Rumour, Trade & Free Agent Discussion

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Huffer

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Oh Maurice would love Cirelli defensively. I just question if he has more offense then Copp in him. His scoring at 5 on 5 hasn't been much better then Copps despite playing with more skilled players.

Agreed. Cirelli is the new shiny, and he would be a nice addition for sure. Great defensively and likely some room to grow offensively as well. IMO I think it's also a little early to give up on Roslo as well. Roslo outproduced Cirelli in the AHL in their D+3 seasons, but then Cirelli gets an opportunity in TB and Roslo is playing on the Jets 4th line. The Jets org not doing everything to groom Roslo as a centre seems like a huge missed opportunity.
 
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Mortimer Snerd

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I'd love to see Cirelli here but TB isn't going to trade him for what most of us would be willing to pay.
They will do other things to stay under the cap.
I think Schmaltz could be available, is on a nice deal and is only 24 years old.
Niku, 1st rounder and Berdin?

What other things will TBL do?

Niku is near worthless and I wouldn't trade Berdin.

What makes you think Schmaltz would be any cheaper to get than Cirelli?
 

surixon

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Of his 44 pts this year 5 came on the PP, 2 came short handed. So 37 at evens. That's not bad. It is quite a bit more than Copp has ever scored in a season. In fairness though, Copp has usually been on the Lowry line and hasn't had much PP time at all.

Cirelli scored 29 5 on 5 points and posted a nice 1.91 P/60. The biggest issue is that he had an a completely unsustainable on ice shot percentage of 10.8. That to me signals he had some nice luck this year.

His most common linemates where Killorn, Stamkos, Palat and Johnson. So he has played with players who have consistently have scored at second line rates in Johnson, Killorn and Palat and an elite ES producer in Stamkos who scored at an elite 2.8 P/60 at 5 on 5.

In a year where his on ice shot percentage was normal 17-18 he scored at a 1.7 p/60 pace at 5 on 5. That was below the rates of his most common linemate Killorn.

For reference:

Copp had his worst offensive year this past year with a 1.2 P/60 but posted P/60 of 1.8 and 1.5 the prior two years playing predominantly with Tanev and Adam stone hands Lowry.

Patrick the prior two years posted 1.6 and 1.5 P/60 while playing on the third line with a now very poor Wayne Simmonds 1.1 P/60 each year (yuck).

I am just weary that his production is more due to a lucky year and playing on a stacked team with a tonne of talent. Couple that with him not having much of an offensive pedigree as a junior player and I am not sure I want to spend big assets on him.

I think he is a good example on how opportunity can make you appear a better then you really are while simultaneously making other players who play in less favorable positions worse then they are.
 
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Mortimer Snerd

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Cirelli scored 29 5 on 5 points and posted a nice 1.91 P/60. The biggest issue is that he had an a completely unsustainable on ice shot percentage of 13. T

So 8 points at 4 on 4? Why is a sh% of 13 unsustainable? What is his normal sh%? He doesn't take a large number of shots. That suggests that he waits for good chance = high sh%.
 

Adam da bomb

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What other things will TBL do?

Niku is near worthless and I wouldn't trade Berdin.

What makes you think Schmaltz would be any cheaper to get than Cirelli?
Why is Berdin untradeable? I mean Helly should be good for several more years plenty of time to get a new goalie. Also, you don't need the best back up if you can improve at another position.
 

BatVader

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Unfortunately, until the league makes a final decision on this season continuing or being cancelled, nothing will be done.
In my opinion, they should cancel the season and put their time, effort, and focus on next season. This would also let GM’s focus on the draft, FA, and making trades to get their teams ready for next season.
 

Mortimer Snerd

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Why is Berdin untradeable? I mean Helly should be good for several more years plenty of time to get a new goalie. Also, you don't need the best back up if you can improve at another position.

I didn't say he was untradeable. I said I wouldn't trade him.
That said, goalie prospects playing in the AHL have very little trade value unless they are absolutely gold plated, which Berdin is not. So there is no reason to trade him. He adds very little value to the trade proposal.

Personally, I prefer to always have a potential successor in the system. He is the only one at the moment. We have a couple of others who have shown some promise but they are still too far away to rate.

Berdin is still probably a couple of years away. Who knows what might happen in the next 2 years?

