Rumor: Rumors & Proposals Thread | Does Bowman Make His Mark on the Team Before Training Camp?

[5 Mins 4 Ftg]

If I hear he’s building a house in the west end in this thread, I might jump off that “end of the world” structure.

You won’t because he’s already built it. He lives there incognito and practices with McDavid wearing a Leon Draisaitl disguise.

 

[AM]

It's not entirely black and white. It may well be true but if you look at the Broberg deal that one would have been almost impossible for him to turn down if he was being offered something like $1.3M to $1.5M. When your career earnings are less than $1M its pretty hard to pass on an additional $6M when you have yet to establish yourself in the league. That deal comes pretty close to ensuring financial security for life if he is smart.

But I am looking at this from a position of what makes the most sense for the Oilers. The problem we have is that we don't know if Kane will be on LTIR for the whole year. If he was then a match for one or both might well make sense from an asset management perspective and I really emphasize might because I am not at all convinced this is the case. It would be a significant risk but if both players had good years you could trade either or both next August for more than the compensation if you needed the space. If Kane is not out for the season though I don't see a realistic way to match Broberg. They would have to trade both Kulak and Ceci and that is too big a risk.

I don't think either player would ruffle any feathers in the room but where an issue might arise is with the fans. The pressure on either to earn their dollars would be immense, especially on Broberg.

These players want to be paid instead of winning. I don’t begrudge them that. But the oilers are in win now window so if they aren’t cheap/ cost effective in the next 8 months, they are down the river.

 

[foshizzle]

No, but if you want low 5v5 Goals Against, good penalty killing and low turnovers while playing the toughest minutes, he's your guy.

He is absolutely not your guy in those situations. He gets utterly destroyed in all those situations.

 

[Macblender]

Honestly everything reported lately - just let broberg walk - use the cap flexibility to bring in a better piece at the deadline.

 

[SupremeTeam16]

Here's an interesting snippet.. not really a good outlook on them trying to trade Ceci and Kulak. Stating they'd have to give up a 1st with Ceci just to move him.

Report: Edmonton Oilers exploring Cody Ceci, Brett Kulak trades to clear cap space for offer sheets | TSN

The Edmonton Oilers are exploring the possibility of moving defencemen Cody Ceci and Brett Kulak to help clear cap space, Postmedia's Bruce Garrioch reports.

www.tsn.ca

The Oilers aren’t backed into a corner, they’ve got the Kane LTIR card to play.

I don’t really buy that GM’s are going to collude to hold Edmonton hostage, I’m betting at least one would take him for free.
Ceci isn’t some awful player with a boat anchor multi year deal, he is a RD who was playing 20 minutes a night on a team that almost won the Cup and was part of their vaunted playoff PK.

I’m guessing there could be a few GM’s saying I can hold them hostage and there’s a small chance I can squeeze a 1st or 2nd out of them or I can get a 20 a night RD who can PK and would improve my blue line for free, who’s got a reasonable cap hit on an expiring deal and I could probably flip him for a 2nd at the deadline if I don’t want to extend him.

 

[Canovin]

If the Oilers can match Broberg and also swing a deal for Rasmus Andersson. We essentially became a much better team.

Kulak for a 3rd
Ceci for a 3rd
Holloway for a 3rd
Use our 2026 1st, 3 x 3rd, prospect for Andersson. 3rd team retain 50% of Andersson.


Ekholm-Bouchard
Broberg-Andersson
Nurse-Stecher/Brown

 

[McShogun99]

If I’m not mistaken an offer sheet next offseason when Neighbors or anyone else that year is rfa, would be after draft so the oilers wouldn’t need to reacquire any picks because they have all of their 26 picks minus 4. If they don’t match Holloway and broberg they’d also likely have the cap flexibility and even possibly the need for a player like Neighbors. There’s enough there for a legit bluff to give Neighbors agent leverage against Armstrong.

