high on Samberg and think he can step into a #4 D role, but if he can't the Jets will suffer another season with a bad D. I suppose they can wait and see, and if he doesn't seem ready early in the year they could then try to acquire one.

If Buff and Little are out next year the Jets will have a ton of cap space. Hard not to see them capitalize on the cap space to reload and go for it next year.

 

[Adam da bomb]

I'm very high on Samberg and think he can step into a #4 D role, but if he can't the Jets will suffer another season with a bad D. I suppose they can wait and see, and if he doesn't seem ready early in the year they could then try to acquire one.

If Buff and Little are out next year the Jets will have a ton of cap space. Hard not to see them capitalize on the cap space to reload and go for it next year.

You don’t think Little will be back?

 

[Huffer]

Evolving Hockey just released their 2020 contract projections. Some interesting ones...

TermxAAV (million)

Barzal 8x9.9
Pietrangelo 8x9.3
Reinhart 8x9
Domi 8x8.8
Krug 5x7.6
Sergachev 8x6.7
Cirelli 6x6
Hamonic 5x5.4
Brodie 3x5
Vatanen 3x4.7
Dillon 4x3.8
Eakin 4x3.5
DeMelo 3x2.9
Roslovic 2x2.9
Cernak 2x2.6
Kulikov 1x1.6
Beaulieu 1.1.6
Sbisa 1x1
Harkins 1x0.88
Niku 1x0.82
Appleton 2x0.78
Shore 1x0.71

Few thoughts...

Those Reinhart and Domi numbers look ugly.

Would love Brodie at that term and $. Not so much for Hamonic for 5 years.

No thanks to Eakin, unless all other options are exhausted.

Would rather see Demelo get another year or 2.

Would easily take Kuli on a 1 year deal at that price. (Could have Brodie on 2nd pair and Kuli/Samberg on the 3rd).

Obviously the whole league is hoping the Bolts are in massive cap trouble, and if they can't move a mid tier guy they will be. Already been talked to death, but adding both Cirreli and Cernak would fill a lot of holes.

 

[Whileee]

You don’t think Little will be back?

I don't think anyone is sure.

Even if he is back, if Buff is gone then the Jets will still have a fair bit of cap space.

 

[Adam da bomb]

Few thoughts...

Those Reinhart and Domi numbers look ugly.

Would love Brodie at that term and $. Not so much for Hamonic for 5 years.

No thanks to Eakin, unless all other options are exhausted.

Would rather see Demelo get another year or 2.

Would easily take Kuli on a 1 year deal at that price. (Could have Brodie on 2nd pair and Kuli/Samberg on the 3rd).

Obviously the whole league is hoping the Bolts are in massive cap trouble, and if they can't move a mid tier guy they will be. Already been talked to death, but adding both Cirreli and Cernak would fill a lot of holes.

Worry about bringing in a bunch of ufa and there is not a good chance of a good spot for Samberg what incentive does he have to sign with us instead of just waiting a year and having his choice. Leaving that top 4 spot a competition between Kuli and Samberg gives him every incentive. I’d give Apple more than Niku.

 

[Whileee]

Worry about bringing in a bunch of ufa and there is not a good chance of a good spot for Samberg what incentive does he have to sign with us instead of just waiting a year and having his choice. Leaving that top 4 spot a competition between Kuli and Samberg gives him every incentive. I’d give Apple more than Niku.

I'm with you about Samberg. Maybe they should sign him first.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Evolving Hockey just released their 2020 contract projections. Some interesting ones...

TermxAAV (million)

Barzal 8x9.9
Pietrangelo 8x9.3
Reinhart 8x9
Domi 8x8.8
Krug 5x7.6
Sergachev 8x6.7
Cirelli 6x6
Hamonic 5x5.4
Brodie 3x5
Vatanen 3x4.7
Dillon 4x3.8
Eakin 4x3.5
DeMelo 3x2.9
Roslovic 2x2.9
Cernak 2x2.6
Kulikov 1x1.6
Beaulieu 1.1.6
Sbisa 1x1
Harkins 1x0.88
Niku 1x0.82
Appleton 2x0.78
Shore 1x0.71

Domi at 8x8.8 seems way high to me. If that is what it would take, I lose all interest in Domi. Even if I could get him for that without giving up any assets I wouldn't be interested. I'd much rather get Cirelli at 6x6. Those projections will be assuming those 2 players stay with their current teams, since both are RFA's.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Some thoughts re: contract projections...

Jets should re-sign their RFAs along with DeMelo and Shore.

Brodie looks like the best option among UFA D, if these projections are close.

TB are going to be in real trouble unless Sergachev and Cirelli take huge discounts. Good luck with that, with the current uncertainty.

Why Shore?

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

According to the Evolving Hockey model, most of the Jets core is making a lot less than they would get on the open market. That's a bit skewed because they signed previously, but still indicates that the Jets have managed their cap situation well. The main overpay is Little, but that's skewed by injury issues.

Interestingly, the model predicts Wheeler at 3x8M if he was signing as a UFA this year, which is a year longer but not much higher AAV than he's getting. All-in-all, the Wheeler contract is probably reasonable market value.

For Wheeler that is a year shorter, not longer and lower AAV, not higher. He has 4 years left at 8.25

 

[Huffer]

Worry about bringing in a bunch of ufa and there is not a good chance of a good spot for Samberg what incentive does he have to sign with us instead of just waiting a year and having his choice. Leaving that top 4 spot a competition between Kuli and Samberg gives him every incentive. I’d give Apple more than Niku.

The Jets should be signing Samberg before UFA period begins IMO.

I'm one of the biggest Samberg fans on here and was calling his name before he was drafted. But if I'm the GM, I'm not building a roster that needs him to deliver a big role next year. Rather build a team that doesn't need him to do much but then be pleasantly surprised than to have to count on him next year.

I'd look to sign Samberg ASAP, and then (if those $'s are accurate and players amendable) adding the players identified to create a better team.

 

[Whileee]

Why Shore?

Cheap depth player that has been effective (and perhaps underrated). Plays C, and steps in on the PK. Basically, he's been one of the better depth players the Jets have had in the past several years. Also, would block worse options like Letestu, Bourque, etc.