First let me say that the post you quoted was in the context of NHL revenues and how they relate to future caps. I am responding to you because there has been frequent talk over the years about tough financial times leading to future drops in NHL revenues. It just never happens even when things get really bad.
As for a current recession, one needs to separate what is happening broadly in the economy from how it feels to an individual. These can be very different. No doubt many people are feeling a real bite from inflation. I am happy to take your word for how this is impacting you, your family and those in your area, especially given the devastation of the wild fires. But your post also brings into play a phenomenon related to inflation that makes it so insidious. Almost everyone feels worse off in times of significant inflation even if for many, or even the majority, they actually are not.
The definition of a recession is a significant, pervasive, and persistent decline in economic activity. . Given your post I thought I would do a little digging to see what the broader situation has been like in Hawaii. Of course the fires in Maui create a unique situation locally. Hawaii also has rather specific issues that do not hold broadly across all of the US mainland. But even so there are still aspects of the Hawaiian economy that are not consistent with a recession. For example, unemployment in Hawaii had been dropping consistently since the pandemic hit. It was at 2.8% at the end of July which is the lowest level since March 2020.
In depth view into Hawaii Unemployment Rate including historical data from 1976 to 2024, charts and stats.
ycharts.com
Prior to the fires there was actually fairly robust economic growth in the broad Hawaiian economy. Hawaii's inflation rate was dropping as well. It was down to 3.1% in 2023 so far. The estimate for real GDP growth (growth above inflation) for 2023 is 1.1% and while it has been downgraded due to the fires, the forecast for 2024 is 1.5%.
3rd Quarter 2024 Report Download Data Table (spreadsheet) Hawaii’s economy continues to recover from the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic and the August 2023 Maui wildfires. As of the first quarter of 2024, the latest quarter Federal economic data are available, Hawaii’s economy recovered 98...
dbedt.hawaii.gov
Now I am not writing this to say that what you are feeling is wrong. The numbers above are global while every individual assess the situation based on their own circumstance.
Again, I am not dismissing your comments, but there is little evidence right now that the economy is headed anywhere close to a place that would see a material decline in NHL revenues. In fact, at least modest growth is much more likely.
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