Rumor: Rumors & Proposals Thread | Lavoie Vs. Pederson Vs. Sutter Vs. Gagner Vs. Caggiula

[Fourier]

Link it?

We are a lower end/at best middle of the pack 5 on 5 team, and no cup winner has been anywhere near as bad. We’re trying to win a Cup here and our 5 on 5 numbers are trash. What’s there to be wrong about?

We’re talking about non McDavid lines here.

The Oilers GF% with McDavid off the ice last year was 52.25%. In contrast, Vegas without Eichel had a GF% of 51.39%. In fact only 12 teams in the league had a better GF% overall than 52.25%. Hence the Oilers, minus the best player in the world, would still have been in the top 35% of the league in terms of their share of 5 vs 5 goals. If you look at the team without either McDavid or Draisaitl they have a GF% of 55.22% which would be better than all but 5 teams. This year Vegas' overall GF% was 53.17% vs 52.17% for the Oilers. In terms of xGF% the Oilers were at 52.71% vs Vegas at 51.71% for the Oilers. The difference is pretty minimal.

Now what is true is that the cup winner in the playoffs tends to have the highest or nearly the highest GF% over that playoffs. That is almost by definition. But what is interesting about Vegas this year is that while their 5 vs 5 goal share was the highest of all teams at 66.67% with Carolina second at 53.45%, their xGF% was only 51.11% compared with the Oilers at 53.97% just behind Carolina and Dallas at 54.02% and 53.99% respectively. The gap between Vegas' actual GF% and their xGF% is extremely large by historical standards. So what you have is a lot of evidence that as a 5 vs 5 team teh Oilers and Vegas over the long haul are not so different. But Vegas just managed to go on an unusual run of higher than expected goal scoring together with better than expected goaltending.

 

[CycloneSweep]

GF% being the most obviously important ‘advanced stat’ of them all has us at 12th in our best work. Only worse from there. Sure seems middlijgvto me. How about Vegas, Colorado, Tampa?

KEEP IN MIND we have the two top scorers in the entire NHL and are 12th. What does that say about the rest of the group? It states our bottom 6 is likely in the bottom 6 of NHL bottom 6’s. as in they don’t produce anywhere near well enough.

Okay let’s look at the last few cup winners and their regular season 5v5 GF%
(As a note ours last year was 53.2 and we were 13 place)
2023- Vegas 11th 53.78
2022- Colorado 5th 56.41
2021- Tampa 12th 53.37
2020- Tampa 3rd 57.04
2019- St Louis 10th 53.04
2018- Washington 9th 52.63

So really we aren’t that far off, and he’ll we are close to what 4/6 of the last cup winners are.

 

[Dazed and Confused]

Any reason why Holloway cant be our 4C?

Foegele-McLeod-Lavoie
Janmark-Holloway-Ryan

In a vacuum, Holloway is probably be the best option at 4C. Though it really depends on what the other 3 centres are.

If McLeod is the #3, then I don't mind Holloway as the 4th, as that line should still get some minutes and opportunity. However if Woody runs the big 3 down the middle (which is the option I like), then I'd rather someone like Pederson or Sutter (or Stastny) as the 4C, someone I don't mind playing 8 min a night in a purely defensive/grinder role.


Still, I think you're on the right track,. If you were going to go with Holloway at centre, Janmark and Ryan are perfect linemates. But I think the correct move is using Brown as an upgrade on Ryan's role from the playoffs on the 3rd line, and then have Lavoie carried in the top 6.
I like RNH/Hyman as a winger duo, and Lavoie seems like a fit across from Kane; plus I can see both of those winger combos working with either McDavid or Drai.


RNH-McDrai-Hyman
Kane-McDrai-Lavoie
Foegele-McLeod-Brown
Janmark-Holloway-Ryan

But even then focusing on Holloway, even with this set up I can't help but think the team would be better off with a proper 4th line C, and having him as the 1st injury call up.

 

[FlameChampion]

In a vacuum, Holloway is probably be the best option at 4C. Though it really depends on what the other 3 centres are.

