Speculation: Rumour, Trade, and Free Agent Speculation 2018-19 - Part IV

[CaptainChef]

I wouldn't trade Connor or Ehlers for Stone. Instead, I would trade Connor for other assets, and sign Stone as a UFA. That is the biggest value proposition for the Jets. The only other question is whether to acquire Stone as a rental this year, paying a rental price.

Trading Connor would be to free up cap and roster space for Stone, and to gain other needed assets. If you could acquire a really good top-4 RD, then you could trade Trouba for other future assets, creating more cap space that would be needed for Stone.

Just for fun, here's a "rental" trade for Stone, and then a blockbuster that assumes the Jets can resign Stone as a UFA...

Trade 1 (before trade deadline):

To Wpg: Mark Stone
To Ott: 2019 1st round pick, Nic Petan

(Assumes that the Jets have clarity that Stone will sign an extension with the Jets).

Trade 2 (at the draft):

To Phi: Connor, Trouba
To Wpg: Sanheim, Frost, Farabee (or 2019 1st)

OR

To Car: Connor
To Wpg: Pesce + 2nd

and

To Phi: Trouba
To Wpg: Frost and 2019 1st


Jets pay Laine and Stone about $9M each per year. They spend an extra $2 million on Stone (vs. Connor), but save $2 million or so on D with Sanheim or Pesce (vs. Trouba).

Not bad, but assuming you do the Stone & Pesce trades you've traded away Connor, a 1st, 2nd, Petan and you've acquired Stone (a position play we don't really need) and probably solidified our D somewhat. Still requires dealing with Trouba & possibly fixing 2C.

That & I doubt we get Stone for a late 1st & Petan

 

[Board Bard]

I wouldn't trade Connor or Ehlers for Stone. Instead, I would trade Connor for other assets, and sign Stone as a UFA. That is the biggest value proposition for the Jets. The only other question is whether to acquire Stone as a rental this year, paying a rental price.

Trading Connor would be to free up cap and roster space for Stone, and to gain other needed assets. If you could acquire a really good top-4 RD, then you could trade Trouba for other future assets, creating more cap space that would be needed for Stone.

Just for fun, here's a "rental" trade for Stone, and then a blockbuster that assumes the Jets can resign Stone as a UFA...

Trade 1 (before trade deadline):

To Wpg: Mark Stone
To Ott: 2019 1st round pick, Nic Petan

(Assumes that the Jets have clarity that Stone will sign an extension with the Jets).

Trade 2 (at the draft):

To Phi: Connor, Trouba
To Wpg: Sanheim, Frost, Farabee (or 2019 1st)

OR

To Car: Connor
To Wpg: Pesce + 2nd

and

To Phi: Trouba
To Wpg: Frost and 2019 1st

Jets pay Laine and Stone about $9M each per year. They spend an extra $2 million on Stone (vs. Connor), but save $2 million or so on D with Sanheim or Pesce (vs. Trouba).

All of that is certainly better than trading Ehlers/Connor for Stone. Of the two, I'd rather see Connor go before Ehlers, as you seem to also.

I wouldn't pay Stone $9M AAV, especially for the likely 7 or 8 years he's going to get on term. There's too much risk for me in that, but Chevy probably wouldn't bat an eye.

I also wouldn't pay Laine $9M AAV at this point, unless he shows marked improvement in the second half of this season -- very marked improvement. Even then I'd be concerned about a return to Butterfly Laine in future years. I'd be more inclined to bridge him, and if he doesn't improve during that time, trade him.

 

[CaptainChef]

How on a pedestal? His numbers are great and have been from his 1st season in the NHL. AFAIK, he is an adequate puck mover and outstanding defensively. I don't know anything about 'some depth charts'. Whose? & Why? & So what? Look at the RHD on that team.

Just had Rotoworld handy & they have Caro D-depth at Hamilton, Faulk, de Haan, Slavin, Van Riems & then Pesce. Then again they have Morrissey at # 4 on Wpg behind Myers so depth isn't always as it appears.

