Rumour, Trade & Free Agent Discussion

[Whileee]

I didn't say he would fall off a cliff. I said he would decline, which he is. Slowly so far.

No, it isn't just who is better than whom. It should be about the net best for the team. I'm sure Maurice thinks that is what he is doing. I don't have to agree.

Wheeler was better this season than the previous two. He will inevitably decline, but hasn't really yet.

 

[Adam da bomb]

I don't think I ever used the words vastly better. I have said that he is clearly better, not the same. But that is not an attack on Connor either. I have said many times that none of our top 3 young wingers should be traded. But if we trade any of them, it better be for a 2C.

Eakin does not have a big body at 6', 183. He is ~10 lbs heavier than Ehlers. I would like a 2C who is 6'2+ and 200+ lbs. Maybe we should be developing Laine as a C.

"Ehlers drives the line is amazing defensively and is a great player. Connor can not carry players as well as Ehlers can", we agree. Both are great players. Connor is so dangerous in the O zone. We need to find a way to get him more time there.

Is there something about Ehler’s face that makes ppl want to slash him? After all no one else takes abuse the way he does. Drai giving him a hard time for no reason last night and nothing called.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Wheeler was better this season than the previous two. He will inevitably decline, but hasn't really yet.

Maybe better than last season. I don't think better than the season before.

But really, I think he has declined but it can't be by much if it is even debatable.

He still goes hard every shift. I think he has lost a little speed. Has looked pretty fast lately, since they have been having 2 days between games. Maybe he needs that rest now more than in the past.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Is there something about Ehler’s face that makes ppl want to slash him? After all no one else takes abuse the way he does. Drai giving him a hard time for no reason last night and nothing called.

He sticks his nose in and doesn't back down from anybody. I wonder what he says to opponents when they are on the ice?

I think his speed draws a lot of that stuff, when he is beating people. He does draw a lot of penalties.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Roslovic was also taken in the same draft as Cirelli and outproduced him during their AHL times. It's not impossible that Roslovic still has more in him as well.

I liked the 2015 line with him at 3C. Liked it a lot.

 

[Whileee]

Maybe better than last season. I don't think better than the season before.

But really, I think he has declined but it can't be by much if it is even debatable.

He still goes hard every shift. I think he has lost a little speed. Has looked pretty fast lately, since they have been having 2 days between games. Maybe he needs that rest now more than in the past.

Wheeler's expected goals plus/minus (EH RAPM model) is better this season than either of the past two seasons. His expected GAR this season ranks 3rd among his 9 seasons with the Jets, trailing only 15/16 and 16/17 seasons.

So, other than individual point production, Wheeler's performance metrics are better this year than the previous two years, and in some respects better than seasons several years ago.

Again, I think his decline is inevitable, but there's considerable objective evidence that it hasn't begun yet I terms of his performance.

 

[BoneDocUK]

Wheeler's expected goals plus/minus (EH RAPM model) is better this season than either of the past two seasons. His expected GAR this season ranks 3rd among his 9 seasons with the Jets, trailing only 15/16 and 16/17 seasons.

So, other than individual point production, Wheeler's performance metrics are better this year than the previous two years, and in some respects better than seasons several years ago.

Again, I think his decline is inevitable, but there's considerable objective evidence that it hasn't begun yet I terms of his performance.

Yeah, he has a well-earned rep as a fearsome offseason trainer with an increibly strong work ethic, and seemed to start remodelling his game a few years ago with an emphasis on efficient playmaking over sheer power-forward straight-ahead skating, crashing and banging. Playing with 55 and 81/29 must have helped that transition.

I don't see him falling off a cliff, more of a gentle though still pronounced downward slope. Garbage Hill instead of Mt. Rundle, if you will.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

The team is better with Little than without. We had to find 2 players this year (Shore for faceoffs, Eakin for scoring) to replace him. His production declined as soon as he was taken off the top line, specifically Wheeler, coinciding with Scheifele's incline. Less PP time. I am pretty sure Chevy knew he was getting a 40-50 (his projection this year) point centre when he signed him to that deal. Remember that the value of centres goes up as the Cap increases. If he is a 3rd line centre still producing 40 points in the back half, that's a good deal. Then there is the faceoffs, penalty killing, and experience that he brings to the team. The way the team evolved did not make him an ideal #2. And getting production out of the Ehlers-Laine led to both those trades, as well as injuries (Lowry in 2018, Scheifele last year).

