Fourier
Registered User
The median in that group is 4 with 1/3 being in the top 2. I'd say that this is a pretty good predictor. And lets look at the main outliers. 2023 Vegas, 2019 St. Loius, 2018 Washington, 2012 LA Kings. The other three winners besides Vegas were all big surprises. LA barely made the playoffs. In fact without 15 OT points they don't come close.Goal differential and standings are two very different things though. You've used Vegas as the example yourself. I'll list off the Cup winners and their standing in goal differential from that year.
10th
3rd
7th
2nd
12th
11th
4th
2nd
4th
7th
1st
11th
2nd
2nd
9th
It seems like being anywhere in the top 12 is fine. Not sure how this is the excellent predictor in anything other than winning enough games to make the playoffs.
Teams do go on heaters. But more often than not the better regular season teams are more successful in the playoffs.