Rumor: Rumors & Proposals Thread | Lavoie Vs. Pederson Vs. Sutter Vs. Gagner Vs. Caggiula

[McDNicks17]

He wasn't. People have an issue with the last few years of the deal but by the last year of the deal we could easily be looking at a cap of $105-110M. The deal is also stuctured to be movable in the last two years. First the deal changes from a NMC to a M-NTC. After the bonus is paid in the second last year of the deal he would be owed about $6M in real money. At that point in terms of real dollars he would be being paid like a low end third liner. He would be 34 at that point with relatively low milage on his body. It's hard to see why he would not still be playing at a level that would make that a bargain. So if the Oilers needed to move him they most likely could do so fairly easily.

Yup. Not worried about that contract at all. With a $105-110M cap, he'd be making ~5% of the cap which is top-end third line money.

Somehow people seem to forget that the cap rises when it comes to these long term deals.

 

[Senor Catface]

Seems weird that after duul was banned, someone has taken his place so quickly.

 

[Fourier]

With all fairness you've been speaking of the cap going up appreciably for years. Just spitballing from memory over the last 5yrs the cap hasn't gone up as much as would have been thought.

Is it not a concern in collapsed economies, in drastically increased cost of living that sporting revenues are going to hit a potential wall, if not a collapse? The average person can't afford tickets right now. Theres a limited amount of people that can and the Oilers tickets are again becoming much easier to get (if one wants to pay the price) and this with McDrai AND a new arena.

Demand is likely going down at least as far as gate is concerned. If a team with McDrai isn't selling out games in a hockey mad market in a new arena few will..

The cap did not go up because of the pandemic. The new CBA gave the players a big break in terms of deferred escrow. The rules on how it would rise prior to the escrow debt being paid off are clear. As of today the escrow debt is in the $20-40M. That will be paid off fully in the first few weeks of the season. Had it been fully paid off the cap for this year would have been $87.5M. That said revenues right now are in the $5.7-5.8B range at the level the natural cap would be about $102-105M.

We always here that "things are getting bad so revenues will drop". The reality is that the only time since the cap came into play that revenues have dropped was the first year of the pandemic. They rose slightly during the financial crisis which outside of the pnademic was the worst shock we have seen in my lifetime. Moreover, that period was deflationary. We are in an inflationary period right now which tends to drive up revenue rather than kill it. The only question now is how quickly the league/NHLPA agree to normalize it. So even with flat revenue my post gives the system 4 years to normalize.

 

[Drivesaitl]

The cap did not go up because of the pandemic. The new CBA gave the players a big break in terms of deferred escrow. The rules on how it would rise prior to the escrow debt being paid off are clear. As of today the escrow debt is in the $20-40M. Had it been fully paid off the cap for this year would have been $87.5M. That said revenues right now are in the $5.7-5.8M range at the level the natural cap would be about $102-105M.

We always here that "things are getting bad so revenues will drop". The reality is that the only time since the cap came into play that revenues have dropped was the first year of the pandemic. They rose slightly during the financial crisis which outside of the pnademic was the worst shock we have seen in my lifetime. Moreover, that period was deflationary. We are in an inflationary period right now which tends to drive up revenue rather than kill it. The only question now is how quickly the league/NHLPA agree to normalize it. So even with flat revenue my post gives the system 4 years to normalize.

I kept hearing the cap was going to go up significantly for last season and it only went up 1M.

Right now we're in an inflationary spiral where wages are not budging up one iota. This is far different from past inflationary periods and for instance the 70's where peoples earnings were small goldmines relative to cost of living. The current calamity is middle class dying, good jobs dying, and discretionary income dying. Top entertainment and sports is increasingly for one percenters now. Hey maybe a select few continue to pay what they don't have. But as average personal debt load skyrockets I see endgame is in sight.

COMMENTARY: The danger of the fading middle-class dream - National | Globalnews.ca

For too many Canadians who followed the rules and got life right, the middle-class dream is dying, Darrell Bricker and Mike Colledge write. How did it all go so wrong?

globalnews.ca

biggest drop in standard of living since 1950's

People face biggest drop in living standards since 1956

Wages will lag soaring prices meaning the biggest drop in standards since 1956, says the OBR.

www.bbc.com

yeah its not just the pandemic

 

[McDNicks17]

I kept hearing the cap was going to go up significantly for last season and it only went up 1M.

Right now we're in an inflationary spiral where wages are not budging up one iota. This is far different from past inflationary periods and for instance the 70's where peoples earnings were small goldmines relative to cost of living. The current calamity is middle class dying, good jobs dying, and discretionary income dying. Top entertainment and sports is increasingly for one percenters now. Hey maybe a select few continue to pay what they don't have. But as average personal debt load skyrockets I see endgame is in sight.

COMMENTARY: The danger of the fading middle-class dream - National | Globalnews.ca

For too many Canadians who followed the rules and got life right, the middle-class dream is dying, Darrell Bricker and Mike Colledge write. How did it all go so wrong?

globalnews.ca

biggest drop in standard of living since 1950's

People face biggest drop in living standards since 1956

Wages will lag soaring prices meaning the biggest drop in standards since 1956, says the OBR.

www.bbc.com

yeah its not just the pandemic

You can just admit you don't understand the escrow situation. It's alright.