Plus, I like Berdin's style. Very entertaining.
 

surixon

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So 8 points at 4 on 4? Why is a sh% of 13 unsustainable? What is his normal sh%? He doesn't take a large number of shots. That suggests that he waits for good chance = high sh%.

The 10.8% is the teams shooting percentage with him on the ice (i.e the shooting percentage of everyone on the ice with him on).

For reference the median on ice shot % in the NHL this past season was 8.3%. So the lightning beat the median by 26 % with him on the ice. Not very sustainable imo.

To hit the point home even more the best player of his generation in Crosby has a career on ice shot % of 9.8%.

Edit NHL.com has a different on ice shot percentage of 10.8% which is still very high and unsustainable.
 
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Adam da bomb

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I didn't say he was untradeable. I said I wouldn't trade him.
That said, goalie prospects playing in the AHL have very little trade value unless they are absolutely gold plated, which Berdin is not. So there is no reason to trade him. He adds very little value to the trade proposal.

Personally, I prefer to always have a potential successor in the system. He is the only one at the moment. We have a couple of others who have shown some promise but they are still too far away to rate.

Berdin is still probably a couple of years away. Who knows what might happen in the next 2 years?

Plus, I like Berdin's style. Very entertaining.
Isn't Helly signed for at least 3 more years? It's not like he's pushing 30 and we are already worrying about his successor? I think that gives us multiple drafts to pick a couple of goalies late. I think he plays as a Jet for the next 6-7 years so whoever we pick is a back up for the next 6-7 years. If Berdin is ready in 2 years that's 4 years he dwells as a back-up losing value.
 

KingBogo

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Isn't Helly signed for at least 3 more years? It's not like he's pushing 30 and we are already worrying about his successor? I think that gives us multiple drafts to pick a couple of goalies late. I think he plays as a Jet for the next 6-7 years so whoever we pick is a back up for the next 6-7 years. If Berdin is ready in 2 years that's 4 years he dwells as a back-up losing value.
Helly is under contract for 4 years after this on a very reasonable contract and is now considered in the top tier of goalies league wide and is only 26 y/o which is generally considered at the front edge of a goalies prime. Helly is pure gold at this point in his career. Any successor is many years away from having a shot at being a starter. IMO anyone close will be traded off for as much value as possible before the Jets are at risk of losing them by other means.
 

surixon

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Helly is under contract for 4 years after this on a very reasonable contract and is now considered in the top tier of goalies league wide and is only 26 y/o which is generally considered at the front edge of a goalies prime. Helly is pure gold at this point in his career. Any successor is many years away from having a shot at being a starter. IMO anyone close will be traded off for as much value as possible before the Jets are at risk of losing them by other means.

Agreed. The Jets don't have anyone close in their system atm either. Berdin is fun but he tracking similarly to Comrie at the same age. Comrie took a step to being an upper league average AHL starter his third year as a pro, Berdin is going to need to do the same if not better if he is to have a shot as a backup.
 

Whileee

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Agreed. The Jets don't have anyone close in their system atm either. Berdin is fun but he tracking similarly to Comrie at the same age. Comrie took a step to being an upper league average AHL starter his third year as a pro, Berdin is going to need to do the same if not better if he is to have a shot as a backup.
Holm had an encouraging season in Sweden.
 

ecolad

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Cirelli scored 29 5 on 5 points and posted a nice 1.91 P/60. The biggest issue is that he had an a completely unsustainable on ice shot percentage of 10.8. That to me signals he had some nice luck this year.

His most common linemates where Killorn, Stamkos, Palat and Johnson. So he has played with players who have consistently have scored at second line rates in Johnson, Killorn and Palat and an elite ES producer in Stamkos who scored at an elite 2.8 P/60 at 5 on 5.

In a year where his on ice shot percentage was normal 17-18 he scored at a 1.7 p/60 pace at 5 on 5. That was below the rates of his most common linemate Killorn.

For reference:

Copp had his worst offensive year this past year with a 1.2 P/60 but posted P/60 of 1.8 and 1.5 the prior two years playing predominantly with Tanev and Adam stone hands Lowry.

Patrick the prior two years posted 1.6 and 1.5 P/60 while playing on the third line with a now very poor Wayne Simmonds 1.1 P/60 each year (yuck).

