Speculation: Rumour, Trade, and Free Agent Speculation 2018-19 - Part IV

[bustamente]

Going to be some interesting numbers thrown at Stone as a free agent, guy is making over 7 this year.

 

[BigZ65]

Carolina is such a bizarre team right now. I don’t think it hurts to have conversations. I could see them going full rebuild around a few players and getting rid of everything else. Only impediment to that kind of thing is the salary floor.

That Hanifin deal is still a head scratcher to me and I’d like to be the recipient of elite young talent for a couple decent players but nothing all that special.

 

[Whileee]

I agree. In Stone's three best years he scored 26 in 80 GP (14-15), 23 in 75 GP (15-16), and 22 in 71 GP (16-17). Both Ehlers and Connor have bettered any of those years goal-wise, and could very well again this year and for many more. Stone's numbers look better in the last couple of years -- better than a point per game -- but he has also lost significant time to injury in those years. IMO a cost of Ehlers or Connor is too high.

I wouldn't trade Connor or Ehlers for Stone. Instead, I would trade Connor for other assets, and sign Stone as a UFA. That is the biggest value proposition for the Jets. The only other question is whether to acquire Stone as a rental this year, paying a rental price.

Trading Connor would be to free up cap and roster space for Stone, and to gain other needed assets. If you could acquire a really good top-4 RD, then you could trade Trouba for other future assets, creating more cap space that would be needed for Stone.

Just for fun, here's a "rental" trade for Stone, and then a blockbuster that assumes the Jets can resign Stone as a UFA...

Trade 1 (before trade deadline):

To Wpg: Mark Stone
To Ott: 2019 1st round pick, Nic Petan

(Assumes that the Jets have clarity that Stone will sign an extension with the Jets).

Trade 2 (at the draft):

To Phi: Connor, Trouba
To Wpg: Sanheim, Frost, Farabee (or 2019 1st)

OR

To Car: Connor
To Wpg: Pesce + 2nd

and

To Phi: Trouba
To Wpg: Frost and 2019 1st

Jets pay Laine and Stone about $9M each per year. They spend an extra $2 million on Stone (vs. Connor), but save $2 million or so on D with Sanheim or Pesce (vs. Trouba).

 

[Huffer]

Not that I want to lose Connor or Trouba, but Whilee, that's exactly how the Jets would have to do it IMO.

 

[DRW204]

We want to trade away all our speed? I’d be careful of that.

not sure how you get that.... Trouba's return would replace (and perhaps garner more) whatever is lost in Pesce trade basically.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Yep, figured its more, but not sure how much. Perrault, 2nd, another prospect?

If its Vesa, the add is Apples.
If its Apples the add is Vesa.

Only half kidding. I think he is pretty highly valued there and his contract is a big bonus.

I would (somewhat reluctantly) do Vesa +. Add could be 2nd or Petan. I think they might like Perreault. Maybe if he is the add we get a 2nd coming back our way. Does that sound about right? The trouble with moving those 2 is that I have been penciling Vesa in as the Perreault replacement. But we do have other options.

Mau seems to have decided on going with Lemieux. I have mixed feelings about that but he does bring some grit and has been behaving himself since the suspension. It all works out if Copp plays 4C, Laine plays LW and both Rosie and Apples play RW.

If Pesce could play the left side then when Buff and Ehlers come back:
Ehlers - Scheif - Wheeler
Laine - Little - Rosie/Apples
Connor - Lowry - Tanev
Lemieux - Cop - Apples/Rosie

JMo - Trouba
Pesce - Buff
Kuli - Myers

That looks damn good for this year. No need to rent a LD. That is almost like being able to add the price of that rental to the return (1st +?).

Next year with Trouba gone Pesce moves to 1RD. Trouba could return Sanheim +, or an upgrade at C.

 

[DRW204]

I wouldn't trade Connor or Ehlers for Stone. Instead, I would trade Connor for other assets, and sign Stone as a UFA. That is the biggest value proposition for the Jets. The only other question is whether to acquire Stone as a rental this year, paying a rental price.

Trading Connor would be to free up cap and roster space for Stone, and to gain other needed assets. If you could acquire a really good top-4 RD, then you could trade Trouba for other future assets, creating more cap space that would be needed for Stone.

Just for fun, here's a "rental" trade for Stone, and then a blockbuster that assumes the Jets can resign Stone as a UFA...

Trade 1 (before trade deadline):

To Wpg: Mark Stone
To Ott: 2019 1st round pick, Nic Petan

(Assumes that the Jets have clarity that Stone will sign an extension with the Jets).