I see your point. Maybe I am just reacting to the way Little gets trashed sometimes. Compare his value to Perreault for instance, and it really doesn't look bad, long term. I am happy we signed him to that deal, and I feel like he deserved to be rewarded for everything he has done for this team.

Hard to complain too much about Little. He has disappointed as 2C but not all his fault. I think he would have done better if Wheeler had stayed on his right wing. I would be quite happy with him as a 40 pt 3C right now.

But - his contract may be getting in the way of us getting a better 2C. It is already a problem, and has 4 more years to go. Perreault's contract was only 4 years to begin with, Little's was 6. It would look a lot better right now if it had also been limited to 4 years. That would take him through his 34 YO season.

 

[Adam da bomb]

Hard to complain too much about Little. He has disappointed as 2C but not all his fault. I think he would have done better if Wheeler had stayed on his right wing. I would be quite happy with him as a 40 pt 3C right now.

But - his contract may be getting in the way of us getting a better 2C. It is already a problem, and has 4 more years to go. Perreault's contract was only 4 years to begin with, Little's was 6. It would look a lot better right now if it had also been limited to 4 years. That would take him through his 34 YO season.

Your probably right go Esl and clw and Little looks like a 2c as they all play North to South.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Wheeler's expected goals plus/minus (EH RAPM model) is better this season than either of the past two seasons. His expected GAR this season ranks 3rd among his 9 seasons with the Jets, trailing only 15/16 and 16/17 seasons.

So, other than individual point production, Wheeler's performance metrics are better this year than the previous two years, and in some respects better than seasons several years ago.

Again, I think his decline is inevitable, but there's considerable objective evidence that it hasn't begun yet I terms of his performance.

I am not convinced that those models are any good. I'm not qualified to critique them properly but all of those that start with an x seem to me to produce questionable results. I like the effort to come up with better models. That doesn't mean the current ones are ready for prime time.

He is visibly slower. I also think I can detect a hesitation in his decision making that wasn't there before. I don't know where, if at all this shows in stats.

 

[Whileee]

Your probably right go Esl and clw and Little looks like a 2c as they all play North to South.

CSW are a brilliant offensive line. When Scheifele digs in on D, they are one of the best lines in the NHL. I think Connor can still improve defensively, too.

 

[Adam da bomb]

CSW are a brilliant offensive line. When Scheifele digs in on D, they are one of the best lines in the NHL. I think Connor can still improve defensively, too.

Don’t have anything against csw but it makes Little a passable 2 c to pair him with wheels.

 

[Whileee]

I am not convinced that those models are any good. I'm not qualified to critique them properly but all of those that start with an x seem to me to produce questionable results. I like the effort to come up with better models. That doesn't mean the current ones are ready for prime time.

He is visibly slower. I also think I can detect a hesitation in his decision making that wasn't there before. I don't know where, if at all this shows in stats.

I think he's slowed down a bit, but I also think he's improved his passing and decision making. Overall, it's about performance, and objectively he's having a very strong season. He's on pace for one of his best offensive seasons, despite playing most at C and away from Scheifele.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Your probably right go Esl and clw and Little looks like a 2c as they all play North to South.

That has been my thinking in the past. Not sure where Little will fit when he comes back.

I have been simply ignoring Little's return because it is unknown and difficult to estimate. Seeing him in the PB the other day certainly makes it look like he plans on coming back so maybe I will start including him in my ruminations.

He looked good to start this year. It would be great if he could come back as 2C. Maybe with the growth in Ehlers' and Laine's games, and/or a return of Wheeler to his line he will be able to succeed there. His style is not much different than Eakin's and that seems to be working.

What happens if we retain Eakins and Little comes back successfully? Maybe Little goes to 3RW. That could give us a 4th line of MP - Rosie - Archie. Harkins out. Or maybe MP is moved bringing Harkins back in. Could be bought out.

That leaves us with a shutdown/checking 3rd line and a scoring 4th line. A bit odd, but it might work well if that 4th line gets more than 5 minutes a game. I think both Harkins and Archie can PK.

