Rumor: Rumors & Proposals Thread | Lavoie Vs. Pederson Vs. Sutter Vs. Gagner Vs. Caggiula

[belair]

*3 million cap hit for next year sold separately

Show me who else is signing for <$800k who plays 16+ minutes a night of impactful hockey.

I'll wait.

 

[Drivesaitl]

Like Fourier said, it's the escrow that's affecting the cap and not revenue.

The simplest way to put it is revenue is split 50/50 between players and owners. Escrow is a tax on player's salary that's used to maintain that 50/50 split. Since teams made way less than they were paying players during the pandemic, the 50/50 split was way off and the players owed the owners a big chunk of money. That debt has been getting paid off over the past few years and it's about to be paid off. When that happens, everything goes back to normal and the cap will rise like usual.

Thanks for explaining it this way. I'm a dunce when it comes to CBA or NHL finances and usually stay away from the cap discussions.

I wouldn't know the difference between Escrow and Escargo. But you knew that, heh, good call!

 

[Drivesaitl]

You must've missed the part where I said that neither of these players is overly valuable when they start to earn more money against your team's cap. The Oilers filled that role with Connor Brown making league minimum this season.

Kostin was a success as an Edmonton Oiler. Just like Maroon, Kassian and Chiasson were in their first seasons here. Doubling down on that success is where things have gone wrong in the past.

Yeah what a disaster Maroon turned out being wining all those SC's. Turns out you need some players like that in the lineup.

Hockey has always required meat and potato players with hunger that will go to the wall and fight to get there. Kostin has that kind of fire. At least you compared him to comparable players.

I don't put Chiasson in that camp. he's about as scary as a scarecrow.

 

[TheNumber4]

You must've missed the part where I said that neither of these players is overly valuable when they start to earn more money against your team's cap. The Oilers filled that role with Connor Brown making league minimum this season.

Kostin was a success as an Edmonton Oiler. Just like Maroon, Kassian and Chiasson were in their first seasons here. Doubling down on that success is where things have gone wrong in the past.

Players earning more against the Cap is fine. It’s an issue if the Cap hit doesn’t match the value that player represents.

Doubling down on successes may or may not work out. Depends on the player. In the case of Maroon we should have doubled down. In the case of Kassian, no and it hurt us. In the case of Chiasson, no but it didn’t hurt us that much.

I think Kostin will be closer to Maroon than Kassian after extension. Guess we’ll find out in Detroit.

 

[belair]

Yeah what a disaster Maroon turned out being wining all those SC's. Turns out you need some players like that in the lineup.

Hockey has always required meat and potato players with hunger that will go to the wall and fight to get there. Kostin has that kind of fire. At least you compared him to comparable players.

I don't put Chiasson in that camp. he's about as scary as a scarecrow.

How much did he make in STL? In TB?

Because the rumor around here is that he was looking for something north of $3.5m after his 27 goal season.

I see you're in a meat and potatoes phase.

 

[Drivesaitl]

How much did he make in STL? In TB?

Because the rumor around here is that he was looking for something north of $3.5m after his 27 goal season.

I see you're in a meat and potatoes phase.

I'm still reading the Eddie Shack bio. hehe.

I'm old school, but hockey, especially playoffs, you need some uber physical guys in the lineup that can play and contribute. Playoff hockey is not the time of saints.

Trouble with the Oilers lineup is only Kane now is scary. Desharnais is more a liability. Teams wouldn't want to take matching fighting penalties with him, they'd want him on the ice. Nurse is too valuable to fight...wait.., no, his contract is. Kane might not even be keen on fighting or mixing it up now and maybe shouldn't be. One doesn't know how he's limited with wrist injury.

The Oilers are much older now, thats been creeping up there but we're really with all our player additions going to an old club. We need some pace players in there, and even our pace players and bottomsix players are mostly old as the hills. It doesn't seem to me like the right mix.

 

[Kanedogg]

Yikes to think babcock name was thrown around to replace tippett, because of the Nicholson/Holland connection.

 

[TheNumber4]

Former 1st rounder, 9th overall pick, still young at 23 signs for 500K in the KHL.

Younger than Kostin. Higher draft pick. Better KHL production than Kostin.

And we’re supposed to believe Kostin had an offer for 2M from the KHL? I see this shit and can’t help but think that Kostin and his agent played Holland like a fiddle.

 

[Navx94]

Former 1st rounder, 9th overall pick, still young at 23 signs for 500K in the KHL.

Younger than Kostin. Higher draft pick. Better KHL production than Kostin.