I am just weary that his production is more due to a lucky year and playing on a stacked team with a tonne of talent. Couple that with him not having much of an offensive pedigree as a junior player and I am not sure I want to spend big assets on him.

I think he is a good example on how opportunity can make you appear a better then you really are while simultaneously making other players who play in less favorable positions worse then they are.

Good informative post.
Cirelli is a guy whose availability I would certainly enquire about with the Bolts . I do not however share some of the views in this thread that suggest we should approach such discussions from an "all-in perspective", putting a very rich offer on the table so as to presumably front-run speculative interest from other teams. Cirelli is not, in my estimation, the guy that will assuredly have immediate positive impact on the team and solve our 2nd line issues.
 

surixon

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Good informative post.
Cirelli is a guy whose availability I would certainly enquire about with the Bolts . I do not however share some of the views in this thread that suggest we should approach such discussions from an "all-in perspective", putting a very rich offer on the table so as to presumably front-run speculative interest from other teams. Cirelli is not, in my estimation, the guy that will assuredly have immediate positive impact on the team and solve our 2nd line issues.

Agreed. At first I was intrigued but digging a bit more and questions started to arise. This is a guy that produced at a similar rate as Lowry in junior and the AHL and suddenly posting modest second line numbers on a stacked team. I think he is a good player especially in his own end but I don't think he moves the needle offensively. Imo in order to really take that step we need a 2C that can drive and produce at a high level while being good in our own end.

We already have defensive specialists in Copp and Lowry and an Offensive first guy in Scheifele. I feel Cirelli would likely be a slightly better Copp for us which is good but not exactly someone I am going to back up the brinks truck for. If you can get him for a reasonable price then you go for it but imo he will cost more then what he truely is.
 
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ps241

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I hear you on the risk. It would have been great to get O'Reilly as he fits that archetype when he was available. But then there were character issues on him as well. Wasn't he the guy who drove drunk into a Tim Hortons restaurant? I guess I am OK taking a chance on players with character issues if you believe you can help the kid grow as a person.

As I mentioned Patrick isn't my first choice but I'm not sure if there is another center who can realistically be acquired that plays that prototypical Maurice game. Do you have any suggestions?


Ok I finally got back after my crazy day.

first off I would like to dig in on the character thing. I want to be clear I don’t get totally hung up on if a guy unpopular.

With ROR I think he has good character but he made a very stupid mistake. I have heard mostly good things about him as a stand up guy. Yea I would have loved to have got our hands on ROR from Buffalo but it was not meant to be.

My issue with Patrick is very different. It’s twofold really, first off he has missed all of his draft +3 season so far with a “migraine disorder”. His injury history concerns me allot. Secondly when it comes to character my challenge is around his professionalism and drive. Things can always change but between his dodgy health and his give a shit factor I have concerns about his development.

He had the pedigree but they don’t gift It to guys that mail it in. Too many really talented players working their bags off all year now to float in the off season.

EK9 was an unpopular teammate but he never cheated the fans and worked hard at his craft so I could plug my nose and accept him on the Jets. The character that concerns me is when I think it can stunt a young players growth. I do like Patrick’s game and hope he gets healthy and finds a passion for putting in the work.

I have to dig in on options I wish we could have traded for on my next posts. Just to prove I could do a deal with the Devil I think Kadri is a wanker but he would have made a good 2nd line centre on our team. I don’t like him or his antics at all but I think he is a talented hockey player. ROR goes without saying.

Neither one of those guys went for stupid prices either. Sometimes an acquiring team has to be in the right place.

I like Copp way more than most so I am panicking less than other fans on our board.
 

Adam da bomb

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Ok I finally got back after my crazy day.

first off I would like to dig in on the character thing. I want to be clear I don’t get totally hung up on if a guy unpopular.

With ROR I think he has good character but he made a very stupid mistake. I have heard mostly good things about him as a stand up guy. Yea I would have loved to have got our hands on ROR from Buffalo but it was not meant to be.

My issue with Patrick is very different. It’s twofold really, first off he has missed all of his draft +3 season so far with a “migraine disorder”. His injury history concerns me allot. Secondly when it comes to character my challenge is around his professionalism and drive. Things can always change but between his dodgy health and his give a shit factor I have concerns about his development.

He had the pedigree but they don’t gift It to guys that mail it in. Too many really talented players working their bags off all year now to float in the off season.

