Rumor: Rumors & Proposals Thread | Lavoie Vs. Pederson Vs. Sutter Vs. Gagner Vs. Caggiula

Which of these players makes the team?

  • Lavoie

    Votes: 56 39.4%
  • Pederson

    Votes: 14 9.9%
  • Sutter

    Votes: 15 10.6%
  • Gagner

    Votes: 57 40.1%
  • Caggiula

    Votes: 7 4.9%
  • Bourgault

    Votes: 8 5.6%
  • Petrov

    Votes: 1 0.7%
  • Other (specify in a post)

    Votes: 1 0.7%
  • None of them makes the team, we'll start with 11 forwards

    Votes: 8 5.6%

  • Total voters
    142
  • Poll closed .
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Fourier

Registered User
Dec 29, 2006
26,750
22,418
Waterloo Ontario
Goal differential and standings are two very different things though. You've used Vegas as the example yourself. I'll list off the Cup winners and their standing in goal differential from that year.

10th
3rd
7th
2nd
12th
11th
4th
2nd
4th
7th
1st
11th
2nd
2nd
9th

It seems like being anywhere in the top 12 is fine. Not sure how this is the excellent predictor in anything other than winning enough games to make the playoffs.
The median in that group is 4 with 1/3 being in the top 2. I'd say that this is a pretty good predictor. And lets look at the main outliers. 2023 Vegas, 2019 St. Loius, 2018 Washington, 2012 LA Kings. The other three winners besides Vegas were all big surprises. LA barely made the playoffs. In fact without 15 OT points they don't come close.

Teams do go on heaters. But more often than not the better regular season teams are more successful in the playoffs.
 

GOilers88

#FreeMoustacheRides
Dec 24, 2016
15,196
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I am asking how I could view the data for a certain statistic team-wise between regular season and playoffs. See who improved, see which teams struggled and who improved come playoff time, to try and figure out why. Is CF% something worse gauging these teams off of? I feel like it isn't because of how flawed corsi is. For example in the charts we went over, Vegas was never shooting pucks from the perimeter. In fact the entire perimeter of the offensive zone was heavily blued out for them, meaning they are never gaining corsi +'s by shooting pucks from these zero-chance areas, whereas in Edmonton the left wall of the offensive zone was lit up like a Christmas tree in red, meaning we are gaining way more corsi+'s from an area that is never going to lead to a real opportunity.

The fact is Vegas won the entire conference with a bad corsi relative to their finishing position. I would assume it's because they are efficient with the puck, and are regarded as the powerhouse braintrust of the league, identifying talent and seemingly doing everything right in developing a championship roster.

Looking into where their shots are being generated from, from the Cup champs would have significant value one would imagine. Rather, where they are NOT taking shots from.

Why does Vegas take way less shots from the half walls and outer edges of the rink than other teams? Why did they win the conference? Why did they win the Cup despite having a poor corsi? Could it be because their coaching staff has implemented a strategy that opts not to waste opportunities with the puck in preference to losing a corsi+ opportunity trying to take it closer to the net? That's my thinking on it.

Maybe I will try and take a look at Colorado, Tampa, St. Louis, the other past champs in their winning year and see what I can find. Thanks.
Sounds like you're trying to come up with a statistical recipe to winning a championship. I don't think that's how sports work. There's a ton of luck and good fortune involved in any team winning any championship and I don't think you can really quantify it.
 

duul

Registered User
Jun 21, 2010
10,462
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Sounds like you're trying to come up with a statistical recipe to winning a championship. I don't think that's how sports work. There's a ton of luck and good fortune involved in any team winning any championship and I don't think you can really quantify it.
I am trying to find commonality between championship clubs. It seems like team shot selection is something they have in common, or at least they AVOID the same areas of the ice to take shots from if they can help it. Perhaps a strategic or general mindset shift to get pucks to certain areas they think are more beneficial. We seem to avoid the high slot entirely, which is where teams like Colorado, Tampa, St. Louis all thrive.

Why is it that these cup winners take LESS shots from in front of the net than league average despite dominating the standings? Why do we take the most?
 
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TheNumber4

Registered User
Nov 11, 2011
44,707
55,679
Wanted a much bigger role/more pay. Holland didn't like his demands.

(one of the scouts I know told me this)
Really? Makes sense to me that the Org walked away. Dude was hyped for some of his calls, and tried to relay that into a raise. But Holland, saw him for what he was, just an average video coach.
 

