Rumour, Trade & Free Agent Discussion

[Mortimer Snerd]

Bolts can't take cap back, that's why they might have to trade him and the only reason to trade him. They handcuffed themselves with too many No move contracts clauses and now either some very good young players have to give the team a huge break at contract time or someone needs to be traded. Either way if they do trade him, they can't take contracts (of any significant value) back is the point. Bolts are hard up against the cap, will be interesting how it works out.

PS is the 12th OA is a mid range pick, but depending how the season ends it could get worse no one knows yet (not late though, 20+).

If the Jets are given the opportunity to make the POs and get in they could still have a pick as low as 16.

TBL have a problem with the cap even without pandemic effects. A stagnant cap wasn't likely in their plans but it is likely to happen now. It is hard to see how they can handle it without moving Cirelli. But every year there seems to be at least 1 team painted into a corner that manages to squirm out of it. TBL have been one of those teams for several years already. The Stamkos contract was supposed to sink them. That was 4 years ago already. So I am not ruling out the possibility that they will find a relatively painless way out of it. But until they do, I am assuming that they have to trade Cirelli. It is up to Chevy to be the one who gets him.

 

[Hunter368]

If the Jets are given the opportunity to make the POs and get in they could still have a pick as low as 16.

TBL have a problem with the cap even without pandemic effects. A stagnant cap wasn't likely in their plans but it is likely to happen now. It is hard to see how they can handle it without moving Cirelli. But every year there seems to be at least 1 team painted into a corner that manages to squirm out of it. TBL have been one of those teams for several years already. The Stamkos contract was supposed to sink them. That was 4 years ago already. So I am not ruling out the possibility that they will find a relatively painless way out of it. But until they do, I am assuming that they have to trade Cirelli. It is up to Chevy to be the one who gets him.

Let's hope.......

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

A trade for him is likely heavy futures, possible with a cheap roster contract. Example: Lowry (50% retained), 1st & still a decent plus (pick/prospect) I suspect. Lowry at 50%retained helps them win the cup next year plus two nice futures (including a 1st). I'm not advocating doing it at this point, just speculating the cost.

I wonder how many would do Lowry @ 50%, 2020 1st & Jack/2nd Rd pick. Very expensive yes, but if it resolved our 2C issue for years to come.......might be interesting.

I would do Lowry 50% + 1st + 2nd this year. I have considered adding Roslovic instead of the 2nd but hesitate. Roslovic also may not be the best piece for TBL. He is an RFA needing a raise. The raise might be moderate on a 1 or 2 year deal but I think they would prefer to avoid even that.

With Lowry being the only piece from our current roster, or even probable roster for a couple of years we are keeping the same number of C's. If everything else we give up is futures we can afford to go pretty far. We are planning/hoping to win the Cup with the core roster we would then have. That is assuming we keep DeMelo and further strengthen the D corps internally.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Agreed, I would do it also........the problem is it's not about fair value it's about meeting the Bolts needs & outbidding the next closest team......as expensive as that package is to lose I'm not sure if it would get it done. Depends on what the Bolts want/like & how much other teams want him & are willing to pay.

The bolded is quite true, but we are up to talking a big value package here that we can afford, even if it hurts. A lot of potential competitors will be eliminated by their inability to match that. Some that could, won't.

Since the whole premise here is TBL's cap problem, we can be pretty sure we know what they will want. They will want little to no cap hit .... futures.

 

[Hunter368]

I would do Lowry 50% + 1st + 2nd this year. I have considered adding Roslovic instead of the 2nd but hesitate. Roslovic also may not be the best piece for TBL. He is an RFA needing a raise. The raise might be moderate on a 1 or 2 year deal but I think they would prefer to avoid even that.

With Lowry being the only piece from our current roster, or even probable roster for a couple of years we are keeping the same number of C's. If everything else we give up is futures we can afford to go pretty far. We are planning/hoping to win the Cup with the core roster we would then have. That is assuming we keep DeMelo and further strengthen the D corps internally.

Yeh my thought on that offer/idea is that losing Cirelli would hurt the Bolts chances at a cup this year......but they also can't afford to take much cap back. So give Lowry at 50% helps their depth, PK, face offs, physical, defensvely this year going for the cup and then add our 2020 1st which is a mid range pick (so good value) and either Jack or a 2nd Rd pick. So some help now (Lowry, maybe Jack) plus nice future (1st, maybe 2nd if they don't want/can't afford Jack). I think it's a solid offer, logical, fills a void at C after losing Cirelli.........just not sure it's the best offer they get for him. Love to have Cirelli though, damn he would fix our 2C issue immediately.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Or we could sign a cheap RHD vet for that bottom pair and keep Beaulieu.
Lots of options and possibilities

Beaulieu is not the one I would keep, but yes, there a lot of possibilities.