 

[CaptainChef]

Aren't the Canes looking for goalscoring first and foremost? Hard to imagine Roslovic moving the needle whatsoever.

I'd rather not cheap out, in a way. You're not getting Slavin out of there alive, but Hamilton is a top tier defenseman in this league who could be had. Settling for Pesce means that we have to add another sizable contract, but there is next to nothing to give up that both makes sense and works cap wise (i.e. everybody we have basically makes either ELC money or will be a top tier asset like KC).

Hamilton is good but he definitely appears to have character issues by # of times he's been traded & reasoning for. One of Pesce's main attractions is his salary - $4.025 per till 24-25

 

[BigZ65]

Connor would be tough to deal IMO, especially with the likelihood of having to move Perreault or not being able to keep him beyond next season at the latest.

Connor is our only skilled forward who can also do the dirty work. Deal him and we have a top 6 full of guys who play the perimeter and Little.

 

[CaptainChef]

All of that is certainly better than trading Ehlers/Connor for Stone. Of the two, I'd rather see Connor go before Ehlers, as you seem to also.

I wouldn't pay Stone $9M AAV, especially for the likely 7 or 8 years he's going to get on term. There's too much risk for me in that, but Chevy probably wouldn't bat an eye.

I also wouldn't pay Laine $9M AAV at this point, unless he shows marked improvement in the second half of this season -- very marked improvement. Even then I'd be concerned about a return to Butterfly Laine in future years. I'd be more inclined to bridge him, and if he doesn't improve during that time, trade him.

I'm with you on all, but I'm a fair bit higher on Connor than Ehlers. But, we have Ehlers signed to a very reasonable contract & who knows what Connor will want, so there's that. Maybe I'm wrong, but I see Connor's potential as a goal-scorer to be sky high, and he's a pretty good play-maker & defensively sound as well. Really would hate to give that all up unless return is phenomenal or unless cap dictates we absolutely have to.

 

[Board Bard]

I'm with you on all, but I'm a fair bit higher on Connor than Ehlers. But, we have Ehlers signed to a very reasonable contract & who knows what Connor will want, so there's that. Maybe I'm wrong, but I see Connor's potential as a goal-scorer to be sky high, and he's a pretty good play-maker & defensively sound as well. Really would hate to give that all up unless return is phenomenal or unless cap dictates we absolutely have to.

I think to a large extent Connor's and Ehlers' effectiveness is going to fluctuate according to their time with Scheifele and Wheeler, at least for the next couple of years before Wheeler drops off, or with a suitable replacement teammate who is not yet on the roster. I also think Ehlers drives play better than Connor, both in terms of getting out of the D zone and entering the O zone, not that Connor is a complete slouch at it or anything. In fact Connor's level of ability in all areas will collectively increase his value in a trade, but I don't think it matches what Ehlers does for the team.

 

[Whileee]

I think to a large extent Connor's and Ehlers' effectiveness is going to fluctuate according to their time with Scheifele and Wheeler, at least for the next couple of years before Wheeler drops off, or with a suitable replacement teammate who is not yet on the roster. I also think Ehlers drives play better than Connor, both in terms of getting out of the D zone and entering the O zone, not that Connor is a complete slouch at it or anything. In fact Connor's level of ability in all areas will collectively increase his value in a trade, but I don't think it matches what Ehlers does for the team.

Agree. I think Ehlers is the more dynamic player, and it's reflected in a lot of his metrics. Still, Connor is a blue-chip winger and would have to return a big haul in a trade before contemplating that move.

The only reasonable context is considering moving Laine over to LW, getting Stone either without a trade (via free agency) or for a rental trade cost, and then trading Connor to shore up other areas of need (e.g. on D or at C). If you move Connor in a deal for a D that can fill in for Trouba, then you could perhaps move Trouba for a very good young C prospect. Also, consider that Vesalainen is in the pipeline as a very good LW prospect.

The above scenario is very improbable, but I think it's the way to think about how the Jets might consider parting with Connor and Trouba while retaining their competitiveness in both the short and long terms.