 

[Whileee]

Don’t have anything against csw but it makes Little a passable 2 c to pair him with wheels.

Probably, but I think that if the Jets can get the CSW line to play D and consistently as they are now, it's not a bad idea to keep it together.

I wonder if Little can slot into a RW role, and maybe Harkins or Gus make a leap into a 2C role. That's perhaps a fond fond hope, but it's happened recently with a few other NHLers that bloomed a bit late, like Cirelli, W Karlsson.

I also wonder if Ehlers and Laine are developing enough to actually become effective with a player like Little. Laine is a very different player now than he was the previous few seasons.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I think he's slowed down a bit, but I also think he's improved his passing and decision making. Overall, it's about performance, and objectively he's having a very strong season. He's on pace for one of his best offensive seasons, despite playing most at C and away from Scheifele.

His passing was good the last couple of seasons. On the PP is where I think I am detecting some hesitation that was not there before. The PP has improved since the early part of the season. Still pathetic on zone entries but that isn't on Wheeler's passing or decision making.

His pt production is well down. The last couple of years, that was more dependent on the PP than on playing 1st line with Scheifele. He has still been getting the PP time even as 2C. I think we could play any of several other players with Connor and Scheifele and still see pretty strong scoring numbers. Not just Laine but Rosie, Appleton, even Perreault would get points there.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Probably, but I think that if the Jets can get the CSW line to play D and consistently as they are now, it's not a bad idea to keep it together.

I wonder if Little can slot into a RW role, and maybe Harkins or Gus make a leap into a 2C role. That's perhaps a fond fond hope, but it's happened recently with a few other NHLers that bloomed a bit late, like Cirelli, W Karlsson.

I also wonder if Ehlers and Laine are developing enough to actually become effective with a player like Little. Laine is a very different player now than he was the previous few seasons.

If we had fallen out of the PO race, I was hoping to see some experimentation go on. Harkins at C for 1 thing.

Appears to be moot now. I'm not optimistic for the resumption of this season. This pandemic is going to get worse before it gets better.

 

[Adam da bomb]

Probably, but I think that if the Jets can get the CSW line to play D and consistently as they are now, it's not a bad idea to keep it together.

I wonder if Little can slot into a RW role, and maybe Harkins or Gus make a leap into a 2C role. That's perhaps a fond fond hope, but it's happened recently with a few other NHLers that bloomed a bit late, like Cirelli, W Karlsson.

I also wonder if Ehlers and Laine are developing enough to actually become effective with a player like Little. Laine is a very different player now than he was the previous few seasons.

Ehlers is great. He’s not north and south Laine may be.

 

[Whileee]

His passing was good the last couple of seasons. On the PP is where I think I am detecting some hesitation that was not there before. The PP has improved since the early part of the season. Still pathetic on zone entries but that isn't on Wheeler's passing or decision making.

His pt production is well down. The last couple of years, that was more dependent on the PP than on playing 1st line with Scheifele. He has still been getting the PP time even as 2C. I think we could play any of several other players with Connor and Scheifele and still see pretty strong scoring numbers. Not just Laine but Rosie, Appleton, even Perreault would get points there.

His points per 60 at 5v5 is at 1.85 this season, around 7-10% lower than is average over the previous 8 seasons. However, he's been playing a lot of C, and has had quite low on-ice shooting percentage (around 6.8%), probably due to Laine's lower sh% and not playing with Scheifele and Connor, who are top finishers. Overall, I don't think his offensive production has dipped much, all things considered.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

His points per 60 at 5v5 is at 1.85 this season, around 7-10% lower than is average over the previous 8 seasons. However, he's been playing a lot of C, and has had quite low on-ice shooting percentage (around 6.8%), probably due to Laine's lower sh% and not playing with Scheifele and Connor, who are top finishers. Overall, I don't think his offensive production has dipped much, all things considered.

Hard to say anything for certain I guess. His production dropped off at 2C but when he was first put there I recall that line getting hot for a while.

Bottom line, I think his decline has started - slowly. I don't expect him to fall off s cliff any time soon either. He will likely remain a good player for some seasons. Exactly how good for exactly how many seasons is unpredictable. But it is predictable that he will be less good than he is today.