And we’re supposed to believe Kostin had an offer for 2M from the KHL? I see this shit and can’t help but think that Kostin and his agent played Holland like a fiddle.

Holland didn’t pay kostin 2M though? So I don’t see how he got played.

 

[TopShelfGloveSide]

Former 1st rounder, 9th overall pick, still young at 23 signs for 500K in the KHL.

Younger than Kostin. Higher draft pick. Better KHL production than Kostin.

And we’re supposed to believe Kostin had an offer for 2M from the KHL? I see this shit and can’t help but think that Kostin and his agent played Holland like a fiddle.

 

[FanOfSadTeam]

Can't believe Holland didn't draft Bedard. f***ing moron.

 

[Bryanbryoil]

Wages most definitely are budging. In fact wage inflation is the primary reason why there is concern that inflation will not drop to the BOC or the Fed's target. Right now wage inflation in the US is almost 2% higher than the overall inflation rate.

Wage growth vs inflation U.S. 2024 | Statista

The rate of inflation overtook the growth of wages in April 2021. High rates of inflation means that consumers are seeing a decrease in purchasing power

www.statista.com

Particularly in the US, where most of the teams are, disposable income has actually gone up significantly since 2019.

United States Disposable Personal Income

Disposable Personal Income in the United States increased to 21855.80 USD Billion in September from 21798.30 USD Billion in August of 2024. This page provides - United States Disposable Personal Income - actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news.

tradingeconomics.com

There the consumer is less impacted by rising house payments for example because of their 30 year mortgages. In Canada, mortgage costs are a much bigger drag on future disposable income. BUt as of now disposable income has also risen here quite a bit.

Canada Disposable Personal Income

Disposable Personal Income in Canada increased to 1634892 CAD Million in the fourth quarter of 2023 from 1614088 CAD Million in the third quarter of 2023. This page provides - Canada Disposable Personal Income - actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news.

tradingeconomics.com

Inflation tends to hit people on the low end of the income spectrum much more than it does higher income earners. The people hit the hardest are not the ones buying season tickets to the NHL. Significant job losses and reductions in corporate earnings are more of a danger. But so far there has not been a recession and it is very possible that it does not happen or if it does it would be mild.

All that said, as I pointed out the only time since the cap was in place that revenues dropped year to year was the first year of the pandemic. Even during the global financial crisis the NHL managed to very modestly increase revenues. No one is predicting a recession on that scale.

Speaking from my own experience there is a very real chance of recession in the US and IMO to a degree it's already here. Interest rates for borrowing are very high, lots of unions striking due to massive inflation which in turn creates more inflation, etc. There is a very real crunch on all but the wealthiest people here and this was before the fire here, that will make things much harder albeit in my neck of the woods and not the US mainland.

 

[McSuper]

If Kostin finds the game he was trending to find here but in Detroit and becomes a legit Top 6 Winger, I wonder what the narrative from the naysayers will be then?

Will you guys give him credit? Or will you just say stuff like he was never going to do that here, greedy Russian never wanted to be here anyways, or only Detroit could have unlocked his potential etc etc. I can see it now from the Holland-Can-Do-No-Wrong crowd.

I have never seen 1 fans say that. I see lots of fans bashing every move he makes tho. The Oilers have been a playoff team every year he been here and yet he gets bashed for every move.
No credit for
Hyman
Kane
Ekholm
Janmark
Ceci
Kulak
Getting rid of Lucic

Campbell has looked like his worst move and if he can rebound this year it may not be as bad as it looks so far.

Funny part all the fans crying about Kostin cried when Holland traded for him.

 

[McSuper]

Brown is a player that didn't even play all of last season due to serious injury. We don't even know what we have. I sure don't consider him some kind of bigtime addition. the guy has lol 90 career goals through a long career.

A guy with a career high of 20 goals is our sure shot great topsix player? lol

Talking about LOL. Goals are your only measuring stick? Brown is a very good 2 way player. Having him improves the Oilers defensively. There a reason other teams were offering him more money and term.

 

[FlameChampion]

Former 1st rounder, 9th overall pick, still young at 23 signs for 500K in the KHL.

Younger than Kostin. Higher draft pick. Better KHL production than Kostin.

And we’re supposed to believe Kostin had an offer for 2M from the KHL? I see this shit and can’t help but think that Kostin and his agent played Holland like a fiddle.