 

[Hunter368]

The bolded is quite true, but we are up to talking a big value package here that we can afford, even if it hurts. A lot of potential competitors will be eliminated by their inability to match that. Some that could, won't.

Since the whole premise here is TBL's cap problem, we can be pretty sure we know what they will want. They will want little to no cap hit .... futures.

Facts.........that's why my offered was structured heavy futures plus a Lowry at 50% retained......piece to help this year and pieces to help moving forward.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

The post you liked.....I akowledged it is a mid ranged pick.....not late.

And I am acknowledging that it could still change - possibly.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Let's hope.......

I was beginning to believe that we could do some damage if we could make the PO. I am now resigned to missing that opportunity. I'll take #12 as a consolation prize. Definitely not as good but nice to have anyway.

 

[Hunter368]

I was beginning to believe that we could do some damage if we could make the PO. I am now resigned to missing that opportunity. I'll take #12 as a consolation prize. Definitely not as good but nice to have anyway.

Signing DeMelo & trading for Cirelli (then signing him long term) would pretty much make my entire summer happy. Then maybe add a vet LHD bridge solution depending if our young LHD prospects are ready for top 4 mins or not........puts us in a great position next year to be serious cup contenders. Depending how the kids do in our bottom six during the season, maybe add 1-2 guys at the TDL next year if required (meaning if the kids struggle) and we are a very good team again.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Yeh my thought on that offer/idea is that losing Cirelli would hurt the Bolts chances at a cup this year......but they also can't afford to take much cap back. So give Lowry at 50% helps their depth, PK, face offs, physical, defensvely this year going for the cup and then add our 2020 1st which is a mid range pick (so good value) and either Jack or a 2nd Rd pick. So some help now (Lowry, maybe Jack) plus nice future (1st, maybe 2nd if they don't want/can't afford Jack). I think it's a solid offer, logical, fills a void at C after losing Cirelli.........just not sure it's the best offer they get for him. Love to have Cirelli though, damn he would fix our 2C issue immediately.

The auction scenario seems to hardly ever happen, even though it is the obvious way to get best value. The GM's just don't seem to work that way. The closest they ever seem to get is some kind of blind auction. Some smaller number of teams are invited to submit an offer. The best one wins without much in the way of further competitive bidding. They may or may not try getting the highest bidder to up the offer a bit. They may not necessarily accept any offer.

Considering that, we need to make our 1st offer damn good to either win outright or to get the chance to tinker with the details a bit. I think I would offer 1st + Lowry at 50% + an unspecified add. The unspecified add gets a return phone call to pin down just what that is. With that conversation started, I push hard to find TBL's price. IMO adding a 2nd should get it done. I would go further if necessary. TBL would name what they wanted for that add. So from then on we know the parameters of the price.

I think Poolman could tip the scales for them. They will have a strong LD and Cernak and Foote on the right side. Poolman could round out their top 6 with L/R balance. He would give them a more experienced RHD than Foote.

Without getting silly, I would do whatever it takes. I'm not giving them Scheifele, Connor or Ehlers. And they wouldn't want any of those contracts. I also wouldn't give them Morrissey and they wouldn't want his contract either. I would consider one of Samberg or Heinola but I don't think those are ideal from TBL's POV. If they asked for one of those, I would encourage them to ask for something else instead, but we could part with 1 of the 2 if absolutely necessary.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Signing DeMelo & trading for Cirelli (then signing him long term) would pretty much make my entire summer happy. Then maybe add a vet LHD bridge solution depending if our young LHD prospects are ready for top 4 mins or not........puts us in a great position next year to be serious cup contenders. Depending how the kids do in our bottom six during the season, maybe add 1-2 guys at the TDL next year if required (meaning if the kids struggle) and we are a very good team again.

I don't see the rentals up front as necessary unless we have injuries. I think the bottom 6 we can put together with what we have is very good.

We still might be a little shaky on D and might need to rent a little help there. Nothing too flashy (expensive) there though.

I really wish Chevy would get DeMelo locked up. That is the big uncertainty that bothers me right now. He is not a star player but I think he is key to next year's roster.

 

[Whileee]

That’s what I said.....young guys will have to do the team a favour like the team has convinced players to do in the past via short term low cap hit deals. Bolts have been very successful using them in the past.....that’s not a guarantee they will this summer but they done it many times in the past and have a lot of things going for them that players like. Time will tell......I’m just saying assuming the Bolts are screwed and that we’re going to steal Cirelli dirt cheap is highly unlikely to happen.

I agree with this. The Bolts will be fine if both players agree to really below-market deals. That might happen, but if there is reluctance by either or both players (and their agents), then the Bolts will need to make a move. I suppose there is also the risk of one of the players signing an offer sheet. If negotiations aren't going smoothly, TB might decide to cut their losses and make a trade to avoid losing one of them to an offer sheet that they can't match.