Trade 2 (at the draft):

To Phi: Connor, Trouba
To Wpg: Sanheim, Frost, Farabee (or 2019 1st)

OR

To Car: Connor
To Wpg: Pesce + 2nd

and

To Phi: Trouba
To Wpg: Frost and 2019 1st

Jets pay Laine and Stone about $9M each per year. They spend an extra $2 million on Stone (vs. Connor), but save $2 million or so on D with Sanheim or Pesce (vs. Trouba).

well done. basically summarizes my earlier post with actual transactions haha

I aswell thinking Philly as the viable trade partner for Trouba (Frost+2019 1st) and then flip a Fwd to CAR for Pesce to replace Trouba as a Top 4RD on a good contract

 

[puck stoppa]

not sure how you get that.... Trouba's return would replace (and perhaps garner more) whatever is lost in Pesce trade basically.

I just don’t think one year of Trouba gets a great return. If he extends with the team we trade him to then I agree the return will be nice, but I just get the feeling he’d rather go UFA and pick his team. So one year of Trouba won’t get you a Connor or Ehlers in return.

 

[puck stoppa]

well done. basically summarizes my earlier post with actual transactions haha

I aswell thinking Philly as the viable trade partner for Trouba (Frost+2019 1st) and then flip a Fwd to CAR for Pesce to replace Trouba as a Top 4RD on a good contract

Frost is not Connor or Ehlers level imo and a first is not a guarantee.

 

[DRW204]

Frost is not Connor or Ehlers level imo and a first is not a guarantee.

yes but Stone can replace one of them as he illustrated and the salary is close to a wash (Connor+Trouba vs Pesce+Stone). if Frost can end up as a C in the show that'll be an additional boon. 2019 1st may not be a guarantee, and it'll likely come with some protection but I trust the teams drafting in the 1st and development to land an impact player.

not saying i would do any of this, id rather just sign Trouba and avoid all this (obviously that doesn't seem like a strong possibility) but is a fun discussion topic

perhaps canes let Pesce go for a package with Roslovc+? Not sure

 

[Daximus]

Frost is not Connor or Ehlers level imo and a first is not a guarantee.

I think Frost is absolutely on par with Ehlers and Connor. He can play center and wing and is a very versatile player with a shot that is easily on Connor and Ehlers level. I seriously doubt Philly will trade him for a year of Trouba though. I sure as hell wouldn't if he was my prospect.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

You've got him up there on a pedestal but some depth charts have him #3 among RHD & # 6 on the Canes D! If he's good at moving the puck, I'd have no concerns that his offensive numbers aren't the greatest.

How on a pedestal? His numbers are great and have been from his 1st season in the NHL. AFAIK, he is an adequate puck mover and outstanding defensively. I don't know anything about 'some depth charts'. Whose? & Why? & So what? Look at the RHD on that team.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Maybe Pesce explodes offensively and has career #s away from Carolina.... similar to Skinner & Lindholm

Funny, but that does seem to be the pattern. Something in the water? 'Canes are always lacking offense.

Pretty sure it is a case of correlation =/= causation, but it is there.

 

[Whileee]

not sure how you get that.... Trouba's return would replace (and perhaps garner more) whatever is lost in Pesce trade basically.

Yup. If you can move Trouba for a young player like Frost ++, you get a fast young player that could be a #2C at some point.

 

[puck stoppa]

How on a pedestal? His numbers are great and have been from his 1st season in the NHL. AFAIK, he is an adequate puck mover and outstanding defensively. I don't know anything about 'some depth charts'. Whose? & Why? & So what? Look at the RHD on that team.

We keep hearing how great the Canes Dmen are yet they can’t get themselves into a playoff spot.

 

[Whileee]

I think Frost is absolutely on par with Ehlers and Connor. He can play center and wing and is a very versatile player with a shot that is easily on Connor and Ehlers level. I seriously doubt Philly will trade him for a year of Trouba though. I sure as hell wouldn't if he was my prospect.

I think that the Flyers really need to win now. They have Giroux and Voracek and Couturier, along with Provorov moving into his prime. They also have an ownership group that doesn't want to keep waiting, as evidenced by them clearing out Hextall.

Connor is more "now" than Frost, and Trouba is exactly what they are likely looking for on D - a ready-made top-pairing RD that brings some physical bite to their team.

That's why I think that the Jets might be smart to augment their current core / window with a player by Stone, and perhaps move a young player heading into his second contract (like Connor) for more futures.

I think Trouba could be signed to a long-term deal with the Flyers, but if they don't have that in place then it's obviously a no-go from their perspective.

 

[Whileee]

We keep hearing how great the Canes Dmen are yet they can’t get themselves into a playoff spot.

I think that NHL teams can win with very good forwards and meh defense, but not with very good D and limited talent up front. Consider the Leafs / Pens vs. the Kings / Canes.

 

[DRW204]

We keep hearing how great the Canes Dmen are yet they can’t get themselves into a playoff spot.

they've had 897 goaltending last year and a 906 this year. they also don't have a great set of forwards (outside of Aho and TT) or scoring depth.

 

[Maukkis]

Aren't the Canes looking for goalscoring first and foremost? Hard to imagine Roslovic moving the needle whatsoever.