The Oilers definitely errored in how they handled this situation and also in how they handled the development of these players but these guys were always projects and the point was to slow cook both to give them a better shot of reaching their potential but also to keep their cap hits down on second contracts. I guess Jackson shouldn’t have been so naive to the fact a gm would have the willingness or desperation to stray from accepted convention. It’s well within his right but if you’re gonna open that box then don’t be surprised if other gm’s look to ass f*** you when you’re inevitably in a bent over position. I do agree that the Oilers will need to be better at identifying undrafted players who fit their team/system to supplement their prospect pool but if it becomes open season on picking off other teams rfa’s they’d have another method to supplement their own system by robbing teams lacking high end talent of young players who’ve been underwhelming with lesser talent but could thrive next to a 97 or 29. Sign me up actually.

By the way, I feel like it’s not often our views differ enough to debate on something lol

If I was Oilers management, for the next few years I would let every Blue RFA know that if STL is playing hardball with them then we'll offer them a fair contract. You offer them enough that it makes STL uncomfortable but not to much that STL doesn't match. You keep doing this and you mess up their cap over the long term.

 

[McShogun99]

The Oilers aren’t giving up 1st/2nd round picks to drop Ceci and Kulak, just so they can overpay Broberg.

Ceci and Kulak aren't even cap dumps. They're both useful players at their cap hit.

 

[Fourier]

Time against elite I find a very flawed stat. Near half of the regulars in the NHL are considered elite.

What matters more is deployment. Having to start and play in your own end consistently causes that. Check all "Defensive" D men in the league, they are pretty much universally < 50% O Zone starts, a much better metric.

Based on the original stats, Parayako is a worse D man than Ceci, but we simply know its not true.

While I would be the last person to try and argue that any of these stats don't have flaws, unless my math skills are a lot worse than I bolded statement cannot be justified.

As far as the rest is concerned I agree that deployment matters. But I do not agree with how you are assessing deployment at all. At least how your post suggests deployment. In particular, you are reading way more into %Zone starts in terms of its importance in how to assess a defenseman's performance.

Lets take a longer look at this. In terms of OZS%, the only Oiler last year with a less than 50% OZS% was Desharnais at 48.38%. Broberg played a lot less of course but he was at 40%. Bouchard had the highest OZS% at 58.73% followed closely by Ekholm at 57.7%. But what are the raw numbers. In terms of defensive zone starts Bouchard had 163 to Ceci's 158. The big point though is that OZS% is simply a measure of the ratio of OZS's to the sum of OZS + DZS. However, the vast majority of a defensemen's starts come on the fly or in the Neutral zone. Last year for example Ceci had 158 DZS out of a total of 1498 starts, or roughly 10.5% of his stars were D zone face offs. If he had 15 fewer DZS and 10 more OZS the whole year his OZS% would have been 55%. That is one more OZ faceoff every 10 games and one less DZ faceoff every 5 games. The impact on GF or GA would likely be minimal and possibly 0.

The reality is that many "defensive defensemen" are actually more poor offensive defenseman than they are strong defensively. A guy like Ekholm is better defensively than Desharnais but if you want to score you put Ekholm on the ice in situations where it is advantageous for your offense. THis is why in a crucial faceoff you use your best faceoff man even though the real world difference between a guy who has a 55% FO% and one who has a 45% FO% might be only 2 goals in a year. As far as starts go this still pales in terms of real outcomes to the impact an Eholm can have overall regardless of how he starts on the ice.

What really impacts the difficulty of deployment is who a defenseman plays against. A defensive zone FO vs three fourth line plugs is not a tougher assignment than starting in the offensive zone vs MacKinnon.

	MacKinnon	Eichel	Kopitar
Bouchard	18:04	13:16	19:04
Ekholm	18:42	12:31	22:20
Nurse	17:40	6:31	23:03
Ceci	10:46	6:43	24:25
Kulak	11:39	6:58	11:28
Desharnais	10:43	7:28	9:40

I picked three top Western centers and looked at TOI for various defensemen. While it is not universally true that Ekholm and Bouchard will play more minutes vs the top dogs on the other teams in any individual game or even over a season. (For example Toronto worked to get Matthews against Nurse and Ceci more so than Bouchard Ekholm), there is no question that Bouchard and Ekholm have tougher overall opposition right now than Nurse and Ceci and that their results against those players are much better. And yes this is true even away from McDavid.