Tobias Kahun

Registered User
Oct 3, 2017
45,147
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I am trying to find commonality between championship clubs. It seems like team shot selection is something they have in common, or at least they AVOID the same areas of the ice to take shots from if they can help it. Perhaps a strategic or general mindset shift to get pucks to certain areas they think are more beneficial. We seem to avoid the high slot entirely, which is where teams like Colorado, Tampa, St. Louis all thrive.

Why is it that these cup winners take LESS shots from in front of the net than league average despite dominating the standings? Why do we take the most?
16 wins in the playoffs.

So now slot shots aren’t important.
 

Broberg Speed

Registered User
Oct 23, 2020
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Connor McDavid excited about the Battle of Alberta at Heritage Classic

RAW | Connor McDavid 09.06.23


Edit: first video was taken down from the Edmonton Oiler channel, then posted to the Edmonton Journal channel.
 
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Behind Enemy Lines

Registered User
Feb 19, 2003
17,011
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Vancouver
I am trying to find commonality between championship clubs. It seems like team shot selection is something they have in common, or at least they AVOID the same areas of the ice to take shots from if they can help it. Perhaps a strategic or general mindset shift to get pucks to certain areas they think are more beneficial. We seem to avoid the high slot entirely, which is where teams like Colorado, Tampa, St. Louis all thrive.

Why is it that these cup winners take LESS shots from in front of the net than league average despite dominating the standings? Why do we take the most?
Spend some time in the other end of the ice ... so to speak. Top NHL contender teams will generally all have high scoring metrics. The truly elite teams also thrive with goal suppression. St. Louis had quite possibly the best d-corp of the past decade. Tampa has an elite d-corp backed by a true elite goaltender. Colorado balanced their young, skill d-corp with heavy veteran support d to get over the top after being run out of the rink the year before by big, heavy Vegas forecheck. They learned to close out tight, low scoring games which was critical in their final against Tampa.

Vegas just ran a regular season without its #1 goaltender and 4 of its 5 back-ups were all over .915 save %. Their new coach called his system 'goalie friendly' and that proved out with reduced goals against despite unheard of injuries and their own zone system and deep blue line held up with a successful Cup run.

Vegas won the EV strength scoring and sadly Edmonton could not match the consistency in own zone play with system breakdowns, poor decisions at in opportune times, and outworked by Vegas forwards. Hill delivered the opportunistic hot goalie critical need. Vegas structure and consistency became a razor fine difference in this series. Skinner had a couple bad goals but overall it was more a symptom of the Oil's remaining development need to match elite Cup winning team's ability to defend consistently with structure and steady high rate commitment.

The Oiler issue is not scoring goals.
 

Anarchism

John Henry
May 23, 2019
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northern alberta
Spend some time in the other end of the ice ... so to speak. Top NHL contender teams will generally all have high scoring metrics. The truly elite teams also thrive with goal suppression. St. Louis had quite possibly the best d-corp of the past decade. Tampa has an elite d-corp backed by a true elite goaltender. Colorado balanced their young, skill d-corp with heavy veteran support d to get over the top after being run out of the rink the year before by big, heavy Vegas forecheck. They learned to close out tight, low scoring games which was critical in their final against Tampa.

Vegas just ran a regular season without its #1 goaltender and 4 of its 5 back-ups were all over .915 save %. Their new coach called his system 'goalie friendly' and that proved out with reduced goals against despite unheard of injuries and their own zone system and deep blue line held up with a successful Cup run.

Vegas won the EV strength scoring and sadly Edmonton could not match the consistency in own zone play with system breakdowns, poor decisions at in opportune times, and outworked by Vegas forwards. Hill delivered the opportunistic hot goalie critical need. Vegas structure and consistency became a razor fine difference in this series. Skinner had a couple bad goals but overall it was more a symptom of the Oil's remaining development need to match elite Cup winning team's ability to defend consistently with structure and steady high rate commitment.

The Oiler issue is not scoring goals.
Okay...so why didn't Holland buy us a 3rd pair right D.
Wouldn't a Kulak--Good vet take away so minutes from Nurse an Ceci? Wouldn't that also mean Kulak is babysitting less thus giving him more of a chance to activate?
 