EK9 was an unpopular teammate but he never cheated the fans and worked hard at his craft so I could plug my nose and accept him on the Jets. The character that concerns me is when I think it can stunt a young players growth. I do like Patrick’s game and hope he gets healthy and finds a passion for putting in the work.

I have to dig in on options I wish we could have traded for on my next posts. Just to prove I could do a deal with the Devil I think Kadri is a wanker but he would have made a good 2nd line centre on our team. I don’t like him or his antics at all but I think he is a talented hockey player. ROR goes without saying.

Neither one of those guys went for stupid prices either. Sometimes an acquiring team has to be in the right place.

I like Copp way more than most so I am panicking less than other fans on our board.
Isn't Kadri just a 3c?
 

surixon

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Ok I finally got back after my crazy day.

first off I would like to dig in on the character thing. I want to be clear I don’t get totally hung up on if a guy unpopular.

With ROR I think he has good character but he made a very stupid mistake. I have heard mostly good things about him as a stand up guy. Yea I would have loved to have got our hands on ROR from Buffalo but it was not meant to be.

My issue with Patrick is very different. It’s twofold really, first off he has missed all of his draft +3 season so far with a “migraine disorder”. His injury history concerns me allot. Secondly when it comes to character my challenge is around his professionalism and drive. Things can always change but between his dodgy health and his give a shit factor I have concerns about his development.

He had the pedigree but they don’t gift It to guys that mail it in. Too many really talented players working their bags off all year now to float in the off season.

EK9 was an unpopular teammate but he never cheated the fans and worked hard at his craft so I could plug my nose and accept him on the Jets. The character that concerns me is when I think it can stunt a young players growth. I do like Patrick’s game and hope he gets healthy and finds a passion for putting in the work.

I have to dig in on options I wish we could have traded for on my next posts. Just to prove I could do a deal with the Devil I think Kadri is a wanker but he would have made a good 2nd line centre on our team. I don’t like him or his antics at all but I think he is a talented hockey player. ROR goes without saying.

Neither one of those guys went for stupid prices either. Sometimes an acquiring team has to be in the right place.

I like Copp way more than most so I am panicking less than other fans on our board.

Interesting. I had not heard of any work ethic issues but yeah if you aren't willing to work for it then others will pass you by. I figure that this is most certainly a trait that can be learned as most everyones favorite 2.0 Jet in Buff had serious issues with his off ice conditioning, and had a nasty habit of over extending his shifts by a lot. He changed once Maurice got here and started training hard in the offseason. Based on everything I am hearing Patrick has had to be very dedicated in dealing with this migrain issue to make the progress he has. Perhaps having a serious ailment that has put his career in jeopardy humbled him a bit and he will come back willing to work hard. Or maintains the status quo and remains what he is a decent 3C or fades out of the league. Clearly the Jets would need to do their due diligence on him if they are interested in acquiring him. All of this is predated on him getting back and playing this year with no ill effects. He was fairly close to being cleared when the play stopped from what I heard. Also I am currently looking at all C's drafted with a lottery pick since the lockout and Patrick doesn't look out of place for his first two years to date. I think people are a bit too quick that his pre migraine development was a disappointment.

I also never had any issues with Kane's drive and play on the ice. I didn't like his lack of professionalism (Being late for meetings, getting drunk at the NBA allstar game and not making it back for a team function) etc.

Kadri wouldn't have been bad, but at his age he likely would have only been a short term solution at 2C.

I also don't mind Copp but ultimately think he is best served as our 3C. Enough offense for good tertiary scoring, coupled with excellent defense.
 

ps241

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Interesting. I had not heard of any work ethic issues but yeah if you aren't willing to work for it then others will pass you by. I figure that this is most certainly a trait that can be learned as most everyones favorite 2.0 Jet in Buff had serious issues with his off ice conditioning, and had a nasty habit of over extending his shifts by a lot. He changed once Maurice got here and started training hard in the offseason. Based on everything I am hearing Patrick has had to be very dedicated in dealing with this migrain issue to make the progress he has. Perhaps having a serious ailment that has put his career in jeopardy humbled him a bit and he will come back willing to work hard. Or maintains the status quo and remains what he is a decent 3C or fades out of the league. Clearly the Jets would need to do their due diligence on him if they are interested in acquiring him. All of this is predated on him getting back and playing this year with no ill effects. He was fairly close to being cleared when the play stopped from what I heard. Also I am currently looking at all C's drafted with a lottery pick since the lockout and Patrick doesn't look out of place for his first two years to date. I think people are a bit too quick that his pre migraine development was a disappointment.