I have said this before, that I actually think Ceci earns his pay. But right now he is struggling to play in the #4 spot on a contender. That said he is probably still the best option the team has at this minute in time.

 

[Fourier]

These players want to be paid instead of winning. I don’t begrudge them that. But the oilers are in win now window so if they aren’t cheap/ cost effective in the next 8 months, they are down the river.

I don't disagree that the Oilers absolute focus should be win now. What I am not 100% sure of is that this does not include one or both players. I do think it is highly unlikely that they can keep Broberg or even should. Holloway is more up in the air for me. As I said before knowing fully the plans for Kane would help, but that is not something we can be privy to.

 

[AM]

The Oilers aren’t backed into a corner, they’ve got the Kane LTIR card to play.

I don’t really buy that GM’s are going to collude to hold Edmonton hostage, I’m betting at least one would take him for free.
Ceci isn’t some awful player with a boat anchor multi year deal, he is a RD who was playing 20 minutes a night on a team that almost won the Cup and was part of their vaunted playoff PK.

I’m guessing there could be a few GM’s saying I can hold them hostage and there’s a small chance I can squeeze a 1st or 2nd out of them or I can get a 20 a night RD who can PK and would improve my blue line for free, who’s got a reasonable cap hit on an expiring deal and I could probably flip him for a 2nd at the deadline if I don’t want to extend him.

I agree, it doesn’t pass the sniff test. Also, I think a year of coffee would help ceci a lot. He is not ideal for the job being given to him. With a little more confidence he can add the offence that will keep his motor going.

 

[AM]

While I would be the last person to try and argue that any of these stats don't have flaws, unless my math skills are a lot worse than I bolded statement cannot be justified.

As far as the rest is concerned I agree that deployment matters. But I do not agree with how you are assessing deployment at all. At least how your post suggests deployment. In particular, you are reading way more into %Zone starts in terms of its importance in how to assess a defenseman's performance.

Lets take a longer look at this. In terms of OZS%, the only Oiler last year with a less than 50% OZS% was Desharnais at 48.38%. Broberg played a lot less of course but he was at 40%. Bouchard had the highest OZS% at 58.73% followed closely by Ekholm at 57.7%. But what are the raw numbers. In terms of defensive zone starts Bouchard had 163 to Ceci's 158. The big point though is that OZS% is simply a measure of the ratio of OZS's to the sum of OZS + DZS. However, the vast majority of a defensemen's starts come on the fly or in the Neutral zone. Last year for example Ceci had 158 DZS out of a total of 1498 starts, or roughly 10.5% of his stars were D zone face offs. If he had 15 fewer DZS and 10 more OZS the whole year his OZS% would have been 55%. That is one more OZ faceoff every 10 games and one less DZ faceoff every 5 games. The impact on GF or GA would likely be minimal and possibly 0.

The reality is that many "defensive defensemen" are actually more poor offensive defenseman than they are strong defensively. A guy like Ekholm is better defensively than Desharnais but if you want to score you put Ekholm on the ice in situations where it is advantageous for your offense. THis is why in a crucial faceoff you use your best faceoff man even though the real world difference between a guy who has a 55% FO% and one who has a 45% FO% might be only 2 goals in a year. As far as starts go this still pales in terms of real outcomes to the impact an Eholm can have overall regardless of how he starts on the ice.

What really impacts the difficulty of deployment is who a defenseman plays against. A defensive zone FO vs three fourth line plugs is not a tougher assignment than starting in the offensive zone vs MacKinnon.

	MacKinnon	Eichel	Kopitar
Bouchard	18:04	13:16	19:04
Ekholm	18:42	12:31	22:20
Nurse	17:40	6:31	23:03
Ceci	10:46	6:43	24:25
Kulak	11:39	6:58	11:28
Desharnais	10:43	7:28	9:40

I picked three top Western centers and looked at TOI for various defensemen. While it is not universally true that Ekholm and Bouchard will play more minutes vs the top dogs on the other teams in any individual game or even over a season. (For example Toronto worked to get Matthews against Nurse and Ceci more so than Bouchard Ekholm), there is no question that Bouchard and Ekholm have tougher overall opposition right now than Nurse and Ceci and that their results against those players are much better. And yes this is true even away from McDavid.