 

[Drivesaitl]

You can just admit you don't understand the escrow situation. It's alright.

I'll admit it. I don't.

My eyes bleed trying to read that stuff.

I use software now to do income tax. Even that makes my head spin. heh

 

[Anarchism]

The cap did not go up because of the pandemic. The new CBA gave the players a big break in terms of deferred escrow. The rules on how it would rise prior to the escrow debt being paid off are clear. As of today the escrow debt is in the $20-40M. That will be paid off fully in the first few weeks of the season. Had it been fully paid off the cap for this year would have been $87.5M. That said revenues right now are in the $5.7-5.8M range at the level the natural cap would be about $102-105M.

We always here that "things are getting bad so revenues will drop". The reality is that the only time since the cap came into play that revenues have dropped was the first year of the pandemic. They rose slightly during the financial crisis which outside of the pnademic was the worst shock we have seen in my lifetime. Moreover, that period was d eflationary. We are in an inflationary period right now which tends to drive up revenue rather than kill it. The only question now is how quickly the league/NHLPA agree to normalize it. So even with flat revenue my post gives the system 4 years to normalize.

is this accurate. First its about 5.7 bil not mil. second is there not always some subtracted for special expense before the division aprox. 120 mil this year maybe.

5.58 billion/2= X / 32 = 87.1 mil ???

Even not allowing for non special expense tax wouldn't the max number be about 88.5 mil. This is of course after repayment of the deferred.

 

[mkatcherin00]

Babcock has resigned

 

[McDNicks17]

I'll admit it. I don't.

My eyes bleed trying to read that stuff.

Like Fourier said, it's the escrow that's affecting the cap and not revenue.

The simplest way to put it is revenue is split 50/50 between players and owners. Escrow is a tax on player's salary that's used to maintain that 50/50 split. Since teams made way less than they were paying players during the pandemic, the 50/50 split was way off and the players owed the owners a big chunk of money. That debt has been getting paid off over the past few years and it's about to be paid off. When that happens, everything goes back to normal and the cap will rise like usual.

 

[Anarchism]

Babcock has resigned

What a mess for Columbus. Trying to get ready for the season.
Hard ass coaches of the 70's 80's 90's are gone. Dinosaurs today.
Now its players coaches listening to their 100 mil dollar players.
At least in part the animals are running the circus.

 

[AddyTheWrath]

Remember when certain posters here wanted Babcock hired after Tippett was let go?

Pepperidge Farm remembers.

 

[bellagiobob]

What a mess for Columbus. Trying to get ready for the season.

No sympathy for them. Just a terrible decision to hire him.

 

[Fourier]

is this accurate. First its about 5.7 bil not mil. second is there not always some subtracted for special expense before the division aprox. 120 mil this year maybe.

5.58 billion/2= X / 32 = 87.1 mil ???

Even not allowing for non special expense tax wouldn't the max number be about 88.5 mil. This is of course after repayment of the deferred.

I used $5.75B as the revenue level. The initial preliminary report was a bit over $5.7 but then there was evidence that it rose to closer to $5.75B. which would take the before ancillaries which would take revenue shared by the players to about $5.65M. (Thanks for pointing out the typo by the way. I have corrected it.) What you are calculating is actually the midpoint of the cap. The ceiling is 15% higher.

Even at your number it would put the ceiling at $100M. Bottom line though is that this is the current level. Add even a 2.% increase for 4 years which, would be historically very low, in 4 years you would be at about $108M even with your numbers.

 

[Jimmi McJenkins]

Again, good on JJ

 

[bellagiobob]

 

[McTonyBrar]

Babcock has resigned

Too many dick pics man. Guy needs to relax

 

[Anarchism]

I used $5.75B as the revenue level. The initial preliminary report was a bit over $5.7 but then there was evidence that it rose to closer to $5.75B. which would take the before ancillaries which would take revenue shared by the players to about $5.65M. (Thanks for pointing out the typo by the way. I have corrected it.) What you are calculating is actually the midpoint of the cap. The ceiling is 15% higher.

Even at your number it would put the ceiling at $100M. Bottom line though is that this is the current level. Add even a 2.% increase for 4 years which, would be historically very low, in 4 years you would be at about $108M even with your numbers.

Okay ....guess i really dont get it either lol
Friggin Accountants lol

Too many dick pics man. Guy needs to relax

Some school somewhere will hire him.....but it might be a while.

Who steps up for Columbus Pascal or Steve?

 

[Lay Z Boy GM]

Too many dick pics man. Guy needs to relax

He’s just old school, back in his day a team penis inspection was totally normal

 

[Fourier]

I kept hearing the cap was going to go up significantly for last season and it only went up 1M.

Right now we're in an inflationary spiral where wages are not budging up one iota. This is far different from past inflationary periods and for instance the 70's where peoples earnings were small goldmines relative to cost of living. The current calamity is middle class dying, good jobs dying, and discretionary income dying. Top entertainment and sports is increasingly for one percenters now. Hey maybe a select few continue to pay what they don't have. But as average personal debt load skyrockets I see endgame is in sight.