I also never had any issues with Kane's drive and play on the ice. I didn't like his lack of professionalism (Being late for meetings, getting drunk at the NBA allstar game and not making it back for a team function) etc.

Kadri wouldn't have been bad, but at his age he likely would have only been a short term solution at 2C.

I also don't mind Copp but ultimately think he is best served as our 3C. Enough offense for good tertiary scoring, coupled with excellent defense.

All fair points and interesting exchange of ideas.

Patrick has the pedigree to be a good 2nd line centre and his stock has never been lower. I am not sure about you but one other major red flag for me was Philly overpaying for 2nd line centre Kevin Hayes before a Patrick had any migraine issues? Nolan was heading into his draft plus 3 season why would they need to overpay Kevin Hayes for 7 years to fill the second line centre roll long term? That’s not a hedge your bets contract. I felt at the time and still do that move was paving the way to cut their losses with Patrick while he still had value (until he got the injury).

I think Copp would make a great 3rd line centre but he needs to play on a line with Apples and Harkins or Roslo. I think we have the pieces to build a more balanced line with those 3 that can score more and still play great defense. Copp Lowry are mouth watering defensively and can go up against the best in the league so I get why Mo weaponizes that option so often but it really limits our teams scoring especially on the road with the last change.

I like some of the options you pitched but have not watched players like Necas and Devorak enough to comment. Strome has the offensive chops for sure but he despite his height he plays a soft game with really bad D and I am not sure we need more of that in our top 6?

Either way it’s a fun topic to kick around and you are providing thoughtful options for solutions which takes work and I appreciate that.
 
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surixon

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All fair points and interesting exchange of ideas.

Patrick has the pedigree to be a good 2nd line centre and his stock has never been lower. I am not sure about you but one other major red flag for me was Philly overpaying for 2nd line centre Kevin Hayes before a Patrick had any migraine issues? Nolan was heading into his draft plus 3 season why would they need to overpay Kevin Hayes for 7 years to fill the second line centre roll long term? That’s not a hedge your bets contract. I felt at the time and still do that move was paving the way to cut their losses with Patrick while he still had value (until he got the injury).

I think Copp would make a great 3rd line centre but he needs to play on a line with Apples and Harkins or Roslo. I think we have the pieces to build a more balanced line with those 3 that can score more and still play great defense. Copp Lowry are mouth watering defensively and can go up against the best in the league so I get why Mo weaponizes that option so often but it really limits our teams scoring especially on the road with the last change.

I like some of the options you pitched but have not watched players like Necas and Devorak enough to comment. Strome has the offensive chops for sure but he despite his height he plays a soft game with really bad D and I am not sure we need more of that in our top 6?

Either way it’s a fun topic to kick around and you are providing thoughtful options for solutions which takes work and I appreciate that.

Thanks, it has been fun discussing this with you.

I also found it interesting that Philly went out and overpaid Hayes. I am unsure if that was a shot at Patrick or a new GM coming in wanting to make a big splash, could have been both. Philly has never been known to have the most patient ownership group around so who knows.

I agree fully with your ideal of putting Copp with Harkins and Roslovic on a more balanced third line. I think the three looked good together last year. I like Lowry but he doesn't score enough for a new aged third line.

Also not a big fan of Stromes defense and it likely wouldn't mesh well with the wingers we have.

I also haven't seen enough of a player like Dvorak but all the numbers look positive on a weaker team.
 
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Mortimer Snerd

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The 10.8% is the teams shooting percentage with him on the ice (i.e the shooting percentage of everyone on the ice with him on).

For reference the median on ice shot % in the NHL this past season was 8.3%. So the lightning beat the median by 26 % with him on the ice. Not very sustainable imo.

To hit the point home even more the best player of his generation in Crosby has a career on ice shot % of 9.8%.

Edit NHL.com has a different on ice shot percentage of 10.8% which is still very high and unsustainable.