If McLeod is the #3, then I don't mind Holloway as the 4th, as that line should still get some minutes and opportunity. However if Woody runs the big 3 down the middle (which is the option I like), then I'd rather someone like Pederson or Sutter (or Stastny) as the 4C, someone I don't mind playing 8 min a night in a purely defensive/grinder role.


Still, I think you're on the right track,. If you were going to go with Holloway at centre, Janmark and Ryan are perfect linemates. But I think the correct move is using Brown as an upgrade on Ryan's role from the playoffs on the 3rd line, and then have Lavoie carried in the top 6.
I like RNH/Hyman as a winger duo, and Lavoie seems like a fit across from Kane; plus I can see both of those winger combos working with either McDavid or Drai.


RNH-McDrai-Hyman
Kane-McDrai-Lavoie
Foegele-McLeod-Brown
Janmark-Holloway-Ryan

But even then focusing on Holloway, even with this set up I can't help but think the team would be better off with a proper 4th line C, and having him as the 1st injury call up.

Likewise an interesting combination would be:

Holloway - McDavid - Brown
Kane - Draisaitl - Lavoie
Foegele/Janmark - RNH - Hyman
Janmark/Foegele - McLeod - Ryan

Doesnt really work if Holloway and Lavoie cant pull their weight though.

 

[duul]

Okay let’s look at the last few cup winners and their regular season 5v5 GF%
(As a note ours last year was 53.2 and we were 13 place)
2023- Vegas 11th 53.78
2022- Colorado 5th 56.41
2021- Tampa 12th 53.37
2020- Tampa 3rd 57.04
2019- St Louis 10th 53.04
2018- Washington 9th 52.63

So really we aren’t that far off, and he’ll we are close to what 4/6 of the last cup winners are.

That’s good to know.

So what is the conclusion, that 5v5 regular season GF% isn’t important? That GF% is not an accurate way to gauge 5v5 success, that regular season statistics are not necessarily worth lending credence to as the game changes substantially into the playoffs? As in certain play style lend themselves much better to softer checking regular season games etc.

I would like to find something that all cup winners and dominant playoff teams have in common. As Fourier mentioned it’s xGF%.

A large study on finding commonality among cup winners or at least high level playoff performing teams would be interesting and comparing them to regular season play as well.

It has to be more than luck and staving off injuries. The game is notably different between the two modes.

The Oilers GF% with McDavid off the ice last year was 52.25%. In contrast, Vegas without Eichel had a GF% of 51.39%. In fact only 12 teams in the league had a better GF% overall than 52.25%. Hence the Oilers, minus the best player in the world, would still have been in the top 35% of the league in terms of their share of 5 vs 5 goals. If you look at the team without either McDavid or Draisaitl they have a GF% of 55.22% which would be better than all but 5 teams. This year Vegas' overall GF% was 53.17% vs 52.17% for the Oilers. In terms of xGF% the Oilers were at 52.71% vs Vegas at 51.71% for the Oilers. The difference is pretty minimal.

Now what is true is that the cup winner in the playoffs tends to have the highest or nearly the highest GF% over that playoffs. That is almost by definition. But what is interesting about Vegas this year is that while their 5 vs 5 goal share was the highest of all teams at 66.67% with Carolina second at 53.45%, their xGF% was only 51.11% compared with the Oilers at 53.97% just behind Carolina and Dallas at 54.02% and 53.99% respectively. The gap between Vegas' actual GF% and their xGF% is extremely large by historical standards. So what you have is a lot of evidence that as a 5 vs 5 team teh Oilers and Vegas over the long haul are not so different. But Vegas just managed to go on an unusual run of higher than expected goal scoring together with better than expected goaltending.

The fact that our teams GF% improved without McDavid or draisaitl playing should tell you the stat itself is bunk.

 

[CupofOil]

I can see Holloway getting caught in the numbers game. Him and Broberg are the only two guys that probably could make the team, but don't have to clear waivers.

Holloway would have to bomb in camp/preseason to not make this roster. The forward depth isn't as strong as it was to close last year and he should be better than he was last year so if he doesn't make the team it's a big problem. The time is now for him, and Broberg.

Also, I see that a certain poster is still moving goal posts. It must be nice for some posters who have some other posters on their ignore list to navigate this forum. I think I should follow suit because all I see reading through pages and pages of these threads is the same old tired complaints from the same group of posters.