I'd rather not cheap out, in a way. You're not getting Slavin out of there alive, but Hamilton is a top tier defenseman in this league who could be had. Settling for Pesce means that we have to add another sizable contract, but there is next to nothing to give up that both makes sense and works cap wise (i.e. everybody we have basically makes either ELC money or will be a top tier asset like KC).

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I wouldn't trade Connor or Ehlers for Stone. Instead, I would trade Connor for other assets, and sign Stone as a UFA. That is the biggest value proposition for the Jets. The only other question is whether to acquire Stone as a rental this year, paying a rental price.

Trading Connor would be to free up cap and roster space for Stone, and to gain other needed assets. If you could acquire a really good top-4 RD, then you could trade Trouba for other future assets, creating more cap space that would be needed for Stone.

Just for fun, here's a "rental" trade for Stone, and then a blockbuster that assumes the Jets can resign Stone as a UFA...

Trade 1 (before trade deadline):

To Wpg: Mark Stone
To Ott: 2019 1st round pick, Nic Petan

(Assumes that the Jets have clarity that Stone will sign an extension with the Jets).

Trade 2 (at the draft):

To Phi: Connor, Trouba
To Wpg: Sanheim, Frost, Farabee (or 2019 1st)

OR

To Car: Connor
To Wpg: Pesce + 2nd

and

To Phi: Trouba
To Wpg: Frost and 2019 1st

Jets pay Laine and Stone about $9M each per year. They spend an extra $2 million on Stone (vs. Connor), but save $2 million or so on D with Sanheim or Pesce (vs. Trouba).

Nice to see people beginning to consider the possibility of trading Connor. Not that I'm in any hurry to trade him but it might be the smart thing to do - if we can get the right return.

If both Connor and Trouba are going to Philly, the return needs to be big. But I would be very surprised if Philly would part with Frost. I like their 1st, replacing the one we sent to Ott for Stone, only higher.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

We keep hearing how great the Canes Dmen are yet they can’t get themselves into a playoff spot.

Yup. Seems strange - I keep looking at their roster and thinking they are underperforming. Been that way for a few years. But their goaltending is always bad and they lack depth up front.

 

[Daximus]

I think that the Flyers really need to win now. They have Giroux and Voracek and Couturier, along with Provorov moving into his prime. They also have an ownership group that doesn't want to keep waiting, as evidenced by them clearing out Hextall.

Connor is more "now" than Frost, and Trouba is exactly what they are likely looking for on D - a ready-made top-pairing RD that brings some physical bite to their team.

That's why I think that the Jets might be smart to augment their current core / window with a player by Stone, and perhaps move a young player heading into his second contract (like Connor) for more futures.

I think Trouba could be signed to a long-term deal with the Flyers, but if they don't have that in place then it's obviously a no-go from their perspective.

I think Frost likely jumps into the NHL next year. They have Frost, Farabee, Rubstov, Laberge, Allison, Strome and Hart to go along with a young U23 core of Patrick, Sanheim, Konecny, Lindblom, Provorov, Myers and Ghost and Couts are only 25ish. If anything they should be looking to move out older players like JVR, Simmonds and eventually Voracek. Their unlikely to be a contender until their younger guys develop. But maybe they don't see that and we can capitalize on it.

 

[Maukkis]

Nice to see people beginning to consider the possibility of trading Connor. Not that I'm in any hurry to trade him but it might be the smart thing to do - if we can get the right return.

If both Connor and Trouba are going to Philly, the return needs to be big. But I would be very surprised if Philly would part with Frost. I like their 1st, replacing the one we sent to Ott for Stone, only higher.

With our four top wingers entering the phase in which they are all handsomely paid, we need to consider whether that hinders our ability of addressing other, possibly more important needs such as our defense or the 2C spot. If they're making 30+ million starting next year, I think it just might do that.

We don't really have cap dumps to shed, either. Kulikov and Perreault are locked up, yes, but they need to go just to fit the current core in. If we want to add to that, someone else will have to go.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I just don’t think one year of Trouba gets a great return. If he extends with the team we trade him to then I agree the return will be nice, but I just get the feeling he’d rather go UFA and pick his team. So one year of Trouba won’t get you a Connor or Ehlers in return.

If we can't have the acquiring team reach agreement with Trouba before the trade we are going to get burned on the return. It will be a whole different picture.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I think that the Flyers really need to win now. They have Giroux and Voracek and Couturier, along with Provorov moving into his prime. They also have an ownership group that doesn't want to keep waiting, as evidenced by them clearing out Hextall.

Connor is more "now" than Frost, and Trouba is exactly what they are likely looking for on D - a ready-made top-pairing RD that brings some physical bite to their team.

That's why I think that the Jets might be smart to augment their current core / window with a player by Stone, and perhaps move a young player heading into his second contract (like Connor) for more futures.

I think Trouba could be signed to a long-term deal with the Flyers, but if they don't have that in place then it's obviously a no-go from their perspective.

Maybe not a no-go if they can't be sure of signing Trouba but a (much) lower price. Does unsigned Trouba return Sanheim, 1 for 1, and they take their chances on signing him later?