 

[JetsFan815]

All of that is certainly better than trading Ehlers/Connor for Stone. Of the two, I'd rather see Connor go before Ehlers, as you seem to also.

I wouldn't pay Stone $9M AAV, especially for the likely 7 or 8 years he's going to get on term. There's too much risk for me in that, but Chevy probably wouldn't bat an eye.

I also wouldn't pay Laine $9M AAV at this point, unless he shows marked improvement in the second half of this season -- very marked improvement. Even then I'd be concerned about a return to Butterfly Laine in future years. I'd be more inclined to bridge him, and if he doesn't improve during that time, trade him.

I would not entertain bridging Laine, as many gaps there are in his game, he is still an almost guaranteed 40 goal scorer. I would only bridge him if he wants 10 million+. $9M AAV would not be ideal considering his overall play but I am not sure what choice we have. He will almost certainly be more expensive at the end of his bridge.

 

[Huffer]

Just had Rotoworld handy & they have Caro D-depth at Hamilton, Faulk, de Haan, Slavin, Van Riems & then Pesce. Then again they have Morrissey at # 4 on Wpg behind Myers so depth isn't always as it appears.

If that's the order that Rotoworld has their D, then they are morons. Slavin is the undisputed #1.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

With our four top wingers entering the phase in which they are all handsomely paid, we need to consider whether that hinders our ability of addressing other, possibly more important needs such as our defense or the 2C spot. If they're making 30+ million starting next year, I think it just might do that.

We don't really have cap dumps to shed, either. Kulikov and Perreault are locked up, yes, but they need to go just to fit the current core in. If we want to add to that, someone else will have to go.

Exactly. It isn't about deciding that player X or player Y is not living up to expectati0ns. It is about balancing the roster, balancing the cap and possibly getting a big haul in return.

Everybody knows that any and every player is potentially tradeable, but we seem to forget that and get emotionally attached to our players. If a trade looks like a net win you have to consider it, no matter the player(s) involved. And net win is not always obvious. There are a lot of factors to consider.

 

[Whileee]

I would not entertain bridging Laine, as many gaps there are in his game, he is still an almost guaranteed 40 goal scorer. I would only bridge him if he wants 10 million+. $9M AAV would not be ideal considering his overall play but I am not sure what choice we have. He will almost certainly be more expensive at the end of his bridge.

Completely agree. The right move on a 20 year old scoring phenom that hasn't hit his full stride is to sign him long-term while you can keep his cap hit reasonable, rather than waiting until he blossoms into a full-fledged star.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Just had Rotoworld handy & they have Caro D-depth at Hamilton, Faulk, de Haan, Slavin, Van Riems & then Pesce. Then again they have Morrissey at # 4 on Wpg behind Myers so depth isn't always as it appears.

Or it doesn't appear the same to everyone.

TVR isn't even in the conversation. Those others are all stronger offensively and 'Canes have trouble scoring so they are likely to get more TOI. We don't mind scoring, D'uh, but our primary need in replacing Trouba is a shut down D man, top pair, RHS.

If we have that, we are free to trade Trouba for the best value, without worrying about our future RD so much. Or aim to fill our other gaps with his return, LD & C. Having the need to get a top pair, shut down RHS D man is too specific, too limiting.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Frost is not Connor or Ehlers level imo and a first is not a guarantee.

I agree that Frost is not Ehlers/Connor. There is a reason he wasn't drafted as high. But he exploded in D+1 and is keeping it up in D+2 so he has moved up to close to them - and he is a C.

Without bothering to calculate pts% they are in 2nd last place right now. Their 1st will be pretty high. Of course they will protect it but the level of protection is negotiable. Try to limit it to top 3 protection. Settle for top 5 protection. Dig in when they try for top 10. And/or get a bonus if the protection kicks in. Something like getting their 2nd this year plus 1st next year.

Even if we have to settle for a little later pick, I'm pretty confident in the Jets being able to get a very good player anywhere in the top 15, or so.