 

[CycloneSweep]

That’s good to know.

So what is the conclusion, that 5v5 regular season GF% isn’t important? That GF% is not an accurate way to gauge 5v5 success, that regular season statistics are not necessarily worth lending credence to as the game changes substantially into the playoffs? As in certain play style lend themselves much better to softer checking regular season games etc.

I would like to find something that all cup winners and dominant playoff teams have in common. As Fourier mentioned it’s xGF%.

A large study on finding commonality among cup winners or at least high level playoff performing teams would be interesting and comparing them to regular season play as well.

It has to be more than luck and staving off injuries. The game is notably different between the two modes.


The fact that our teams GF% improved without McDavid or draisaitl playing should tell you the stat itself is bunk.

I think you misread. He is saying that our teams GF% when McDavid and Drai aren’t on the ice IMPROVED from the previous season. Aka our depth got better.

 

[GOilers88]

I think you misread. He is saying that our teams GF% when McDavid and Drai aren’t on the ice IMPROVED from the previous season. Aka our depth got better.

Which improved from the year prior to that as well, I do believe.

 

[BudBundy]

The fact that our teams GF% improved without McDavid or draisaitl playing should tell you the stat itself is bunk.

Why would that be bunk? Our top 2 lines draw the best opponents and top pairing Ds. Their GF% indicates how well they played versus that competition. If our 3rd and 4th lines, who were often facing lesser forward and 3rd pairing D, had a higher GF% than our top lines did, how would that invalidate the result?? We finally had outscoring depth lines, which we haven’t had for ages. That’s a good thing. It’s not a sign that the stat is flawed.

 

[Fourier]

The fact that our teams GF% improved without McDavid or draisaitl playing should tell you the stat itself is bunk.

The stat is not bunk. You just have to know what it tells you. It is not really an individual stat. It is a team/unit/ situational stat. In this case, it says that with McDavid and Leon off the ice the Oilers score more goals than they give up and do so at a ratio that is actually quite good relative to the league.

Draisaitl tends to have a somewhat poor GF% away from McDavid. That is actually fairly easy to explain. Away from McDavid he has often had wingers who are basically bottom six guys. But when playing with Leon they are more likely to face top end opposition with a fairly heavy defensive push. To illustrate when McDavid and Loen are together they have a Off Zone FO% of 64.38% with 206 OZ FO vs 114 DZ FO. Away from McDavid that flips with 219 OZ FO to 297 DZ FO or an OZFO% of 42.44%. Now some of that discrepancy is because McDavid and Leon together dominate possession. But it is also a factor of differing usage when they are apart. Note Leon with Nuge away from McDavid had a GF% of 55.88%. So there is evidence that this has more to do with the fact that the Oilers typical bottom 6 wingers were not ready to carry the heavy load in the role of playing with Leon.

McDavid plays against the oppositions best forwards and best defensemen. Like Leon, when he has a very tough load. When he plays with Leon their GF% is 57.14%. With Nuge it was 58.82%. Away from both it dropped to 48.94% which again makes sense since now he has to carry the load mostly by himself. Interestingly enough Nuge away from these two had a GF% of 53.33%. Again, this is not a saying that Nuge is better than either but is more a reflection of the fact that playing away from those two Nuge would see lesser competition even when he was on the second line.

In the end what GF% tells you is whether in a particular circumstance your team is scoring more than they give up. If they are that is good. If they are not its a negative. Now

 

[K1984]

I do find it hilarious that duul made a Kostin vs. McLeod poll in the mains to prove a point for this board and then completely backfired on him when McLeod got 2/3 of the votes

The opinion that Kostin would have been more valuable to retain than McLeod is completely baffling to me.

I get the sense it's another "Yakupov/Puljujarvi/Bear Effect" where the fact that the player is a fan favorite clouds people's ability to judge their actual ability. The worst is when these folks have to resort to slagging the more valuable player (McLeod) as a means to justify their fandom for the guy they like.

 

[Tad Mikowsky]

That’s good to know.