Behind Enemy Lines

Registered User
Feb 19, 2003
17,011
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Vancouver
Okay...so why didn't Holland buy us a 3rd pair right D.
Wouldn't a Kulak--Good vet take away so minutes from Nurse an Ceci? Wouldn't that also mean Kulak is babysitting less thus giving him more of a chance to activate?
Can't speak for Holland. Myself, I don't believe this team is a 3rd pair defensemen away from a Cup contender blue line. They need to finish this defense from the top end down adding a top 4 RD to complement Nurse.

They have a good enough team to begin the season to evaluate green bananas Broberg and Desharnais as bottom pair RD options on a Win now team. Secondly to assess where a healthy Ceci's game is at and whether he can sustain consistent high level play within their top 2 d-pairings. Third, can this coaching staff improve their own zone systems, structure and consistency and this team embrace these elements to elevate to final, elite level play.
 

tiger_80

Registered User
Apr 11, 2007
10,342
3,609
Any reason why Holloway cant be our 4C?

Foegele-McLeod-Lavoie
Janmark-Holloway-Ryan
Why do people keep penciling Janmark into the 4th line? He's a 3rd liner. Also, is not Ryan a center?

Can't speak for Holland. Myself, I don't believe this team is a 3rd pair defensemen away from a Cup contender blue line. They need to finish this defense from the top end down adding a top 4 RD to complement Nurse.

They have a good enough team to begin the season to evaluate green bananas Broberg and Desharnais as bottom pair RD options on a Win now team. Secondly to assess where a healthy Ceci's game is at and whether he can sustain consistent high level play within their top 2 d-pairings. Third, can this coaching staff improve their own zone systems, structure and consistency and this team embrace these elements to elevate to final, elite level play.
Imho, they need to add a 4-5 d-man at the deadline. They added Ekholm last year, so they in a much better spot.

Ekholm-Bouchard
Nurse-X
Ceci-Kulak

would be a really strong and balanced group.
 

FlameChampion

Registered User
Jul 13, 2011
14,820
17,482
Can't speak for Holland. Myself, I don't believe this team is a 3rd pair defensemen away from a Cup contender blue line. They need to finish this defense from the top end down adding a top 4 RD to complement Nurse.

They have a good enough team to begin the season to evaluate green bananas Broberg and Desharnais as bottom pair RD options on a Win now team. Secondly to assess where a healthy Ceci's game is at and whether he can sustain consistent high level play within their top 2 d-pairings. Third, can this coaching staff improve their own zone systems, structure and consistency and this team embrace these elements to elevate to final, elite level play.
I think we just have to wait and see how the season goes.

I think a top 4 RD is a pretty hard upgrade to find honestly.

The best thing that could happen to this team is if Broberg gets stapled to Ekholm and turns into a top 4D by the trade deadline/end of the year. Its probably not that likely though unfortunately.

I also think Nurse has to show more consistency and composure to help his partners game. I think hes trys to do too much and is too aggressive. Hopefully, a full year of Ekholm allows him to pick his spots better.

Problem I see with RD is like:
- You have the elite tier like Makar, Fox
- You have the offensive type who tend to be weaker defensively
- You have a mid tier guys
- You have bottom tier guys

Theres like a high tier missing between elite and mid. I can’t even think of guys the Oilers could target who would make sizeable difference. Theres Pesce and then who else? And then you have to try and make cap work,

I agree that a RD would really make this team much better. But it’s going to be tough. Team likely has to try and figure out a Ekholm type of trade but on the right side. Hopefully our scouts can figure it out.
 
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McDoused

Registered User
Feb 5, 2007
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Katy <3
Why do people keep penciling Janmark into the 4th line? He's a 3rd liner. Also, is not Ryan a center?


Imho, they need to add a 4-5 d-man at the deadline. They added Ekholm last year, so they in a much better spot.

Ekholm-Bouchard
Nurse-X
Ceci-Kulak

would be a really strong and balanced group.

Beacuse Lavoie has chemistry with McLeod and that line needs a shooter.

Ryan shouldnt be playing center at his age. Good centers are usually s bit bigger and heavier so they can use their strength to win more battles. Holloway excelled at center when he played in college.
 

bobbythebrain

Registered User
Jul 30, 2016
14,149
13,986
I am trying to find commonality between championship clubs. It seems like team shot selection is something they have in common, or at least they AVOID the same areas of the ice to take shots from if they can help it. Perhaps a strategic or general mindset shift to get pucks to certain areas they think are more beneficial. We seem to avoid the high slot entirely, which is where teams like Colorado, Tampa, St. Louis all thrive.