Alternatively, given where their first looks like landing, take a good prospect instead.

 

[puck stoppa]

I agree that Frost is not Ehlers/Connor. There is a reason he wasn't drafted as high. But he exploded in D+1 and is keeping it up in D+2 so he has moved up to close to them - and he is a C.

Without bothering to calculate pts% they are in 2nd last place right now. Their 1st will be pretty high. Of course they will protect it but the level of protection is negotiable. Try to limit it to top 3 protection. Settle for top 5 protection. Dig in when they try for top 10. And/or get a bonus if the protection kicks in. Something like getting their 2nd this year plus 1st next year.

Even if we have to settle for a little later pick, I'm pretty confident in the Jets being able to get a very good player anywhere in the top 15, or so.

Alternatively, given where their first looks like landing, take a good prospect instead.

I will admit that this is the draft I know the least about compared to all the other years when I had the time to watch more hockey and keep up with draft eligible guys. So I really don't know how deep the draft is. @Daximus, what are your thoughts on this draft?

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I will admit that this is the draft I know the least about compared to all the other years when I had the time to watch more hockey and keep up with draft eligible guys. So I really don't know how deep the draft is. @Daximus, what are your thoughts on this draft?

I'm in the same boat - and at best, I've never been up with those who really get into the draft. I know that last year was an outstanding crop of RHD. IIRC, this year is supposed to be a strong class of C's. But how deep, I have no idea.

 

[Daximus]

I will admit that this is the draft I know the least about compared to all the other years when I had the time to watch more hockey and keep up with draft eligible guys. So I really don't know how deep the draft is. @Daximus, what are your thoughts on this draft?

Top 5 or so is pretty set in stone. Then there is a mix of a wide range of boom types in the 7-20ish range, some more safe than others. Back half of the first is not much different then the next first half of the 2nd. Lots of mid-range prospects like usual. A top 5 pick in this draft would be a beauty pick but there will be some very good fallers likely in the 10-20ish range that could be huge value picks. Guys like Krebs, Turcotte, Suzuki and Newhook are getting a little underrated over the more boom/bust types like Broberg, Kaliyev, Caufield, Seider and Pelletier. Byram would be a massive add for us as I see him being a Morrissey clone. But we'd likely need a top 10 pick to ensure getting close to him.
Right now Philly is looking at another top 6 or so guaranteed pick. Which likely mean they aren't moving for anything short of a big haul.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Agree. I think Ehlers is the more dynamic player, and it's reflected in a lot of his metrics. Still, Connor is a blue-chip winger and would have to return a big haul in a trade before contemplating that move.

The only reasonable context is considering moving Laine over to LW, getting Stone either without a trade (via free agency) or for a rental trade cost, and then trading Connor to shore up other areas of need (e.g. on D or at C). If you move Connor in a deal for a D that can fill in for Trouba, then you could perhaps move Trouba for a very good young C prospect. Also, consider that Vesalainen is in the pipeline as a very good LW prospect.

The above scenario is very improbable, but I think it's the way to think about how the Jets might consider parting with Connor and Trouba while retaining their competitiveness in both the short and long terms.

In your scenario we part with Trouba, Connor, our '19 1st and some lesser pieces. That is a lot. Trouba is the old man of the group at (soon to be) 25.

I think the point is to be willing to make a number of moves involving high end players, prospects and picks strategically aimed at strengthening the roster in both near and longer term. At the same time, managing the cap.

 

[Whileee]

In your scenario we part with Trouba, Connor, our '19 1st and some lesser pieces. That is a lot. Trouba is the old man of the group at (soon to be) 25.

I think the point is to be willing to make a number of moves involving high end players, prospects and picks strategically aimed at strengthening the roster in both near and longer term. At the same time, managing the cap.

That was included the rental price for Stone.

The big idea is the Jets finding a way to sign Stone as a UFA. It's a plausible enough scenario, but would require the Jets to rejig their cap structure.