 

[Adam da bomb]

Hard to say anything for certain I guess. His production dropped off at 2C but when he was first put there I recall that line getting hot for a while.

Bottom line, I think his decline has started - slowly. I don't expect him to fall off s cliff any time soon either. He will likely remain a good player for some seasons. Exactly how good for exactly how many seasons is unpredictable. But it is predictable that he will be less good than he is today.

As long as he stays good his whole contract. It’s doable look at Brady and Howe.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

As long as he stays good his whole contract. It’s doable look at Brady and Howe.

And Yagr. Of course it can happen. You can win the lottery too, but that is a lousy retirement plan.

Does being large help? Does spending off-seasons in the gym help?

Wheeler's game was built on speed. I think he has slowed down. But if he can transition to a smarter game, he can be just as effective. So we don't know how well he will stand up over time. All we can do is guess based on what is usual. That means that somewhere between 34-36 he will probably decline sharply. He is 34 before next season begins. So say he goes to the far end of that. He has 2 more good year and 4 more years under contract. Those last 2 years are going to be touch and go.

 

[bennylundholm]

He sticks his nose in and doesn't back down from anybody. I wonder what he says to opponents when they are on the ice?

I think his speed draws a lot of that stuff, when he is beating people. He does draw a lot of penalties.

If you looked closely, Ehlers deftly had Draisaitl tied up as they went towards the boards, taking him out of the play, and Draisaitl rightly got pissed off and gave him a shot into the boards. Ehlers tried to draw a penalty but no luck.

 

[WPGChief]

People forget that Wheeler was a great player, so even in his 'decline' we'll probably still get the good - but that will probably come in less time on ice as he goes to age 34 next season. Part of his resurgence this season in comparison to the two years prior of fall's I attribute to his time on the 2C where he had to force himself to rethink the way he played defensively (which is why he's been one of the best wingers in the league in his prime), and he's now back to positive results in xGA/60 and CA/60 RAPM's in that regard. Problem is that the offense is starting to dry up a bit more, probably.

(If I had to make a guess of where he lands next year in xGAR/60 on the above chart, it's probably at the 1718 mark or in between that and the 1920 season.)

Now the question becomes: is that worth $8.25m for the next 4 years? And that's the part I struggle with.

 

[Whileee]

People forget that Wheeler was a great player, so even in his 'decline' we'll probably still get the good - but that will probably come in less time on ice as he goes to age 34 next season. Part of his resurgence this season in comparison to the two years prior of fall's I attribute to his time on the 2C where he had to force himself to rethink the way he played defensively (which is why he's been one of the best wingers in the league in his prime), and he's now back to positive results in xGA/60 and CA/60 RAPM's in that regard. Problem is that the offense is starting to dry up a bit more, probably.

(If I had to make a guess of where he lands next year in xGAR/60 on the above chart, it's probably at the 1718 mark or in between that and the 1920 season.)

Now the question becomes: is that worth $8.25m for the next 4 years? And that's the part I struggle with.

People forget that Wheeler was a great player, so even in his 'decline' we'll probably still get the good - but that will probably come in less time on ice as he goes to age 34 next season. Part of his resurgence this season in comparison to the two years prior of fall's I attribute to his time on the 2C where he had to force himself to rethink the way he played defensively (which is why he's been one of the best wingers in the league in his prime), and he's now back to positive results in xGA/60 and CA/60 RAPM's in that regard. Problem is that the offense is starting to dry up a bit more, probably.

(If I had to make a guess of where he lands next year in xGAR/60 on the above chart, it's probably at the 1718 mark or in between that and the 1920 season.)

Now the question becomes: is that worth $8.25m for the next 4 years? And that's the part I struggle with.

I highly doubt that Wheeler will be "worth" his contract in the last 2-3 years. But there's not much else a franchise can do with a core player at that stage, when they are in a competitive window. It's hard to imagine them making any other choice, all things considered. They pretty much had to keep him at that stage.

Meanwhile, Wheeler's actually had a good season, all things considered. 1.85 points/60 at 5v5 is nothing to sneeze at. Comparable to Eichel, Palat, Schenn, etc. Also, Wheeler's on-ice shooting % has been low this season, likely dampening his offense a bit.

His effectiveness in moving to C strengthens his value somewhat.