Here is how dire the TB situation is... (assuming a flat cap of 81.5M).

If they trade Killorn for futures (he's the only player with a high enough salary to make much difference that doesn't have a full NTC), then they'll have about $9.8M in cap space with a roster of 14.

Let's say they trade Cernak for futures, and fill in the roster with ELC level players.

They would have somewhere around $5M-5.5M in cap space to sign both Sergachev and Cirelli. Based on Evolving Hockey's projections, Sergachev is projected to receive as low as $4.2M (on a bridge), and Cirelli is projected to cost at least $3.77M (on a bridge). Let's say Sergachev gives them a big break at $3.25M for a bridge, they would only have about $1.75M-$2.25M for Cirelli, which is way below market value. You could see one of their eastern conference competitors dangling a 4-5 year $6.3M offer sheet in front of Cirelli, full of signing bonuses. Would he take a deal worth a total of $2M-$4M instead of cashing in with a $31.5M contract offer on the table? Maybe, but you'd think the agent would have him thinking long and hard before taking that sort of risk.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

They can trade Killorn, and likely will, but they'll still have a very tight cap situation and will have a very tough time signing Cirelli and Sergachev unless they take huge discounts.

Killorn's NTC becomes modified July 1. But a 16 team no trade list still makes him hard to move. He just puts all teams with cap space and/or a need for him on his list. Not impossible to move but not easy.

 

[Whileee]

Killorn's NTC becomes modified July 1. But a 16 team no trade list still makes him hard to move. He just puts all teams with cap space and/or a need for him on his list. Not impossible to move but not easy.

They'll find a way to move Killorn, I would bet. The rest of it's still very tough.

 

[Hunter368]

I agree with this. The Bolts will be fine if both players agree to really below-market deals. That might happen, but if there is reluctance by either or both players (and their agents), then the Bolts will need to make a move. I suppose there is also the risk of one of the players signing an offer sheet. If negotiations aren't going smoothly, TB might decide to cut their losses and make a trade to avoid losing one of them to an offer sheet that they can't match.

Here is how dire the TB situation is... (assuming a flat cap of 81.5M).

If they trade Killorn for futures (he's the only player with a high enough salary to make much difference that doesn't have a full NTC), then they'll have about $9.8M in cap space with a roster of 14.

Let's say they trade Cernak for futures, and fill in the roster with ELC level players.

They would have somewhere around $5M-5.5M in cap space to sign both Sergachev and Cirelli. Based on Evolving Hockey's projections, Sergachev is projected to receive as low as $4.2M (on a bridge), and Cirelli is projected to cost at least $3.77M (on a bridge). Let's say Sergachev gives them a big break at $3.25M for a bridge, they would only have about $1.75M-$2.25M for Cirelli, which is way below market value. You could see one of their eastern conference competitors dangling a 4-5 year $6.3M offer sheet in front of Cirelli, full of signing bonuses. Would he take a deal worth a total of $2M-$4M instead of cashing in with a $31.5M contract offer on the table? Maybe, but you'd think the agent would have him thinking long and hard before taking that sort of risk.

Agreed

That’s partly why in one of my much earlier posts I listed Cirelli as a possible OS candidate or OS threat/trade candidate.....I do think he’s a real possibility to be no longer a Bolt next season via one way or another. I think he could create some frenzied actions by a group of GM’s out there with cap space to sign him to a deal via a OS or trade (obviously they would need cap space & pieces to interest Bolts if via trade). Very interested how it turns out, Chevy better be front & centre with the Bolts on speed dial.........Cirelli would be a significant improvement at 2C then what we have and is a long term solution so Chevy better be aggressive.

 

[Adam da bomb]

The auction scenario seems to hardly ever happen, even though it is the obvious way to get best value. The GM's just don't seem to work that way. The closest they ever seem to get is some kind of blind auction. Some smaller number of teams are invited to submit an offer. The best one wins without much in the way of further competitive bidding. They may or may not try getting the highest bidder to up the offer a bit. They may not necessarily accept any offer.

Considering that, we need to make our 1st offer damn good to either win outright or to get the chance to tinker with the details a bit. I think I would offer 1st + Lowry at 50% + an unspecified add. The unspecified add gets a return phone call to pin down just what that is. With that conversation started, I push hard to find TBL's price. IMO adding a 2nd should get it done. I would go further if necessary. TBL would name what they wanted for that add. So from then on we know the parameters of the price.

I think Poolman could tip the scales for them. They will have a strong LD and Cernak and Foote on the right side. Poolman could round out their top 6 with L/R balance. He would give them a more experienced RHD than Foote.