One thing with Holland is that I don’t think he has tolerance for players who don’t want to be here. I think Holland has a pretty good reputation with agents. I think Kostin’s agent using KHL as leverage just rubbed Holland the wrong way. He’s willing to negotiate and pay (too much in most cases) guys but they have to be willing to play ball. Kostin would probably be here if he was willing to stay for 1.5. Holland wasn’t willing to go over 2. You can’t blame Kostin to finally want to cash in and you can’t really blame Holland for walking away from a price he wasn’t comfortable with. Time will tell on how Kostins season goes.

 

[Sanchez]

Seems weird that after duul was banned, someone has taken his place so quickly.

Wait duul was banned?

 

[Fourier]

Speaking from my own experience there is a very real chance of recession in the US and IMO to a degree it's already here. Interest rates for borrowing are very high, lots of unions striking due to massive inflation which in turn creates more inflation, etc. There is a very real crunch on all but the wealthiest people here and this was before the fire here, that will make things much harder albeit in my neck of the woods and not the US mainland.

First let me say that the post you quoted was in the context of NHL revenues and how they relate to future caps. I am responding to you because there has been frequent talk over the years about tough financial times leading to future drops in NHL revenues. It just never happens even when things get really bad.

As for a current recession, one needs to separate what is happening broadly in the economy from how it feels to an individual. These can be very different. No doubt many people are feeling a real bite from inflation. I am happy to take your word for how this is impacting you, your family and those in your area, especially given the devastation of the wild fires. But your post also brings into play a phenomenon related to inflation that makes it so insidious. Almost everyone feels worse off in times of significant inflation even if for many, or even the majority, they actually are not.

The definition of a recession is a significant, pervasive, and persistent decline in economic activity. . Given your post I thought I would do a little digging to see what the broader situation has been like in Hawaii. Of course the fires in Maui create a unique situation locally. Hawaii also has rather specific issues that do not hold broadly across all of the US mainland. But even so there are still aspects of the Hawaiian economy that are not consistent with a recession. For example, unemployment in Hawaii had been dropping consistently since the pandemic hit. It was at 2.8% at the end of July which is the lowest level since March 2020.

Hawaii Unemployment Rate Monthly Trends: Regional and State Employment and Unemployment | YCharts

In depth view into Hawaii Unemployment Rate including historical data from 1976 to 2024, charts and stats.

ycharts.com

Prior to the fires there was actually fairly robust economic growth in the broad Hawaiian economy. Hawaii's inflation rate was dropping as well. It was down to 3.1% in 2023 so far. The estimate for real GDP growth (growth above inflation) for 2023 is 1.1% and while it has been downgraded due to the fires, the forecast for 2024 is 1.5%.

Outlook for the Economy

3rd Quarter 2024 Report Download Data Table (spreadsheet) Hawaii’s economy continues to recover from the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic and the August 2023 Maui wildfires. As of the first quarter of 2024, the latest quarter Federal economic data are available, Hawaii’s economy recovered 98...

dbedt.hawaii.gov

Now I am not writing this to say that what you are feeling is wrong. The numbers above are global while every individual assess the situation based on their own circumstance.

Again, I am not dismissing your comments, but there is little evidence right now that the economy is headed anywhere close to a place that would see a material decline in NHL revenues. In fact, at least modest growth is much more likely.

.

 

[Soundwave]

Show me who else is signing for <$800k who plays 16+ minutes a night of impactful hockey.

I'll wait.

Why don't you guys just actually call it what it is. It's a 4 million salary, that's in the form of a 3+ million cap penalty next season.

For a guy who basically didn't play last year and has never been a star player.

In his last season he actually mostly played he scored 10 goals in 64 games. Which an 82 game pace of 13 goals.

So we paid a guy coming off basically a 13 goal season 4 million dollars.

For a 3+ million cap penalty on next year's cap he better play a major, major role in the playoffs in getting the team to a Conference or Cup Finals, anything less than that is a major failure, because you incurred a huge cap penalty in that case for no good reason.

Not having a Connor Brown is not the reason we lost to Vegas. We lost to Vegas because our D bombed another series against a good opponent and their goaltending completely dominated our horrendous goaltending (.930+ vs .883).

 

[McTonyBrar]

Brown is a player that didn't even play all of last season due to serious injury. We don't even know what we have. I sure don't consider him some kind of bigtime addition. the guy has lol 90 career goals through a long career.

A guy with a career high of 20 goals is our sure shot great topsix player? lol

A guy who's scored 20 goals more than once. You haven't even seen him play so don't make any judgements Drive. Your bias is ridiculous at times.

It's pretty evident you're going to hate him this season because of his size lmao because apparently size is the most important

 

[Paralyzer]

Wait duul was banned?

News to me too. Sad. I missed his posts. He's been soo quiet lately....oh wait...forgot the ignore button was still on.