Why is it that these cup winners take LESS shots from in front of the net than league average despite dominating the standings? Why do we take the most?
As per Vegas player. They won simply b/c they zoned their defensive strategy, but the main reason is everyone bought in and executed

PPL love to blame Holland for the depth or goaltending. Woody for playing too much Skinner, or nor switching the defense. Or Skinner for not being good enough

The simple fact is we lost cuz too many players missed their assignments on defense. It's why several times it looked like Nurse was running clueless, yet the confusion wasn't his fault. It was guys failing to make proper switches

Sometimes it's as simple as players having to make the plays they are required to
 

Behind Enemy Lines

Registered User
Feb 19, 2003
17,011
18,823
Vancouver
I think we just have to wait and see how the season goes.

I think a top 4 RD is a pretty hard upgrade to find honestly.

The best thing that could happen to this team is if Broberg gets stapled to Ekholm and turns into a top 4D by the trade deadline/end of the year. Its probably not that likely though unfortunately.

I also think Nurse has to show more consistency and composure to help his partners game. I think hes trys to do too much and is too aggressive. Hopefully, a full year of Ekholm allows him to pick his spots better.

Problem I see with RD is like:
- You have the elite tier like Makar, Fox
- You have the offensive type who tend to be weaker defensively
- You have a mid tier guys
- You have bottom tier guys

Theres like a high tier missing between elite and mid. I can’t even think of guys the Oilers could target who would make sizeable difference. Theres Pesce and then who else? And then you have to try and make cap work,

I agree that a RD would really make this team much better. But it’s going to be tough. Team likely has to try and figure out a Ekholm type of trade but on the right side. Hopefully our scouts can figure it out.
Yes, I wrote they have the regular season runway to evaluate Broberg, Desharnais and see how Ceci plays in a top 2 pairing role. So we agree there is time to evaluate their personnel options.

Personally, I don't think the Oilers are going to mess with their top 2 pairings specifically Ekholm and Bouchard. Stabilizing Bouchard into a rock solid top 2 pair d-man with 1PP responsibilities is vital. Ekholm is a perfect complement. Oilers need to see if Kulak can help stabilize green banana Broberg as a viable, inexperienced 3rd pairing option on a mature, winning window team. That's the normal, manageable and realistic path for inexperienced young d-men on mature phase teams.

This defense hinges a fair bit on Nurse's ability to reduce own zone mistakes while improving his consistency and discipline. The quality and price point of a complementary d-man for him quite possibly changes if Nurse fully realizes his high end game. Course I think the coach needs to simplify this team's own zone system away from hybrid man to man which breaks down with impulsive puck chasing d-men vacating high scoring areas and confusion with forward and defense switches (both were issues in the Vegas series).

They don't necessarily need elite or an offensive style defender. More a veteran glue type defender like Cernak or Manson as examples on recent Cup teams. D-men like Brodin, Taniv, Larsson, Slavin (though likely a pipe dream). Ad nauseam I've said Parayko would be imo a perfect complement to Nurse and a formidable condor plus sized pair with great skating and two-way ability. His contract term is a killer.

An Ekholm trade type (money out, 1st and prospect) is probably required. Will say that even if Broberg solidifies himself as a 3RD he might be a required piece to upgrade this team's d-corp to a championship level.
 

Stud Muffin

Registered User
Jan 2, 2014
5,415
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Manitoba
Remember those days when we would sign random successful KHL/euro league players with the hopes they'd be equally successful in the NHL?

Luckily, those days are behind us.
That’s a bad take IMO. If you have a guy that doesn’t work out then no big deal. On the flip side you could hit a homerun on a Kuzmenko. It’s a good resource for a team to use from time to time. Nothing wrong with taking a free player for a test drive. Every avenue of player procurement should be explored.
 
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Anarchism

John Henry
May 23, 2019
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northern alberta
Can't speak for Holland. Myself, I don't believe this team is a 3rd pair defensemen away from a Cup contender blue line. They need to finish this defense from the top end down adding a top 4 RD to complement Nurse.

They have a good enough team to begin the season to evaluate green bananas Broberg and Desharnais as bottom pair RD options on a Win now team. Secondly to assess where a healthy Ceci's game is at and whether he can sustain consistent high level play within their top 2 d-pairings. Third, can this coaching staff improve their own zone systems, structure and consistency and this team embrace these elements to elevate to final, elite level play.
Everyone here speaks for Holland so much.
Your answer is do nothing lets assess.
 
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