Without getting silly, I would do whatever it takes. I'm not giving them Scheifele, Connor or Ehlers. And they wouldn't want any of those contracts. I also wouldn't give them Morrissey and they wouldn't want his contract either. I would consider one of Samberg or Heinola but I don't think those are ideal from TBL's POV. If they asked for one of those, I would encourage them to ask for something else instead, but we could part with 1 of the 2 if absolutely necessary.

As long as TB is willing to talk with us. As you say it’s not really an auction. They don’t give every team a chance.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

They'll find a way to move Killorn, I would bet. The rest of it's still very tough.

I don't exactly disagree. He is the most obvious way to go if they can. It is going to be very tough for cap strapped teams to move cap this year. Some team will need to really want Killorn because they might very well need to move some cap to make room for him. Just saying it won't be easy. I don't think it can be taken for granted. And it may not be enough.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I agree with this. The Bolts will be fine if both players agree to really below-market deals. That might happen, but if there is reluctance by either or both players (and their agents), then the Bolts will need to make a move. I suppose there is also the risk of one of the players signing an offer sheet. If negotiations aren't going smoothly, TB might decide to cut their losses and make a trade to avoid losing one of them to an offer sheet that they can't match.

Here is how dire the TB situation is... (assuming a flat cap of 81.5M).

If they trade Killorn for futures (he's the only player with a high enough salary to make much difference that doesn't have a full NTC), then they'll have about $9.8M in cap space with a roster of 14.

Let's say they trade Cernak for futures, and fill in the roster with ELC level players.

They would have somewhere around $5M-5.5M in cap space to sign both Sergachev and Cirelli. Based on Evolving Hockey's projections, Sergachev is projected to receive as low as $4.2M (on a bridge), and Cirelli is projected to cost at least $3.77M (on a bridge). Let's say Sergachev gives them a big break at $3.25M for a bridge, they would only have about $1.75M-$2.25M for Cirelli, which is way below market value. You could see one of their eastern conference competitors dangling a 4-5 year $6.3M offer sheet in front of Cirelli, full of signing bonuses. Would he take a deal worth a total of $2M-$4M instead of cashing in with a $31.5M contract offer on the table? Maybe, but you'd think the agent would have him thinking long and hard before taking that sort of risk.

Another problem here is that I can't see them trading Cernak. They can more easily lose Cirelli. Of the 5 D men under team control Cernak is the only right hander. But even ignoring handedness they are short of D men. Foote makes 6, total. They have plenty of C's, even if some of them have been playing a wing recently it is mostly just because of a lack of room at C.

 

[Hunter368]

A Habs fan posted a thread/offer on the main boards for Cirelli......not going well for him. Haha

 

[BatVader]

A Habs fan posted a thread/offer on the main boards for Cirelli......not going well for him. Haha

Considering his offer was Poehling and a 2nd for Cirelli, I thinks he’s getting off rather easy

 

[Whileee]

A $6.3M x 4-5 yr offer sheet for Cirelli would cost a 2021 1st and 3rd. Cirelli would go for more than that. I think a 2020 1st (#12 overall) and a player like Roslovic would be close to a fair offer for Cirelli. He's a strong player, but he's not an elite first line player. Roslovic would probably produce very well on TB if he was given top regular minutes in the top 9.

 

[BatVader]

A $6.3M x 4-5 yr offer sheet for Cirelli would cost a 2021 1st and 3rd. Cirelli would go for more than that. I think a 2020 1st (#12 overall) and a player like Roslovic would be close to a fair offer for Cirelli. He's a strong player, but he's not an elite first line player. Roslovic would probably produce very well on TB if he was given top regular minutes in the top 9.

I think it would cost slightly more but I think your close.

 

[surixon]

Outside of Cirelli some other center targets:

Patrik (If he comes back and plays the last part of the season and shows decently well)
Dvorak (Coyotes will need to clear salary if they bring back Hall). He is still only 24 and was pacing 45 points this season, good faceoffs, and among the best on the team in terms of CF% and XGF%
Necas - Hurricanes now have Aho, Staal and Torchek down the middle. Would this open up the possibility of trading him for pieces to help on the wing?
Dylan Strome - Is rumored to be available. Good offensive player but is suspect defensively.
Lias Andersson - Hasn't produced that well as of yet but might just need a change of scenery.

Most of these players have some question marks and or holes in their games.

For the Jets purposes I would think Cirelli or Dvorak would fit best due to how far along they are in their development. Necas as a very young player and is likely only available for a large overpay. I still like Patrik's style of play and think he fits this teams identity but he has to be healthy to even consider him. Not really interested in Strome and Andersson might have some nice upside but is very unproven.

 

[surixon]

I think it would cost slightly more but I think your close.

Use the threat of an offer sheet as leverage to drive the price down a bit.