I have said this before, that I actually think Ceci earns his pay. But right now he is struggling to play in the #4 spot on a contender. That said he is probably still the best option the team has at this minute in time.

I fully endorse keeping ceci and hope to see him flourish with a year of a new coach and systems.

 

[SupremeTeam16]

If I was Oilers management, for the next few years I would let every Blue RFA know that if STL is playing hardball with them then we'll offer them a fair contract. You offer them enough that it makes STL uncomfortable but not to much that STL doesn't match. You keep doing this and you mess up their cap over the long term.

I think while Edmonton was the victim of Armstrongs scheme, there are going to be a lot of GM’s upset with him. The whole reason why there was the unwritten understanding that you don’t offer sheet other teams rfa’s is because it would give player agents leverage in non-arb rfa negotiations which would inevitably drive up prices for everyone on this player group. Often players in this group are higher draft picks that you’ve spent considerable development on that maybe has shown flashes but there isn’t enough of a track record to warrant gambling limited cap soace on but also you don’t want to risk losing them for next to nothing on an offer sheet so your forced to overpay young players who are still question marks.

If other GM’s break from convention as Armstrong and offersheets become more common practice it gives player agents a ton of leverage, why would they ever sign an extension coming off their elc before July 1 now that offer sheets are accepted practice and they can shop around and find another GM to give you leverage. For the agents they don’t even need an offer sheet tendered, now that they’ve become a legitimate threat it puts pressure on all GM’s to overpay young players who are still question marks or risk losing a player who’ve invested a likely high pick and development time into.

 

[Jimmi McJenkins]

I fully endorse keeping ceci and hope to see him flourish with a year of a new coach and systems.

You're wrong though, moving on from Ceci should be the goal of this team. He played under the new system, we was terrible.


The Oilers should waive Ceci and see if there are any bites.

 

[McTonyBrar]

Well Friedman confirmed it on Oilers Now. Broberg wanted out because of how he was mishandled. I will fully blame Woodcroft and Manson for this. They made him a 7th D, played him 2 minutes a night and look at what happened.

Coffey and Knoblauch actually did so good with him. But the kid decided to leave. I won't blame him. I would've left and gone for the money too

My favourite prospect is bailing.

Broberg - Parayko

I'm going to puke

 

[McHelpus]

I fully endorse keeping ceci and hope to see him flourish with a year of a new coach and systems.

Why are you acting like Ceci is 23 years old?

 

[Stud Muffin]

Super duper dumb question but could we match both, put them on waivers and have a side deal with San Jose to pick them up? I gotta assume that the league would say we circumvented something.

 

[Inf123]

Super duper dumb question but could we match both, put them on waivers and have a side deal with San Jose to pick them up? I gotta assume that the league would say we circumvented something.

can't be traded for 1 year

 

[TopShelfGloveSide]

can't be traded for 1 year

Waive. Not trade.

 

[gordonhught]

can't be traded for 1 year

Waivers is not trade.

edit

 

[McJadeddog]

The Oilers aren’t giving up 1st/2nd round picks to drop Ceci and Kulak, just so they can overpay Broberg.

Yeah, that is laughably wrong. Maybe teams are asking, I suppose that could be true, even though it seems very unlikely as they are both fairly paid legit NHL players (especially Kulak). But if it is true, and again, I don't think it is, the Oilers laugh, and just let Broberg walk. Which is what the best move is anyhow truthfully.

 

[Oilhawks]

One year of Ceci costing a 1st to move sounds like bullshit to me.

 

[Jimmi McJenkins]

One year of Ceci costing a 1st to move sounds like bullshit to me.

Sure, but if you're another team, are you going to take him for free?

 

[Oilhawks]

Sure, but if you're another team, are you going to take him for free?

Considering the absolute plugs that got paid and got term a month ago, why not? And I’m not a fan of the player.

 

[Reasonable Oil Fan]

Considering the latest rumours that suggest the offer sheets don’t happen if he isn’t in charge, it appears that he has made his mark already