There is too much variation with 5 players on the ice even if Cirelli himself is a selective shooter. Your counting on everyone on the ice having very high individed shooting percentages. Also Cirelli himself isn't a big goal scorer, he was only on pace for 18 and scored 15 the year before. The high shot percentage is likely due to Killorn doubling his career average shooting percentage.
Also I am not sure why you think he's scored much at every level.
Draft year 0.53 ppg
Draft plus 1 0.95 ppg
Draft plus 2 1.25 ppg
Those aren't particularly great OHL scoring rates.
But I digress, I personally wouldn't mind Schmaltz. He has consistently scored at a good second line rate with good underlying numbers.
At every level, I'm looking at his pts, not his goals. I didn't mean to imply that he is a high goal scorer. We have a couple of wingers who are natural goal scorers and who need playmakers. In your 3 ppg list, that is one level where he ended up producing just under and then over a ppg. Not elite scoring, but still very good. That is producing at 1 level. His draft year was not great and that's why he wasn't drafted until 72 OA. In D+2 he was over a ppg with 1 team when he was traded to another where he also exceeded the ppg level. That's a good sign. He then went on to lead his team to a memorial cup, scoring 31 pts in 22 PO games.
In '17 he won a silver medal at the WJC where he scored a ppg.
He then went on to score 37 pts in 51 games as an AHL rookie. That is very good production for a rookie at that level. Not elite, but VG.
After his 21 YO season he played for Canada in the World Championship and scored 4 pts in 10 games. Good to have even made that team at that age.
So that is Major Junior, WJC, AHL, WC and NHL levels where he has produced and performed very well.
Compare him to Scheifele. Scheif's first pro season was in the NHL, Cirelli's was in the AHL. Second pro seasons Scheif outscored Cirelli by 10 pts. Not bad comparing a coming top 10 in the league C to a coming 2C. Add in Cirelli's excellent defensive play and you have a VG 2C. Not one who is ever likely to challenge for a 1C spot though.
I think Schmaltz is another potential target we could look to. Not sure which one would turn out better but I lean towards Cirelli.