They would almost certainly have to move Connor for an ELC player and/or futures (i.e. prospect / pick). They couldn't afford Connor and Stone on long term deals. So, you could trade Connor for assets and acquire Stone as a UFA.

Now you have to think about Trouba. If he is willing to sign with the Jets for 7.5m or less, and you could get Stone for just over 8m, you might be able to fit them both under an 83m cap, if you let go of Myers, Kulikov, Perreault, Copp and Tanev, replacing them with cheap replacements. But you would start running into problems when you need to re-sign Morrissey, Roslovic and others. If Trouba won't re-sign, then you could use a Connor trade to acquire a cheaper top 4 D, and trade Trouba to restock the pipeline with talented forward prospects.

 

[pucka lucka]

I think to a large extent Connor's and Ehlers' effectiveness is going to fluctuate according to their time with Scheifele and Wheeler, at least for the next couple of years before Wheeler drops off, or with a suitable replacement teammate who is not yet on the roster. I also think Ehlers drives play better than Connor, both in terms of getting out of the D zone and entering the O zone, not that Connor is a complete slouch at it or anything. In fact Connor's level of ability in all areas will collectively increase his value in a trade, but I don't think it matches what Ehlers does for the team.

Connor has far less controlled zone entries by my eye. Ehlers has to be near the top of the league.

 

[Board Bard]

Connor has far less controlled zone entries by my eye. Ehlers has to be near the top of the league.

He always has been according the charts and graphs that have circulated through here. Up there in the rarified air of Mount McDavid, though not quite as high.

 

[JetsFan815]

Connor has far less controlled zone entries by my eye. Ehlers has to be near the top of the league.

He always has been according the charts and graphs that have circulated through here. Up there in the rarified air of Mount McDavid, though not quite as high.

I think Ehlers is the superior player of the two... Connor has the shot on Ehlers and can handle himself better along the boards in the offensive zone... but other than that I see advantage Ehlers across the board.

Connor will always be a good cog on a good line and will get his points and goals but Ehlers has the tools to carry a line at some point in the future. He is also elite at drawing penalties which is probably worth 4-6 goals over a season.

He's also signed to a very nice contract and overall seems to be a low maintenance player. If it ever came down that we had to part with one of these players I would sure as heck hope we keep Ehlers. Connor probably has more value in a trade anyways due to his shooting.

 

[KingBogo]

That was included the rental price for Stone.

The big idea is the Jets finding a way to sign Stone as a UFA. It's a plausible enough scenario, but would require the Jets to rejig their cap structure.

They would almost certainly have to move Connor for an ELC player and/or futures (i.e. prospect / pick). They couldn't afford Connor and Stone on long term deals. So, you could trade Connor for assets and acquire Stone as a UFA.

Now you have to think about Trouba. If he is willing to sign with the Jets for 7.5m or less, and you could get Stone for just over 8m, you might be able to fit them both under an 83m cap, if you let go of Myers, Kulikov, Perreault, Copp and Tanev, replacing them with cheap replacements. But you would start running into problems when you need to re-sign Morrissey, Roslovic and others. If Trouba won't re-sign, then you could use a Connor trade to acquire a cheaper top 4 D, and trade Trouba to restock the pipeline with talented forward prospects.

It looks like you had fun with Stone to the Jets today Whileee, but the part you left out was Chevy being replaced by a 1970's cigar chomping GM that will turn over half his roster with one of his buddies because they were bored. I looked back and saw this discussion started with Joe floating a rumour he heard. In the 1% chance the Jets obtain Stone it will be a one playoff run rental for a steep price and then he will be gone on the open market to the team desperate enough to pay him $10-11 M. IMO the right move would be to keep the young core together and for Chevy to use Connor's RFA status to grind out a decent deal at maybe 60% of what Stone will cost.

 

[Whileee]

Connor has far less controlled zone entries by my eye. Ehlers has to be near the top of the league.

Ehlers' other big contribution with Scheifele and Wheeler has been his zone exits. He's really good at that.

 

[Joe Hallenback]

More rumor mongering, Stone would be open to a friendly long term deal with the Jets