So what is the conclusion, that 5v5 regular season GF% isn’t important? That GF% is not an accurate way to gauge 5v5 success, that regular season statistics are not necessarily worth lending credence to as the game changes substantially into the playoffs? As in certain play style lend themselves much better to softer checking regular season games etc.

I would like to find something that all cup winners and dominant playoff teams have in common. As Fourier mentioned it’s xGF%.

A large study on finding commonality among cup winners or at least high level playoff performing teams would be interesting and comparing them to regular season play as well.

It has to be more than luck and staving off injuries. The game is notably different between the two modes.


The fact that our teams GF% improved without McDavid or draisaitl playing should tell you the stat itself is bunk.

The stat is bunk as soon as it proves that you’re full of shit duuLLLLLLL.

You have no idea what you’re talking about.

 

[Jimmi McJenkins]

All the woots

 

[KeithIsActuallyBad]

April is too far away.

 

[FlameChampion]

All the woots

Is a lot of players there. I assume the whole team is basically there?

 

[Fixed to Ruin]

Is a lot of players there. I assume the whole team is basically there?

I would also assume alot of AHL guys as well as Gagner and Sutter would be present.

 

[Oilers in NS]

Ill change it up a little. Hardest week to pick in NFL. Who does everyone have? I need help in my pool
CAR at ATL ATL
CIN at CLV CLV
JAK at IND JAK
TB at MIN MIN
TEN at NO NO
SF at PIT PIT
ARZ at WSH WSH
HOU at BLT BLT
GB at CHI GB
LV at DEN DEN
PHI at NE PHI
MIA at LAC LAC
LAR at SEA LAR
DAL at NYG NYG

BUF at NYJ BUF

 

[Behind Enemy Lines]

All the woots

Nice sight to see. Think that's Ekholm Broberg pairing in white. Staple the kid to Ekholm for the Captain's skate to absorb anything and everything from the big veteran brain.

 

[SupremeTeam16]

I think we’ve got a good mix heading into camp. Good veteran depth throughout the lineup, young guys like Holloway/McLeod/Broberg who have gained some good pro experience over the last two years and are looking to take that next step developmentally. Then you’ve got some young guys like Lavoie/Bourgault who have some pro experience and are ready to try and stick with the big club and finally some veteran pto guys in Sutter and Gagner who have played a lot of NHL games and can really help our young guys understand what it takes to make it in the bugs.

There is a good mix of depth, opportunity and competition heading into camp.

 

[Tobias Kahun]

That’s good to know.

So what is the conclusion, that 5v5 regular season GF% isn’t important? That GF% is not an accurate way to gauge 5v5 success, that regular season statistics are not necessarily worth lending credence to as the game changes substantially into the playoffs? As in certain play style lend themselves much better to softer checking regular season games etc.

I would like to find something that all cup winners and dominant playoff teams have in common. As Fourier mentioned it’s xGF%.

A large study on finding commonality among cup winners or at least high level playoff performing teams would be interesting and comparing them to regular season play as well.

It has to be more than luck and staving off injuries. The game is notably different between the two modes.


The fact that our teams GF% improved without McDavid or draisaitl playing should tell you the stat itself is bunk.

So since xGF% is the important stat now, you agree that the oilers are a very good team?

 

[FlameChampion]

Noah Gregor on PTO with Toronto?

 

[Anarchism]

I think we’ve got a good mix heading into camp. Good veteran depth throughout the lineup, young guys like Holloway/McLeod/Broberg who have gained some good pro experience over the last two years and are looking to take that next step developmentally. Then you’ve got some young guys like Lavoie/Bourgault who have some pro experience and are ready to try and stick with the big club and finally some veteran pto guys in Sutter and Gagner who have played a lot of NHL games and can really help our young guys understand what it takes to make it in the bugs.

There is a good mix of depth, opportunity and competition heading into camp.

YES MAN!

 

[Anarchism]

Noah Gregor on PTO with Toronto?

Dylan, Pontus, Noah.

 

[Tad Mikowsky]

YES MAN!

….nothing…he….said….was….wrong

 

[Frank the Tank]

Noah Gregor on PTO with Toronto?

Interesting choice because there's a lot of competition for bottom-6 spots on the Leafs.