COMMENTARY: The danger of the fading middle-class dream - National | Globalnews.ca

For too many Canadians who followed the rules and got life right, the middle-class dream is dying, Darrell Bricker and Mike Colledge write. How did it all go so wrong?

globalnews.ca

biggest drop in standard of living since 1950's

People face biggest drop in living standards since 1956

Wages will lag soaring prices meaning the biggest drop in standards since 1956, says the OBR.

www.bbc.com

yeah its not just the pandemic

Wages most definitely are budging. In fact wage inflation is the primary reason why there is concern that inflation will not drop to the BOC or the Fed's target. Right now wage inflation in the US is almost 2% higher than the overall inflation rate.

Wage growth vs inflation U.S. 2024 | Statista

The rate of inflation overtook the growth of wages in April 2021. High rates of inflation means that consumers are seeing a decrease in purchasing power

www.statista.com

Particularly in the US, where most of the teams are, disposable income has actually gone up significantly since 2019.

United States Disposable Personal Income

Disposable Personal Income in the United States increased to 21782.20 USD Billion in August from 21748 USD Billion in July of 2024. This page provides - United States Disposable Personal Income - actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news.

tradingeconomics.com

There the consumer is less impacted by rising house payments for example because of their 30 year mortgages. In Canada, mortgage costs are a much bigger drag on future disposable income. BUt as of now disposable income has also risen here quite a bit.

Canada Disposable Personal Income

Disposable Personal Income in Canada increased to 1634892 CAD Million in the fourth quarter of 2023 from 1614088 CAD Million in the third quarter of 2023. This page provides - Canada Disposable Personal Income - actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news.

tradingeconomics.com

Inflation tends to hit people on the low end of the income spectrum much more than it does higher income earners. The people hit the hardest are not the ones buying season tickets to the NHL. Significant job losses and reductions in corporate earnings are more of a danger. But so far there has not been a recession and it is very possible that it does not happen or if it does it would be mild.

All that said, as I pointed out the only time since the cap was in place that revenues dropped year to year was the first year of the pandemic. Even during the global financial crisis the NHL managed to very modestly increase revenues. No one is predicting a recession on that scale.

 

[Mr Kot]

Babcock has resigned

 

[VainGretzky]

Seems weird that after duul was banned, someone has taken his place so quickly.

 

[belair]

If he was better defensively the coach would have given him more minutes.

There's also the simple idea that certain players gel with certain players. Plenty of players come through here who simply don't mesh with the skill in the top two lines.

Working with McDavid or Draisaitl starts with allowing those players to play their game. Yamamoto was a player that both of those players enjoyed playing with. Puljujarvi had a stretch where he thrived but also saw long stretches where the line struggled.

There's no suggestion that Kostin was a player whose game would elevate the production of a scoring line. Little to suggest that he was a player who'd adapt to a quicker moving skill game. Wasn't really worth the bump in salary to find out.

He hit paydirt in our bottom six in a year where things were clicking. It was a trade that benefitted both parties. Kostin got paid and we found a way out of a contract that had to be moved in short order. Things worked out.

 

[Soundwave]

There's also the simple idea that certain players gel with certain players. Plenty of players come through here who simply don't mesh with the skill in the top two lines.

Working with McDavid or Draisaitl starts with allowing those players to play their game. Yamamoto was a player that both of those players enjoyed playing with. Puljujarvi had a stretch where he thrived but also saw long stretches where the line struggled.

There's no suggestion that Kostin was a player whose game would elevate the production of a scoring line. Little to suggest that he was a player who'd adapt to a quicker moving skill game. Wasn't really worth the bump in salary to find out.

He hit paydirt in our bottom six in a year where things were clicking. It was a trade that benefitted both parties. Kostin got paid and we found a way out of a contract that had to be moved in short order. Things worked out.

We got rid of the "way better than Kostin" contract of Yamamoto, lol who Detroit wanted not part of (guess why).

Also it was nice not losing in round 1, something Kostin played a big part in. Because if that had happened, this would have been a very different summer.

 

[belair]

We got rid of the "way better than Kostin" contract of Yamamoto, lol who Detroit wanted not part of (guess why).

Also it was nice not losing in round 1, something Kostin played a big part in. Because if that had happened, this would have been a very different summer.

You must've missed the part where I said that neither of these players is overly valuable when they start to earn more money against your team's cap. The Oilers filled that role with Connor Brown making league minimum this season.

Kostin was a success as an Edmonton Oiler. Just like Maroon, Kassian and Chiasson were in their first seasons here. Doubling down on that success is where things have gone wrong in the past.

 

[Soundwave]

You must've missed the part where I said that neither of these players is overly valuable when they start to earn more money against your team's cap. The Oilers filled that role with Connor Brown making league minimum this season.

Kostin was a success as an Edmonton Oiler. Just like Maroon, Kassian and Chiasson were in their first seasons here. Doubling down on that success is where things have gone wrong in the past.

*3 million cap hit for next year sold separately