I don't see the validity here. Not every player/team will match the average. SH% is a stat that should be more susceptible to different styles than some others. Evander Kane took every shot opportunity he could get leading to a very high shot total and a lower sh%. I noticed that Cirelli does not take a lot of shots. Perhaps he takes higher quality shots. Just guessing there. The comparison to Crosby doesn't mean much without looking at other factors that go into creating that number. Comparing Cirelli's sh% in other years, leagues, teams, would be more informative. If he normally has a high sh% then it is not unsustainable. If he does not, then it is.

I know that I can look back and see that he has always scored well, so it is not just 1 year, 1 team, 1 set of linemates. That may be superficial, but it is also factual. OTOH, I can look back at Copp's career and see that he has never been a particularly high scorer.

I have no problem with questioning Cirelli's value. He may disappoint if we got him, especially after paying a high price. But any question marks attached to Cirelli don't lead me to Patrick instead. And Copp is not a solution. He is an adequate fill-in if we have injuries but he lacks the offence we need from our 2C.

Maybe Nick Schmaltz would be a better target. He is a little older and more experienced. He has produced a higher peak season on a weaker team. He has produced similarly this year on a much lower scoring team. He also might be available for similar reasons. What are your thoughts on him?
 

Mortimer Snerd

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Isn't Helly signed for at least 3 more years? It's not like he's pushing 30 and we are already worrying about his successor? I think that gives us multiple drafts to pick a couple of goalies late. I think he plays as a Jet for the next 6-7 years so whoever we pick is a back up for the next 6-7 years. If Berdin is ready in 2 years that's 4 years he dwells as a back-up losing value.

Goalies sometimes take quite a while to develop. They don't tend to be that consistently good year after year. Maybe Helle breaks a leg and is never the same again. I just like to have a potential replacement developing in the system - always, if possible. Having a potential Vezina winning goalie in the NHL now has nothing to do with it.

On top of that, he is an entertaining player who I want to see playing for the Jets.

But none of that is the reason I don't trade him. The main reason is that he adds practically nothing to the value of a package. So why trade a player who may come in handy if you get nothing back? It makes no sense at all to trade him.
 
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surixon

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I don't see the validity here. Not every player/team will match the average. SH% is a stat that should be more susceptible to different styles than some others. Evander Kane took every shot opportunity he could get leading to a very high shot total and a lower sh%. I noticed that Cirelli does not take a lot of shots. Perhaps he takes higher quality shots. Just guessing there. The comparison to Crosby doesn't mean much without looking at other factors that go into creating that number. Comparing Cirelli's sh% in other years, leagues, teams, would be more informative. If he normally has a high sh% then it is not unsustainable. If he does not, then it is.

I know that I can look back and see that he has always scored well, so it is not just 1 year, 1 team, 1 set of linemates. That may be superficial, but it is also factual. OTOH, I can look back at Copp's career and see that he has never been a particularly high scorer.

I have no problem with questioning Cirelli's value. He may disappoint if we got him, especially after paying a high price. But any question marks attached to Cirelli don't lead me to Patrick instead. And Copp is not a solution. He is an adequate fill-in if we have injuries but he lacks the offence we need from our 2C.

Maybe Nick Schmaltz would be a better target. He is a little older and more experienced. He has produced a higher peak season on a weaker team. He has produced similarly this year on a much lower scoring team. He also might be available for similar reasons. What are your thoughts on him?

There is too much variation with 5 players on the ice even if Cirelli himself is a selective shooter. Your counting on everyone on the ice having very high individed shooting percentages. Also Cirelli himself isn't a big goal scorer, he was only on pace for 18 and scored 15 the year before. The high shot percentage is likely due to Killorn doubling his career average shooting percentage.

Also I am not sure why you think he's scored much at every level.

Draft year 0.53 ppg
Draft plus 1 0.95 ppg
Draft plus 2 1.25 ppg

Those aren't particularly great OHL scoring rates.

But I digress, I personally wouldn't mind Schmaltz. He has consistently scored at a good second line rate with good underlying numbers.
 

BatVader

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Rumours that Henrik Borgstrom might be leaving FLA for Finland.
He’s a 22/23yr old, 6’3, left handed C that was picked 23rd OA in 2016.
Hasn’t really been tearing it up in the AHL or in his NHL appearances, but still young enough to change that up.

Not saying he’d be a 2C option, but if he was available cheap enough, he could be a good pickup for depth.

Just don’t know enough about him to gauge potential
 
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