Why are we still fixated on Kostin. We let bjugstad walk for basically the same money and he is much more valuable to the team.

Yams at 1.5 is better value too.

A touch concerning if you are aiming to push into top six like some of you think that you aren’t getting power play and in the bottom six doesn’t kill penalties.

We have an internal replacement for cheaper.

This is the same board that still thinks Glencross would have been an improvement on this team today still. People can't let things like this die.

 

[bucks_oil]

Yeah what a disaster Maroon turned out being wining all those SC's. Turns out you need some players like that in the lineup.

Hockey has always required meat and potato players with hunger that will go to the wall and fight to get there. Kostin has that kind of fire. At least you compared him to comparable players.

I don't put Chiasson in that camp. he's about as scary as a scarecrow.

The way I look at it:
1) From a practical perspective, there was no way we could keep Maroon at his demands. Players come here, they have hunger, they perform and then they want to get paid. No shame in that on either side, the practical reality is that we were filling out our roster with "impact" players like Nygard and Haas at ~league minimum just to ice a team and get out from under Chia's cap mess. It's tough to build when you have to let go of your successes every off season, but that was our reality.

2) Kostin is in a similar vein... he's a big strong, hungry kid who wanted to get paid. Maybe he continues to progress from here, or maybe last season was his ticket to a meal and he gets comfy... he's clearly had inconsistency issues in the past... and we clearly weren't in a position to keep him. Brown is going to be better (and cheaper THIS YEAR) at RW in our middle six than either of Kostin or Yamamoto, that much isn't really all that debatable or controversial. And that's what we need - to be better every year.

3) Getting rid of a hungry, physical player who wanted to get paid does not preclude us from auditioning another one. This time last year, nobody on this board knew who Kostin was and were hoping Samoroukov would finally push for a spot. Things can change quickly. Who knows, maybe this year's Kostin is Adam Erne, or maybe this is the year that Holloway is healthy and makes the jump as a do-it-all tough to play against middle sixer. This is why we play the games.

4) Would I rather have Kostin at $2.1M vs Foegele at $2.75M? Yes, I would... but from what we've read, McDrai preferred the latter.

5) and just to add the other option: Would I rather have kept Kostin at $2.1M, played with one fewer guy on the roster due to cap, or do I rather have Brown at $850K this year and room for one more guy like Lavoie? The answer should be pretty obvious it's the latter... and the former was NOT an option. You can't run a 20 person roster and Kostin's extra $1M made him untenable, period.... that's just how it is.

 

[bucks_oil]

Holland didn’t pay kostin 2M though? So I don’t see how he got played.

Exactly!

@TheNumber4 ... so how did Holland get played? He traded Kostin and freed cap in the process... it was Yzerman that agreed to Kostin's (as per your Kravtsov example) unreasonably high demands.

 

[YakDavid]

You must've missed the part where I said that neither of these players is overly valuable when they start to earn more money against your team's cap. The Oilers filled that role with Connor Brown making league minimum this season.

Kostin was a success as an Edmonton Oiler. Just like Maroon, Kassian and Chiasson were in their first seasons here. Doubling down on that success is where things have gone wrong in the past.

Chiasson and Maroon are good shouts as comparison.

Lack of top six time and power play time is interesting with Kostin. You would think if his offence was there he would get an extended run but it has yet to happen.

 

[Arpeggio]

I'm sticking by my theory that Kostin never intended to sign here. He and his agent valued playing time and top-6 opportunity more than a chance of winning here as a role player. Even if everything went right for him, he would get zero PP time and if he did get a top-six role, he'd be seen as a product of McDavid/Draisaitl.

If Kostin is legit, his next contract will be substantially bigger after playing on a team like Detroit for the next two season vs playing for Edmonton.

 

[FlameChampion]

I'm sticking by my theory that Kostin never intended to sign here. He and his agent valued playing time and top-6 opportunity more than a chance of winning here as a role player. Even if everything went right for him, he would get zero PP time and if he did get a top-six role, he'd be seen as a product of McDavid/Draisaitl.

If Kostin is legit, his next contract will be substantially bigger after playing on a team like Detroit for the next two season vs playing for Edmonton.

I dont think you're wrong. I think his objective was to make money. And for a guy that hasnt made much in his career, you cant blame him (he might never get another NHL contract again). But I dont think Holland appreciated, the KHL being brought into it.

I dont think Kostin is going to be getting much top 6 time though. I guess theres a chance with injuries or if he really kills it (same if he was with Oilers really). He might get some PP2 time which he wouldnt of got with the Oilers (PP2 doesnt get much time).